6.b SUPPORTING DOC 2017 Comprehensive Housing Needs Assessment
Update of Comprehensive Housing Needs
For Washington County, Minnesota
Prepared For:
Washington County CDA
Woodbury, MN
March 2017
7575 Golden Valley Road
Suite 385
Minneapolis, MN 55427
612.338.0012
www.maxfieldresearch.com
612‐338‐0012 (fax) 612‐904‐7979
7575 Golden Valley Road, Suite 385, Golden Valley, MN 55427
www.maxfieldresearch.com
March 3, 2017
Mr. Bill Lightner,
Project Manager
Washington County Community Development Agency
7645 Currell Boulevard
Woodbury, MN 55125
Dear Mr. Lightner:
Attached is the update of the Comprehensive Housing Needs Assessment for Washington
County, Minnesota conducted by Maxfield Research and Consulting. The analysis projects
housing demand for the submarkets in Washington County from 2017 to 2030. It also provides
recommendations on the amount and types of housing that could be built to satisfy demand
from current and future residents over the next decade and beyond.
The Comprehensive Housing Needs Assessment finds the rental market in Washington County
is tight with a vacancy rate of 2.3% and the for‐sale market home prices are increasing after a
number of years of limited development due to the Recession. Housing affordability for owned
housing and for rental housing continues to decrease for many owner and renter households in
Washington County. Older rental properties are increasing rents by between 4.0% to 5.0%
annually while new properties in Woodbury are experiencing some softness.
The study identifies a potential demand for 25,922 new housing units in Washington County to
2030. Demand will be spread across all product types; including 13,166 for‐sale units, 4,841
general‐occupancy rental units and 7,915 senior units. Detailed information regarding housing
demand by submarket and recommended housing types can be found in the Conclusions and
Recommendations section at the end of the report.
We have enjoyed the opportunity to be able to assist you as you consider housing needs and
specific initiatives for Washington County. If you need additional information, please contact
us.
Sincerely,
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC
Mary C. Bujold
President
Attachment
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .......................................................................................................... 1
PURPOSE AND SCOPE OF STUDY .......................................................................................... 6
Study Impetus ................................................................................................................... 6
Scope of Work ................................................................................................................... 6
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS ..................................................................................................... 8
Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 8
Market Area Definition ..................................................................................................... 8
Population and Household Growth from 1980 to 2010 ................................................... 8
Population and Household Growth Estimates and Projections ........................................ 11
Household Size .................................................................................................................. 17
Age Distribution Trends .................................................................................................... 18
Race and Ethnicity ............................................................................................................. 25
Household Income by Age of Householder ...................................................................... 28
Tenure by Age of Householder ......................................................................................... 32
Tenure by Household Income ........................................................................................... 38
Tenure by Household Size ................................................................................................. 40
Household Type ................................................................................................................ 40
Public School Enrollment Trends ...................................................................................... 44
Net Worth ......................................................................................................................... 45
Summary of Demographic Trends .................................................................................... 46
EMPLOYMENT ....................................................................................................................... 49
Employment Trends .......................................................................................................... 49
Employment Growth and Projections ............................................................................... 49
Resident Labor Force ........................................................................................................ 52
Covered Employment by Industry .................................................................................... 53
Commuting Patterns ......................................................................................................... 78
Inflow/Outflow .................................................................................................................. 81
Worker Profile Comparison .............................................................................................. 82
Existing Business Mix by Industry Sectors ........................................................................ 85
Major Employers ............................................................................................................... 86
Employment Summary ...................................................................................................... 87
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS ......................................................................................... 89
Introduction .................................................................................................................... 89
Residential Construction Trends 2000 to Present .......................................................... 89
American Community Survey .......................................................................................... 93
Housing Units by Occupancy Status & Tenure ................................................................ 94
Age of Housing Stock....................................................................................................... 97
Housing Units by Structure and Occupancy .................................................................... 99
Owner‐Occupied Housing Units by Mortgage Status ..................................................... 99
Owner‐Occupied Housing Units by Value ....................................................................... 102
Renter‐Occupied Units by Contract Rent ........................................................................ 102
Mobility in the Past Year ................................................................................................. 106
FOR‐SALE MARKET ANALYSIS ....................................................................................... 108
Introduction .................................................................................................................... 108
Home Resale Comparison in Twin Cities Metro Area ..................................................... 108
Home Resale Comparison in Washington County .......................................................... 110
Current Supply of Homes on the Market ........................................................................ 121
Lender‐Mediated Properties ........................................................................................... 129
New Construction Housing Activity ................................................................................ 135
New Construction ........................................................................................................... 153
RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS .......................................................................................... 162
Introduction .................................................................................................................... 162
Rental Market Overview ................................................................................................. 162
General‐Occupancy Rental Projects ................................................................................ 167
Housing Choice Vouchers ................................................................................................ 188
SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS ......................................................................................... 190
Senior Housing Defined ................................................................................................... 190
Senior Housing in Washington County ........................................................................... 191
PLANNED AND PROPOSED RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENTS ............................................ 211
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
HOUSING AFFORDABILITY ............................................................................................ 213
Introduction .................................................................................................................... 213
Rent and Income Limits ................................................................................................... 213
Housing Cost Burden ....................................................................................................... 216
Housing Choice Vouchers ................................................................................................ 221
Housing Cost as a Percentage of Income ........................................................................ 221
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS ...................................................................................... 224
Introduction .................................................................................................................... 224
Demographic Profile and Housing Demand .................................................................... 224
Housing Demand Overview ............................................................................................. 225
For‐Sale Housing Market Demand Analysis .................................................................... 229
Rental Housing Demand Analysis.................................................................................... 234
Senior Housing Demand Analysis .................................................................................... 238
DEMAND SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS ......................................................... 255
Washington County Demand Summary .......................................................................... 255
Comparison between 2013 Housing Study and 2017 Housing Study ............................ 262
5 Northeast Recommendations ......................................................................................... 264
Stillwater Recommendations .......................................................................................... 266
Southeast Recommendations ......................................................................................... 268
Forest Lake Recommendations ....................................................................................... 270
Hugo Recommendations ................................................................................................. 272
Mahtomedi Recommendations ...................................................................................... 274
Oakdale Recommendations ............................................................................................ 276
Lake Elmo Recommendations ......................................................................................... 278
Woodbury Recommendations ........................................................................................ 280
Cottage Grove Recommendations .................................................................................. 282
APPENDIX ..................................................................................................................... 284
Definitions ....................................................................................................................... 285
MAPS
Page
Washington County Submarkets ........................................................................................... 7
Population Change, 2015‐2030 ............................................................................................. 15
Household Change, 2015‐2030 .............................................................................................. 16
Median Household Income, 2016 .......................................................................................... 31
Rental Tenure, 2015 ............................................................................................................... 36
Owner Tenure, 2015 .............................................................................................................. 37
Employment Growth, 2010‐2030 .......................................................................................... 51
Average Annual Building Permits, 2005‐2016 ....................................................................... 92
Median Contract Rent ............................................................................................................ 105
Affordable/Subsidized Rental Housing Units, 2016 ............................................................... 181
Market Rate Rental Housing Units, 2016 .............................................................................. 185
Senior Housing Units, 2016 .................................................................................................... 206
LIST OF TABLES
Table Number and Title Page
D1. Historic Population and Household Growth Trends, Wash. Co., 1980‐2010 ............... 9
D2. Population and Household Growth Trends and Projections, Wash. Co. 2010‐2030 ... 12
D3. Average Household Size, Washington County, 2000‐2030 .......................................... 17
D4. Population Age Distribution, Washington County, 2000 to 2021 ................................ 22
D5. Race, Washington County, 2010 & 2014 ...................................................................... 26
D6. Ethnicity, Washington County, 2010 & 2014 ................................................................ 27
D7. Household Income by Age of Householder, Washington Co. 2016 and 2021 ............. 29
D8. Household Tenure, Washington County, 2010 and 2014 ............................................. 33
D9. Tenure by Age of Householder, Washington County, 2014 ......................................... 34
D10. Tenure by Household Income, Primary Market Area, 2014 ......................................... 39
D11. Household Size by Tenure, Washington County, 2014 ................................................. 41
D12. Household Type, Washington County, 2010 and 2014 ................................................ 43
D13. Public School Enrollment Trends, Washington Co., 2010 through 2016 ..................... 44
D14. Estimated Net Worth by Age of Householder, Washington Co., 2016 ........................ 47
D15. Demographic Summary, Washington Co. and Other Metro Area Counties................. 48
E1. Employment Growth Trends and Projections, Washington Co., 2010‐2030 ............... 50
E2. Resident Employment (Annual Average), Washington Co., 2000 through 2016 (3Q) . 53
E3. Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, Washington Co., 2014 and 2015 ........ 54
E4. Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, Northeast ............................................ 57
E5. Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, Stillwater ............................................. 59
E6. Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, Southeast ............................................ 61
E7. Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, Forest Lake ......................................... 63
E8. Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, Hugo ................................................... 65
E9. Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, Mahtomedi ......................................... 67
E10. Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, Oakdale ............................................... 69
E11. Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, Lake Elmo ............................................ 71
E12. Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, Woodbury ........................................... 74
E13. Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, Cottage Grove ..................................... 76
E14. Commuting Patterns, Washington County by City, 2014 ............................................. 79
E15. Commuting Patterns, Washington County by County, 2014 ........................................ 80
E16. Commuting Inflow/Outflow, Washington County, 2014 .............................................. 81
E17. Employment Resident Profile, Washington County, 2014 ........................................... 83
E18. Worker Profile, Washington County, 2014 ................................................................... 84
E19. Business Summary by NAICS Code, Washington County, 2015 & 1Q 2016 ................. 85
E20. Major Employers, Washington Co., 2015 ..................................................................... 86
E21. Employment Summary, Washington County Compared to Other Metro Area Counties,
2014 .............................................................................................................................. 88
LIST OF TABLES
Table Number and Title Page
HC‐1. Annual Residential Building Activity, Units Permitted, Washington Co., 2005‐2016 91
HC‐2. Housing Units by Occupancy Status and Tenure, Washington Co., 2010 & 2015 . 95
HC‐3. Vacancy Status, Washington Co., 2015 .................................................................. 96
HC‐4. Age of Housing Stock, Washington Co., 2015 ........................................................ 98
HC‐5. Housing Units by Tenure, Washington County, 2015 ............................................ 100
HC‐6. Owner Occupied Units by Mortgage Status, Washington County, 2015 ............... 101
HC‐7. Owner Occupied Units by Value, Washington County, 2015 ................................. 103
HC‐8. Renter Occupied Units by Contract Rent, Washington County, 2015 ................... 104
HC‐9. Mobility in the Past Year by Age for Current Residence, Washington Co, 2015 ... 107
FS1. Median Resale Comparison by Metro Area County, 2012 to 2016 ......................... 108
FS2. Resale Comparison, Metro Area by County, 2016................................................... 109
FS3. Single‐Family Home Resales, Washington County, 2000, 2005, 2010 to 2016 ....... 112
FS4. Multifamily Home Resales, Washington County, 2000, 2005, 2010 to 2016 .......... 117
FS5. Resale Type, Washington County, 2016 .................................................................. 120
FS6. Homes Currently Listed For‐Sale, Washington County, January 2017 .................... 122
FS7. Active Listings by Type and Submarket, Washington County, January 2017 .......... 125
FS8. Active Listings by Housing Type, East vs. West Submarkets, January 2017 ............ 127
FS9. Lender‐Mediated Real Estate Activity, Washington Co. Comparison, 2014‐2016 .. 130
FS10. Lender‐Mediated Real Estate Activity, Washington Co. Comparison, 2014‐2016 .. 133
FS11. New Construction Housing Activity Statistics, Washington Co., 2012 & 2016........ 137
FS12. Summary of Actively Marketing Subdivisions, Washington Co., 4Q 2016 .............. 139
FS13. Subdivsion & Lot Inventory – Detached Housing Units, Washington Co., 4Q 2016 144
FS14. Active Subdivsions – Attached Housing Units, Washington Co., 4Q 2016 .............. 149
FS15. Summary of Future Lots, Washington County, 4Q 2016 ......................................... 151
FS16. Summary of New Construction Marketing on MLS, Washington Co. East vs. West
Submarkets, Homes Constructed 2013 ‐ 2016 ........................................................ 154
FS17. Summary of New Construction Marketing on MLS, Metro Area Counties, Homes
Constructed, 2013 ‐ 2016......................................................................................... 155
FS18. Lot Size Analysis, Washington Co., and Metro Area, 4Q 2016 ................................ 158
FS19. New Construction by Price Point, Washington Co., 4Q 2016 .................................. 161
R‐1. Average Rents/Vacancies Trends, Washington County, 4th Q 2015 & 2016 .......... 163
R‐2. Bedrooms by Gross Rent, Rent Occupied Housing Units, Washington County,
2015 ........................................................................................................................ 166
R‐3. Rent Summary, Washington County Surveyed Market Rate Rental Developments,
January 2017 .......................................................................................................... 169
R‐4. Summary of General Occupancy Rental Project Inventories by Submarket,
Washington County, January 2017 ........................................................................ 170
R‐5. Market Rate General Occupancy Rental Projects, Washington Co. Jan. 2017 ...... 171
R‐6. Affordable/Subsidized General Occupancy Rental Projects, Washington Co. ....... 177
LIST OF TABLES
Table Number and Title Page
R‐7. Common Area Features/Amenities, Existing Rental Projects, Washington County,
January 2017 .......................................................................................................... 182
R‐8. MHFA/HUD Income and Rent Limits, Washington Co., 2016 ................................ 188
R‐9. Unit Months Leased, CDA Owned Vouchers, 2016 ................................................ 189
S‐1. Unit Mix/Size/Cost & Occupancy Comparison, Market Rate Senior Housing
Developments, Washington County, January 2017 ............................................... 195
S‐2. Services Comparison, Competitive Senior Projects, Washington County,
Jan. 2017 ................................................................................................................. 199
S‐3. Amenity Comparison, Senior Projects, Washington County, Jan. 2017 ................ 202
S‐4. Unit Mix/Size/Cost & Occupancy Comparison, Affordable/Subsidized Senior Rental
Developments, Washington County, Jan. 2017 ..................................................... 208
S‐5. Senior Housing Summary by Washington County Submarket, Jan. 2017 .............. 209
P‐1. Development Pipeline, Washington County, January 2017 ................................... 212
HA‐1. MHFA/HUD Income and Rent Limits, Washington County, 2016 .......................... 214
HA‐2. Maximum Rent Based on Household Size and AMI, Washington County, 2016 ... 215
HA‐3. Housing Cost Burden, Washington County, 2016 .................................................. 217
HA‐4. Housing Affordability by Income, Washington Co., 2016 ...................................... 223
DMD‐1. Demand for Additional For‐Sale Housing, Washington County, 2016 to 2020 ..... 232
DMD‐2. Demand for Additional For‐Sale Housing, Washington County, 2020 to 2030 ..... 233
DMD‐3. Demand for Additional Rental Housing, Washington County, 2016 to 2020 ........ 236
DMD‐4. Demand for Additional Rental Housing, Washington County, 2020 to 2030 ........ 237
DMD‐5. Demand for Market Rate Active Adult Rental Housing, Washington County,
2016 to 2030 ........................................................................................................... 240
DMD‐6. Demand for Affordable/Subsidized Senior Housing, Washington County,
2016 to 2030 ........................................................................................................... 243
DMD‐7. Demand for Congregate Rental Housing, Washington County, 2016 to 2030 ...... 248
DMD‐8. Demand for Assisted Living Rental Housing, Washington County, 2016 to 2030 . 249
DMD‐9. Demand for Memory Care Rental Housing, Washington County, 2016 to 2030 ... 252
DMD‐10. General Occupancy Excess Demand Summary, Washington County, 2016 to 2030 257
DMD‐11. Senior Excess Demand Summary, Washington County, 2016 to 2030 .................. 258
DMD‐12. Community Demand for Aggregate Submarkets by Housing Product Type,’16‐‘20 259
DMD‐13. Community Demand for Aggregate Submarkets by Housing Product Type, ’20‐’30 260
DMD‐14. Difference in Demand from 2013 Study and 2017 Study, Washington County .... 263
KEY FINDINGS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 1
This section highlights key findings from the Comprehensive Housing Needs Assessment com‐
pleted for the Washington County Community Development Agency. Calculations of projected
housing demand are provided to 2030 and recommendations for housing products to meet
demand over the short‐term are found at the end of the report.
Key Findings
1. Growth continues to be robust in Washington County and throughout the Twin Cities
Metro Area as employment growth has been strong and the unemployment rate has
dropped substantially. The Twin Cities Metro Area is now considered to be at less than
full employment, resulting in worker shortages in some industry segments. Limited de‐
velopment of new rental housing in all submarkets except Woodbury, has resulted in
vacancy rates that continue to decline while rental rates continue to increase, especially
for older market rate housing which has been some of the most affordable rental hous‐
ing in the county.
2. Housing Demand
a. General occupancy demand is projected for an estimated 13,166 owned housing
units and 4,841 rental units between 2016 and 2030.
b. Approximately 73% of the general occupancy demand is projected to be for
owned housing and 27% for rental housing.
i. 2016‐2020 = 6,862 (70% owned, 30% rental)
ii. 2020‐2030 = 11,144 (75% owned, 25% rental)
c. Owned housing demand by submarket for 2016 to 2030 by housing product:
Single‐Family
i. Northeast 452 units (5.0%)
ii. Stillwater 475 units (5.4%)
iii. Southeast 178 units (2.0%)
iv. Forest Lake 1,106 units (12.5%)
v. Hugo 1,920 units (21.7%)
vi. Mahtomedi 46 units (0.5%)
vii. Oakdale 41 units (0.5%)
viii. Lake Elmo 1,169 units (13.2%)
ix. Woodbury 1,731 units (19.5%)
x. Cottage Grove 1,744 units (19.7%)
KEY FINDINGS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 2
Multifamily
i. Northeast 41 units (1.0%)
ii. Stillwater 285 units (6.6%)
iii. Southeast 26 units (0.6%)
iv. Forest Lake 547 units (12.7%)
v. Hugo 640 units (14.9%)
vi. Mahtomedi 27 units (0.6%)
vii. Oakdale 198 units (4.6%)
viii. Lake Elmo 263 units (6.1%)
ix. Woodbury 1,193 units (27.7%)
x. Cottage Grove 1,084 units (25.2%)
d. Of the 4,841 rental units, 56% will be for market rate units, 23% for affordable
units and 21% for subsidized units.
i. Market Rate = 2,723 units (56.2%)
ii. Affordable = 1,096 units (22.7%)
iii. Subsidized = 1,022 units (21.1%)
e. There is also demand for 7,915 senior housing units by 2030. Senior housing
demand is in addition to general occupancy demand.
i. Affordable = 220 units (2.7%)
ii. Subsidized = 218 units (2.6%)
iii. MR Active Adult = 2,633 units (32.6%)
iv. MR Congregate = 652 units (8.8%)
v. MR Assisted Living = 3,296 units (41.8%)
vi. MR Memory Care = 896 units (11.5%)
f. Rental Housing demand from 2016 to 2030 by submarket:
i. Northeast = 64 units (1.3%)
ii. Stillwater = 570 units (11.8%)
iii. Southeast = 38 units (0.8%)
iv. Forest Lake = 849 units (17.6%)
v. Hugo = 316 units (6.5%)
vi. Mahtomedi = 27 units (0.6%)
vii. Oakdale = 536 units (11.1%)
viii. Lake Elmo = 152 units (3.1%)
ix. Woodbury = 1,664 units (34.4%)
x. Cottage Grove = 625 units (12.9%)
KEY FINDINGS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 3
3. The submarkets are divided between East and West Washington County. The East con‐
sists of the Northeast, Stillwater, and Southeast submarkets while Forest Lake, Hugo,
Mahtomedi, Oakdale, Lake Elmo, Woodbury, and Cottage Grove comprised the West.
The East submarket consists of higher priced single‐family homes (median resale price in
2016 was $342,250 compared to $299,000 in the West) and fewer rental units (only 9%
of all units in the county). Higher priced homes in the East submarket are mostly at‐
tributed to the close proximity to the St. Croix River.
4. Development of and enhancement of public transportation systems in Washington
County continue to move forward. A Request for Proposals was recently issued for The
Gateway Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) line for station area planning and market analysis. Ap‐
proximately 11 stations will be analyzed through this study with a budget of $1.0 mil‐
lion. Both the Gateway and Red Rock Corridors have the potential to attract new
households through new transit‐oriented development. Development of major transit
corridors could increase growth beyond current forecasts and additional transportation
options will improve access to job opportunities for low‐ and moderate‐income house‐
holds.
5. Washington County is a jobs exporter as the ratio of employed residents to jobs is 0.58.
Many residents commute from Washington County to jobs in Ramsey or Hennepin
County for higher‐paying jobs. Although the median household income in Washington
County was $85,126 in 2016, the average wage was $45,084 (2016 annual) for jobs lo‐
cated in the county. As a result, many Washington County workers cannot afford mar‐
ket rate housing in Washington County unless they have two or more incomes in the
household. For example, a household would need to earn $53,560 to be able to afford
the average two‐bedroom monthly rent of $1,339. The addition of more affordable
housing would make it easier for workers to live closer to their place of employment.
From an employer’s perspective, it makes it easier – and less costly – to recruit and re‐
tain employees when affordable housing is available.
6. Washington County renter‐occupied households tend to be more housing cost‐
burdened than owner‐occupied households. Housing costs are generally considered af‐
fordable at 30% of a household’s adjusted gross income. Based on a new construction
entry‐level home priced at $250,000, 71% of all owner‐occupied households in Washing‐
ton County would be estimated to be able to afford this home. Based on a new rental
construction one‐bedroom unit priced at $1,200 per month, 45.3% of renter households
in Washington County would be able to afford this rental amount. An estimated 44% of
all renter households pay 30% or more of their income for rent. In addition, 76% of all
renter households with incomes at or less than $35,000 are cost‐burdened, paying 30%
or more of their income for rent.
KEY FINDINGS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 4
7. Washington County needs to increase the production of affordable housing. An average
of 62 units have been built since 1970 (there are currently 3,324 project‐based afforda‐
ble units). From 2016 to 2030, on average, 142 affordable/subsidized units are needed
annually to meet demand to 2030. Averaging the historic production (62 annual units)
with the projected demand (142 units) results in a blended average demand of 102 af‐
fordable/subsidized units annually. Maxfield Research recommends establishing a goal
of 100 to 150 units annually to meet the growing need over the next decade and a half.
In order to satisfy this need, public and private sector efforts will be necessary.
8. Communities in Washington County are now seeing more new subdivisions to meet the
increasing demand for for‐sale housing. In some submarkets, there remains a need to
plat additional lots to meet demand in the short‐term (2016 to 2020) in order to have a
sufficient lot supply available. In certain categories, such as townhomes and small lot
single‐family development, demand has increased, but builders have not been stepping
forward to meet this demand. Some of the issue is density and land costs, but develop‐
ers focused initially on trying to satisfy pent‐up demand for move‐up housing that has
been occurring over the past three to four years. Moving forward, alternate products to
the traditional single‐family home will be needed to encourage entry‐level buyers to
purchase.
9. The aging baby boomer generation is substantially impacting the composition of Wash‐
ington County’s population. This demographic is projected to have the highest growth
and will be aging into their young senior years later this decade. This shift will result in
demand for alternative housing products such as association‐maintained villa product
and twinhomes. At the same time household sizes are shrinking while non‐family
households are increasing. This shift is expected to continue due to changing de‐
mographics (i.e. delayed marriages, fewer children, aging of the population, etc.)
10. Rental vacancy rates have hit new lows in some communities and tightening vacancies
and increasing rents have resulted in low‐ and moderate‐income households experienc‐
ing greater challenges to secure affordable housing.
11. Development of market rate rental housing has been generally limited in suburban loca‐
tions as the recovery has ensued. Developers have continued to focus on inner‐city and
urban core locations where households have been willing to pay higher rents for new
apartments. Most of the new rental development has been focused in Woodbury. Low
vacancy rates indicate that continued pent‐up demand exists for additional market rate
rental units across the county. New market rate move‐up apartments are needed
among renter households, opening up more affordable units to low‐ and moderate‐
income households.
KEY FINDINGS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 5
12. According to the Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors, which monitors the majority
of home sales in the Twin Cities Metro Area, the median resale price in 2016 was
$233,250, up 36% from 2012. Washington County posted the third highest median re‐
sale price in 2016 ($247,600), behind Carver County at $262,500 and Scott County at
$252,000. The number of lender‐mediated properties has now decreased to levels that
were present pre‐Recession. Market times for existing homes continue to post new
lows in the Twin Cities Metro Area and entry‐level for‐sale homes are often in bidding
wars. New construction pricing is typically in the mid‐$400,000s and above in the Metro
Area and in Washington County.
PURPOSE AND SCOPE OF STUDY
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 6
Study Impetus
Maxfield Research was engaged by the Washington County Community Development Agency
(Washington County CDA) to conduct an update of the Comprehensive Housing Needs Assess‐
ment for Washington County. This housing needs assessment updates previous assessments
completed by Maxfield Research in 2001, 2007, and 2013 for Washington County.
The comprehensive housing needs assessment calculates demand from 2016 to 2030 for
various types of housing in each defined “Market Area” in the county. The study provides
recommendations on the amount and types of housing that should be developed to accommo‐
date the housing needs of new and existing households.
Scope of Work
The scope of this study includes:
an analysis of the demographic growth trends and characteristics of the county to 2030;
an assessment of current housing characteristics in the county;
an analysis of the for‐sale housing market in the county;
an analysis of the rental housing market in the county;
an analysis of the senior housing market in the county;
an estimate of the demand for all types of housing in the county from 2016 to 2030; and
recommendations of appropriate housing concepts to meet current and future needs of
county residents.
The report contains primary and secondary research. Primary research includes interviews with
rental property managers and owners, developers, City staff and others involved in the housing
market in Washington County. All of the market data on existing and pending housing devel‐
opments was collected by Maxfield Research and is accurate to the best of our knowledge.
