Loading...
6. TKDA Memo-Metro Council Demographic Forecasts for 2040 �• 444 Cedar Street,Suite 1500 ' Saint Paul,MN 55101 651.292.4400 � tkda.com TKDA Memorandum To: Kristina Handt, Scandia City Reference: Metro Council Demographic Administrator Forecasts for 2040 Copies To: Project No.: 15254.000 From: Sherri Buss, RLA AICP, Routing: Planner Date: September 24, 2013 The Metropolitan Council staff announced at the Midwest Planning Conference last week that they have published the forecast numbers for population, households and employment for the year 2040 for each of the communities in the Metro Area. This is one of the first steps in the Comprehensive Plan update cycle. Cities need to use the Metro Council forecast numbers in their plans, or provide an analysis of why they believe the Council's forecasts are not accurate, and convince the Council to accept a different number. The Scandia forecast numbers for 2040 are as follows: Population 4,900 Households 2,240 Employment 780 10 vears aqo, the Council forecast the followinq numbers for Scandia for 2030: Population 5,400 Households 2,100 Employment 610 The Council staff indicated that they have reduced the population forecast for most communities outside the Center Cities and first ring suburbs from the 2030 forecast for the 2040 forecast. They believe that population growth outside the central communities has slowed during the recession, and that this trend will continue. They also believe that the trend to smaller households will continue. Council staff mentioned that their system plan for the Regional Wastewater System will include less on outward expansion of the system and more emphasis on redevelopment and making maximum use of the existing system within developed areas of the region. An employee owned company promoting affirmative action and equal opportunity Metro Council Forecasts Page 2 September 24, 2013 The System Plans for the regional systems should be complete by 2014, and the System Statements for each community should be out in 2015. Feel free to share the numbers with the Planning Commission, Council and EDA. 1 Page 1 of 1 WHERE WILL THE GROWTH GO? Ten years ago,the Met Council foresaw household growth being concentrated in developing suburbs.Now it forecasts a decided shift toward the core of the metro area. Household growth, Household growth, 2000 to 2030, 2010 to 2040, (as projected in 2003) �as projected in 2013) Developing „/� o /�y►o �' � suburbs � y�' V O /d '..s� �.�. ♦ ,,.. �V /� �,."ya "'kY", _.::�.ri".�,,,.'..ac4 'w�.!,� . ..�am..r� " � ': : � .ss ..� +Wn�� �. T.. .. .i^-:.. .. '*��.i .x.M ��. j�it�� a`_.. +a>^.;y; �-a- '•-m�,. W... �. n.�ssr.'�e'^'�eu^� :.-.rr"r:. . .. �.,-._ _ .._� -�,,...._._� ..s�..�...-�-. �. � .'— .. _ > .�. . .� . .� �_ ` " �,�y . .�" .�.._...� ._ . _ _ ,_ r � A - __ _ � _ .. �.. --�- - -„-� -�c-- -��..