Secondary data, such as U.S. Census, is credited to the source, and is used as a basis for analy‐
sis.
Data was collected and analyzed for 10 defined “Market Areas” in the county. A map on the
following page shows these Market Areas.
PURPOSE AND SCOPE OF STUDY
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 7
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 8
Introduction
This section of the report examines factors related to the current and future demand for both
owner‐ and renter‐occupied housing in Washington County, Minnesota. It includes an analysis
of population and household growth trends and projections, projected age distribution, house‐
hold income, household types, household tenure, employment growth trends and characteris‐
tics, age of housing stock, and recent residential building permit trends in Washington County.
A review of these characteristics will provide insight into the demand for various types of
housing in the county.
Population and Household Growth from 1980 to 2010
Table D‐1 presents the population and household growth of each submarket in Washington
County in 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2010. The data is from the U.S. Census. A breakdown of
historic population and household growth trends for all cities and townships in each submarket
in Washington County is provided at the end of the Demographic Analysis section.
Population
The strongest growth occurred between 1990 and 2000. Washington County’s population
grew by 55,234 people (+37.9%). This strong growth was fueled by growth into the outer
fringe of the Twin Cities Metro Area as there was little available land to accommodate new
housing closer to the Twin Cities core.
The majority of the growth in Washington County can be attributed to the growth in the
City of Woodbury. Approximately 48% of all population growth in the county occurred in
the City of Woodbury between 1990 and 2000. When considering the entire West submar‐
ket, it accounted for 87% of all growth.
Washington County’s population base grew from 201,130 people to 238,138 people be‐
tween the years of 2000 and 2010 (37,008 people, +18.4%). The majority of the growth oc‐
curred during the first half of the decade. Growth slowed during the late 2000s due to the
housing downturn.
Households
• Household growth trends are typically a more accurate indicator of housing needs than
population growth since a household is, by definition, an occupied housing unit. However,
additional demand can result from changing demographics of the population base, which
results in demand for different housing products.
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 91980 1990 2000 2010 No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct.Northeast 5,477 6,334 7,222 7,401 857 15.6% 888 14.0% 179 2.5%Stillwater 20,263 23,573 26,348 30,124 3,310 16.3% 2,775 11.8% 3,776 14.3%Southeast 8,531 9,266 11,493 12,195 735 8.6% 2,227 24.0% 702 6.1%East Total 34,271 39,173 45,063 49,720 4,902 14.3% 5,890 15.0% 4,657 10.3%Forest Lake 9,927 12,523 14,440 18,375 2,596 26.2% 1,917 15.3% 3,935 27.3%Hugo 3,771 4,417 6,363 13,332 646 17.1% 1,946 44.1% 6,969 109.5%Mahtomedi 9,675 12,712 14,911 15,023 3,037 31.4% 2,199 17.3% 112 0.8%Oakdale 12,802 19,059 27,353 28,064 6,257 48.9% 8,294 43.5% 711 2.6%Lake Elmo 5,296 5,903 6,863 8,069 607 11.5% 960 16.3% 1,206 17.6%Woodbury 10,297 20,075 46,463 61,961 9,778 95.0% 26,388 131.4% 15,498 33.4%Cottage Grove 27,532 32,034 39,674 43,592 4,502 16.4% 7,640 23.8% 3,918 9.9%West Total 79,300 106,723 156,067 188,416 27,423 34.6% 49,344 46.2% 32,349 20.7%Washington County Total 113,571 145,896 201,130 238,136 32,325 28.5% 55,234 37.9% 37,006 18.4%Northeast 1,663 2,114 2,555 2,883 451 27.1% 441 20.9% 328 12.8%Stillwater 6,295 7,988 9,413 11,270 1,693 26.9% 1,425 17.8% 1,857 19.7%Southeast 2,579 3,070 3,981 4,384 491 19.0% 911 29.7% 403 10.1%East Total 10,537 13,172 15,949 18,537 2,635 25.0% 2,777 21.1% 2,588 16.2%Forest Lake 3,311 4,424 5,433 7,014 1,113 33.6% 1,009 22.8% 1,581 29.1%Hugo 1,082 1,416 2,125 4,990 334 30.9% 709 50.1% 2,865 134.8%Mahtomedi 2,935 4,842 5,101 5,574 1,907 65.0% 259 5.3% 473 9.3%Oakdale 4,314 6,999 10,535 11,213 2,685 62.2% 3,536 50.5% 678 6.4%Lake Elmo 1,687 1,973 2,347 2,776 286 17.0% 374 19.0% 429 18.3%Woodbury 3,232 6,927 16,676 22,594 3,695 114.3% 9,749 140.7% 5,918 35.5%Cottage Grove 7,903 10,093 13,296 15,157 2,190 27.7% 3,203 31.7% 1,861 14.0%West Total 24,464 36,674 55,513 69,318 12,210 49.9% 18,839 51.4% 13,805 24.9%Washington County Total 35,001 49,846 71,462 87,855 14,845 42.4% 21,616 43.4% 16,393 22.9%Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; Maxfield Research Inc.1980‐1990 1990‐2000 2000‐2010POPULATIONHOUSEHOLDSTABLE D‐1HISTORIC POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLD GROWTH TRENDSWASHINGTON COUNTY1980‐2010ChangeU.S. Census
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
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DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
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• Washington County added 16,397 households during the 2000s (+22.9%), increasing its
household base to 87,859 households as of 2010. Households in the Metro Area increased
9.4% over the same time period.
• Approximately 84% of the growth between 2000 and 2010 occurred in the West submarket.
• Household growth rates outpaced population growth in Washington County. Washington
County’s population increased 18.4% compared to a 22.9% increase in households between
2000 and 2010. This is the result of fewer persons in each household, caused by demo‐
graphic and social trends such as couples delaying marriage, an increasing senior base, and
couples’ decisions to have fewer children or no children at all.
Population and Household Estimates and Projections
Table D‐2 presents population and household growth trends and projections for Washington
County through 2030. Estimates for 2015 and projections through 2030 are from the Metropol‐
itan Council.
Washington County will continue to experience strong growth during the next decade, but
at a slightly faster rate than during the past decade. Washington County is projected to
grow by 30,274 people (12.7%) and 14,421 households (16.4%) between 2010 and 2020. In
addition, Washington County is forecast to grow by 30,720 people (11.4%) and 13,930
households (13.6%) between 2020 and 2030.
Since households represent occupied housing units, growth of approximately 14,400
households in Washington County this decade is anticipated to require an equal number of
new housing units to accommodate the projected growth.
There are two large transit projects in Washington County that could impact growth and
development in the county. The first project is the Gateway Corridor (Gold Line Bus Rapid
Transit) that would extend from Woodbury to Downtown St. Paul along Hudson Road for a
distance of approximately 9 miles. The goal of the Gold Line BRT is to improve transit con‐
nections between the east metro and Downtown St. Paul. In 2015, the Gateway Corridor
received a $1 million grant from the Federal Transit Administration for transit‐oriented de‐
velopment planning along with $6.75 million in grants from the county’s Transit Improve‐
ment Board. The new transitway in the Gateway Corridor could be operational by 2023.
The second project is the Red Rock Corridor that would extend from Hastings to Downtown
St. Paul with the objective of improving transit connections along the Highway 61 Corridor.
The Red Rock Corridor Commission recently reviewed the Alternatives Analysis study com‐
pleted in 2007. The project is currently undergoing an Implementation process that began
in 2015. The Red Rock Commission has selected BRT over rail as their preferred improve‐
ment and are moving forward with station area planning for the Red Rock BRT. As they
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 12
proceed, these transit improvements may have a positive impact on population and house‐
hold growth in Washington County.
In the short‐term, Metro Transit is in the process of acquiring property for a new park and
ride at I‐94 and Manning Avenue. Transit ridership has increased in the east metro and the
new 550‐space park and ride would help alleviate congestion at existing facilities and is pro‐
jected to open in 2017.
Census Estimate
2010 2015 2020 2030 No. Pct. No. Pct.
Northeast 7,399 7,320 8,000 8,960 601 8.1% 960 12.0%
Stillwater 30,124 31,888 33,670 35,790 3,546 11.8% 2,120 6.3%
Southeast 12,203 12,483 12,680 12,870 477 3.9% 190 1.5%
East Total 49,726 51,691 54,350 57,620 4,624 9.3% 3,270 6.0%
Forest Lake 18,377 20,261 21,500 25,200 3,123 17.0% 3,700 17.2%
Hugo 13,332 14,352 16,900 22,800 3,568 26.8% 5,900 34.9%
Mahtomedi 15,023 15,260 15,200 15,240 177 1.2% 40 0.3%
Oakdale 28,064 28,914 29,160 30,140 1,096 3.9% 980 3.4%
Lake Elmo 8,061 8,643 10,500 14,100 2,439 30.3% 3,600 34.3%
Woodbury 61,961 66,974 72,500 80,500 10,539 17.0% 8,000 11.0%
Cottage Grove 43,592 44,920 48,300 53,530 4,708 10.8% 5,230 10.8%
West Total 188,410 199,324 214,060 241,510 25,650 13.6% 27,450 12.8%
Washington County Total 238,136 251,015 268,410 299,130 30,274 12.7% 30,720 11.4%
Northeast 2,883 2,845 3,240 3,710 357 12.4% 470 14.5%
Stillwater 11,270 12,050 13,290 14,380 2,020 17.9% 1,090 8.2%
Southeast 4,387 4,453 4,770 5,090 383 8.7% 320 6.7%
East Total 18,540 19,348 21,300 23,180 2,760 14.9% 1,880 8.8%
Forest Lake 7,015 7,179 8,600 10,500 1,585 22.6% 1,900 22.1%
Hugo 4,990 5,404 6,700 9,200 1,710 34.3% 2,500 37.3%
Mahtomedi 5,574 5,731 5,870 6,100 296 5.3% 230 3.9%
Oakdale 11,213 11,512 11,960 12,460 747 6.7% 500 4.2%
Lake Elmo 2,776 2,883 3,800 5,300 1,024 36.9% 1,500 39.5%
Woodbury 22,594 24,598 26,800 29,500 4,206 18.6% 2,700 10.1%
Cottage Grove 15,157 15,614 17,250 19,970 2,093 13.8% 2,720 15.8%
West Total 69,319 72,921 80,980 93,030 11,661 16.8% 12,050 14.9%
Washington County Total 87,859 92,669 102,280 116,210 14,421 16.4% 13,930 13.6%
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; Metropolitan Council; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
2020‐2030
POPULATION
HOUSEHOLDS
Forecast
TABLE D‐2
POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLD GROWTH TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS
WASHINGTON COUNTY
2010‐2030
Change
2010‐2020
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 13
Maxfield Research completed the previous Washington County Comprehensive Housing Needs
Analysis in 2013. Since the study was completed, the updated Metropolitan Council 2040
Thrive projections were revised. The Metropolitan Council reduced the previous 2020 Wash‐
ington County projections by 49,203 people (from 317,613 to 268,410) and by 21,094 house‐
holds (from 123,374 to 102,280). The 2030 forecasts were reduced by 62,960 people (from
362,090 to 299,130) and 28,027 households (from 144,237 to 116,210).
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
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DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 15
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 16
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 17
Household Size
Household size is calculated by dividing the number of people in households by the number of
households. Nationally, the average number of people per household has been declining for
over a century; however, there have been sharp declines starting in the 1960s and 1970s. The
number of people per household in the U.S. was estimated at 4.5 in 1916 and decreased to 3.2
in the 1960s. It dropped to 2.57 as of the 2000 Census. During the economic recession, this
trend temporarily stalled as renters and laid‐off employees “doubled‐up” which increased the
average U.S. household size to 2.59 by the 2010 Census.
Declining household sizes have been caused by several factors, including: aging of the popula‐
tion as a whole, higher divorce rates, cohabitation, smaller family sizes and demographic trends
in marriage. Most of these changes have resulted from shifts in societal values, the economy,
and improvements in health care that influence people’s lifestyles. Table D‐3 and the following
charts shows the household size in each submarket in Washington County.
In 2010, average household sizes ranged between 2.50 (Oakdale submarket) and 2.91 (Lake
Elmo submarket). In Washington County overall, the average household size was 2.71.
By 2030, the average household size in Washington County is projected to decrease from
2.71 in 2010 to 2.57.
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Northeast 3.29 3.00 2.83 2.57 2.47 2.42
Stillwater 3.22 2.95 2.80 2.67 2.53 2.49
Southeast 3.31 3.02 2.89 2.78 2.66 2.53
East Total 3.25 2.97 2.83 2.68 2.55 2.49
Forest Lake 3.00 2.83 2.66 2.62 2.50 2.40
Hugo 3.46 3.12 2.99 2.67 2.52 2.48
Mahtomedi 3.30 2.63 2.92 2.70 2.59 2.50
Oakdale 2.97 2.72 2.60 2.50 2.44 2.42
Lake Elmo 3.14 2.99 2.92 2.91 2.76 2.66
Woodbury 3.19 2.90 2.79 2.74 2.71 2.73
Cottage Grove 3.48 3.17 2.98 2.88 2.80 2.68
West Total 3.24 2.91 2.81 2.72 2.64 2.57
Washington County 3.24 2.93 2.81 2.71 2.62 2.57
Source: US Census, Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
TABLE D‐3
AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD SIZE
WASHINGTON COUNTY
2000‐2030
U.S. Census Projection
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 18
Age Distribution Trends
All people born together in a particular year or group of years are sometimes called historical or
cohort generations. The following table shows the general time period for the five American
generations during the 20th and 21st centuries.
Generation Z has surpassed the Baby Boomer generation in the greatest percentage of the
Washington County population in 2016 at an estimated 23.5%. By 2021, that percentage is
projected to increase slightly to 26.5%. Generation Y follows at 22.8% in 2016 increasing to
24.6% by 2021.
Student Rental 1st‐time Move‐up 2nd Empty Nester/ Senior
Housing Housing Home Buyer Home Buyer Home Buyer Downsizer Housing
Gen X Gen X Silent
Gen Y Baby B Baby B
Silent
Baby B
Gen Y Gen X Gen X Gen X Silent
Gen Z Gen Y Gen Y Baby B Baby B
2030
Gen Z Gen Z Gen Z Gen Y Gen Y Gen X Baby B
Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Gen X Baby B
2025
Gen Z Gen Z
2021
Gen Y Gen Y Gen Y Gen X
DEMOGRAPHICS & HOUSING DEMAND
Year
2016 Gen Y Gen Y Gen X Baby B
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 19
Generation Born 2016 Age
2016 % of
Wash. Co.
2016 % of
Metro Area
Silent Generation before 1946 70+ 8.8% 8.4%
Baby Boomers 1946 ‐ 1964 52 ‐ 70 22.2% 20.2%
Generation X 1965 ‐ 1980 35 ‐ 52 22.6% 24.2%
Generation Y (Millenials) 1981 ‐ 1999 17 ‐ 35 22.8% 25.0%
Generation Z 2000 and after 0 ‐ 16 23.5% 22.2%
Generation Born 2021 Age
2021 % of
Wash. Co.
2021% of
Metro Area
Silent Generation before 1946 75+ 5.9% 6.0%
Baby Boomers 1946 ‐ 1964 56 ‐ 75 21.2% 19.3%
Generation X 1965 ‐ 1980 40 ‐ 56 22.2% 21.6%
Generation Y (Millenials) 1981 ‐ 1999 21 ‐ 40 24.6% 25.3%
Generation Z 2000 and after 0 ‐ 21 26.2% 27.8%
AMERICAN GENERATIONS
YEAR BORN AND PERCENT OF POPULATION
Table D‐4 shows the distribution of persons in nine age cohorts for the ten submarkets in
Washington County in 2000 and 2010 with estimates for 2016 and projections for 2021, sum‐
marized on the table above and the charts below. The 2000 and 2010 age distributions are
from the U.S. Census Bureau. The 2016 estimates and 2021 projections were obtained from
ESRI. The following are key points from the table.
In 2010, the largest adult cohort in Washington County was 45 to 54, totaling 40,412 people
(17.0% of the total population). Mirroring trends observed across the nation, the aging ba‐
by boom generation is substantially impacting the composition of County’s population.
Born between 1946 and 1964, these individuals comprised the age groups 45 to 54 and 55
to 64 in 2010. As of 2010, baby boomers accounted for an estimated 29.4% of Washington
County’s population. This age group is projected to decline to 21.2% of the county popula‐
tion by 2021 as it will be overtaken by the Generation Z generation at 26.2% and Generation
Y at 24.6%)
The social changes that occurred with the aging of the baby boom generation, such as
higher divorce rates, higher levels of education, and lower birth rates has led to a greater
variety of lifestyles than existed in the past – not only among baby boomers, but also
among their parents and children. The increased variety of lifestyles has fueled demand for
alternative housing products to single‐family homes. Seniors, in particular, and middle‐aged
persons tend to do more traveling and participate in more activities than previous genera‐
tions and they increasingly prefer maintenance‐free housing that enables them to spend
more time on activities outside the home.
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 20
The 35 to 44 age group was the third largest cohort with 33,924 people (13.3%). Washing‐
ton County has an almost equal proportion of Generation X (age 35‐44) than the Metro Ar‐
ea (13.3% compared to 13.2%, respectively) as of 2016.
Washington County’s population of 18 to 34 year olds, which consists primarily of renters
and first‐time homebuyers, increased by 11.8% between 2000 and 2010, and is projected to
increase another 6.9% between 2016 and 2021. This will increase demand for rental units
and starter homes.
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 21
‐10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0
Under 18
18 to 24
25 to 34
35 to 44
45 to 54
55 to 64
65 to 74
75 to 84
85+
Percent
Change in Population by Age
Washington Co.
2016 ‐2021
The 65 to 74 age cohort is projected to have the greatest percentage growth increasing by
6,430 people (44.5%) from 2016 to 2021. The growth in this age cohort can be primarily
attributed to the aging of the baby boom generation into their young senior years.
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 22
Estimate Projection
2000 2010 2016 2021
Northeast No. No. No. No. No. Pct. No. Pct.
Under 18 1,942 1,622 1,487 1,469 ‐320 ‐19.7 ‐18 ‐1.1
18 to 24 431 379 411 455 ‐52 ‐13.7 44 11.6
25 to 34 484 406 431 517 ‐78 ‐19.2 87 21.4
35 to 44 1,389 839 760 764 ‐550 ‐65.6 3 0.4
45 to 54 1,498 1,605 1,417 1,215 107 6.7 ‐201 ‐12.5
55 to 64 836 1,473 1,618 1,778 637 43.2 160 10.9
65 to 74 396 704 917 1,300 308 43.8 383 54.4
75 to 84 200 284 314 463 84 29.6 149 52.6
85+ 46 89 102 135 43 48.3 33 36.6
Total 7,222 7,401 7,456 8,096 179 2.4 640 8.6
Stillwater No. No. No. No. No. Pct. No. Pct.
Under 18 6,704 6,936 6,888 6,727 232 3.3 ‐161 ‐2.3
18 to 24 1,960 2,232 2,680 2,703 272 12.2 22 1.0
25 to 34 3,424 3,394 3,717 4,154 ‐30 ‐0.9 437 12.9
35 to 44 4,874 4,304 3,983 4,103 ‐570 ‐13.2 121 2.8
45 to 54 4,206 5,001 4,941 4,608 795 15.9 ‐334 ‐6.7
55 to 64 2,325 3,983 4,588 4,826 1,658 41.6 237 6.0
65 to 74 1,393 2,099 3,021 3,855 706 33.6 834 39.7
75 to 84 1,006 1,356 1,474 1,936 350 25.8 462 34.1
85+ 456 819 951 971 363 44.3 20 2.4
Total 26,348 30,124 32,244 33,882 3,776 12.5 1,638 5.4
Southeast No. No. No. No. No. Pct. No. Pct.
Under 18 3,285 3,101 2,788 2,566 ‐184 ‐5.9 ‐222 ‐7.1
18 to 24 670 770 927 838 100 13.0 ‐88 ‐11.5
25 to 34 991 783 1,026 1,177 ‐208 ‐26.6 151 19.3
35 to 44 2,275 1,493 1,203 1,327 ‐782 ‐52.4 124 8.3
45 to 54 2,259 2,617 2,227 1,816 358 13.7 ‐411 ‐15.7
55 to 64 1,220 2,095 2,423 2,390 875 41.8 ‐33 ‐1.6
65 to 74 495 925 1,363 1,766 430 46.5 403 43.6
75 to 84 233 321 444 665 88 27.4 222 69.0
85+ 65 90 122 153 25 27.8 31 34.1
Total 11,493 12,195 12,522 12,699 702 5.8 177 1.5
Forest Lake No. No. No. No. No. Pct. No. Pct.
Under 18 3,902 4,827 5,213 5,451 925 19.2 239 4.9
18 to 24 1,172 1,401 1,641 1,645 229 16.3 4 0.3
25 to 34 1,842 2,417 2,678 2,757 575 23.8 80 3.3
35 to 44 2,564 2,570 2,773 3,078 6 0.2 305 11.9
45 to 54 2,210 2,790 2,797 2,747 580 20.8 ‐50 ‐1.8
55 to 64 1,320 2,286 2,595 2,737 966 42.3 142 6.2
65 to 74 713 1,229 1,801 2,150 516 42.0 348 28.3
75 to 84 501 578 715 979 77 13.3 264 45.7
85+ 216 277 296 325 61 22.0 29 10.3
Total 14,440 18,375 20,509 21,870 3,935 21.4 1,361 7.4
U.S. Census
TABLE D‐4
POPULATION AGE DISTRIBUTION
WASHINGTON COUNTY
2000 to 2021
Number of People
2000‐2010 2016‐2021
Change
‐‐continued‐‐
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 23
Estimate Projection
2000 2010 2016 2021
Hugo No. No. No. No. No. Pct. No. Pct.
Under 18 1,994 3,721 4,159 5,028 1,727 46.4 869 23.3
18 to 24 415 834 1,006 1,114 419 50.2 109 13.0
25 to 34 950 2,381 2,137 2,117 1,431 60.1 ‐20 ‐0.8
35 to 44 1,252 2,136 2,432 3,185 884 41.4 753 35.2
45 to 54 894 1,905 2,069 2,222 1,011 53.1 153 8.1
55 to 64 549 1,315 1,615 1,908 766 58.3 293 22.3
65 to 74 187 719 998 1,243 532 74.0 246 34.2
75 to 84 95 233 353 558 138 59.2 205 88.0
85+ 27 88 93 114 61 69.3 21 23.6
Total 6,363 13,332 14,862 17,490 6,969 52.3 2,628 19.7
Mahtomedi No. No. No. No. No. Pct. No. Pct.
Under 18 4,692 3,822 3,371 2,885 ‐870 ‐22.8 ‐486 ‐12.7
18 to 24 802 967 1,152 1,051 165 17.1 ‐102 ‐10.5
25 to 34 1,048 890 1,060 1,356 ‐158 ‐17.8 296 33.3
35 to 44 3,025 1,613 1,446 1,371 ‐1,412 ‐87.5 ‐75 ‐4.7
45 to 54 2,599 3,231 2,767 2,200 632 19.6 ‐568 ‐17.6
55 to 64 1,498 2,329 2,794 2,998 831 35.7 204 8.8
65 to 74 777 1,167 1,523 1,946 390 33.4 424 36.3
75 to 84 363 642 724 952 279 43.5 228 35.6
85+ 107 362 410 444 255 70.4 34 9.3
Total 14,911 15,023 15,248 15,204 112 0.7 ‐44 ‐0.3
Oakdale No. No. No. No. No. Pct. No. Pct.
Under 18 7,935 6,799 6,298 754 ‐1,136 ‐16.7 ‐5,544 ‐81.5
18 to 24 1,986 2,650 2,669 2,874 664 25.1 205 7.7
25 to 34 4,129 3,718 4,382 5,441 ‐411 ‐11.1 1,059 28.5
35 to 44 5,335 3,590 3,428 4,916 ‐1,745 ‐48.6 1,488 41.5
45 to 54 3,617 4,829 4,184 4,323 1,212 25.1 139 2.9
55 to 64 2,054 3,351 4,034 5,119 1,297 38.7 1,086 32.4
65 to 74 1,286 1,711 2,369 3,574 425 24.8 1,205 70.4
75 to 84 819 1,021 1,115 1,586 202 19.8 470 46.1
85+ 192 395 485 671 203 51.4 185 46.9
Total 27,353 28,064 28,963 29,258 711 2.5 295 1.1
Lake Elmo No. No. No. No. No. Pct. No. Pct.
Under 18 2,004 2,189 2,197 2,318 185 8.5 121 5.5
18 to 24 496 516 668 768 20 3.9 100 19.3
25 to 34 648 582 812 1,053 ‐66 ‐11.3 241 41.5
35 to 44 1,361 1,099 931 1,115 ‐262 ‐23.8 183 16.7
45 to 54 1,185 1,669 1,612 1,626 484 29.0 14 0.8
55 to 64 688 1,128 1,521 1,989 440 39.0 467 41.4
65 to 74 330 589 858 1,290 259 44.0 432 73.3
75 to 84 121 236 330 563 115 48.7 233 98.7
85+ 30 61 84 138 31 50.8 54 89.1
Total 6,863 8,069 9,014 10,860 1,206 14.9 1,846 22.9
Number of People
Change
2000‐2010 2016‐2021
TABLE D‐4 Continued
POPULATION AGE DISTRIBUTION
WASHINGTON COUNTY
2000 to 2021
U.S. Census
‐‐continued‐‐
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 24
Estimate Projection
2000 2010 2016 2021
Woodbury No. No. No. No. No. Pct. No. Pct.
Under 18 14,218 18,318 19,419 20,459 4,100 22.4 1,040 5.7
18 to 24 2,749 3,844 4,675 4,881 1,095 28.5 206 5.4
25 to 34 7,790 8,297 8,674 8,909 507 6.1 235 2.8
35 to 44 9,374 9,998 10,586 12,127 624 6.2 1,541 15.4
45 to 54 6,428 9,979 10,038 9,793 3,551 35.6 ‐245 ‐2.5
55 to 64 3,078 6,361 8,036 8,657 3,283 51.6 622 9.8
65 to 74 1,651 2,971 4,193 5,485 1,320 44.4 1,292 43.5
75 to 84 809 1,619 1,793 2,199 810 50.0 406 25.1
85+ 366 574 666 791 208 36.2 124 21.7
Total 46,463 61,961 68,079 73,300 15,498 25.0 5,221 8.4
Cottage Grove No. No. No. No. No. Pct. No. Pct.
Under 18 12,549 12,263 11,826 12,178 ‐286 ‐2.3 352 2.9
18 to 24 3,045 3,454 3,892 3,625 409 11.8 ‐267 ‐7.7
25 to 34 6,035 5,996 6,348 7,068 ‐39 ‐0.7 721 12.0
35 to 44 7,428 6,601 6,382 7,296 ‐827 ‐12.5 914 13.8
45 to 54 5,314 6,786 6,626 6,248 1,472 21.7 ‐378 ‐5.6
55 to 64 2,916 4,667 5,500 6,088 1,751 37.5 588 12.6
65 to 74 1,602 2,326 3,215 4,079 724 31.1 864 37.2
75 to 84 635 1,175 1,380 1,714 540 46.0 334 28.4
85+ 150 324 428 527 174 53.7 99 30.4
TOTAL 39,674 43,592 45,596 48,823 3,918 9.0 3,227 7.4
Washington Total No. No. No. No. No. Pct. No. Pct.
Under 18 59,225 63,598 63,646 59,836 4,373 6.9 ‐3,810 ‐6.0
18 to 24 13,726 17,047 19,721 19,954 3,321 19.5 233 1.4
25 to 34 27,341 28,864 31,264 34,552 1,523 5.3 3,288 11.4
35 to 44 38,877 34,243 33,924 39,281 ‐4,634 ‐13.5 5,358 15.6
45 to 54 30,210 40,412 38,678 36,797 10,202 25.2 ‐1,880 ‐4.7
55 to 64 16,484 28,988 34,723 38,490 12,504 43.1 3,767 13.0
65 to 74 8,830 14,440 20,258 26,688 5,610 38.9 6,430 44.5
75 to 84 4,782 7,465 8,642 11,616 2,683 35.9 2,974 39.8
85+ 1,655 3,079 3,638 4,267 1,424 46.2 629 20.4
TOTAL 201,130 238,136 254,493 271,482 37,006 15.5 16,989 7.1
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; ESRI; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
TABLE D‐4 Continued
POPULATION AGE DISTRIBUTION
WASHINGTON COUNTY
2000‐2010 2016‐2021
2000 to 2021
Number of People
U.S. Census Change
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 25
Race and Ethnicity
The race and ethnicity of the population shows the diversity for each submarket in Washington
County. Tables D‐5 and D‐6 present race and ethnicity data in 2010 and 2014.
“White Alone” comprises the largest proportion of the population in every submarket. The
Oakdale submarket is estimated to have the lowest percentage (79.8%) and the Northeast
submarket had the highest (96.9%) in 2014.
While “White Alone” has been estimated to remain the largest race category in 2014, it
represented a slightly smaller proportion of total population decreasing from 87.8% in 2010
to 87.5%.
“Two or More Races” experienced the largest percentage growth between 2010 and 2014,
increasing 22.9% (1,147 people) in Washington County. This was followed by “Black or Afri‐
can American Alone” increasing by an estimated 5.4% (465 people). The largest numerical
increase was “White Alone” with an estimated growth of 4,502 people or 2.2%.
Although Hispanics/Latinos are estimated to comprise only 3.6% of the population in 2014,
there was a 9.1% increase in this group between 2010 and 2014.
Individuals responding to the Census select their race in addition to indicating if they are of
Hispanic/Latino origin. Since people self‐identify their racial classification, there may be
confusion on the part of some people about what category most accurately describes their
race. Some people may choose to self‐identify using their ethnicity as their race. The in‐
creasing diversity of the nation has likely resulted in some confusion over these figures
which is expected to continue.
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 26 2010 2014 2010 2014 2010 2014 2010 2014 2010 2014 2010 2014 2010 2014NumberNortheast 7,219 7,263 15 27 21 27 0 0 61 83 18 71 67 26Stillwater 27,745 27,858 1,057 1,305 317 253 5 0 394 443 154 130 452 716Southeast 11,526 11,719 72 25 39 9 4 4 335 427 60 40 159 96East Total 46,490 46,840 1,144 1,357 377 289 9 4 790 953 232 241 678 838Forest Lake 17,394 17,802 195 129 73 47 10 0 269 480 117 99 317 376Hugo 12,381 12,843 105 253 39 112 4 0 465 214 77 226 261 202Mahtomedi 14,280 14,843 223 105 39 41 5 0 215 232 54 11 207 225Oakdale 22,770 22,747 1,664 2,357 134 106 8 15 2,258 2,111 434 271 796 894Lake Elmo 7,451 7,809 65 0 28 0 1 0 266 217 107 7 151 90Woodbury 50,462 52,438 3,487 3,552 171 150 15 91 5,660 5,768 592 453 1,574 2,092Cottage Grove 37,784 38,192 1,696 1,291 227 125 25 0 2,148 2,604 687 538 1,025 1,439West Total 162,522 166,674 7,435 7,687 711 581 68 106 11,281 11,626 2,068 1,605 4,331 5,318Washington Total 209,012 213,514 8,579 9,044 1,088 870 77 110 12,071 12,579 2,300 1,846 5,009 6,156Percent of TotalNortheast 97.5% 96.9% 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 1.1% 0.2% 0.9% 0.9%0.3%Stillwater 92.1% 90.7% 3.5% 4.3% 1.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 1.4% 0.5% 0.4% 1.5%2.3%Southeast 94.5% 95.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 2.7% 3.5% 0.5% 0.3% 1.3%0.8%East Total 93.5% 92.7% 2.3% 2.7% 0.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 1.9% 0.5% 0.5% 1.4%1.7%Forest Lake 94.7% 94.0% 1.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 1.5% 2.5% 0.6% 0.5% 1.7% 2.0%Hugo 92.9% 92.7% 0.8% 1.8% 0.3% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 3.5% 1.5% 0.6% 1.6% 2.0% 1.5%Mahtomedi 95.1% 96.0% 1.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 1.4%1.5%Oakdale 81.1% 79.8% 5.9% 8.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 8.0% 7.4% 1.5% 1.0% 2.8% 3.1%Lake Elmo 92.3% 96.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.3% 2.7% 1.3% 0.1% 1.9%1.1%Woodbury 81.4% 81.2% 5.6% 5.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 9.1% 8.9% 1.0% 0.7% 2.5% 3.2%Cottage Grove 86.7% 86.4% 3.9% 2.9% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 4.9% 5.9% 1.6% 1.2%2.4% 3.3%West Total 86.3% 86.1% 3.9% 4.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 6.0% 6.0% 1.1% 0.8% 2.3%2.7%Washington Total 87.8% 87.5% 3.6% 3.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 5.1% 5.2% 1.0% 0.8% 2.1% 2.5%Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLCRACETABLE D‐5WASHINGTON COUNTY2010 & 2014Black or African American AloneAmerican Indian or Alaska Native AloneTwo or More Races AloneWhite AloneNative Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander AloneAsian Alone Some Other Race
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 27
2010 2014 2000 2014
Number
Northeast 78 261 7,323 7,223
Stillwater 664 661 29,460 30,044
Southeast 215 379 11,980 11,941
East Total 957 1,301 48,763 49,208
Forest Lake 430 688 17,945 18,245
Hugo 319 527 13,013 13,323
Mahtomedi 241 265 14,782 15,192
Oakdale 1,349 1,299 26,715 27,202
Lake Elmo 279 124 7,790 7,999
Woodbury 2,329 2,979 59,632 61,565
Cottage Grove 2,223 1,687 41,369 42,499
West Total 7,170 7,569 181,246 186,025
Washington Total 8,127 8,870 230,009 235,233
Percent of Total
Northeast 1.1% 3.5% 98.9% 96.5%
Stillwater 2.2% 2.2% 97.8% 97.8%
Southeast 1.8% 3.1% 98.2% 96.9%
East Total 1.9% 2.6% 98.1% 97.4%
Forest Lake 2.3% 3.6% 97.7% 96.4%
Hugo 2.4% 3.8% 97.6% 96.2%
Mahtomedi 1.6% 1.7% 98.4% 98.3%
Oakdale 4.8% 4.6% 95.2% 95.4%
Lake Elmo 3.5% 1.5% 96.5% 98.5%
Woodbury 3.8% 4.6% 96.2% 95.4%
Cottage Grove 5.1% 3.8% 94.9% 96.2%
West Total 3.8% 3.9% 96.2% 96.1%
Washington Total 3.4% 3.6% 96.6% 96.4%
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
TABLE D‐6
ETHNICITY
WASHINGTON COUNTY
2010 & 2014
Hispanic or Latino Not Hispanic or
Latino
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 28
Household Income by Age of Householder
The estimated distribution of household incomes in Washington County for 2016 and 2021 is
shown in Table D‐7. The data was estimated by Maxfield Research based on income trends
provided by ESRI and the Metropolitan Council. The data helps ascertain the demand for
different housing products based on the size of the market at specific cost levels.
The Department of Housing and Urban Development defines affordable housing costs as 30% of
a household’s adjusted gross income. For example, a household with an income of $50,000 per
year would be able to afford a monthly housing cost of about $1,250. Maxfield Research
utilizes a figure of 25% to 30% for younger households and 40% or more for seniors, since
seniors generally have lower living expenses and can often sell their homes and use the pro‐
ceeds toward rent payments.
A generally accepted standard for affordable owner‐occupied housing is that a typical house‐
hold can afford to pay 3.0 to 3.5 times their annual income on a single‐family home. Thus, a
$50,000 income would translate to an affordable single‐family home of $150,000 to $175,000.
The higher end of this range assumes that the person has adequate funds for down payment
and closing costs, but also does not include savings or equity in an existing home which would
allow them to purchase a higher priced home.
In 2016, the median household income in Washington County was estimated to be $85,126
and is projected to climb nearly 14% to $96,736 by 2021. By comparison, the median
household income in the Metro Area was estimated to be lower than Washington County at
$70,404 in 2016.
The Lake Elmo submarket had the highest median household income in the county in 2016,
at $105,592 (28% higher than the county median), followed by Stillwater at $103,813. The
lowest incomes were found in Oakdale ($68,807) and Forest Lake ($72,660). By 2021, Lake
Elmo is expected to have the highest median household income at $117,149.
As households age through their lifecycles, their household incomes tend to peak in their
late 40s and early 50s which explains why most upscale housing is targeted to people in this
age group. This trend is apparent in the county as households in the 45 to 54 age group
have a median household income of $106,648.
With a household income of $85,126, a household could afford a monthly housing cost of
about $2,128, based on an allocation of 30% of income toward housing.
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 29 TotalNo. Income No. Income No. Income No. Income No. Income No. Income No. IncomeNo.Northeast 15 $43,595 125 $77,674 391 $94,712 801 $108,088 875 $95,715 470 $75,396 247 $49,077 2,924 $87,987Stillwater 234 $45,669 1,321 $71,477 2,137 $93,471 2,867 $102,934 2,582 $86,784 1,550 $60,168 1,606 $33,141 12,298 $103,813Southeast 23 $77,369 264 $90,755 721 $112,804 1,360 $122,484 1,252 $110,567 616 $82,007 279 $42,460 4,516 $103,513East Total 272 $48,617 1,710 $75,792 3,250 $99,116 5,028 $108,609 4,710 $96,225 2,636 $68,588 2,133 $36,734 19,738 $83,584Forest Lake 248 $41,252 1,206 $67,683 1,454 $83,988 1,627 $89,005 1,470 $78,019 860 $61,309 598 $39,103 7,463 $72,660Hugo 119 $57,032 1,326 $74,237 1,285 $92,366 1,224 $97,141 931 $87,117 522$65,485 254 $42,067 5,663 $81,199Mahtomedi 39 $50,647 332 $81,171 784 $111,247 1,719 $125,082 1,438 $114,224 783 $82,927 664 $40,382 5,759 $101,661Oakdale 438 $39,779 1,832 $69,103 1,963 $80,931 2,853 $88,200 2,202 $77,945 1,244 $51,905 1,069 $31,766 11,602 $68,807Lake Elmo 26 $45,336 206 $84,278 547 $108,251 939 $130,474 725 $117,904 416 $91,186 207 $52,904 3,066 $105,592Woodbury 634 $61,252 4,388 $86,888 5,875 $112,971 6,112 $121,820 4,354 $105,524 2,109 $79,633 1,565 $44,366 25,038 $101,154Cottage Grove 352 $53,262 2,725 $78,928 3,436 $96,648 3,808 $98,140 2,921 $82,742 1,591 $59,882 1,108 $36,384 15,941 $80,531West Total 1,857 $52,265 12,015 $78,764 15,345 $100,559 18,283 $106,15514,042 $91,816 7,525 $67,190 5,466 $38,621 74,532 $85,482Washington Co 2,129 $51,878 13,725 $78,381 18,594 $100,389 23,311 $106,648 18,752 $92,753 10,161 $67,537 7,599 $38,124 94,270 $85,126Northeast 16 $44,404 137 $86,000 412 $103,846 813 $115,688 1,003 $106,520620 $88,120 286 $50,161 3,287 $97,024Stillwater 231 $46,025 1,431 $84,960 2,205 $104,459 2,840 $112,154 2,890$102,613 1,981 $76,168 1,822 $35,343 13,399 $115,271Southeast 21 $85,471 275 $104,406 721 $123,724 1,321 $133,296 1,377 $125,711 775 $100,782 311 $46,416 4,802 $112,137East Total 268 $48,164 1,843 $88,583 3,338 $108,089 4,974 $117,485 5,270$109,246 3,376 $84,219 2,419 $39,309 21,488 $96,029Forest Lake 266 $39,768 1,415 $77,342 1,653 $90,917 1,748 $98,219 1,787 $87,192 1,197 $70,022 724 $40,226 8,790 $80,042Hugo 136 $57,448 1,618 $82,759 1,525 $101,431 1,375 $104,343 1,190 $101,549 772 $80,667 334 $43,817 6,950 $91,847Mahtomedi 36 $48,080 335 $97,788 758 $123,941 1,607 $139,105 1,508 $128,646 950 $101,086 698 $43,868 5,893 $109,958Oakdale 406 $38,726 1,884 $80,305 1,944 $92,234 2,717 $99,262 2,375 $87,535 1,533 $57,167 1,150 $33,756 12,010 $79,303Lake Elmo 30 $50,000 258 $97,879 671 $125,316 1,109 $142,809 965 $135,367637 $107,469 281 $58,840 3,950 $117,149Woodbury 635 $68,595 4,796 $100,497 6,202 $123,231 6,079 $130,990 4,885 $117,967 2,725 $93,839 1,748 $47,696 27,070 $110,500Cottage Grove 348 $54,137 2,996 $89,477 3,637 $103,649 3,842 $104,976 3,335 $93,678 2,082 $72,066 1,281 $37,063 17,522 $90,209West Total 1,857 $53,019 13,303 $89,508 16,389 $107,684 18,478 $113,92016,046 $104,373 9,897 $81,198 6,216 $40,489 82,185 $96,903Washington Co 2,125 $52,456 15,146 $89,352 19,727 $107,737 23,453 $114,594 21,315 $105,477 13,273 $81,975 8,635 $40,181 103,673 $96,736Sources: ESRI; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLCTABLE D‐7HOUSEHOLD INCOME BY AGE OF HOUSEHOLDERWASHINGTON COUNTY202175+Median HHIncome20162016 and 2021Age of Householder15‐24 25‐34 35‐44 45‐54 55‐64 65 ‐74
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 30
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
Median Household Income by Submarket
2016 & 2021
2016 2021
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 31
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 32
Tenure by Age of Householder
Table D‐8 shows the number of owner and renter households in Washington County by age
group in 2010 and 2014. Table D‐9 shows 2014 tenure data for each of the submarkets from
the U.S. Census Bureau. This data is useful in determining demand for certain types of housing
since housing preferences change throughout an individual’s life cycle. The following are key
findings from Tables D‐8 and D‐9.
In 2010, 82.8% of all households in Washington County owned their housing. By 2014, that
percentage is estimated to have decreased to 80.7%. This is higher than the Metro Area
with a 70% homeownership rate. The housing market downturn contributed to the de‐
crease in the homeownership rate during the late 2000s as it became more difficult for
households to secure mortgage loans, households delayed purchasing homes due to the
uncertainty of the housing market, and foreclosures forced households out of their homes.
The for‐sale housing market continues to recover; however, the renter market remains
strong across the Twin Cities Metro Area.
Within the county, Lake Elmo had the highest ownership rate at 92.4% while Stillwater had
the lowest ownership rate (71.8%). However, Woodbury had the highest estimated numer‐
ical number of renters with 5,234 households in 2014.
As households progress through their life cycle, housing needs change. Typically, the
proportion of renter households decreases as households age out of their young‐adult
years until their older adult years, age 65 or older when the pattern reverses. This pattern
is apparent in the county as 74.0% of households age 15 to 24, 35.7% of age 25 to 34
households, and 18.8% of 65 and older households are estimated renters in 2014. Percent
renters for 65+ households ranged from a low of 1.7% in Southeast to a high of 28.2% in
Stillwater. By comparison, only 16.0% of the age 35 to 64 households rented.
In the 15 to 24 age group, Stillwater had the highest proportion of renters at 93.2% (206
renter households), followed by Oakdale at 88.9% (329 renter households). Woodbury had
the largest number of renter households in this age group with 474 (35.2% of the county).
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 33
Submarket OwnerPct.RenterPct. Total OwnerPct.RenterPct. Total
Northeast 2,670 92.6 214 7.4 2,884 2,644 91.6 242 8.4 2,886
Stillwater 8,447 75.0 2,823 25.0 11,270 8,394 71.8 3,298 28.2 11,692
Southeast 4,135 94.3 249 5.7 4,384 4,043 92.1 345 7.9 4,388
East Total 15,252 82.3 3,286 17.7 18,538 15,081 79.5 3,885 20.5 18,966
Forest Lake 5,362 76.4 1,652 23.6 7,014 5,238 74.8 1,761 25.2 6,999
Hugo 4,539 91.0 451 9.0 4,990 4,505 89.2 546 10.8 5,051
Mahtomedi 4,891 87.7 683 12.3 5,574 4,967 85.9 812 14.1 5,779
Oakdale 8,704 77.6 2,509 22.4 11,213 8,443 75.7 2,710 24.3 11,153
Lake Elmo 2,648 95.3 131 4.7 2,779 2,639 92.4 218 7.6 2,857
Woodbury 18,290 81.0 4,304 19.0 22,594 18,425 77.9 5,234 22.1 23,659
Cottage Grove 13,032 86.0 2,125 14.0 15,157 13,242 85.8 2,192 14.2 15,434
West Total 57,466 82.9 11,855 17.1 69,321 57,459 81.0 13,473 19.0 70,932
Washington Total 72,718 82.8 15,141 17.2 87,859 72,540 80.7 17,358 19.3 89,898
Sources: U.S. Census; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
TABLE D‐8
HOUSEHOLD TENURE
WASHINGTON COUNTY
2010 and 2014
2010 2014
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 34Age No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct.15‐24Own 9 52.9 15 6.8 22 53.7 19 15.2 144 64.6 22 34.4 41 11.1 11 100.0 88 15.7 102 55.4 473 26.0Rent 8 47.1 206 93.2 19 46.3 106 84.8 79 35.4 42 65.6 329 88.9 0 0.0 474 84.3 82 44.6 1,345 74.0Total 17 100.0 221 100.0 41 100.0 125 100.0 223 100.0 64 100.0 370 100.0 11 100.0 562 100.0 184 100.0 1,818 100.025‐34Own 51 57.3 512 36.9 147 66.8 618 57.5 824 87.8 270 76.9 1,122 62.1 81 44.5 2,543 61.2 2,181 78.6 8,349 64.3Rent 38 42.7 877 63.1 73 33.2 457 42.5 115 12.2 81 23.1 686 37.9 101 55.5 1,613 38.8 594 21.4 4,635 35.7Total 89 100.0 1,389 100.0 220 100.0 1,075 100.0 939 100.0 351 100.0 1,808 100.0 182 100.0 4,156 100.0 2,775 100.0 12,984 100.035‐44Own 292 86.4 1,595 77.4 547 88.2 1,200 76.4 1,072 89.9 609 84.6 1,325 70.3 45689.6 4,286 79.9 2,682 81.5 14,064 80.1Rent 46 13.6 465 22.6 73 11.8 370 23.6 121 10.1 111 15.4 561 29.7 53 10.4 1,080 20.1 610 18.5 3,490 19.9Total 338 100.0 2,060 100.0 620 100.0 1,570 100.0 1,193 100.0 720 100.0 1,886 100.0 509 100.0 5,366 100.0 3,292 100.0 17,554 100.045‐54Own 667 96.0 2,193 83.8 1,263 92.7 1,260 83.8 1,121 96.4 1,612 93.7 2,456 90.4 743 98.9 4,961 85.3 3,388 88.3 19,664 88.6Rent 28 4.0 425 16.2 99 7.3 244 16.2 42 3.6 108 6.3 262 9.6 8 1.1 852 14.7 450 11.72,518 11.4Total 695 100.0 2,618 100.0 1,362 100.0 1,504 100.0 1,163 100.0 1,720 100.02,718 100.0 751 100.0 5,813 100.0 3,838 100.0 22,182 100.055‐64Own 886 91.9 1,987 83.6 1,132 94.6 1,083 79.2 801 88.4 1,233 92.2 1,747 86.9 701 94.5 3,489 86.2 3,654 95.3 16,713 89.0Rent 78 8.1 390 16.4 65 5.4 284 20.8 105 11.6 104 7.8 264 13.1 41 5.5 557 13.8 1794.7 2,067 11.0Total 964 100.0 2,377 100.0 1,197 100.0 1,367 100.0 906 100.0 1,337 100.0 2,011 100.0 742 100.0 4,046 100.0 3,833 100.0 18,780 100.065 +Own 739 94.4 2,092 69.1 932 98.3 1,058 77.9 543 86.6 1,221 76.9 1,752 74.2 64797.7 3,058 82.3 2,235 89.0 14,277 81.2Rent 44 5.6 935 30.9 16 1.7 300 22.1 84 13.4 366 23.1 608 25.8 15 2.3 658 17.7 27711.0 3,303 18.8Total 783 100.0 3,027 100.0 948 100.0 1,358 100.0 627 100.0 1,587 100.0 2,360 100.0 662 100.0 3,716 100.0 2,512 100.0 17,580 100.0TOTALOwn 2,644 91.6 8,394 71.8 4,043 92.1 5,238 74.8 4,505 89.2 4,967 85.9 8,443 75.7 2,639 92.4 18,425 77.9 14,242 86.7 73,540 80.9Rent 242 8.4 3,298 28.2 345 7.9 1,761 25.2 546 10.8 812 14.1 2,710 24.3 218 7.65,234 22.1 2,192 13.3 17,358 19.1Total 2,886 100.0 11,692 100.0 4,388 100.0 6,999 100.0 5,051 100.0 5,779 100.0 11,153 100.0 2,857 100.0 23,659 100.0 16,434 100.0 90,898 100.0Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLCTABLE D‐9TENURE BY AGE OF HOUSEHOLDERWASHINGTON COUNTY2014Northeast Stillwater Southeast Forest Lake Hugo Mahtomedi Oakdale Lake Elmo Woodbury WashingtonCottage Grove
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 35
26.0%
64.3%
80.1%88.6%89.0%81.2%
74.0%
35.7%
19.9%11.4%11.0%18.8%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
15‐24 25‐34 35‐44 45‐54 55‐64 65+
Tenure by Age
Washington County
2014
Renter
Owner
Homeownership rates nationwide have been decreasing and the US homeownership rate as of
2016 fell to its lowest level since 1995. The homeownership rate in the US was 63.5% as of 3rd
Quarter 2016, down from 63.7% in 2015. Relatively tight credit, a very limited for‐sale invento‐
ry, challenges in saving for a down payment, and a higher rate of single‐family rentals have
resulted in the overall lower homeownership rate. Homeownership rates however, remain
higher in the Midwest at 68.6% in 2016 compared to 63.5% in the U.S. The graph above shows
the annual homeownership rates in the U.S. and Midwest from the American Community
Survey.
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
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DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 37
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 38
Tenure by Household Income
Table D‐10 shows household tenure by age of householder for Washington County in 2014.
The data is an estimate from the American Community Survey. Household tenure information
is important to assess the propensity for owner‐occupied or renter‐occupied housing options
based on household affordability. As stated earlier, the Department of Housing and Urban
Development determines affordable housing as not exceeding 30% of the household’s income.
It is important to note that the higher the income, the lower percentage a household typically
allocates to housing. Many lower income households, as well as many young and senior
households, spend more than 30% of their income, while middle‐aged households in their
prime earning years typically allocate 20% to 25% of their income.
Typically, as income increases, so does the rate of homeownership. This can be seen in
Washington County, where the homeownership rate steadily increases from 46.4% of
households with incomes below $15,000 to over 95.7% of households with incomes above
$150,000.
A portion of renter households that are referred to as lifestyle renters, or those who are
financially‐able to own but choose to rent, have household incomes above $50,000 (about
45% of Washington County’s renters in 2014). Households with incomes below $15,000 are
typically a market for subsidized rental housing (about 15% of Washington County renters in
2014).