� a�.R.,� . � ._.y ;e ._.. _: � .eb-....r.a... .....u... -.�.e.�_ y-.r;+. '�,al.°`!a o`i�...��...�............r�- �`` _�,' ._ , ....,.�_ ..�.. »..s�,:..�......_�.,.r,.,,,,c .� r^a� . �--�:.+-'—"- . r�a.Y.�._. w. . ..., ��._ ,......... . r..� ,.►. r �. . . .._ � ,�„ ."` `�"^- „. � � � .,.. ,. �.._.«�.... �.► ._....._a...,�... -!^g^, - .r+-:.._....a.�.�,�`s��d s- w'� -.� ..w e _—--+Q¢�- ,�.,. � a�s „�, . � « _..�- �- +..3,.s -_ , ''� ..m+'.w...�._....��`.>"�'•-..:...erc..v:rF ""�' . � i""n".`�s.s""„^,o .. .�, „„.�r:.'..�� 'r"��:. :..is sa...-�s.�a...�.w.�. �".iV�. . �'. . .a. �'�"�� .. `� y K.�b .tiAR r,J"'y v,'.-� .. ."'x � '•�y'",r �" �.'.Y'�.T,«=i4"i.:'Mfv..�1�+ •.ufr�..�"�I�lil� � � �":. � � . �. u .n+�+�...r. ro5`urr...-. >w".:�S..s,.'kwW�..O4�...�.,.,.BirP .... .. ......_. _ _ .�.� �. . ,9R w.n .. ' : ��..-'�'s�"`�St iNli� �_. .. .. �w �5�. +r+�r.w � � �, ,+Y..+t . _.y.. ...�. .�: � � � ��, +55%�.� �.� _ _ � :� : � � .......�: �:�.�.��::...._ . �.-� � �..�.,, -".....� �..�• .�., � ...r. .� �.. ��..�,..�...�► ., .�.� .;' r _�x� .,�,..� �...�r`�,._ , •� -�--.,,,,.,,e.,,,,.,_... �,�. ; --"` _- __::..__�'-.,,a:.""'_':,"r�, `�.ae^ �.rm��..r-�•a.,.w�r.--"-,...�,e `�,--�-1.�.-.—�.n��..;� ry.�:�.�,�'.���=w-�f ��� � � ...� .. . , ���/_ , ..a JIG:'y.'.y�"'+�.-+�+�^t"ns� .:. w+....� "�,'\.!u . r'."�_.�i�"^�,�:�x.►..-.r��� 1E...'-.:..�°'�^�tal�'.Y,Y . . ........�- ._ ...�r...• . .�_ ' ..��.�.m . � � .� - ar..v ar�. C .,�„�.. .�� ...�_�.._,+.s.,-� —'1 � .. F �= � � ""'y"�_����•e�.a� wnv �. 4n . ..... �- 's .. �. M.,.�s+�-��.w�.�.r.....'�f,�..�� ._. i'�aCi��....J Developed area �.�- _ - -�-�-� , �� ,�;,�:-�y-;.�� (centxal cities � ,�,tl... .w..._ �',�30%.�.�.�..�,.�.�..- �,.......�� L,� _.����--�- � ..,...r..... .a. _..,�__._. -..t ....�_. , �. ,�,...:'-� .� ;�.�.���,�--. , �...� ,.�,�:.�u-_���� >,� ...,a. �-:--�_.:�, �.,�«,�.. ...,.,.,...� ��- ,.�.-:�-.� .�..s.�:�,.�.,...,,�...., ,.- �- ��..��. i.nner suburbs) ..�,`�,.°'".,�,,..�..�..:� �;- � ........ .,. � ,�,-�.,�.�»�...�;,.-��., -,�: -;; � b. �...>,A �.. , •�-.,n-,.�,.:. - �-�:.��,. ���,� � ,�-� _ ......_. �:.�-, � _-n. .�..�.�„�� �� -�. _�; w �... __,, �.�.."-.�'.--�...�.- � .,.� .il � ,.p�« , _.. _ __ _ �.,. ,. �.�,��. � �-. �,�..r.:��,�-.�:�.,_. .�: �,. - ...�._� ,-W�:�.�--�,.. _, _ -a �� r--� • . ,...._. .�' ._ � -,�-,. - r .'�..r..�.a:_...,a.-. ��- _�-•� �� � � ...........�,�, -�,w.-,�..,.:�.---�,;.::; _.:� -�..,��,.-�.�-»�--. :�.....-� ,_._.._�.x� -.�_� _ �.-„„�...--.,�....;.,_„ C.�-.�.._�..�--�.,e..,,-!._,,.,..�.�, „w,�,3•.,y-- . ,_._ ,,,. „�,,._.._._�. _ y �._�--- --- ,,,,;- � �,,....�e�ws►•+-+m�wrery!.r-h-.�,.�-�+'.r�� ;i�....�, c.-�,a..-,.�-.-.: � ,.�-....+'"'� � "i .....�".«s�^---_'..'_';`�e�.i�.,a�"'-� G-..-a::'-`._.._�.� _'--a�`.aW.d..+w.��w.�...�a,» �a..•-:�rw.== .��.� _�.. �� �...awr..- .. ..z._— . ' _ _ _:''9C"r': Rural areas 10% -- 9% http://strnedia.startribtme.com/images/ZChart092913.jpg 9/30/20l 3