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 39Owner‐ Renter‐ Owner‐ Renter‐ Owner‐ Renter‐ Owner‐ Renter‐Income Occupied Pct. Occupied Pct. Occupied Pct. Occupied Pct. Occupied Pct. Occupied Pct. Occupied Pct. Occupied Pct.Less than $15,000 92 76.0% 29 24.0% 285 30.2% 659 69.8% 179 79.2% 47 20.8% 196 31.2% 433 68.8%$15,000 to $24,999 56 68.3% 26 31.7% 488 45.6% 583 54.4% 108 85.7% 18 14.3%200 54.2% 169 45.8%$25,000 to $34,999 158 90.8% 16 9.2% 489 57.9% 356 42.1% 184 88.9% 23 11.1%206 39.9% 310 60.1%$35,000 to $49,999 203 82.5% 43 17.5% 725 57.4% 537 42.6% 357 84.2% 67 15.8% 451 61.1% 287 38.9%$50,000 to $74,999 531 91.2% 51 8.8% 1,365 71.2% 552 28.8% 633 92.5% 51 7.5% 751 72.1% 290 27.9%$75,000 to $99,999 484 98.0% 10 2.0% 1,469 85.5% 249 14.5% 581 90.1% 64 9.9% 1,023 88.3% 135 11.7%$100,000 to $149,999 686 91% 64 8.5% 1,891 88.5% 245 11.5% 916 93.8% 61 6.2% 1,042 88.4% 137 11.6%$150,000+ 434 99.3% 3 0.7% 1,682 93.5% 117 6.5% 1,085 98.7% 14 1.3% 695 100.0%00.0%Total 2,644 91.6% 242 8.4% 8,394 71.8% 3,298 28.2% 4,043 92.1% 345 7.9% 4,564 72.2% 1,761 27.8%Owner‐ Renter‐ Owner‐ Renter‐ Owner‐ Renter‐ Owner‐ Renter‐Units in Structure Occupied Pct. Occupied Pct. Occupied Pct. Occupied Pct. Occupied Pct. Occupied Pct.Occupied Pct. Occupied Pct.Less than $15,000 57 39.9% 86 60.1% 213 52.2% 195 47.8% 210 28.0% 541 72.0%129 83.8% 25 16.2%$15,000 to $24,999 230 65.3% 122 34.7% 167 57.2% 125 42.8% 298 41.0% 428 59.0% 104 81.3% 24 18.8%$25,000 to $34,999 144 66.4% 73 33.6% 201 60.9% 129 39.1% 535 50.2% 530 49.8% 105 100.0% 0 0.0%$35,000 to $49,999 563 96.7% 19 3.3% 438 83.1% 89 16.9% 1,255 76.3% 390 23.7% 151 72.9% 56 27.1%$50,000 to $74,999 751 87.8% 104 12.2% 690 85.9% 113 14.1% 1,623 81.4% 37018.6% 300 85% 51 14.5%$75,000 to $99,999 1,023 94.7% 57 5.3% 598 89.0% 74 11.0% 1,695 88.8% 213 11.2% 348 84.9% 62 15.1%$100,000 to $149,999 1,042 92.5% 85 7.5% 1,129 96.7% 38 3.3% 1,884 89.5% 221 10.5% 548 100% 0 0.0%$150,000+ 695 100.0% 0 0.0% 1,531 96.9% 49 3.1% 943 98.2% 17 1.8% 954 100% 0 0.0%Total 4,505 89.2% 546 10.8% 4,967 85.9% 812 14.1% 8,443 75.7% 2,710 24.3% 2,639 92.4% 218 7.6%Owner‐ Renter‐ Owner‐ Renter‐ Owner‐ Renter‐Units in Structure Occupied Pct. Occupied Pct. Occupied Pct. Occupied Pct. Occupied Pct. Occupied Pct.Less than $15,000 437 63.2% 254 36.8% 453 57.5% 335 42.5% 2,251 46.4% 2,604 53.6%$15,000 to $24,999 627 53.5% 545 46.5% 476 54.5% 398 45.5% 2,754 53.0% 2,438 47.0%$25,000 to $34,999 575 63.1% 336 36.9% 606 71.3% 244 28.7% 3,203 61.4% 2,017 38.6%$35,000 to $49,999 1,321 69.4% 582 30.6% 1,185 76.3% 369 23.7% 6,649 73.2%2,43926.8%$50,000 to $74,999 2,492 63.7% 1,421 36.3% 2,839 86.2% 455 13.8% 11,975 77.6% 3,458 22.4%$75,000 to $99,999 2,538 74.8% 857 25.2% 2,579 92.0% 225 8.0% 12,338 86.4%1,94613.6%$100,000 to $149,999 4,775 85.5% 812 14.5% 3,467 96.9% 112 3.1% 17,380 90.7% 1,775 9.3%$150,000+ 5,660 93.0% 427 7.0% 1,637 96.8% 54 3.2% 15,316 95.7% 681 4.3%Total 18,425 77.9% 5,234 22.1% 13,24285.8% 2,192 14.2% 71,866 80.5% 17,358 19.5%Sources: U.S. Census Bureau ‐ American Community Survey; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLCHUGO MAHTOMEDI OAKDALE LAKE ELMOWOODBURY COTTAGE GROVE TOTALTABLE D‐10TENURE BY HOUSEHOLD INCOMEWASHINGTON COUNTY2014NORTHEAST STILLWATER SOUTHEAST FOREST LAKE
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 40
Tenure by Household Size
Table D‐11 shows the distribution of households by size and tenure in Washington County in
2014. This data is useful in that it sheds insight into the number of units by unit type that may
be most needed in Washington County.
Household size for renters tends to be smaller than for owners. This trend is a result of the
typical market segments for rental housing, including households that are younger and are
less likely to be married with children as well as older adults and seniors who choose to
downsize from their single‐family homes. In 2014, the average Washington County renter
household consisted of 2.32 persons compared to the average owner household of 2.76
persons.
An estimated 66% of renter households in Washington County in 2014 have either one or
two people. The one‐person households would primarily seek one‐bedroom units and two‐
person households that are couple would primarily seek one‐bedroom units. Two‐person
households that consist of a parent and child or roommate would primarily seek two‐
bedroom units. Larger households would seek units with multiple bedrooms.
Household Type
Table D‐12 shows a breakdown of the type of households present in Washington County in
2010 and 2014. The data is useful in assessing housing demand since the household composi‐
tion often dictates the type of housing needed and preferred.
Family households were the most common type of household in the county, representing
over 74% of all households in 2010.
Married couples without children comprised 33.1% of all households in 2010 and 33.6% in
2014. Married couple families with children comprised 28.5% of all the Washington County
households in 2010, estimate to have dropped to 26.2% in 2014.
Married couple families without children are generally made up of younger couples that
have not had children and older couples with adult children that have moved out of the
home. There is also a growing national trend toward married couples choosing delay child‐
birth, delaying children, or choosing not to have children entirely as birthrates have notice‐
ably decreased. Older couples with adult children often desire multifamily housing options
for convenience reasons but older couples in rural areas typically hold onto their single‐
family homes until they need services. Married couple families with children typically gen‐
erate demand for single‐family detached ownership housing. Other family households, de‐
fined as a male or female householder with no spouse present (typically single‐parent
households), often require affordable housing.
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 41Owner‐ Renter‐ Owner‐ Renter‐ Owner‐ Renter‐ Owner‐ Renter‐Size Occupied Pct. Occupied Pct. Occupied Pct. Occupied Pct. Occupied Pct. Occupied Pct. Occupied Pct. Occupied Pct.1PP Household 331 12.5% 23 9.5% 1,705 20.3% 1,563 47.4% 674 16.7% 102 29.6%804 15.3% 701 39.8%2PP Household 1,450 54.8% 86 35.5% 3,352 39.9% 968 29.4% 1,554 38.4% 79 22.9% 2,024 38.6% 478 27.1%3PP Household 358 13.5% 67 27.7% 1,235 14.7% 342 10.4% 694 17.2% 53 15.4% 927 17.7% 241 13.7%4PP Household 343 13.0% 33 13.6% 1,443 17.2% 304 9.2% 645 16.0% 83 24.1% 84316.1% 202 11.5%5PP Household 129 4.9% 19 7.9% 463 5.5% 97 2.9% 316 7.8% 18 5.2% 349 6.7% 111 6.3%6PP Household 1 0.0% 0 0.0% 111 1.3% 24 0.7% 115 2.8% 3 0.9% 185 3.5% 28 1.6%7PP+ Household 32 1.2% 14 5.8% 85 1.0% 0 0.0% 45 1.1% 7 2.0% 106 2.0% 0 0.0%Total 2,644 100% 242 100% 8,394 100% 3,298 100% 4,043 100% 345 100% 5,238 100% 1,761 100%Owner‐ Renter‐ Owner‐ Renter‐ Owner‐ Renter‐ Owner‐ Renter‐Units in Structure Occupied Pct. Occupied Pct. Occupied Pct. Occupied Pct. Occupied Pct. Occupied Pct.Occupied Pct. Occupied Pct.1PP Household 834 18.5% 156 28.6% 824 16.6% 424 52.2% 2,033 24.1% 1,010 37.3% 342 13.0% 83 38.1%2PP Household 1,548 34.4% 241 44.1% 1,920 38.7% 186 22.9% 3,088 36.6% 718 26.5% 1,037 39.3% 96 44.0%3PP Household 678 15.0% 62 11.4% 809 16.3% 63 7.8% 1,389 16.5% 512 18.9% 34513.1% 0 0.0%4PP Household 997 22.1% 0 0.0% 903 18.2% 105 12.9% 1,154 13.7% 234 8.6% 576 21.8% 10 4.6%5PP Household 315 7.0% 80 14.7% 380 7.7% 23 2.8% 437 5.2% 117 4.3% 262 9.9% 2913.3%6PP Household 110 2.4% 7 1.3% 80 1.6% 11 1.4% 195 2.3% 119 4.4% 41 1.6% 0 0.0%7PP+ Household 23 0.5% 0 0.0% 51 1.0% 0 0.0% 147 1.7% 0 0.0% 36 1.4% 0 0.0%Total 4,505 100% 546 100% 4,967 100% 812 100% 8,443 100% 2,710 100% 2,639 100% 218 100%Owner‐ Renter‐ Owner‐ Renter‐ Owner‐ Renter‐Units in Structure Occupied Pct. Occupied Pct. Occupied Pct. Occupied Pct. Occupied Pct. Occupied Pct.1PP Household 3,390 18.4% 1,466 28.0% 2,220 16.8% 667 30.4% 13,157 18.1% 6,195 35.7%2PP Household 6,110 33.2% 1,917 36.6% 4,439 33.5% 539 24.6% 26,522 36.6% 5,308 30.6%3PP Household 3,142 17.1% 815 15.6% 2,367 17.9% 439 20.0% 11,944 16.5% 2,594 14.9%4PP Household 3,754 20.4% 684 13.1% 2,480 18.7% 219 10.0% 13,138 18.1% 1,874 10.8%5PP Household 1,435 7.8% 191 3.6% 1,044 7.9% 247 11.3% 5,130 7.1% 932 5.4%6PP Household 405 2.2% 45 0.9% 517 3.9% 70 3.2% 1,760 2.4% 307 1.8%7PP+ Household 189 1.0% 116 2.2% 175 1.3% 11 0.5% 889 1.2% 148 0.9%Total 18,425 100% 5,234 100% 13,242 100% 2,192 100% 72,540 100% 17,358 100%Sources: U.S. Census Bureau ‐ American Community Survey; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLCWOODBURY COTTAGE GROVE TOTALHUGO MAHTOMEDI OAKDALE LAKE ELMOTABLE D‐11HOUSEHOLD SIZE BY TENUREWASHINGTON COUNTY2014NORTHEAST STILLWATER SOUTHEAST FOREST LAKE
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 42
Non‐family households made up 24.5% of all households in 2010, increasing to 26.0% in
2014. The percentage of people living alone increased from 19.0% in 2010 to 20.8% in
2014. Roommates and unmarried couples comprised 5.6% of Washington County house‐
holds in 2010, compared to 5.1% in 2014.
Between 2010 and 2014, Other family households experienced the largest increase as a
percentage of 28.9%. Other families include single‐parents and unmarried couples with
children. With only one income, these families are most likely to need affordable or modest
housing, both rental and for‐sale.
According to the 2016 National Association of Realtors (NAR) Home Buyer and Seller Gener‐
ational Trends, approximately 67% of all homebuyers were married couples, 24% were sin‐
gle, 7% were unmarried couples, and 2% were other.
24,37828,31911,74516,2634,75129,38729,38715,13819,3524,7620
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Married with
Child
Married w/o
Child
Other Family Living Alone RoommatesHouseholdsHousehold Type
Washington County
2010 and 2014
2010
2014
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 43 2010 2014 2010 2014 2010 2014 2010 2014 2010 2014 2010 2014Number of HouseholdsNortheast 2,884 2,886 1,322 1,593 676 579 239 218 523 354 124 142Stillwater 11,270 11,692 3,600 3,822 2,542 2,454 1,492 1,629 3,064 3,268 572 519Southeast 4,384 4,388 1,885 1,865 1,248 1,299 392 320 653 776 206 128East Total 18,538 18,966 6,807 7,280 4,466 4,332 2,123 2,167 4,240 4,398 902 789Forest Lake 7,014 6,999 2,219 2,228 1,721 1,619 1,104 1,299 1,535 1,505 435348Hugo 4,990 5,051 1,548 1,474 1,485 1,477 671 765 978 990 308 345Mahtomedi 5,574 5,779 2,141 2,261 1,530 1,516 608 598 1,109 1,248 186 156Oakdale 11,213 14,320 3,077 3,168 2,279 2,088 1,953 5,256 3,197 3,043 707 765Lake Elmo 2,779 2,857 1,118 1,235 846 913 288 207 413 425 114 77Woodbury 22,594 23,659 6,470 6,822 7,504 7,839 2,714 2,705 4,614 4,856 1,292 1,437Cottage Grove 15,157 15,434 4,939 4,919 4,547 4,642 2,284 2,141 2,580 2,887 807 845West Total 66,918 74,099 21,512 22,107 19,912 20,094 9,622 12,971 12,02314,954 3,849 3,973Washington Total 85,456 93,065 28,319 29,387 24,378 24,426 11,745 15,138 16,263 19,352 4,751 4,762Percent of TotalNortheast 100% 100% 45.8% 55.2% 23.4% 20.1% 8.3% 7.6% 18.1% 12.3% 4.3% 4.9%Stillwater 100% 100% 31.9% 32.7% 22.6% 21.0% 13.2% 13.9% 27.2% 28.0% 5.1% 4.4%Southeast 100% 100% 43.0% 42.5% 28.5% 29.6% 8.9% 7.3% 14.9% 17.7% 4.7% 2.9%East Total 100% 100% 36.7% 38.4% 24.1% 22.8% 11.5% 11.4% 22.9% 23.2% 4.9% 4.2%Forest Lake 100% 100% 31.6% 31.8% 24.5% 23.1% 15.7% 18.6% 21.9% 21.5% 6.2%5.0%Hugo 100% 100% 31.0% 29.2% 29.8% 29.2% 13.4% 15.1% 19.6% 19.6% 6.2% 6.8%Mahtomedi 100% 100% 38.4% 39.1% 27.4% 26.2% 10.9% 10.3% 19.9% 21.6% 3.3% 2.7%Oakdale 100% 100% 27.4% 22.1% 20.3% 14.6% 17.4% 36.7% 28.5% 21.3% 6.3% 5.3%Lake Elmo 100% 100% 40.2% 43.2% 30.4% 32.0% 10.4% 7.2% 14.9% 14.9% 4.1% 2.7%Woodbury 100% 100% 28.6% 28.8% 33.2% 33.1% 12.0% 11.4% 20.4% 20.5% 5.7% 6.1%Cottage Grove 100% 100% 32.6% 31.9% 30.0% 30.1% 15.1% 13.9% 17.0% 18.7% 5.3% 5.5%West Total 100% 100% 32.1% 29.8% 29.8% 27.1% 14.4% 17.5% 18.0% 20.2% 5.8% 5.4%Washington Total 100% 100% 33.1% 31.6% 28.5% 26.2% 13.7% 16.3% 19.0% 20.8% 5.6% 5.1%* Single‐parent families, unmarried couples with children.Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLCHOUSEHOLD TYPENon‐Family HouseholdsFamily HouseholdsTABLE D‐12WASHINGTON COUNTY2010 & 2014Married w/o Child Married w/ Child RoommatesTotal HH'sOther * Living Alone
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 44
Public School Enrollment Trends
School enrollment trends identify the number of children that are enrolled in the public school
system and also indicates the level of families with school age children residing in the county.
School enrollment in the public school districts that encompass Washington County has de‐
creased since 2010. In some areas, the growth of children that would have occurred as a result
of young families moving into the county has been offset by children of existing older baby
boomer households graduating from high school and leaving home. Table D‐13 provides public
school enrollment trends from 2010 to 2016.
The largest enrollment increase was in the South Washington County (833) District, which
includes most of Woodbury and Cottage Grove. Between 2010 and 2016, the District grew
by 727 students.
The only other districts that had increases in enrollment were White Bear Lake (624) District
which added 167 students, the Mahtomedi (832) District, which added 89 students, and the
Chisago Lake (2144) District which added only eight students between 2010 and 2016. All
of the remaining districts had decreases in enrollment.
There are also two collaborative school districts located in Washington County. East Metro
Integration District 6067 is a collaborative district between St. Paul and nine suburban
school neighbors formed to foster voluntary, inter‐district integration. Northeast Metro
916 is a collaborative district consisting of eleven east metro K‐12 member districts and five
charter schools.
School District & (number) 2010‐11 2011‐12 2012‐13 2013‐14 2014‐15 2015‐16
Chisago Lakes (2144) 3,372 3,344 3,384 3,351 3,361 3,380 8 0.2%
Forest Lake (831) 6,751 6,693 6,767 6,696 6,716 6,595 (156) ‐2.2%
Hastings (200) 4,681 4,658 4,659 4,554 4,548 4,518 (163) ‐3.2%
Mahtomedi (832) 3,226 3,241 3,305 3,321 3,317 3,315 89 2.9%
North St. Paul, Maplewood, Oakdale (622) 10,978 10,885 10,715 10,600 10,603 10,535 (443) ‐3.8%
South Washington County (833) 17,150 17,477 17,643 17,737 17,808 17,877 727 4.4%
Stillwater (834) 8,697 8,556 8,258 8,233 8,229 8,176 (521) ‐5.8%
White Bear Lake (624) 8,146 8,061 8,147 8,179 8,220 8,313 167 2.0%
Total 63,001 62,915 62,878 62,671 62,802 62,709 (292) ‐0.5%
1Included in these counts are students who were enrolled over October 1 of the school year.
Grade Pre‐kindergarten through grade 12 are included in the counts.
2Listed are all school districts that serve Washington County, including those which
are only partly within the county.
Sources: Minnesota Department of Education; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
SCHOOL ENROLLMENT1
FOR WASHINGTON COUNTY2
2010‐2016
Change 10‐16
TABLE D‐13
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 45
Net Worth
Table D‐14 shows household net worth in Washington County in 2016. Simply stated, net
worth is the difference between assets and liabilities, or the total value of assets after the debt
is subtracted. The data was compiled and estimated by ESRI based on the Survey of Consumer
Finances and Federal Reserve Board data.
According to data released by the National Association of Realtors in 2014, the average Ameri‐
can homeowner has a net worth, about 36 times greater than that of a renter. Research is
based on the 2010 to 2013 Federal Reserve survey that showed the average net worth of a
homeowner was $195,400, whereas the average net worth of a renter was $5,400.
Washington County has an estimated average net worth of $955,440 in 2016 and a median
net worth of $287,627. Median net worth is generally a more accurate depiction of wealth
than the average figure. A few households with very large net worth can significantly skew
the average. As a comparison, the Metro Area had an average net worth of $743,598 and
median net worth of $164,978.
Similar to household income, net worth increases as households age and decreases after
they pass their peak earning years and move into retirement. Median and average net
worth peak in the 55 to 64 age cohort, posting an average of $1,372,509 and a median net
worth of over $250,001.
In the county, the Lake Elmo and Southeast submarkets had the highest median net worth
at $500,001. Conversely, the Forest Lake submarket had the lowest median net worth at
$204,324.
Households often delay purchasing homes and instead choose to rent until they acquire
sufficient net worth to cover the costs of a down payment and closing costs associated with
home ownership. Although lending is still somewhat tight (Lending has loosened up some),
interest rates are historically low and are allowing many families who might delay to enter
the home owner market.
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 46
Demographic Summary
Table D‐15 provides a demographic summary that compares Washington County to the remain‐
ing counties in the Metro Area.
• Washington County had the third smallest estimated population size at 244,103 people in
2014. Scott County (135,139 people) and Carver County (94,212 people) were behind
Washington County.
• Washington County had the third highest estimated median household income at $85,126
in 2016, just behind Carver County ($86,391) and Scott County ($86,510). However, Wash‐
ington County had the highest net median net worth at $287,627.
• Washington County had the fourth highest ownership rate at 80.7%, behind Anoka County
(80.9%), Carver County (81.2%), and Scott County (83.9%).
• Washington County had the highest percentage of Married without Children households,
comprising 31.9% of all households in 2014.
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 47 Average Median Average Median Average Median Average Median Average Median Average Median Average Median Average MedianNortheast $1,605,068 $446,989 $32,689 $15,000 $221,351 $107,402 $962,901 $214,662 $1,428,452 $250,001 $1,875,656 $250,001 $2,327,530 $250,001 $1,266,285 $250,001Stillwater $871,370 $210,768 $66,713 $13,869 $198,405 $47,445 $752,513$14,675 $918,840 $250,001 $1,237,568 $250,001 $1,325,211 $250,001 $464,027 $148,566Southeast $1,438,303 $500,001 $134,855 $41,695 $314,114 $151,050 $1,165,667 $250,001 $1,299,213 $250,001 $1,743,912 $250,001 $1,971,482 $250,001 $1,075,578 $250,001East Total $1,115,884 $304,771 $71,689 $14,784 $221,360 $66,452 $866,828 $183,413 $1,098,147 $250,001 $1,498,398 $250,001 $1,660,610 $250,001 $661,593 $214,218Forest Lake $730,887 $204,324 $34,335 $12,175 $152,798 $56,418 $524,013 $153,191 $764,387 $250,001 $1,079,402 $250,001 $1,330,198 $250,001 $679,670 $250,001Hugo $767,517 $254,658 $102,484 $56,326 $225,886 $111,156 $585,256 $197,564 $799,273 $250,001 $1,251,493 $250,001 $1,399,764 $250,001 $779,108 $250,001Mahtomedi $1,551,264 $474,546 $200,259 $36,445 $326,269 $87,808 $1,288,046 $250,001 $1,571,278 $250,001 $1,940,685 $250,001 $2,145,949 $250,001 $890,025 $250,001Oakdale $670,762 $186,925 $38,793 $12,717 $149,361 $56,661 $443,167 $122,928 $775,835 $250,001 $1,080,672 $250,001 $1,141,523 $250,001 $460,165 $193,719Lake Elmo $1,651,014 $500,001 $1,450,896 $26,414 $363,980 $123,140 $1,374,692 $250,001 $1,530,398 $250,001 $1,530,398 $250,001 $2,014,778 $250,001 $2,296,329 $250,001Woodbury $976,149 $353,070 $134,582 $30,348 $260,394 $102,180 $905,614$250,001 $1,096,412 $250,001 $1,363,068 $250,001 $1,605,063 $250,001 $780,396 $250,001Cottage Grove $753,606 $257,345 $71,405 $27,810 $193,704 $100,765 $52,822 $193,657 $867,687 $250,001 $1,124,850 $250,001 $1,299,319 $250,001$623,788 $250,001West Total $912,895 $283,676 $87,215 $20,778 $215,740 $87,908 $728,655$209,381 $1,012,646 $250,001 $1,331,724 $250,001 $1,509,062 $250,001 $716,533 $250,001Washington Total $955,440 $287,627$85,056 $19,660 $216,536 $84,577 $750,711 $205,461 $1,030,652 $250,001 $1,372,509 $250,001 $1,549,403 $250,001 $700,977 $250,001Sources: ESRI; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLCWASHINGTON COUNTY2016TABLE D‐14ESTIMATED NET WORTH BY AGE OF HOUSEHOLDER75+TotalAge of Householder15‐24 25‐34 35‐44 45‐54 55‐64 65‐74
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 48Demographic SummaryNum Pct. Num Pct. Num Pct. Num Pct. Num Pct. Num Pct. Num Pct.Total Population and HouseholdsPopulation 336,316 100% 94,212 100% 405,521 100% 1,184,091 100% 521,265 100% 135,139 100% 244,103 100%Households 123,446 100% 33,813 100% 155,220 100% 484,868 100% 206,156 100% 46,214 100% 89,898 100%Age DistributionUnder 18 84,366 25.1% 27,167 28.8% 103,613 25.6% 265,695 22.4% 121,414 23.3% 39,762 29.4% 63,004 25.8%18 to 24 27,322 8.1% 6,749 7.2% 31,865 7.9% 110,187 9.3% 59,318 11.4% 9,416 7.0% 18,461 7.6%25 to 34 44,535 13.2% 10,904 11.6% 54,904 13.5% 198,894 16.8% 82,819 15.9% 17,794 13.2% 29,586 12.1%35 to 44 46,703 13.9% 13,965 14.8% 55,647 13.7% 156,008 13.2% 61,398 11.8% 21,927 16.2% 33,058 13.5%45 to 54 55,423 16.5% 16,273 17.3% 64,899 16.0% 168,053 14.2% 68,420 13.1% 21,483 15.9% 40,045 16.4%55 to 64 36,766 10.9% 9,295 9.9% 43,649 10.8% 127,046 10.7% 55,094 10.6% 1,374 1.0% 27,108 11.1%65 to 74 22,258 6.6% 4,896 5.2% 26,009 6.4% 75,367 6.4% 33,908 6.5% 6,993 5.2% 16,795 6.9%75+ 14,076 4.2% 3,763 4.0% 18,934 4.7% 65,505 5.5% 30,983 5.9% 4,641 3.4% 11,775 4.8%Household Income*Average Household IncomeMedian Household IncomeAverage Weekly WageAverage Weekly Wage (2015)Net Worth*Average Net WorthMedian Net WorthHousehold TenureOwn 99,878 80.9% 27,463 81.2% 116,845 75.3% 306,288 63.2% 122,256 59.3% 38,775 83.9% 72,540 80.7%Rent 23,568 19.1% 6,350 18.8% 38,375 24.7% 178,580 36.8% 83,900 40.7% 7,439 16.1% 17,358 19.3%Household TypeMarried With Children 32,323 26.2% 11,809 34.9% 39,199 25.3% 93,337 19.2% 37,287 18.1% 16,240 35.1% 25,137 28.0%Married Without Children 37,527 30.4% 10,234 30.3% 45,991 29.6% 118,007 24.3% 48,186 23.4% 13,637 29.5% 28,676 31.9%Other 18,500 15.0% 3,535 10.5% 23,020 14.8% 69,294 14.3% 34,541 16.8% 5,502 11.9% 11,971 13.3%Living Alone 28,014 22.7% 6,793 20.1% 37,716 24.3% 159,148 32.8% 69,210 33.6% 8,597 18.6% 19,352 21.5%Roommates 7,082 5.7% 1,442 4.3% 9,294 6.0% 45,082 9.3% 16,932 8.2% 2,238 4.8% 4,762 5.3%* Data From ESRI 2016Source: U.S. Census Bureau (American Community Survey 2010‐2014); ESRI Inc.; MN DEED; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC$1,004$962$846$896$1,150$1,274$989$287,627$213,245 $286,839 $219,951 $130,507 $83,326 $280,355$102,555 $101,567$85,126$720,474 $911,891 $808,033 $734,628 $587,665 $826,540 $955,440$70,464 $86,391 $74,995 $65,033 $55,460 $86,510$84,116 $107,431 $92,577 $91,395 $74,375TABLE D‐15DEMOGRAPHIC SUMMARYWASHINGTON COUNTY COMPARED TO OTHER METRO AREA COUNTIES2014Anoka Carver Dakota Hennepin Ramsey Scott Washington
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 49
Employment Trends
Employment characteristics are an important component in assessing housing needs in any
given market area. These trends are important to consider since job growth can generally fuel
household and population growth as people generally desire to live near where they work.
Long commute times and the redevelopment of core cities have encouraged households to
move closer to major employment centers.
Employment Growth and Projections
Table E‐1 shows employment growth trends and projections from 1990 to 2030 based on the
most recent information available from the Minnesota Department of Employment and Eco‐
nomic Development (DEED). Data for 2010, 2020, and 2030 is provided by the Metropolitan
Council while data for 2016 is from Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic
Development (DEED) and represents 1st quarter 2016.
Washington County is estimated to experience a 23.6% employment growth (16,983 jobs)
between 2010 and 2020. In comparison, the Metro Area is estimated to increase by 16.0%
(247,208 jobs).
Employment projections from 2020 to 2030 show that Washington County is projected to
grow by 8,580 jobs (9.7%). The Twin Cities Metro Area is projected to grow by 121,970
(6.8%). The projected higher increase for Washington County reflects relatively strong em‐
ployment growth projected for the larger cities such as Woodbury, Oakdale, Cottage Grove,
Stillwater and Oak Park Heights. The proportional increase however, most likely reflects the
lower numerical number for overall employment growth identified for the county, which
results in a higher proportional increase. In addition, the completion of the new River
Crossing between Wisconsin and Minnesota.
All of the submarkets in Washington County are estimated to experience job growth during
the decade, with Woodbury (4,662 jobs, or 24.0%), Stillwater area (3,160 jobs, or 17.5%),
and the Oakdale area (2,654 jobs, or 30.6%) leading the county.
Data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages indicates that Washington
County gained 5,958 jobs (7.8%) between 2010 and the first quarter of 2016. The majority
of the county’s job growth over this period occurred in Woodbury which added 2,394 jobs
(12.3%). Oakdale also experienced significant growth, adding 1,849 jobs (21.3%).
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 50No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct.Northeast 709 1.0% 755 1.0% 880 1.0% 990 1.0% 171 24.1% 110 12.5%Stillwater 18,010 25.0% 17,488 22.5% 21,170 23.8% 22,950 23.8% 3,160 17.5% 1,780 8.4%Southeast 1,808 2.5% 2,269 2.9% 2,140 2.4% 2,260 2.4% 332 18.4% 120 5.6%East Total 20,52728.6%20,51226.3%24,19027.2%26,20027.2% 3,663 17.8% 2,010 8.3%Forest Lake 6,449 9.0% 6,885 8.8% 7,800 8.8% 8,500 8.8% 1,351 20.9% 700 9.0%Hugo 1,973 2.7% 2,574 3.3% 3,000 3.4% 3,500 3.4% 1,027 52.1% 500 16.7%Mahtomedi 3,279 4.6% 2,921 3.8% 3,840 4.3% 4,170 4.3% 561 17.1% 330 8.6%Oakdale 8,676 12.1% 10,525 13.5% 11,330 12.7% 12,630 12.7% 2,654 30.6% 1,300 11.5%Lake Elmo 1,941 2.7% 2,510 3.2% 2,900 3.3% 3,350 3.3% 959 49.4% 450 15.5%Woodbury 19,438 27.0% 21,832 28.0% 24,100 27.1% 26,400 27.1% 4,662 24.0% 2,300 9.5%Cottage Grove 9,614 13.4% 10,096 13.0% 11,720 13.2% 12,710 13.2% 2,106 21.9% 990 8.4%West Total 51,370 71.4% 57,343 73.7% 64,690 72.8% 71,260 72.8%13,320 25.9% 6,570 10.2%Washington Total 71,897 100.0% 77,855 100.0% 88,880 100.0% 97,460 100.0% 16,98323.6% 8,580 9.7%Twin Cities Metro Area247,208 16.0% 121,970 6.8%Note: Twin Cities Metro represents the 7‐County planning regionSources: MN Dept of Employment and Economic Development; Metropolitan Council; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC20101,543,8722010‐2020 2020‐20302016 Q1 20301,664,09420201,791,080 1,913,050ForecastActualEmploymentEstimateTABLE EMP‐1EMPLOYMENT GROWTH TRENDS AND PROJECTIONSWASHINGTON COUNTY2010‐2030Change
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 51
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 52
Resident Labor Force
Table E‐2 presents resident employment data for Washington County from 2000 through
September 2016. Resident employment data is calculated as an annual average and reveals the
work force and number of employed people living in the county. It is important to note that not
all of these individuals necessarily work in the county. The data is from the Minnesota Depart‐
ment of Employment and Economic Development.
Resident employment in Washington County increased by 8,029 people between 2000 and
2010 (7.0%). The number of individuals in the labor market also increased, but at a higher
rate than resident employment. This resulted in an increase in unemployment from 2.5%
(2000) to 6.7% (2010).
Washington County’s unemployment rate has been lower than the State of Minnesota in
every year.
Since 2011, the unemployment rate in Washington County gradually decreased to 3.2% at
the end of 2015. In addition, unemployment rate of less than 5.0% suggest that some in‐
dustries may be experiencing job shortages for some types of positions. As of September
2016, the unemployment rate is slightly higher than at the end of 2015 at 3.4%, but still be‐
low the State and nation at 3.9% and 5.0%, respectively. The low unemployment rates indi‐
cate that the economy is continuing to recover.
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 53
Total Minnesota U.S.
Labor Total Total Unemployment Unemployment Unemployment
Year Force Employed Unemployed Rate Rate Rate
2000 118,092 115,159 2,933 2.5% 3.2% 4.0%
2001 119,974 116,379 3,595 3.0% 3.8% 4.7%
2002 120,946 116,297 4,649 3.8% 4.5% 5.8%
2003 122,962 117,815 5,147 4.2% 4.9% 6.0%
2004 123,805 118,788 5,017 4.1% 4.7% 5.6%
2005 125,591 121,213 4,378 3.5% 4.1% 5.1%
2006 127,484 122,962 4,522 3.5% 4.0% 4.6%
2007 127,837 122,731 5,106 4.0% 4.6% 4.6%
2008 129,322 122,858 6,464 5.0% 5.4% 5.8%
2009 128,886 119,550 9,336 7.2% 7.8% 9.3%
2010 132,046 123,188 8,858 6.7% 7.4% 9.6%
2011 133,063 125,221 7,842 5.9% 6.5% 8.9%
2012 134,228 127,359 6,869 5.1% 5.6% 8.1%
2013 135,478 129,519 5,959 4.4% 4.9% 7.4%
2014 136,504 121,547 14,957 3.6% 4.7% 6.2%
2015 137,668 133,330 4,338 3.2% 3.7% 5.3%
2016* 139,376 134,645 4,731 3.4% 3.9% 5.0%
Change 2000‐10 13,954 8,029 5,925 4.2% 4.2% 5.6%
Change 2011‐15 4,605 8,109 ‐3,504 ‐2.7% ‐2.8% ‐3.6%
*through September 2016
Sources: Minnesota Workforce Center; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
2000 through 2016 (3rd QTR)
TABLE EMP‐2
RESIDENT EMPLOYMENT (ANNUAL AVERAGE)
WASHINGTON COUNTY
Covered Employment by Industry
The following tables display information on employment and average wages in each of the
submarkets in Washington County along with a summary for the entire county and the Metro
Area. Covered employment data is calculated as an annual average and reveals the number of
jobs in the submarket, which are covered by unemployment insurance. Most farm jobs, self‐
employed people, and some other types of jobs are not covered by unemployment insurance
and are not included in the table. The data is from the Minnesota Department of Employment
and Economic Development.
Washington County
There were 79,112 jobs in Washington County as of 2015 which, based on the 2015 annual
count of employed residents, represented a jobs to employed resident ratio of 0.59 com‐
pared to 1.05 in the Metro Area. This ratio indicates that there were more employed resi‐
dents than jobs in the county, suggesting that many residents commuted outside the area
for employment. The ratio of 1.05 for the Metro Area means that there were more jobs
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 54
than employed residents, indicating that employers brought in workers from outside the
Metro Area.
As illustrated in the chart below, the county’s employment proportions were higher than
the Metro Area in 10 out of 19 sectors.
Industry Establish‐
ments
Employ‐
ment
Weekly
Wage
Establish‐
ments
Employ‐
ment
Weekly
Wage
Total, All Industries 5,281 76,684 $810 5,231 79,112 $846 2,428 3.2%$36 4.4%
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 45 687 $619 44 712 $674 25 3.6% $55 8.9%
Mining 7 80 $1,381 7 69 $1,416 ‐11 ‐13.8% $35 2.5%
Utilities 534 3,133 $2,123 516 3,338 $2,169 205 6.5%$46 2.2%
Construction 205 7,562 $1,189 203 7,990 $1,121 428 5.7% ‐$68 ‐5.7%
Manufacturing 6 285 $1,189 7 298 $1,229 13 4.6% $40 3.4%
Wholesale Trade 208 1,863 $1,331 203 1,957 $1,397 94 5.0% $66 5.0%
Retail Trade 689 12,504 $463 684 13,051 $484 547 4.4% $21 4.5%
Transportation & Warehousing 143 2,568 $763 138 2,584 $813 16 0.6% $50 6.6%
Information 65 685 $715 60 699 $735 14 2.0% $20 2.8%
Finance & Insurance 332 3,519 $1,354 337 3,306 $1,459 ‐213 ‐6.1% $105 7.8%
Real Estate, Rental & Leasing 268 776 $697 258 790 $716 14 1.8% $19 2.7%
Professional, Scientific & Tech Services 632 2,956 $1,222 643 3,177 $1,257 221 7.5% $35 2.9%
Management of Companies & Enterprises 42 1,412 $1,776 43 1,503 $2,058 91 6.4% $282 15.9%
Admin Support & Waste Management & Remediation Service 283 3,061 $834 268 3,135 $876 74 2.4% $42 5.0%
Educational Services 135 7,322 $815 139 7,330 $823 8 0.0% $8 0.0%
Health Care & Social Assistance 543 10,943 $890 546 11,408 $928 465 4.2% $38 4.3%
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 131 2,109 $303 123 2,121 $311 12 0.6% $8 2.6%
Accommodation & Food Services 382 8,583 $299 383 8,949 $314 366 4.3% $15 5.0%
Other Services (except Public Administration) 578 3,094 $529 578 3,074 $496 ‐20 ‐0.6% ‐$33 ‐6.2%
Public Administration 55 3,547 $947 54 3,617 $998 70 2.0% $51 5.4%
Unclassified Establishments ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Total, All Industries 77,971 1,643,371 $1,119 76,240 1,673,843 $1,159 30,472 1.9%$40 3.6%
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 258 2,800 $573 251 2,765 $621 ‐35 ‐1.3% $48 8.4%
Mining 46 676 $1,876 44 667 $1,885 ‐9 ‐1.3% $9 0.5%
Utilities 81 5,983 $1,964 81 6,130 $1,630 147 2.5% ‐$334 ‐17.0%
Construction 6,404 61,575 $1,377 6,165 66,735 $1,304 5,160 8.4% ‐$73 ‐5.3%
Manufacturing 4,066 165,291 $1,964 3,997 168,415 $1,423 3,124 1.9% ‐$541 ‐27.5%
Wholesale Trade 5,126 79,723 $1,595 4,955 80,378 $1,629 655 0.8% $34 2.1%
Retail Trade 8,933 160,265 $574 8,707 163,501 $594 3,236 2.0% $20 3.5%
Transportation & Warehousing 1,735 62,233 $1,046 1,688 63,177 $1,070 944 1.5% $24 2.3%
Information 1,382 39,795 $1,445 1,329 38,731 $1,507 ‐1,064 ‐2.7% $62 4.3%
Finance & Insurance 4,597 101,592 $1,994 4,545 105,580 $2,074 3,988 3.9% $80 4.0%
Real Estate, Rental & Leasing 3,826 31,133 $1,182 3,715 31,128 $1,252 ‐5 0.0% $70 5.9%
Professional, Scientific & Tech Services 10,431 109,674 $1,718 10,136 112,079 $1,763 2,405 2.2% $45 2.6%
Management of Companies & Enterprises 776 69,857 $2,274 782 69,100 $2,387 ‐757 ‐1.1% $113 5.0%
Admin Support & Waste Management & Remediation Service 3,900 94,978 $675 3,811 95,709 $715 731 0.8% $40 5.9%
Educational Services 2,012 126,788 $966 2,008 128,613 $979 1,825 1.4% $13 1.3%
Health Care & Social Assistance 7,807 245,201 $911 7,742 251,560 $947 6,359 2.6% $36 4.0%
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 1,411 30,656 $703 1,396 31,705 $736 1,049 3.4% $33 4.7%
Accommodation & Food Services 5,644 131,519 $358 5,593 133,228 $382 1,709 1.3% $24 6.7%
Other Services (except Public Administration) 8,680 55,462 $636 8,441 55,919 $660 457 0.8% $24 3.8%
Public Administration 857 68,166 $1,103 858 68,837 $1,151 671 1.0% $48 4.4%
Unclassified Establishments ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Lower than Metro Higher than Metro (percent)
Sources: Minnesota Workforce Center; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
TABLE EMP‐3
QUARTERLY CENSUS OF EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES
WASHINGTON COUNTY
2014 2015 Change 2014 ‐ 2015
Employment
# %
Wage
# %
WASHINGTON COUNTY
METRO AREA
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 55
The Education and Health Care & Social Assistance industries were the largest employment
sectors in the county, providing a combined 18,738 jobs in 2016 (24% of the total). The Re‐
tail and Construction sectors are also major employers with 13,051 workers (16.5% of the
total jobs) and 7,990 workers (10.1% of the total jobs), respectively.
In the county, the most notable job losses occurred in the Finance and Insurance sector
(213 jobs for a 6.1% decline). The most significant increase occurred in the Retail Trade sec‐
tor (547 jobs for a 4.4% increase).
From the end of 2014 to the end of 2015, the average weekly wage in Washington County
increased 4.4% ($36) to $846. By comparison, wages increased 3.6% ($40) in the Metro Ar‐
ea to $1,159. Average wages were lower in the county than in the Metro Area in 17 of the
20 industry sectors. Average wages were higher in the county for Agriculture etal., Utilities
and Administrative Support/Waste Management etal.
The table highlights three employment sectors where the proportion of total employment is
higher than the Metro Area (shown in the peach color) and three where the proportion of
employment is lower than the Metro Area (shown in the rose color). We selected industries
that typically might tend to pay higher weekly wage levels. As shown, Washington Co. has
higher proportions of jobs in Utilities, Construction and Retail Trade and lower proportions
of jobs in the Manufacturing, Information and Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
industries.
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting
Mining
Utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transportation & Warehousing
Information
Finance & Insurance
Real Estate, Rental & Leasing
Professional, Scientific & Tech Services
Management of Companies & Enterprises
Admin Support & Waste Management &…
Educational Services
Health Care & Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation
Accommodation & Food Services
Other Services (except Public Administration)
Public Administration
2015 Employment: % of Total
Washington County
Metro Area
Washington Co.
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 56
Northeast
There were 777 jobs in the Northeast submarket as of 2015 which represented roughly
1.0% of all covered employment in Washington County.
• The Education Services industry was, by far, the largest employment sector in the Northeast
submarket, providing 153 jobs in 2015 (20% of the total).
• Between 2014 and 2015, the number of employees in the Northeast submarket increased
slightly (4.3%) while the county experienced a 3.2% increase in jobs. By comparison, the
Metro Area gained 1.9% during the same time period. Within the Northeast submarket,
there was minimal gain and/or loss in any industry sector.
From 2014 to 2015, the average weekly wage in the Northeast submarket increased 4.2%
($27) to $671. By comparison, wages increased 4.4% in Washington County and 3.6% in the
Metro Area.
At $671, the average weekly wage for all industries in the Northeast submarket was lower
than the county ($846). Average weekly wages were lower in the Northeast submarket
than in the county as a whole for most industry sectors other than Transportation & Ware‐
housing, Professional/Scientific & Tech Services, Information, Health Care & Social Assis‐
tance, Educational Services, and Accommodation & Food Services.
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 57
Industry Establish‐
ments
Employ‐
ment
Weekly
Wage
Establish‐
ments
Employ‐
ment
Weekly
Wage
Total, All Industries 161 745 $644 155 777 $671 32 4.3% $27 4.2%
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Mining ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Utilities ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Construction 42 80 $771 35 85 $829 5 6.3% $58 7.5%
Manufacturing 5 29 $711 4 27 $807 ‐2 ‐6.9% $96 13.5%
Wholesale Trade 3 6 $629 ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Retail Trade 11 57 $353 ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Transportation & Warehousing 2 10 $1,068 2 11 $1,100 1 10.0% $32 3.0%
Information ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Finance & Insurance ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Real Estate, Rental & Leasing ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Professional, Scientific & Tech Services 9 24 $631 7 22 $857 ‐2 ‐8.3% $226 35.8%
Management of Companies & Enterprises ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Admin Support & Waste Management & Remediation 8 41 $558 9 38 $644 ‐3 ‐7.3% $86 15.4%
Educational Services 3 157 $1,152 3 153 $1,214 ‐4 0.0% $62 0.0%
Health Care & Social Assistance 8 66 $281 8 63 $298 ‐3 ‐4.5% $17 6.0%
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ 4 7 $198 ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Accommodation & Food Services ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ 3 8 $331 ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Other Services (except Public Administration) 16 17 $620 11 14 $460 ‐3 ‐17.6% ‐$160 ‐25.8%
Public Administration 3 48 $352 3 45 $381 ‐3 ‐6.3% $29 8.2%
Unclassified Establishments ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Sources: Minnesota Workforce Center; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
TABLE EMP‐4
QUARTERLY CENSUS OF EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES
NORTHEAST
2014 2015 Change 2014 ‐ 2015
Employment
# %
Wage
# %
NORTHEAST
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 58
$‐ $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500
Total, All Industries
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting
Mining
Utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transportation & Warehousing
Information
Finance & Insurance
Real Estate, Rental & Leasing
Professional, Scientific & Tech Services
Management of Companies & Enterprises
Admin Support & Waste Management…
Educational Services
Health Care & Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation
Accommodation & Food Services
Other Services (except Public…
Public Administration
2015 Average Weekly Wage
Northeast Submarket
Metro Area
Washington Co
Northeast
Stillwater
There were 18,206 jobs in the Stillwater submarket as 2015 which represented roughly 23%
of all covered employment in Washington County.
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 59
Industry Establish‐
ments
Employ‐
ment
Weekly
Wage
Establish‐
ments
Employ‐
ment
Weekly
Wage
Total, All Industries 996 17,952 $893 987 18,206 $945 254 1.4% $52 5.8%
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 4 20 $427 ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Mining ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Utilities 1 6 $1,261 ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Construction 11 264 $1,123 9 218 $1,094 ‐46 ‐17.4% ‐$29 ‐2.6%
Manufacturing 18 525 $1,152 21 569 $1,110 44 8.4% ‐$42 ‐3.6%
Wholesale Trade 32 221 $1,333 31 222 $1,356 1 0.5% $23 1.7%
Retail Trade 151 2,385 $441 150 2,400 $469 15 0.6% $28 6.3%
Transportation & Warehousing 21 170 $801 4 20 $1,114 ‐150 ‐88.2% $313 39.1%
Information 10 41 $921 8 31 $869 ‐10 ‐24.4% ‐$52 ‐5.6%
Finance & Insurance 48 372 $1,555 43 327 $1,760 ‐45 ‐12.1% $205 13.2%
Real Estate, Rental & Leasing 50 117 $709 53 134 $666 17 14.5% ‐$43 ‐6.1%
Professional, Scientific & Tech Services 107 423 $1,227 115 451 $1,277 28 6.6% $50 4.1%
Management of Companies & Enterprises 7 98 $2,094 6 95 $2,442 ‐3 ‐3.1% $348 16.6%
Admin Support & Waste Management & Remediation 31 86 $437 26 128 $519 42 48.8% $82 18.8%
Educational Services 20 979 $695 19 1,023 $694 44 4.5% ‐$1 ‐0.1%
Health Care & Social Assistance 85 2,563 $1,113 87 2,624 $1,136 61 2.4%$23 2.1%
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 19 276 $285 18 272 $280 ‐4 ‐1.4% ‐$5 ‐1.8%
Accommodation & Food Services 64 1,253 $277 60 1,267 $299 14 1.1% $22 7.9%
Other Services (except Public Administration) 104 637 $469 107 624 $490 ‐13 ‐2.0% $21 4.5%
Public Administration 21 2,209 $1,006 21 2,242 $1,073 33 1.5% $67 6.7%
Unclassified Establishments ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Sources: Minnesota Workforce Center; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
TABLE EMP‐5
QUARTERLY CENSUS OF EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES
STILLWATER
2014 2015 Change 2014 ‐ 2015
Employment
# %
Wage
# %
STILLWATER
• The Health Care & Social Assistance industry is the largest employment sector in the Stillwa‐
ter submarket, providing 2,624 jobs in 2015 (14% of the total).
Between 2014 and 2015, the number of employees in the Stillwater submarket increased
slightly (1.4%) while the county experienced a 3.2% increase in jobs. By comparison, the
Metro Area increased their covered employment base by 1.9% during the same time period.
Within the Stillwater submarket, the most notable job loss occurred in the Transportation
and Warehousing sector (‐150 jobs for an ‐88% decline), while the most significant percent‐
age increase occurred in the Administrative Support/Waste Mgmt./Remediation sector with
an increase of 49% or 42 jobs.
From 2014 to 2015, the average weekly wage in the Stillwater submarket increased 5.8%
($52) to $749. By comparison, wages increased 4.4% in Washington County and 3.6% in the
Metro Area.
At $945, the average weekly wage for all industries in the Stillwater submarket was higher
than the county ($846). Average wages were higher in the Stillwater submarket in the
Management of Companies & Enterprises, Transportation & Warehousing, Finance and In‐
surance, Health Care & Social Assistance, Information, Public Administration, Professional,
Scientific, & Tech Services than in the county.
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 60
$‐ $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500
Total, All Industries
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting
Mining
Utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transportation & Warehousing
Information
Finance & Insurance
Real Estate, Rental & Leasing
Professional, Scientific & Tech Services
Management of Companies & Enterprises
Admin Support & Waste Management &…
Educational Services
Health Care & Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation
Accommodation & Food Services
Other Services (except Public Administration)
Public Administration
2015 Average Weekly Wage
Stillwater Submarket
Metro Area
Washington Co
Stillwater
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 61
Southeast
There were 2,151 jobs in the Southeast submarket as 2015 which represented roughly 2.7%
of all covered employment in Washington County.
Industry Establish‐
ments
Employ‐
ment
Weekly
Wage
Establish‐
ments
Employ‐
ment
Weekly
Wage
Total, All Industries 243 2,038 $690 234 2,151 $735 113 5.5% $45 6.5%
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 4 19 $555 4 15 $561 ‐4 ‐21.1% $6 1.1%
Mining ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐‐‐‐‐
Utilities ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Construction 20 113 $975 22 141 $902 28 24.8% ‐$73 ‐7.5%
Manufacturing ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ 4 20 $794 ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Wholesale Trade 5 8 $1,174 ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Retail Trade 16 144 $582 17 143 $561 ‐1 ‐0.7% ‐$21 ‐3.6%
Transportation & Warehousing 9 75 $1,327 9 112 $1,274 37 49.3% ‐$53 ‐4.0%
Information ‐‐ ‐‐‐‐‐‐ ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐
Finance & Insurance ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Real Estate, Rental & Leasing 4 6 $332 4 5 $462 ‐1 ‐16.7% $130 39.2%
Professional, Scientific & Tech Services 26 61 $776 21 32 $1,066 ‐29 ‐47.5% $290 37.4%
Management of Companies & Enterprises ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Admin Support & Waste Management & Remediation 16 115 $736 15 149 $784 34 29.6% $48 6.5%
Educational Services 1 8 $901 2 61 $930 53 662.5% $29 3.2%
Health Care & Social Assistance 7 56 $259 9 88 $445 32 57.1% $186 71.8%
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Accommodation & Food Services ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Other Services (except Public Administration) 14 191 $1,479 14 36 $537 ‐155 ‐81.2% ‐$942 ‐63.7%
Public Administration 6 58 $212 6 58 $219 0 0.0% $7 3.3%
Unclassified Establishments ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐‐‐‐‐
Sources: Minnesota Workforce Center; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
TABLE EMP‐6
QUARTERLY CENSUS OF EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES
SOUTHEAST
2014 2015 Change 2014 ‐ 2015
Employment
# %
Wage
# %
SOUTHEAST
The Admin Support & Waste Management & remediation industry was the largest employ‐
ment sector in the Southeast submarket, providing 149 jobs in 2015 (7% of the total).
Between 2014 and 2015, the number of employees in the Southeast submarket increased
by 113 employees (5.5%) while the county experienced a 3.2% increase in jobs. By compari‐
son, the Metro Area increased by 1.9% in jobs during the same time period.
Within the Southeast submarket, the most notable job losses occurred in the Other Services
sector (‐155 jobs for a ‐81% decline), while the most hiring occurred in the Educational Ser‐
vices sector (53 jobs for a 663% increase).
From 2014 to 2015, the average weekly wage in the Southeast submarket increased 6.5%
($45) to $735. By comparison, wages increased 4.4% in Washington County and 3.6% in the
Metro Area.
At $735, the average weekly wage for all industries in the Southeast submarket was lower
than the county ($846). Average wages were lower in the Southeast submarket than in the
county in most industry sectors but higher in the Transportation & Warehousing, Educa‐
tional Services, Retail Trade, and Other Services sectors.
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 62
$‐ $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500
Total, All Industries
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting
Mining
Utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transportation & Warehousing
Information
Finance & Insurance
Real Estate, Rental & Leasing
Professional, Scientific & Tech Services
Management of Companies & Enterprises
Admin Support & Waste Management &…
Educational Services
Health Care & Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation
Accommodation & Food Services
Other Services (except Public Administration)
Public Administration
2015 Average Weekly Wage
Southeast Submarket
Metro Area
Washington Co
Southeast
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 63
Forest Lake
There were 6,892 jobs in the Forest Lake submarket as 2015 which represented roughly
8.7% of all jobs in Washington County.
The Retail Trade industry was the largest employment sector in the Forest Lake submarket,
providing 1,770 jobs in 2015 (25.7% of the total).
Between 2014 and 2015, the number of business establishments in the Forest Lake submar‐
ket grew by 10 and the number of employees increased by 399 employees (6.1%) while the
county experienced a 3.2% increase in jobs. By comparison, the Metro Area increased by
1.9% in jobs during the same time period.
Industry Establish‐
ments
Employ‐
ment
Weekly
Wage
Establish‐
ments
Employ‐
ment
Weekly
Wage
Total, All Industries 491 6,493 $604 501 6,892 $636 399 6.1% $32 5.3%
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Mining ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Utilities ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Construction 47 289 $1,090 50 364 $1,110 75 26.0% $20 1.8%
Manufacturing 33 523 $897 32 561 $919 38 7.3% $22 2.5%
Wholesale Trade 11 71 $818 12 65 $765 ‐6 ‐8.5% ‐$53 ‐6.5%
Retail Trade 90 1,707 $518 90 1,770 $551 63 3.7% $33 6.4%
Transportation & Warehousing 11 189 $638 10 203 $672 14 7.4% $34 5.3%
Information 5 46 $762 4 38 $691 ‐8 ‐17.4% ‐$71 ‐9.3%
Finance & Insurance 33 186 $937 35 178 $1,036 ‐8 ‐4.3% $99 10.6%
Real Estate, Rental & Leasing 34 139 $498 34 136 $582 ‐3 ‐2.2% $84 16.9%
Professional, Scientific & Tech Services ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Management of Companies & Enterprises ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Admin Support & Waste Management & Remediation Services 25 255 $626 22 246 $666 ‐9 ‐3.5% $40 6.4%
Educational Services 14 959 $664 16 997 $692 38 4.0% $28 4.2%
Health Care & Social Assistance 45 583 $664 47 618 $723 35 6.0% $59 8.9%
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 11 94 $246 12 108 $254 14 14.9% $8 3.3%
Accommodation & Food Services 40 850 $271 43 958 $287 108 12.7% $16 5.9%
Other Services (except Public Administration) 42 342 $386 48 370 $416 28 8.2% $30 7.8%
Public Administration 3 96 $1,026 3 105 $1,069 9 9.4% $43 4.2%
Unclassified Establishments ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Sources: Minnesota Workforce Center; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
TABLE EMP‐7
QUARTERLY CENSUS OF EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES
FOREST LAKE
2014 2015 Change 2014 ‐ 2015
Employment
# %
Wage
# %
FOREST LAKE
Within the Forest Lake submarket, there were no notable job losses, while hiring occurred
in many sectors with the Accommodation & Food Services sector increasing the largest (108
jobs for a 2.7% increase). Construction had the highest proportional increase of 26%.
From 2014 to 2015, the average weekly wage in the Forest Lake submarket increased 5.3%
($32) to $636. By comparison, wages increased 4.4% in Washington County and 3.6% in the
Metro Area.
At $636, the average weekly wage for all industries in the Forest Lake submarket was lower
than the county ($846). Average wages were lower in the Forest Lake submarket than in
the county in all industry sectors except Public Administration and Retail Trade.
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 64
$‐ $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500
Total, All Industries
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and…
Mining
Utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transportation & Warehousing
Information
Finance & Insurance
Real Estate, Rental & Leasing
Professional, Scientific & Tech Services
Management of Companies &…
Admin Support & Waste Management…
Educational Services
Health Care & Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation
Accommodation & Food Services
Other Services (except Public…
Public Administration
2015 Average Weekly Wage
Metro Area
Washington Co
Forest Lake
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 65
Hugo
There were 2,737 jobs in the Hugo submarket as 2015 which represented roughly 3.5% of
all jobs in Washington County.
Industry Establish‐
ments
Employ‐
ment
Weekly
Wage
Establish‐
ments
Employ‐
ment
Weekly
Wage
Total, All Industries 256 2,604 $814 250 2,737 $850 133 5.1% $36 4.4%
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 7 29 $445 7 26 $496 ‐3 ‐10.3% $51 11.5%
Mining ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Utilities ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Construction 51 429 $1,115 49 442 $1,190 13 3.0% $75 6.7%
Manufacturing 18 635 $1,172 19 674 $1,190 39 6.1% $18 1.5%
Wholesale Trade 9 94 $1,083 8 91 $1,451 ‐3 ‐3.2% $368 34.0%
Retail Trade 21 228 $424 19 240 $426 12 5.3% $2 0.5%
Transportation & Warehousing 6 36 $718 6 32 $854 ‐4 ‐11.1% $136 18.9%
Information ‐‐ ‐‐‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐
Finance & Insurance 12 38 $807 12 38 $847 0 0.0% $40 5.0%
Real Estate, Rental & Leasing ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Professional, Scientific & Tech Services ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Management of Companies & Enterprises ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Admin Support & Waste Management & Remediation 22 160 $776 18 165 $832 5 3.1% $56 7.2%
Educational Services 2 117 $933 2 121 $949 4 3.4% $16 1.7%
Health Care & Social Assistance 30 377 $496 31 389 $560 12 3.2% $64 12.9%
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 8 80 $292 6 89 $263 9 11.3% ‐$29 ‐9.9%
Accommodation & Food Services 11 150 $302 15 188 $315 38 25.3% $13 4.3%
Other Services (except Public Administration) 34 126 $438 33 135 $464 9 7.1% $26 5.9%
Public Administration 1 26 $1,128 1 27 $1,110 1 3.8% ‐$18 ‐1.6%
Unclassified Establishments ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Sources: Minnesota Workforce Center; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
TABLE EMP‐8
QUARTERLY CENSUS OF EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES
HUGO
2014 2015 Change 2014 ‐ 2015
Employment
# %
Wage
# %
HUGO
• The Manufacturing industry was the largest employment sector in the Hugo submarket,
providing 674 jobs in 2015 (24.6% of the total).
• Between 2014 and 2015, the number of employees increased by 133 employees (5.1%)
while the county experienced a 3.2% increase in jobs. By comparison, the Metro Area in‐
creased by 1.9% in jobs during the same time period.
• Within the Hugo submarket, minimal job loss occurred within sectors, while the most hiring
occurred in the Manufacturing and Accommodation & Food Services sectors (39 jobs for a
6.1% increase and 38 jobs for a 25.3%, respectively).
From 2014 to 2015, the average weekly wage in the Hugo submarket increased 4.4% ($36)
to $850. By comparison, wages increased 4.4% in Washington County and 3.6% in the Met‐
ro Area.
At $850, the average weekly wage for all industries in the Hugo submarket was slightly
higher than the county ($846). Average wages were higher in the Hugo submarket than in
the county in the Educational Services, Public Administration, Construction, Wholesale
Trade, and Retail Trade industry sectors.
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 66
$‐ $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500
Total, All Industries
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting
Mining
Utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transportation & Warehousing
Information
Finance & Insurance
Real Estate, Rental & Leasing
Professional, Scientific & Tech Services
Management of Companies &…
Admin Support & Waste Management…
Educational Services
Health Care & Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation
Accommodation & Food Services
Other Services (except Public…
Public Administration
2015 Average Weekly Wage
Hugo Submarket
Metro Area
Washington Co
Hugo
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 67
Mahtomedi
There were 3,207 jobs in the Mahtomedi submarket as 2015 which represented roughly
4.1% of all covered employment in Washington County.
Industry Establish‐
ments
Employ‐
ment
Weekly
Wage
Establish‐
ments
Employ‐
ment
Weekly
Wage
Total, All Industries 266 3,131 $647 266 3,207 $688 76 2.4% $41 6.3%
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 5 31 $391 5 27 $427 ‐4 ‐12.9% $36 9.2%
Mining ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Utilities ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Construction 32 170 $938 29 171 $1,009 1 0.6% $71 7.6%
Manufacturing 11 227 $930 11 239 $959 12 5.3% $29 3.1%
Wholesale Trade 6 16 $739 4 27 $974 11 68.8% $235 31.8%
Retail Trade 12 113 $634 14 144 $642 31 27.4% $8 1.3%
Transportation & Warehousing 6 632 $498 6 642 $504 10 1.6% $6 1.2%
Information ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐
Finance & Insurance ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Real Estate, Rental & Leasing 8 25 $790 8 24 $853 ‐1 ‐4.0% $63 8.0%
Professional, Scientific & Tech Services 32 81 $1,031 26 84 $1,037 3 3.7% $6 0.6%
Management of Companies & Enterprises ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Admin Support & Waste Management & Remediation 11 59 $543 10 61 $598 2 3.4% $55 10.1%
Educational Services ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Health Care & Social Assistance ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Accommodation & Food Services 6 110 $272 6 140 $285 30 27.3% $13 4.8%
Other Services (except Public Administration) 34 111 $564 38 132 $545 21 18.9% ‐$19 ‐3.4%
Public Administration 5 52 $508 5 51 $565 ‐1 ‐1.9% $57 11.2%
Unclassified Establishments ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Sources: Minnesota Workforce Center; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
TABLE EMP‐9
QUARTERLY CENSUS OF EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES
MAHTOMEDI
2014 2015 Change 2014 ‐ 2015
Employment
# %
Wage
# %
MAHTOMEDI
The Transportation & Warehousing industry was, by far, the largest employment sector in
the Mahtomedi submarket, providing 642 jobs in 2015 (20% of the total).
Between 2014 and 2015, the number of employees increased by 76 employees (2.4%) while
the county experienced a 3.2% increase in jobs. By comparison, the Metro Area increased
by 1.9% in jobs during the same time period.
Within the Mahtomedi submarket, there were no notable job losses, while the most signifi‐
cant hiring occurred in the Retail Trade sector (31 jobs for a 27.4% increase) and Accommo‐
dation & Food Services (30 jobs for a 27.3% increase).
From 2014 to 2015, the average weekly wage in the Mahtomedi submarket increased 6.3%
($41) to $688. By comparison, wages increased 4.4% in Washington County and 3.6% in the
Metro Area.
At $688, the average weekly wage for all industries in the Mahtomedi submarket was higher
than the county ($846). Average wages were lower in the Mahtomedi submarket than in
the county except for the Retail Trade, Real Estate/Rental & Leasing, and Other Services in‐
dustry sectors.
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 68
$‐ $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500
Total, All Industries
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting
Mining
Utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transportation & Warehousing
Information
Finance & Insurance
Real Estate, Rental & Leasing
Professional, Scientific & Tech Services
Management of Companies & Enterprises
Admin Support & Waste Management &…
Educational Services
Health Care & Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation
Accommodation & Food Services
Other Services (except Public Administration)
Public Administration
2015 Average Weekly Wage
Mahtomedi Submarket
Metro Area
Washington Co
Mahtomedi
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 69
Oakdale
There were 10,416 jobs in the Oakdale submarket as 2015 which represented 13.2% of all
jobs in Washington County.
Industry Establish‐
ments
Employ‐
ment
Weekly
Wage
Establish‐
ments
Employ‐
ment
Weekly
Wage
Total, All Industries 602 9,893 $936 592 10,416 $962 523 5.3% $26 2.8%
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Mining ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Utilities ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Construction ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Manufacturing 37 920 $1,398 36 986 $1,408 66 7.2% $10 0.7%
Wholesale Trade 47 490 $1,300 43 535 $1,335 45 9.2% $35 2.7%
Retail Trade 63 1,331 $492 62 1,503 $496 172 12.9% $4 0.8%
Transportation & Warehousing 15 202 $982 13 223 $1,054 21 10.4% $72 7.3%
Information 7 196 $371 8 228 $400 32 16.3% $29 7.8%
Finance & Insurance 57 791 $1,392 58 796 $1,384 5 0.6% ‐$8 ‐0.6%
Real Estate, Rental & Leasing 35 115 $1,081 33 113 $1,011 ‐2 ‐1.7% ‐$70 ‐6.5%
Professional, Scientific & Tech Services 59 706 $1,223 91 770 $1,267 64 9.1% $44 3.6%
Management of Companies & Enterprises 7 263 $2,918 7 235 $3,549 ‐28 ‐10.6% $631 21.6%
Admin Support & Waste Management & Remediation 36 671 $849 33 628 $879 ‐43 ‐6.4% $30 3.5%
Educational Services 12 621 $868 14 589 $888 ‐32 ‐5.2% $20 2.3%
Health Care & Social Assistance 47 1,011 $691 49 1,138 $721 127 12.6% $30 4.3%
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 11 294 $218 10 306 $224 12 4.1% $6 2.8%
Accommodation & Food Services 43 1,230 $368 43 1,286 $387 56 4.6% $19 5.2%
Other Services (except Public Administration) 48 197 $989 48 212 $1,156 15 7.6% $167 16.9%
Public Administration 3 204 $1,239 3 206 $1,243 2 1.0% $4 0.3%
Unclassified Establishments ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Sources: Minnesota Workforce Center; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
TABLE EMP‐10
QUARTERLY CENSUS OF EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES
OAKDALE
2014 2015 Change 2014 ‐ 2015
Employment
# %
Wage
# %
OAKDALE
The Retail Trade industry was the largest employment sector in the Oakdale submarket,
providing 1,503 jobs in 2015 (14.4% of the total).
Between 2014 and 2015, the number of employees increased by 532 employees (5.3%)
while the county experienced a 3.2% increase in jobs. By comparison, the Metro Area in‐
creased by 1.9% in jobs during the same time period.
Within the Oakdale submarket, the most notable job losses occurred in the Admin Support
& waste Remediation sector (‐43 jobs for a ‐6.4% decline), while the most significant hiring
occurred in the Retail Trade sector (172 jobs for a 12.9% increase).
From 2014 to 2015, the average weekly wage in the Mahtomedi submarket increased 2.8%
($26) to $962. By comparison, wages increased 4.4% in Washington County and 3.6% in the
Metro Area.
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 70
At $962, the average weekly wage for all industries in the Oakdale submarket was higher
than the county ($846). Average wages were higher in the county for only five sectors
which include the Information, Health Care & Social Services, Arts/Entertainment & Recrea‐
tion, Finance & Insurance, and Wholesale Trade industry sectors.
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 71
Total, All Industries
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and…
Mining
Utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transportation & Warehousing
Information
Finance & Insurance
Real Estate, Rental & Leasing
Professional, Scientific & Tech Services
Management of Companies &…
Admin Support & Waste Management…
Educational Services
Health Care & Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation
Accommodation & Food Services
Other Services (except Public…
Public Administration
2015 Average Weekly Wage
Oakdale Submarket
Metro Area
Washington Co
Oakdale
Lake Elmo
There were about 2,474 jobs in the Lake Elmo submarket as 2015 which represented
roughly 3.1% of all jobs in Washington County.
Industry Establish‐
ments
Employ‐
ment
Weekly
Wage
Establish‐
ments
Employ‐
ment
Weekly
Wage
Total, All Industries 247 2,364 $985 251 2,474 $1,043 110 4.7% $58 5.9%
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Mining ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Utilities ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Construction ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ 19 69 $1,524 ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Manufacturing 10 100 $900 11 99 $985 ‐1 ‐1.0% $85 9.4%
Wholesale Trade 9 25 $772 9 21 $900 ‐4 ‐16.0% $128 16.6%
Retail Trade 17 171 $614 18 202 $593 31 18.1% ‐$21 ‐3.4%
Transportation & Warehousing 7 40 $649 7 39 $778 ‐1 ‐2.5% $129 19.9%
Information ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ 3 15 $637 ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Finance & Insurance 33 189 $1,186 33 244 $1,628 55 29.1% $442 37.3%
Real Estate, Rental & Leasing 12 17 $1,042 11 16 $1,271 ‐1 ‐5.9% $229 22.0%
Professional, Scientific & Tech Services ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ 47 289 $1,195 ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐‐‐
Management of Companies & Enterprises ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ 3 2 $1,516 ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Admin Support & Waste Management & Remediation 17 476 $1,541 19 536 $1,523 60 12.6% ‐$18 ‐1.2%
Educational Services ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Health Care & Social Assistance ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 11 79 $429 10 68 $519 ‐11 ‐13.9% $90 21.0%
Accommodation & Food Services 8 293 $331 8 303 $338 10 3.4% $7 2.1%
Other Services (except Public Administration) ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐‐‐
Public Administration 1 45 $533 1 46 $489 1 2.2% ‐$44 ‐8.3%
Unclassified Establishments ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
TABLE EMP‐11
QUARTERLY CENSUS OF EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES
LAKE ELMO
2014 2015 Change 2014 ‐ 2015
Employment
# %
Wage
# %
LAKE ELMO
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 72
The Admin Support & Waste Remediation Services industry was the largest employment
sector in the Lake Elmo submarket, providing 536 jobs in 2015 (21.7% of the total).
Between 2014 and 2015, the number of employees increased by 110 employees (4.7%)
while the county experienced a 3.2% increase in jobs. By comparison, the Metro Area in‐
creased by 1.9% in jobs during the same time period.
Within the Lake Elmo submarket, notable job losses occurred in the Arts/Entertainment &
Recreation sector (‐11 jobs for a ‐13.9% decline), while the most significant hiring occurred
in the Admin Support & Waste Management & Remediation Services sector (60 jobs for a
12.6% increase).
From 2014 to 2015, the average weekly wage in the Lake Elmo submarket increased 5.9%
($58) to $1,043. By comparison, wages increased 4.4% in Washington County and 3.6% in
the Metro Area.
At $1,043, the average weekly wage for all industries in the Lake Elmo submarket was
higher than the county ($846). Average wages were higher in the Lake Elmo submarket
than in the county in most notably the Management of Companies & Enterprises, Public
Administration, Wholesale Trade, and Manufacturing industry sectors.
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 73
$‐ $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500
Total, All Industries
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and…
Mining
Utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transportation & Warehousing
Information
Finance & Insurance
Real Estate, Rental & Leasing
Professional, Scientific & Tech Services
Management of Companies &…
Admin Support & Waste Management…
Educational Services
Health Care & Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation
Accommodation & Food Services
Other Services (except Public…
Public Administration
2015 Average Weekly Wage
Lake Elmo Submarket
Metro Area
Washington Co
Lake Elmo
Woodbury
There were 21,569 jobs in the Woodbury submarket as of 2015 which represented 27.3% of
all covered employment in Washington County.
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 74
Industry Establish‐
ments
Employ‐
ment
Weekly
Wage
Establish‐
ments
Employ‐
ment
Weekly
Wage
Total, All Industries 1,353 21,081 $780 1,353 21,569 $802 488 2.3% $22 2.8%
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Mining ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Utilities ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Construction ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Manufacturing 26 706 $1,266 29 779 $1,211 73 10.3%($55)‐4.3%
Wholesale Trade 46 322 $1,523 46 341 $1,522 19 5.9%($1)‐0.1%
Retail Trade 221 4,864 $436 216 5,071 $462 207 4.3% $26 6.0%
Transportation & Warehousing ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ 16 166 $1,221 ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Information 27 356 $874 24 355 $878 ‐1 ‐0.3% $4 0.5%
Finance & Insurance 93 1,714 $1,387 96 1,460 $1,511 ‐254 ‐14.8% $124 8.9%
Real Estate, Rental & Leasing 67 178 $662 59 168 $765 ‐10 ‐5.6% $103 15.6%
Professional, Scientific & Tech Services 192 965 $1,400 196 1,056 $1,412 91 9.4% $12 0.9%
Management of Companies & Enterprises 16 428 $1,067 16 331 $1,168 ‐97 ‐22.7% $101 9.5%
Admin Support & Waste Management & Remediation Services 58 719 $550 57 714 $579 ‐5 ‐0.7% $29 5.3%
Educational Services 39 1,767 $874 41 1,745 $879 ‐22 ‐1.2% $5 0.6%
Health Care & Social Assistance 187 4,281 $989 191 4,514 $1,035 233 5.4% $46 4.7%
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 24 394 $305 24 415 $305 21 5.3% $0 0.0%
Accommodation & Food Services 98 2,636 $312 105 2,779 $320 143 5.4% $8 2.6%
Other Services (except Public Administration) 156 902 $426 156 960 $445 58 6.4% $19 4.5%
Public Administration 5 438 $928 6 459 $970 21 4.8% $42 4.5%
Unclassified Establishments ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Sources: Minnesota Workforce Center; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
TABLE EMP‐12
QUARTERLY CENSUS OF EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES
WOODBURY
2014 2015 Change 2014 ‐ 2015
Employment
# %
Wage
# %
WOODBURY
The Retail Trade industry was the largest employment sector in the Woodbury submarket,
providing 5,071 jobs in 2015 (23.5% of the total).
Between 2014 and 2015, the number of employees increased by 488 employees (2.3%)
while the county experienced a 3.2% increase in jobs. By comparison, the Metro Area in‐
creased by 1.9% in jobs during the same time period.
Within the Woodbury submarket, the most notable job losses occurred in the Financial &
Insurance sector (‐254 jobs for a ‐14.8% decline), while the most significant hiring occurred
in the Health Care & Social Assistance sector (233 jobs for a 5.4% increase) and the Retail
Trade sector (207 jobs for a 4.3% increase).
From 2014 to 2015, the average weekly wage in the Woodbury submarket increased 2.8%
($22) to $802. By comparison, wages increased 4.4% in Washington County and 3.6% in the
Metro Area.
At $802, the average weekly wage for all industries in the Woodbury submarket was lower
than the county ($846). Average wages were higher in the Woodbury submarket than in
the county in most notably the Transportation & Warehousing, Professional, Scientific &
Tech Services, Information, Wholesale Trade, and Health Care industry sectors.
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 75
Cottage Grove
There were 10,116 jobs in the Cottage Grove submarket as of 2015 which represented
roughly 12.8% of all covered employment in Washington County.
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 76
Industry Establish‐
ments
Employ‐
ment
Weekly
Wage
Establish‐
ments
Employ‐
ment
Weekly
Wage
Total, All Industries 611 10,042 $788 600 10,116 $840 74 0.7%$52 6.6%
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Mining ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Utilities ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Construction 34 301 $1,399 18 183 $1,066 ‐118 ‐39.2% ‐$333 ‐23.8%
Manufacturing 24 1,658 $1,195 18 1,621 $1,345 ‐37 ‐2.2% $150 12.6%
Wholesale Trade 14 241 $1,319 13 254 $1,350 13 5.4% $31 2.4%
Retail Trade 72 1,368 $465 71 1,380 $471 12 0.9% $6 1.3%
Transportation & Warehousing 35 668 $894 13 270 $1,085 ‐398 ‐59.6% $191 21.4%
Information ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐
Finance & Insurance 24 92 $1,289 23 84 $1,403 ‐8 ‐8.7% $114 8.8%
Real Estate, Rental & Leasing 27 98 $455 19 103 $415 5 5.1% ‐$40 ‐8.8%
Professional, Scientific & Tech Services 37 117 $845 46 145 $924 28 23.9% $79 9.3%
Management of Companies & Enterprises 4 79 $546 13 270 $1,085 191 241.8% $539 98.7%
Admin Support & Waste Management & Remediation 42 379 $845 39 413 $887 34 9.0% $42 5.0%
Educational Services 24 1,716 $775 19 1,545 $753 ‐171 ‐10.0% ‐$22 ‐2.8%
Health Care & Social Assistance 57 674 $779 54 683 $841 9 1.3% $62 8.0%
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 4 52 $259 4 46 $227 ‐6 ‐11.5% ‐$32 ‐12.4%
Accommodation & Food Services 36 763 $250 79 781 $267 18 2.4% $17 6.8%
Other Services (except Public Administration) 85 443 $372 80 421 $374 ‐22 ‐5.0% $2 0.5%
Public Administration 6 368 $758 5 375 $759 7 1.9% $1 0.1%
Unclassified Establishments ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Sources: Minnesota Workforce Center; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
TABLE EMP‐13
QUARTERLY CENSUS OF EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES
COTTAGE GROVE
2014 2015 Change 2014 ‐ 2015
Employment
# %
Wage
# %
COTTAGE GROVE
The Education Services industry was the largest employment sector in the Cottage Grove
submarket, providing 1,621 jobs in 2015 (16% of the total).
Between 2014 and 2015, the number of business establishments in the Cottage Grove
submarket declined by 11 and the number of employees decreased by 74 employees (0.7%)
while the county experienced a 3.2% increase in jobs. By comparison, the Metro Area in‐
creased by 1.9% in jobs during the same time period.
Within the Cottage Grove submarket, the most notable job losses occurred in the Transpor‐
tation & Warehousing sector (‐398 jobs for an ‐59.6% decline), while the most significant
hiring occurred in the Management of Companies & Enterprises sector (191 jobs for a
241.8% increase).
From 2014 to 2015, the average weekly wage in the Cottage Grove submarket increased
6.6% ($52) to $840. By comparison, wages increased 4.4% in Washington County and 3.6%
in the Metro Area.
At $840, the average weekly wage for all industries in the Cottage Grove submarket was
similar to the county ($846). Average wages were higher in the Woodbury submarket than
in the county in the Transportation & Warehousing and Manufacturing, industry sectors.
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 77
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 78
$‐ $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500
Total, All Industries
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting
Mining
Utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transportation & Warehousing
Information
Finance & Insurance
Real Estate, Rental & Leasing
Professional, Scientific & Tech Services
Management of Companies & Enterprises
Admin Support & Waste Management &…
Educational Services
Health Care & Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation
Accommodation & Food Services
Other Services (except Public…
Public Administration
2015 Average Weekly Wage
Cotage Grove Submarket
Metro Area
Washington Co
Cottage Grove
Commuting Patterns
Proximity to employment is often a primary consideration when choosing where to live, since
transportation costs often accounts for a large proportion of households’ budgets. Table EMP‐
14 and 15 highlights the commuting patterns of workers in Washington County in 2014 (the
most recent data available), based on Employer‐Household Dynamics data from the U.S. Census
Bureau.
Roughly 42% of the workers employed in Washington County lived in Washington County.
The remaining 58% commuted from other areas, most notably Ramsey County (16.7%), Da‐
kota County (7.9%), and St. Croix County (7.8%).
Approximately 53.1% of Washington County’s workers traveled less than 10 miles to their
place of residence, while over 32.4% had a commute distance of between 10 and 24 miles
and nearly 14.5% commuted a distance of more than 25 miles.
An estimated 22.3% of Washington County residents also worked in Washington County.
Other major work destinations included Ramsey County (32.8%), Hennepin County (24.6%),
and Dakota County (8.2%).
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 79
Approximately 38.5% of the workers that reside in the county commuted less than 10 miles
to their place of work, while 4.4% commuted a distance of more than 50 miles.
The top employment destinations for Washington County residents as of 2014 included the
central cities of St. Paul and Minneapolis along with Maplewood and Woodbury.
Place of Residence Count Share Place of Employment Count Share
Woodbury 6,326 9.6% St. Paul 18,587 15.2%
St. Paul 4,974 7.6% Minneapolis 13,458 11.0%
Cottage Grove 4,233 6.5% Maplewood 8,852 7.3%
Stillwater 3,125 4.8% Woodbury 7,441 6.1%
Oakdale 2,744 4.2% Stillwater 4,161 3.4%
Forest Lake 1,996 3.0% Bloomington 3,736 3.1%
Maplewood 1,797 2.7% Eagan 3,090 2.5%
Minneapolis 1,398 2.1% Cottage Grove 3,035 2.5%
White Bear Lake 1,132 1.7% Oakdale 2,870 2.4%
Hugo 1,025 1.6% Roseville 2,798 2.3%
Lake Elmo 850 1.3% White Bear Lake 2,249 1.8%
Inver Grove Heights 803 1.2% Forest Lake 1,939 1.6%
Hudson 783 1.2% Oak Park Heights 1,896 1.6%
Eagan 767 1.2% Edina 1,596 1.3%
Hastings 749 1.1% Vadnais Heights 1,406 1.2%
St. Paul Park 677 1.0% Golden Valley 1,388 1.1%
Oak Park Heights 676 1.0% Arden Hills 1,310 1.1%
Mahtomedi 646 1.0% Fridley 1,296 1.1%
Wyoming 625 1.0% Blaine 1,225 1.0%
North St. Paul 617 0.9% Eden Prairie 1,215 1.0%
Blaine 610 0.9% Plymouth 1,148 0.9%
South St. Paul 610 0.9% Minnetonka 1,135 0.9%
New Richmond 519 0.8% Bayport 1,097 0.9%
Lino Lakes 476 0.7% Inver Grove Heights 1,067 0.9%
Scandia 460 0.7% Hudson 991 0.8%
All Other Locations 26,983 41.1% All Other Locations 32,989 27.0%
Distance Traveled Distance Traveled
Total Primary Jobs 65,601 100.0% Total Primary Jobs 121,975 100.0%
Less than 10 miles 34,861 53.1% Less than 10 miles 46,945 38.5%
10 to 24 miles 21,238 32.4% 10 to 24 miles 58,825 48.2%
25 to 50 miles 6,186 9.4% 25 to 50 miles 10,890 8.9%
Greater than 50 miles 3,316 5.1% Greater than 50 miles 5,315 4.4%
Sources: US Census Bureau Local Employment Dynamics; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
TABLE EMP‐14
COMMUTING PATTERNS BY CITY
WASHINGTON COUNTY
2014
Where Washington County Workers Live Where Washington County Residents Work
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 80
The top residential destinations for Washington County workers included Woodbury, St.
Paul, Cottage Grove, Stillwater and Oakdale.
Place of Residence Count Share Place of Employment Count Share
Washington 27,198 41.5% Ramsey 40,063 32.8%
Ramsey 10,960 16.7% Hennepin 29,983 24.6%
Dakota 5,160 7.9% Washington 27,198 22.3%
St. Croix 5,129 7.8% Dakota 9,948 8.2%
Hennepin 3,916 6.0% Anoka 4,536 3.7%
Anoka 3,664 5.6% St. Croix 1,807 1.5%
Chisago 2,619 4.0% Chisago 908 0.7%
Polk 1,097 1.7% St. Louis 720 0.6%
Pierce 571 0.9% Scott 483 0.4%
Isanti 381 0.6% Goodhue 479 0.4%
All Other Locations 4,906 7.5% All Other Locations 5,850 4.8%
Distance Traveled Distance Traveled
Total Primary Jobs 65,601 100.0% Total Primary Jobs 121,975 100.0%
Less than 10 miles 34,861 53.1% Less than 10 miles 46,945 38.5%
10 to 24 miles 21,238 32.4% 10 to 24 miles 58,825 48.2%
25 to 50 miles 6,186 9.4% 25 to 50 miles 10,980 9.0%
Greater than 50 miles 3,316 5.1% Greater than 50 miles 5,315 4.4%
Sources: US Census Bureau Local Employment Dynamics; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
TABLE EMP‐15
COMMUTING PATTERNS BY COUNTY
WASHINGTON COUNTY
2014
Where Washington County Workers Live Where Washington County Residents Work
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 81
Inflow/Outflow
Table EMP‐16 provides a summary of the inflow and outflow of workers in the county. Outflow
reflects the number of workers living in the county but employed outside of the county while
inflow measures the number of workers that are employed in the county but live outside.
Interior flow reflects the number of workers that both live and work in the Region.
Washington County can be considered an exporter of workers, as the number of residents
leaving the county for work (outflow) exceeded the number of workers coming into the
county (inflow) for employment. Approximately 38,403 workers came into the county for
work while 94,777 workers left, for a net difference of ‐56,374.
Num. Pct. Num. Pct. Num. Pct. Num. Pct.
Employed in the Selection Area 641 100% 15,372 100% 1,688 100% 5,890 100%
Employed in the Selection Area but Living Outside 486 75.8% 11,743 76.4% 1,484 87.9% 4,511 76.6%
Employed and Living in the Selection Area 155 24.2% 3,629 23.6% 204 12.1% 1,379 23.4%
Living in the Selection Area 3,505 100% 14,626 100% 5,812 100% 8,917 100%
Living in the Selection Area but Employed Outside 3,350 95.6% 10,997 75.2% 5,608 96.5% 7,538 84.5%
Living and Employed in the Selection Area 155 4.4% 3,626 24.8% 204 3.5% 1,379 15.5%
Num. Pct. Num. Pct. Num. Pct. Num. Pct.
Employed in the Selection Area 2,309 100% 2,493 100% 8,907 100% 1,839 100%
Employed in the Selection Area but Living Outside 1,986 86.0% 2,011 80.7% 7,931 89.0% 1,709 92.9%
Employed and Living in the Selection Area 323 14.0% 482 19.3% 976 11.0% 130 7.1%
Living in the Selection Area 7,382 100% 7,375 100% 15,299 100% 3,732 100%
Living in the Selection Area but Employed Outside 7,059 95.6% 6,893 93.5% 14,323 93.6% 3,602 96.5%
Living and Employed in the Selection Area 323 4.4% 482 6.5% 976 6.4% 130 3.5%
Num. Pct. Num. Pct. Num. Pct.
Employed in the Selection Area 17,985 100% 8,477 100% 65,601 100%
Employed in the Selection Area but Living Outside 14,175 78.8% 5,555 65.5% 38,403 58.5%
Employed and Living in the Selection Area 3,810 21.2% 2,922 34.5% 27,198 41.5%
Living in the Selection Area 33,024 100% 22,303 100% 121,975 100%
Living in the Selection Area but Employed Outside 29,214 88.5% 19,381 86.9% 94,777 77.7%
Living and Employed in the Selection Area 3,810 11.5% 2,922 13.1% 27,198 22.3%
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
HUGO MAHTOMEDI OAKDALE LAKE ELMO
WOODBURY COTTAGE GROVE TOTAL
TABLE EMP‐16
COMMUTING INFLOW/OUTFLOW
WASHINGTON COUNTY
2014
NORTHEAST STILLWATER SOUTHEAST FOREST LAKE
As shown on the table, Lake Elmo and the Southeast submarkets had the highest proportion of
workers living in, but employed outside of the submarket, each with 96.5% of workers. Lake
Elmo and the Southeast submarkets also had the highest proportions of workers that were
employed in, but live outside of the submarket. The lowest exporters of workers, those living
in, but employed outside of the submarket were the Stillwater (75.2%) and Forest Lake (84.5%)
submarkets.
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 82
Worker Profile Comparison
Table EMP‐17 compares characteristics of employed residents living in each submarket in 2014.
Information on monthly earnings, age, race and ethnicity, educational attainment and job
classification is provided. Conversely, Table EMP‐18 compares characteristics of employees
working in each submarket.
Resident Profile
Washington County residents have a large proportion of high‐income earners. As of 2014,
approximately 57% of all employed residents earn more than $3,333 per month.
Higher earnings also correlated to higher educational attainment. Approximately 29% of all
employed county residents had a Bachelor’s Degree or Advanced Degree.
The greatest proportion of residents worked in the Health Care and Social Assistance
industry (14% in 2014).
Worker Profile
The greatest concentrations of employment are in the Woodbury and Stillwater submarkets
with 19,868 and 16,753 employees, respectively.
The Woodbury and Stillwater submarkets also have high concentrations of high earners.
Approximately 47% of Stillwater submarket employees earned more than $3,333 per month
and 37% of Woodbury submarket employees. Hugo had the highest percentage of employ‐
ees earing $3,333 per month or more at 49%.
Health Care and Social Assistance jobs comprised the largest percentage of jobs in Washing‐
ton County (15% in 2014). Approximately 78% of all Health Care and Social Assistance jobs
were located in the Woodbury or Stillwater submarkets.
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 83Resident ProfileNum Pct. Num Pct. Num Pct. Num Pct. Num Pct. Num Pct. Num Pct. Num Pct. Num Pct.Num Pct. Num Pct.Total Living in Selection AreaTotal Living in Selection Area 3,782 100% 15,840 100% 6,335 100% 9,612100% 7,950 100% 7,965 100% 16,690 100% 4,038 100% 35,486 100% 24,128 100% 121,975 100%Monthly Earnings$1,250 or less 922 24% 3,923 25% 1,498 24% 2,318 24% 1,643 21% 1,886 24% 4,294 26% 889 22% 7,292 21% 5,509 23% 21,778 18%$1,251 to $3,333 840 22% 3,985 25% 1,352 21% 2,660 28% 1,855 23% 1,707 21% 4,673 28% 896 22% 7,136 20% 6,523 27% 30,350 25%More than $3,333 2,020 53% 7,932 50% 3,485 55% 4,634 48% 4,452 56% 4,372 55% 7,723 46% 2,253 56% 21,058 59% 12,096 50% 69,847 57%Worker AgesAge 29 or Younger 719 19% 3,455 22% 1,251 20% 2,051 21% 1,702 21% 1,734 22%41,778 250% 801 20% 7,215 20% 5,528 23% 25,798 21%Age 30 to 54 1,897 50% 8,715 55% 3,335 53% 5,602 58% 4,895 62% 3,992 50% 9,010 54% 2,311 57% 21,368 60% 14,305 59% 70,083 57%Age 55 or Older 1,166 31% 3,670 23% 1,749 28% 1,959 20% 1,353 17% 2,239 28%3,502 21% 926 23% 6,903 19% 4,295 18% 26,094 21%Worker Race and EthnicityRaceWhite Alone 3,619 96% 14,955 94% 6,014 95% 9,086 95% 7,480 94% 7,563 95% 14,156 85% 3,756 93% 30,179 85% 21,698 90% 109,963 90%Black or African American Alone 56 1% 296 2% 94 1% 197 2% 132 2% 148 2% 1,077 6% 74 2% 2,113 6% 972 4% 4,530 4%American Indian or Alaska Native Alone 120%780%230%611%270%230%74 0% 28 1% 1,239 3% 119 0% 512 0%Asian Alone 363 10% 343 2% 150 2% 173 2% 227 3% 170 2% 1,131 7% 140 3% 2,590 7% 1,043 4% 5,549 5%Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander Alone 1 0% 8 0% 2 0% 3 0% 5 0% 30%110% 2 0%230%160%640%Two or More Race Groups 31 1% 160 1% 52 1% 92 1% 79 1% 58 1% 241 1% 38 1% 452 1% 280 1% 1,357 1%EthnicityNot Hispanic or Latino 3,724 98% 15,484 98% 6,201 98% 9,421 98% 7,757 98%7,804 98% 16,009 96% 3,913 97% 34,302 97% 23,161 96% 118,442 97%Hispanic or Latino 58 2% 356 2% 134 2% 191 2% 193 2% 161 2% 681 4% 125 3% 1,184 3% 967 4% 3,533 3%Worker Educational AttainmentLess Than High School 192 5% 787 5% 272 4% 498 5% 362 5% 329 4% 892 5% 191 5% 1,761 5% 1,364 6% 5,971 5%High School or Equivalent, No College 723 19% 3,046 19% 1,200 19% 2,022 21% 1,536 19% 1,428 18% 3,064 18% 779 19% 6,211 18% 4,638 19% 22,703 19%Some College or Associate Degree 10,511 278% 4,112 26% 1,678 26% 2,67828% 2,141 27% 2,118 27% 4,175 25% 1,045 26% 9,029 25% 6,264 26% 31,865 26%Bachelor's Degree or Advanced Degree 1,097 29% 4,440 28% 1,934 31% 2,363 25% 2,209 28% 2,356 30% 4,381 26% 1,222 30% 11,270 32% 6,334 26% 35,638 29%Educational Attainment Not Available 719 19% 3,455 22% 1,251 20% 2,05121% 1,702 21% 1,734 22% 4,178 25% 801 20% 7,215 20% 5,528 23% 25,798 21%Jobs by NAICS Industry SectorAgriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 221%620%230%170%220%431%290%100%610%880%300%Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 3 0% 11 0% 9 0% 5 0% 3 0% 1 0% 9 0% 1 0%130%180%720%Utilities 4 0% 33 0% 11 0% 19 0% 14 0% 18 0% 35 0% 6 0% 83 0% 46 0% 265 0%Construction 256 7% 689 4% 284 4% 585 6% 408 5% 343 4% 620 4% 144 4% 951 3% 1,066 4% 5,188 4%Manufacturing 408 11% 1,421 9% 552 9% 1,134 12% 868 11% 794 10% 1,419 9% 377 9%2,442 7% 2,185 9% 11,412 9%Wholesale Trade 170 4% 685 4% 281 4% 486 5% 421 5% 360 5% 761 5% 207 5% 1,580 4% 1,106 5% 5,911 5%Retail Trade 367 10% 1,611 10% 608 10% 1,118 12% 768 10% 693 9% 1,843 11% 417 10% 3,137 9% 2,639 11% 11,985 10%Transportation and Warehousing 103 3% 448 3% 182 3% 293 3% 237 3% 19 0% 433 3% 119 3% 881 2% 841 3% 3,529 3%Information 60 2% 262 2% 83 1% 126 1% 133 2% 158 2% 241 1% 64 2% 720 2% 391 2% 2,1612%Finance and Insurance 173 5% 764 5% 308 5% 380 4% 375 5% 420 5% 845 5% 238 6% 2,344 7% 1,299 5% 7,038 6%Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 68 2% 248 2% 81 1% 167 2% 145 2% 131 2% 260 2% 60 1% 592 2% 392 2% 2,000 2%Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 205 5% 931 6% 376 6%507 5% 524 7% 500 6% 884 5% 249 6% 2,540 7% 1,299 5% 7,721 6%Management of Companies and Enterprises 217 6% 1,104 7% 571 9% 436 5% 464 6% 625 8% 1,079 6% 448 11% 4,170 12% 1,452 6% 10,383 9%Admin & Support, Waste Mgmt and Remediation 160 4% 554 3% 254 4% 424 4%320 4% 305 4% 939 6% 171 4% 1,561 4% 1,154 5% 5,210 4%Educational Services 347 9% 1,488 9% 612 10% 860 9% 724 9% 903 11% 1,407 8% 300 7% 3,382 10% 2,221 9% 11,203 9%Health Care and Social Assistance 508 13% 2,405 15% 877 14% 1,406 15% 1,113 14% 1,113 14% 2,738 16% 554 14% 5,077 14% 3,450 14% 17,161 14%Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 76 2% 308 2% 125 2% 166 2% 122 2% 152 2% 296 2% 64 2% 538 2% 351 1% 1,763 1%Accommodation and Food Services 249 7% 1,369 9% 455 7% 961 10% 568 7% 609 8% 1,344 8% 288 7% 2,423 7% 1,811 8% 8,081 7%Other Services (excluding Public Administration) 152 4% 560 4% 249 4%353 4% 313 4% 253 3% 563 3% 125 3% 1,094 3% 903 4% 3,922 3%Public Administration 234 6% 887 6% 391 6% 442 5% 408 5% 345 4% 945 6% 196 5% 1,897 5% 1,416 6% 6,730 6%Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; ESRI, Inc.; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLCTABLE EMP‐17EMPLOYED RESIDENT PROFILEWASHINGTON COUNTY2014SoutheastNortheast StillwaterWashington Co.Forest Lake Hugo Mahtomedi Oakdale Lake Elmo Woodbury Cottage Grove
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 84Worker ProfileNum Pct. Num Pct. Num Pct. Num Pct. Num Pct. Num Pct. Num Pct. Num Pct. Num Pct.Num Pct. Num Pct.Total Working in Selection AreaTotal Working in Selection Area 751 100% 16,753 100% 1,929 100% 6,469 100% 2,515 100% 2,751 100% 9,712 100% 2,058 100% 19,868 100% 9,318 100% 65,601100%Monthly Earnings$1,250 or less 295 39% 4,397 26% 621 32% 2,494 39% 575 23% 900 33% 2,571 26% 585 28% 6,284 32% 2,692 29% 15,698 24%$1,251 to $3,333 219 29% 4,510 27% 568 29% 2,232 35% 696 28% 845 31% 2,864 29% 586 28% 6,239 31% 2,942 32% 20,972 32%More than $3,333 238 32% 7,846 47% 740 38% 1,743 27% 1,244 49% 1,006 37% 4,277 44% 887 43% 7,345 37% 3,684 40% 28,931 44%Worker AgesAge 29 or Younger 169 23% 3,785 23% 545 28% 1,957 30% 628 25% 735 27% 2,647 27% 476 23% 6,126 31% 2,313 25% 17,425 27%Age 30 to 54 403 54% 9,412 56% 1,018 53% 3,184 49% 1,489 59% 1,449 53% 5,22954% 1,176 57% 10,422 52% 5,111 55% 35,299 54%Age 55 or Older 179 24% 3,556 21% 366 19% 1,328 21% 398 16% 567 21% 1,836 19%406 20% 3,300 17% 1,894 20% 12,877 20%Worker Race and EthnicityRaceWhite Alone 726 97% 15,893 95% 1,843 96% 6,200 96% 2,311 92% 2,590 94% 8,66589% 1,955 95% 17,626 89% 8,474 91% 60,491 92%Black or African American Alone 4 1% 289 2% 33 2% 76 1% 62 2% 48 2% 399 4% 51 2% 931 5% 277 3% 1,835 3%American Indian or Alaska Native Alone 5 1% 52 0% 13 1% 29 0% 6 0% 15 1% 41 0%111%740%511%2750%Asian Alone 8 1% 374 2% 18 1% 99 2% 105 4% 67 2% 470 5% 27 1% 937 5% 405 4% 2,236 3%Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander Alone 1 0% 7 0% 3 0% 5 0% 3 0% 10% 7 0% 2 0% 13 0% 10 0% 44 0%Two or More Race Groups 7 1% 138 1% 19 1% 60 1% 28 1% 30 1% 130 1% 12 1% 287 1% 1011%7201%EthnicityNot Hispanic or Latino 734 98% 16,439 98% 1,861 96% 6,234 96% 2,429 97% 2,688 98% 9,376 97% 1,999 97% 19,197 97% 8,799 94% 63,638 97%Hispanic or Latino 17 2% 314 2% 68 4% 145 2% 86 3% 63 2% 336 3% 59 3% 671 3% 519 6%1,963 3%Worker Educational AttainmentLess Than High School 43 6% 761 5% 138 7% 379 6% 158 6% 129 5% 504 5% 84 4% 890 4% 646 7% 3,331 5%High School or Equivalent, No College 168 22% 3,569 21% 434 22% 1,462 23% 549 22% 517 19% 1,796 18% 405 20% 3,349 17% 1,929 21% 12,906 20%Some College or Associate Degree 190 25% 4,515 27% 441 23% 1,603 25% 66326% 740 27% 2,374 24% 565 27% 4,697 24% 2,366 25% 16,490 25%Bachelor's Degree or Advanced Degree 181 24% 4,123 25% 371 19% 1,068 17% 517 21% 630 23% 2,391 25% 528 26% 4,806 24% 2,064 22% 15,449 24%Educational Attainment Not Available 169 23% 3,785 23% 545 28% 1,957 30% 628 25% 735 27% 2,647 27% 476 23% 6,126 31% 2,313 25% 17,425 27%Jobs by NAICS Industry SectorAgriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 13 2% 67 0% 14 1% 7 0% 25 1% 693% 4 0% 5 0% 0 0% 325 3% 488 1%Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 0 0% 4 0% 8 0% 2 0% 0 0% 2 0%0 0% 0 0% 13 0% 4 0% 33 0%Utilities 00%80%00%00%00%00%00%00%00%00%80%Construction 95 13% 622 4% 175 9% 305 5% 458 18% 230 8% 786 8% 95 5% 247 1% 437 5% 3,340 5%Manufacturing 40 5% 2,431 15% 106 5% 573 9% 727 29% 318 12% 1,019 10% 93 5% 419 2% 1,555 17% 7,142 11%Wholesale Trade 10 1% 549 3% 116 6% 126 2% 100 4% 138 5% 553 6% 52 3% 480 2% 404 4%2,460 4%Retail Trade 92 12% 2,007 12% 193 10% 1,453 22% 138 5% 132 5% 1,281 13% 141 7% 3,748 19% 1,015 11% 9,104 14%Transportation and Warehousing 4 1% 349 2% 118 6% 153 2% 12 0% 71 3% 105 1% 201% 130 1% 783 8% 1,645 3%Information 5 1% 64 0% 12 1% 26 0% 9 0% 3 0% 76 1% 10 0% 275 1% 8 0% 458 1%Finance and Insurance 8 1% 335 2% 13 1% 123 2% 40 2% 24 1% 615 6% 203 10% 2,038 10% 118 1% 3,440 5%Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 5 1% 108 1% 38 2% 184 3% 3 0% 43 2% 70 1% 13 1% 149 1% 88 1% 610 1%Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 32 4% 505 3% 94 5% 176 3% 49 2% 96 3% 739 8% 336 16% 1,038 5% 165 2% 3,073 5%Management of Companies and Enterprises 0 0% 523 3% 0 0% 19 0% 1 0% 8 0% 4465% 7 0% 338 2% 31 0% 1,323 2%Admin & Support, Waste Mgmt and Remediation 40 5% 162 1% 137 7% 205 3% 161 6% 78 3% 692 7% 46 2% 837 4% 344 4% 2,439 4%Educational Services 92 12% 1,258 8% 82 4% 1,189 18% 130 5% 563 20% 814 8% 24812% 1,932 10% 1,768 19% 7,406 11%Health Care and Social Assistance 84 11% 3,342 20% 156 8% 573 9% 297 12% 310 11% 1,011 10% 336 16% 4,224 21% 617 7% 9,754 15%Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 14 2% 274 2% 147 8% 48 1% 74 3% 182 7% 240 2% 36 2% 244 1% 70 1% 1,000 2%Accommodation and Food Services 82 11% 1,537 9% 213 11% 862 13% 151 6% 30811% 866 9% 306 15% 2,180 11% 768 8% 6,017 9%Other Services (excluding Public Administration) 26 3% 567 3% 241 12%335 5% 111 4% 131 5% 198 2% 68 3% 914 5% 444 5% 2,588 4%Public Administration 109 15% 2,041 12% 66 3% 110 2% 29 1% 45 2% 197 2% 43 2% 662 3% 374 4% 3,273 5%Note: Median Household Income not available for workers that live outside of the submarket and commute in.Average weekly wage reflects the wages for workers that work in the submarket.Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Maxfield Research and Consulting LLCTABLE EMP‐18WORKER PROFILEWASHINGTON COUNTY2014Northeast Stillwater Southeast Forest Lake Hugo Mahtomedi Oakdale Lake Elmo Woodbury Cottage Grove Washington Co.
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 85
Existing Business Mix by Industry Sectors
Table EMP‐18 presents business data as compiled from the Minnesota Department of Employ‐
ment and Economic Development (DEED) for 2015 and 1st Quarter 2016. The data is character‐
ized by industry based on the six‐digit North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).
The NAICS is the standard used by Federal statistical agencies in classifying business establish‐
ments for the purpose of collecting, analyzing, and publishing statistical data related to the U.S.
business economy.
There were approximately 5,170 businesses with 79,195 employees in Washington County
in 1st Quarter 2016. Retail Trade is the largest sector with 674 businesses and nearly 13,000
employees. Health Care and Social Services had the second most employed people with
11,549 employees. Professional, Scientific and Tech Services consisted of 640 businesses,
but has the seventh highest number of employees (3,287 employees).
Business/Industry Number Pct Number Pct Number Pct Number Pct
NAICS CODES
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 45 0.9% 712 0.9% 45 0.9% 5010.6%
Mining 7 0.1% 69 0.1% n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Utilities 7 0.1% 298 0.4% 7 0.1% 285 0.4%
Construction 507 9.8% 3,338 4.2% 507 9.8% 2,919 3.7%
Manufacturing 204 3.9% 7,990 10.1% 204 3.9% 8,099 10.4%
Wholesale Trade 199 3.8% 1,957 2.5% 199 3.8% 1,999 2.6%
Retail Trade 674 13.0% 13,051 16.5% 674 13.0% 12,957 16.6%
Transportation & Warehousing 135 2.6% 2,584 3.3% 135 2.6% 2,598 3.3%
Information 55 1.1% 699 0.9% 55 1.1% 652 0.8%
Finance & Insurance 328 6.3% 3,306 4.2% 328 6.3% 3,010 3.8%
Real Estate, Rental & Leasing 253 4.9% 790 1.0% 253 4.9% 762 1.0%
Professional, Scientific & Tech Services 640 12.4% 3,177 4.0% 640 12.4% 3,287 4.2%
Management of Companies & Enterprises 51 1.0% 1,503 1.9% 51 1.0% 1,650 2.1%
Admin Support & Waste Management & Remediation Services 264 5.1% 3,135 4.0% 264 5.1% 2,775 3.5%
Educational Services 136 2.6% 7,330 9.3% 136 2.6% 7,745 9.9%
Health Care & Social Assistance 543 10.5% 11,408 14.4% 543 10.5% 11,549 14.8%
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 122 2.4% 2,121 2.7% 122 2.4% 2,093 2.7%
Accommodation & Food Services 391 7.5% 8,949 11.3% 391 7.6% 8,642 11.1%
Other Services (except Public Administration) 564 10.9% 3,074 3.9% 564 10.9% 3,009 3.8%
Public Administration 55 1.1% 3,617 4.6% 55 1.1% 3,661 4.7%
Unclassified Establishments 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%
Total 5,180 100.0% 79,108 100.0% 5,173 100.0% 78,193 100.0%
Sources: Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Developpment, Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Businesses Employees
TABLE EMP‐19
BUSINESS SUMMARY ‐ BY NAICS CODE
WASHINGTON COUNTY
2015 & Q1 2016
2016 Q12015
Businesses Employees
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 86
Major Employers
A portion of the employment growth in Washington County will be generated by the largest
employers in the county. The table below lists some of the top employers in the county along
with a description of their primary industry and number of employees. Table EMP‐20 shows
the major employers in Washington County based on data provided by the Washington County
Comprehensive Annual Financial Report (2012).
Andersen Corporation is the largest employer in Washington County with 5,700 employees.
Andersen Corporation specializes in window and manufacturing. The company employs
over 10,000 people across North America and is headquartered in Bayport, Minnesota.
Independent School District 833 is the second biggest employer with 2,513 employees. This
school district covers various cities in South Washington County such as: Woodbury, Cot‐
tage Grove, Newport, and St. Paul Park. It also includes the following townships: Afton,
Denmark, and Grey Cloud Island.
Employee
Name City Industry/Product/Service Size
Andersen Corporation Bayport, Cottage Grove Manufacturing 5,700
Independent School District 833 Woodbury Education 2,513
Bailey Nurseries, Inc. Newport Nursery 1,800
Independent School District 622 Oakdale Education 1,550
Wal‐Mart Mulitple Locations Retail 1,169
Washington County Government Forest Lake Government 1,127
Independent School District 831 Forest Lake Education 1,085
Independent School District 834 Stillwater Education 1,050
Target Multiple Locations Retail 883
Woodwinds Health Campus (2014) Woodbury Healthcare 875
Lakeview Memorial Hospital (2013) Stillwater Healthcare 727
3M Chemolite (2013) Cottage Grove Manufacturing 700
MN State Prison (2013) Stillwater Prison 544
Total 19,723
Source: Washington County CAFR, Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
TABLE EMP‐20
MAJOR EMPLOYERS
WASHINGTON COUNTY
2015
Washington County
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 87
Bailey Nurseries, Inc is considered one of the United States largest wholesale nurseries and
is located Newport with 1,800 employees.
Independent School District 622 has 1,500 employees. This school district covers various
cities in western Washington County including the cities of: Oakdale, Lake Elmo, Landfall,
Pine Springs, and Woodbury along with a portion of Ramsey County including North St. Paul
and Maplewood.
Independent School District 831 employs 1,050. This school district covers various cities in
the Forest Lake area including the cities of: Columbia, East Bethel, Forest Lake, Ham Lake,
Hugo, Lino Lakes, Scandia, Stacy, Wyoming, and parts of Marine‐on‐St. Croix and the town‐
ships of May and Linwood.
Employment Summary
Table EMP‐21 provides an employment summary that compares Washington County to the
remaining counties in the Metro Area.
Washington County had the second lowest inflow/outflow ratio. There were over twice
(41.1%) as many people commuting outside of Washington County than workers coming
into Washington County. Scott County had the lowest inflow/outflow ratio at 40.4%.
Carver County had the highest median household income ($88,204), followed by Scott
County ($87,923) and Washington County was third at ($85,126).
Average weekly wage was highest in Hennepin County ($1,274) followed by Ramsey County
($1,150) and third by Carver County ($1,004). Washington County was the lowest of the
seven counties at $846.
Washington County had the second highest percentage of Retail Trade jobs in the Metro
Area at 14.1%. Anoka County had the highest percentage at 15.1%.
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 88 Employment SummaryNum Pct. Num Pct. Num Pct. Num Pct. Num Pct. Num Pct. Num Pct.Inflow/OutflowInflowOutflowInterior FlowMedian HH Income/Avg. Weekly WageMedian HH Income (2016)Average Weekly Wage (2015)Employee AgesAge 29 or Younger 32,361 26.1% 7,774 22.3% 42,789 24.8% 187,050 21.1% 71,846 21.7% 10,647 26.4% 21,414 29.7%Age 30 to 54 35,842 29.0% 9,995 28.7% 50,495 29.2% 234,622 26.4% 84,285 25.5% 12,286 30.4% 21,700 30.1%Age 55 or Older 55,576 44.9% 17,018 48.9% 79,484 46.0% 466,687 52.5% 174,496 52.8% 17,436 43.2% 29,010 40.2%Jobs by NAICS Industry SectorAgriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 337 0.3% 132 0.4% 750 0.4%731 0.1% 50 0.0% 116 0.3% 529 0.7%Mining 2 0.0% 0 0.0% 190 0.1% 313 0.0% 46 0.0% 86 0.2% 33 0.0%Utilities 485 0.4% 18 0.1% 417 0.2% 2,559 0.3% 307 0.1% 162 0.4% 8 0.0%Construction 7,095 5.7% 1,683 4.8% 9,814 5.7% 29,745 3.3% 11,881 3.6% 2,968 7.4% 3,450 4.8%Manufacturing 24,157 19.5% 9,963 28.6% 20,396 11.8% 70,607 7.9% 28,067 8.5% 5,280 13.1% 7,281 10.1%Wholesale Trade 6,053 4.9% 2,015 5.8% 10,905 6.3% 52,039 5.9% 13,147 4.0%2,526 6.3% 2,528 3.5%Retail Trade 18,647 15.1% 2,634 7.6% 18,153 10.5% 73,003 8.2% 24,683 7.5%4,074 10.1% 10,200 14.1%Transportation & Warehousing 4,547 3.7% 313 0.9% 9,817 5.7% 19,863 2.2%5,505 1.7% 1,110 2.7% 1,745 2.4%Information 574 0.5% 436 1.3% 3,988 2.3% 21,510 2.4% 7,500 2.3% 321 0.8% 4880.7%Finance & Insurance 2,198 1.8% 737 2.1% 9,996 5.8% 63,792 7.2% 16,021 4.8% 590 1.5% 3,517 4.9%Real Estate, Rental & Leasing 1,399 1.1% 389 1.1% 3,519 2.0% 26,036 2.9% 4,423 1.3% 297 0.7% 701 1.0%Professional, Scientific & Tech Services 3,773 3.0% 995 2.9% 9,119 5.3% 80,841 9.1% 16,575 5.0% 1,127 2.8% 3,230 4.5%Management of Companies & Enterprises 891 0.7% 1,132 3.3% 3,449 2.0% 57,942 6.5% 28,628 8.7% 133 0.3% 1,373 1.9%Admin & Support & Waste Mgmt & Remediation 6,449 5.2% 944 2.7% 7,4064.3% 60,434 6.8% 14,820 4.5% 1,859 4.6% 2,702 3.7%Educational Services 10,359 8.4% 3,786 10.9% 16,308 9.4% 69,650 7.8% 36,404 11.0% 3,480 8.6% 8,076 11.2%Health Care & Social Assistance 15,764 12.7% 4,388 12.6% 20,658 12.0%133,853 15.1% 55,648 16.8% 4,038 10.0% 10,950 15.2%Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 2,221 1.8% 670 1.9% 2,234 1.3% 13,4021.5% 5,375 1.6% 1,228 3.0% 1,329 1.8%Accommodation & Food Services 8,195 6.6% 2,209 6.4% 13,248 7.7% 64,4247.3% 24,172 7.3% 6,781 16.8% 7,273 10.1%Other Services (except Public Administration) 4,808 3.9% 916 2.6% 6,758 3.9% 28,452 3.2% 11,530 3.5% 1,713 4.2% 3,035 4.2%Public Administration 5,825 4.7% 1,427 4.1% 5,643 3.3% 19,163 2.2% 25,845 7.8% 2,480 6.1% 3,676 5.1%Sources: U.S. Census Bureau (On The Map); MN DEED; ESRI Inc.; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC$896 $846$72,847 $88,204 $78,131 $67,047 $55,608 $87,923 $85,126$962 $1,004 $989 $1,274 $1,15068,106 20,791130,877 37,36455,673 13,996TABLE EMP‐21EMPLOYMENT SUMMARYWASHINGTON COUNTY COMPARED TO OTHER METRO AREA COUNTIES2014AnokaWashingtonDakota HennepinCarver RamseyScott93,292 443,851 218,725 22,434 41,679139,355 157,950 141,654 55,479 101,38179,476 444,508 111,902 17,935 30,445
HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 89
Introduction
The variety and condition of the housing stock in a community provides the basis for an attrac‐
tive living environment. Housing functions as a building block for neighborhoods and goods
and services. We examined the housing stock in each submarket by reviewing data on the age
of the existing housing supply; examining residential building trends since 2000; and reviewing
housing data from the American Community Survey (2011‐2015 Estimates).
Residential Construction Trends 2000 to Present
Maxfield Research obtained data on the number of building permits issued for new housing
units from 2000 through November 2016 from the U.S. Census Building Permits Survey (BPS)
and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development State of the Cities Data Systems
(HUD SOCDS). The purpose of the BPS is to provide national, state, and local statistics on the
new privately‐owned housing units authorized by building or zoning permits in the United
States. Statistics from the BPS are based on reports submitted by local permit officials and the
survey covers all “permit‐issuing places” which are jurisdictions that issue building or zoning
permits. Areas for which no authorization is required to construct new housing units are not
included in the survey. The HUD SOCDS takes information from the BPS and includes any
subsequent Census revisions to achieve higher quality data (2011‐2015 estimates).
Table HC‐1 displays the number of units permitted for single‐family homes and multifamily
structures (includes duplexes, structures with three or four units, and structures with five or
more units) from 2005 through November 2016, which is the most recent full‐year data availa‐
ble. Multifamily housing includes for‐sale and rental units and is defined as residential buildings
containing units built one on top of another and those built side‐by‐side which do not have a
ground‐to‐roof wall and/or have common facilities. Single‐family housing is defined as fully
detached, semi‐detached (semi‐attached, side‐by‐side), row houses, and townhouses. For
attached units, each unit must be separated from the adjacent unit by a ground‐to‐roof wall
and they must not share systems or utilities to be classified as single‐family.
Building permits were issued for 12,380 residential units in Washington County from 2005
to 2015, equating to roughly 1,125 units per year. Roughly 82% of these units were single‐
family while the remaining 18% were in multifamily structures. Through November 2016,
Washington County added 944 residential units with 64% single family units and 36% multi‐
family units.
The City of Woodbury issued permits for the most residential units between 2005 and
November 2016 with 5,323 units. According to the 2016 year‐end Keystone Report for the
Builders Association of the Twin Cities (BATC), Woodbury was ranked as the fourth highest
community in the Metro Area in number of residential permits issued, behind only Lakeville,
Blaine, and Plymouth.
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As illustrated in the following graph, 2005 was the most active year for residential permit
activity in Washington County, with a total of 2,662 units permitted, followed by 2006
(1,671 units). Residential construction activity slowed substantially in 2009, as 581 units
were permitted in the county. As of 2015, 1,002 permits were issued in the county.
HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 91 200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016*200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016*200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016*Northeast381693988 515151822 3816939885151518 22 0000000000 0 0Scandia341373987 51171415 341373987511714 15 0000000000 0 0Marine on St. Croix4 3 20001 0 01 0 0 4320001001 0 0 0000000000 0 0May Township0 0 00000 0 47 4 7 0000000047 4 7 0000000000 0 0Stillwater294 87 95 75 42 178 72 146 93 102 50 104 265 87 95 75 42 58 72 84 93 72 45 37 29 0 0 0 0 120062030 5 67Stillwater244565060344447394245132824456506034444739424513 23 0000000000 0 5Oak Park Heights301119401200630301062 111194000100 5 0 290000120062030562Bayport7 9 18 8 6 13 11 25 23 7 6 10791886131125237 6 10 0000000000 0 0Baytown Township9 7 7 3 1 01418261415 19773101418261415 1 0000000000 0 0Stillwater Township4410110126634410110126 6 30000000000 0 0Southeast40322518812221920183123 403225188122219181831 23 0000000020 0 0Lakeland2 3 11004 2 62 1 1 2311004242 1 1 0000000020 0 0Lakeland Shores0 0 00000 0 00 0 0 0000000000 0 0 0000000000 0 0Lake St. Croix Beach1 0 00000 0 10 0 0 1000000010 0 0 0000000000 0 0St. Mary's Point2 0 00032 0 00 3 0 2000032000 3 0 0000000000 0 0Afton6 7 76145 5 85117 677614558511 7 0000000000 0 0Denmark Township131473346 3 37 9 8 131473346337 9 8 0000000000 0 0West Lakeland Townshi168108415 9 24 7 7 168108415924 7 7 0000000000 0 0Forest Lake121 130 83 20 11 49 88 59 98 79 81 104 115 92 83 20 11 19 22 29 68 60 45 24 6 38 0 0 0 30 66 303019 36 80Hugo76533824919014886508951496993765338249186116625089514969 93 000432240000 0 0Mahtomedi5231777513143018229711 43317775131430182218 11 9000000000790Mahtomedi312869431111261316915 31286943111126131612 5 0000000000790Birchwood Village1 0 20101 0 00 2 0 1020101000 2 0 0000000000 0 0Pine Springs0000000100100000000100 1 0 0000000000 0 0Willernie9 0 00000 0 02 0 0 0000000002 0 0 9000000000 0 0Grant9 2 32122 3 30 2 3 9232122330 2 3 0000000000 0 0Dellwood2131000024132131000024 1 3 0000000000 0 0Oakdale39801647167018 6 962 11 6 14191681131186 3 2 11 6 25610395390 0930 0 0Oakdale39 80 16 47 16 70 18 6 96 2 11 6 14 19 16 8 11 31 18 6 3 2 11 6 25 61 0 39 5 39 0 0 93 0 0 0Landfall0 0 00000 0 00 0 0 0000000000 0 0 0000000000 0 0Lake Elmo2229262316261930361 0 0 2229262316261930361 0 0 0000000000 0 0Woodbury981 713 432 342 255 519 286 374 387 342 417 305 905 713 432 216 255 277 272 329 383297 257 295 76 0 0 126 0 242 14 45 4 45 160 10Cottage Grove310 215 247 94 71 98 52 59 71 83 78 276 310 215 78 92 69 54 52 59 65 83 78 92 0 0 169 2 2 440060 0184Cottage Grove262 185 236 88 66 89 49 51 57 77 65 272 262 185 67 86 64 45 49 51 51 77 65 88 0 0 169 2 2 440060 0184Grey Cloud Island0 0 10110 0 00 1 0 0010110000 1 0 0000000000 0 0St. Paul Park472855473 7113 7 4 4728554737113 7 4 0000000000 0 0Newport1 251010 1 33 5 0 1251010133 5 0 0000000000 0 0East Total372 135 129 96 59 198 102 170 128 135 99 149 343 135 129 96 59 78 102 108 126 105 94 82 290 0 00120062230 5 67West Total2,290 1,536 1,130 723 522 861 527 647 757 578 753 795 2,174 1,437 961 552 483 482 447 572 624 514 478 521 116 99 169 171 39 379 80 75 133 64 275 274Washington Total2,662 1,671 1,259 819 581 1,059 629 817 885 713 852 944 2,517 1,572 1,090 648 542 560 549 680 750 619 572 603 145 99 169 171 39 499 80 137 135 94 280 341Metro Area Total15,985 11,633 7,522 4,268 3,692 4,154 4,130 10,075 5,224 4,571 4,761 66,521 11,311 8,287 5,301 3,018 2,722 2,850 2,912 4,431 5,224 4,571 4,761 5,062 4,674 3,346 2,221 1,250 970 1,304 1,218 5,644 7,204 6,098 7,639 4,626* Data for 2016 is through November and is reported data onlySources: US HUD State of the Cities Data Systems; US Census Bureau; Metropolitan Council Residential Building Permit Survey; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLCTotal UnitsSingle‐Family UnitsMultifamily UnitsTABLE HC‐1ANNUAL RESIDENTIAL BUILDING ACTIVITY, UNITS PERMITTEDWASHINGTON COUNTY2005 ‐ 2016*
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American Community Survey
The American Community Survey (“ACS”) is an ongoing statistical survey administered by the
U.S. Census Bureau that is sent to approximately three million addresses annually. The survey
gathers data previously contained only in the long form of the Decennial Census. As a result,
the survey is ongoing and provides a more “up‐to‐date” portrait of demographic, economic,
social and household characteristics every year, not just every ten years. Whenever possible,
Maxfield Research used the five‐year estimates as they provide the largest sample size and
have a longer period of data collection. All ACS surveys are subject to sampling error and
uncertainty. The ACS reports margins of errors (MOEs) with estimates for most standard
census geographies. The MOE is shown by reliability from low, medium to high. Due to the
MOE, 2015 ACS data may have inconsistencies with previous 2010 Census data.
Tables HC‐2 through HC‐9 show key data from the American Community Survey for Washington
County. For a comparison, information for Washington County is broken down by submarket.
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Housing Units by Occupancy Status & Tenure
Tenure is a key variable that analyzes the propensity for householders to rent or own their
housing. Tenure is an integral statistic used by numerous governmental agencies and private
sector industries to assess neighborhood stability. Table HC‐2 shows trends for 2010 and 2015.
The number of housing units is estimated to have increased by 2,560 over the period, with
the majority of the new units as renter‐occupied (95%). The majority of units overall con‐
tinues to be owner‐occupied at 77%. Due however, to the increase in rental units, the per‐
centage of owner‐occupied units decreased from 79% to 77%. Vacant units are estimated
to have decreased over the period, representing 4% of the units in 2015 compared to 5% in
2010.
Except for Lake Elmo, the percentage of owner‐occupied housing units dropped in every
other submarket while the percentage of renter‐occupied units increased between 2010
and 2015.
Lake Elmo had the highest percentage of owner‐occupied housing units in Washington
County at 92% as of the 2010 Census and 2015 American Community Survey. The highest
proportion of renter‐occupied housing units is found in the Stillwater (26%) and Forest Lake
submarkets (25%).
An estimated 4% of Washington County’s housing stock was vacant in 2015. It is important
to note, however, that the Census’s definition of vacant housing units includes: units that
have been rented or sold, but not yet occupied, seasonal housing (vacation or second
homes), housing for migrant workers, and even boarded‐up housing. Thus, the U.S. Census
vacancy figures are not always a true indicator of adequate housing available for new
households wishing to move into the area. Based on data in Table HC‐3, approximately 28%
of the vacant units were for seasonal use and 10% were for sale.
HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 95 TotalUnitsTotalUnitsNo. No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. No. No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct.Northeast3,278 2,670 81% 214 7% 394 12% 3,399 2,682 79% 236 7% 481 14%Stillwater12,081 8,447 70% 2,823 23% 811 7% 12,440 8,481 68% 3,227 26% 732 6%Southeast4,634 4,135 89% 249 5% 250 5% 4,784 4,178 87% 284 6% 322 7%Forest Lake7,508 5,362 71% 1,652 22% 494 7% 7,475 5,225 70% 1,857 25% 393 5%Hugo5,189 4,539 87% 451 9% 199 4% 5,410 4,484 83% 693 13% 233 4%Mahtomedi5,798 4,891 84% 683 12% 224 4% 5,970 4,929 83% 823 14% 218 4%Oakdale11,673 8,704 75% 2,509 21% 460 4% 11,759 8,634 73% 2,811 24% 314 3%Lake Elmo2,877 2,648 92% 131 5% 98 3% 2,931 2,690 92% 204 7% 37 1%Woodbury23,568 18,290 78% 4,304 18% 974 4% 24,744 18,712 76% 5,347 22% 685 3%Cottage Grove15,768 13,032 83% 2,125 13% 611 4% 16,022 12,849 80% 2,586 16% 587 4%East Total 19,993 15,252 76% 3,286 16% 1,455 7% 20,623 15,341 74% 3,747 18%1,535 7%West Total 72,381 57,466 79% 11,855 16% 3,060 4% 74,311 57,523 77% 14,321 19% 2,467 3%Washington Total 92,374 72,718 79% 15,141 16% 4,515 5% 94,934 72,864 77% 18,068 19% 4,002 4%Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLCOwner‐OccupiedRenter‐OccupiedVacantUnitsOwner‐OccupiedRenter‐OccupiedVacantUnitsTABLE HC‐2HOUSING UNITS BY OCCUPANCY STATUS AND TENUREWASHINGTON COUNTY2010 & 20152010 2015
HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 96 Total VacantNo. No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No. Pct.Northeast481 9 2% 0 0% 6 1% 0 0% 407 85% 0 0% 59 12%Stillwater732 40 5% 47 6% 77 11% 49 7% 219 30% 0 0% 300 41%Southeast322 26 8% 0 0% 69 21% 0 0% 155 48% 0 0% 72 22%Forest Lake393 50 13% 0 0% 40 10% 0 0% 79 20% 0 0% 224 57%Hugo233 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 68 29% 0 0% 0 0% 165 71%Mahtomedi218 0 0% 2 1% 28 13% 0 0% 32 15% 0 0% 156 72%Oakdale309 68 22% 29 9% 7 2% 0 0% 16 5% 0 0% 189 61%Lake Elmo37 00%00%00%00%00%00%37100%Woodbury685 108 16% 180 26% 10 1% 70 10% 90 13% 0 0% 227 33%Cottage Grove587 37 6% 0 0% 172 29% 62 11% 108 18% 26 4% 182 31%East Total 1,535 75 5% 47 3% 152 10% 49 0 781 51% 0 0% 431 28%West Total 2,462 263 11% 211 9% 257 10% 200 0 325 13% 26 1% 1,180 48%Washington Total 3,997 338 8% 258 6% 409 10% 249 6% 1,106 28% 26 1% 1,611 40%Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLCSold, Not OccupiedFor Seasonal UseNote: Other Vacant includes the following types of vacant units: foreclosure, personal/family reasons, legal proceedings, preparing unit to rent or sell, held for storage of furniture, needs repairs, currently being repaired/renovated, specific use housing (i.e. church, military, guest house, etc.), extended absence (gone for six months or more), abandoned/possibly condemned, don't know.Other VacantFor Migratory WorkersTABLE HC‐3VACANCY STATUSWASHINGTON COUNTY20152015For RentRented, Not Occupied For Sale Only
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Age of Housing Stock
The following graph shows the age distribution of the housing stock based on data from the
U.S. Census Bureau and the American Community Survey (5‐Year). Table HC‐4 includes the
number of housing units built in Washington County, prior to 1940 and during each decade
since.
The greatest proportion of homes in Washington County was built in the 1990s, which
comprised 23% of the entire housing stock in the county. As a comparison, only 14% of
homes in the Metro Area were built in the 1990s.
The Stillwater submarket had the highest proportion of older homes as 18% of the housing
supply was built prior to 1940, followed by the Mahtomedi and Northeast submarkets with
15% each. Conversely, the largest proportions of newer homes were located in Hugo
(27.5%), Woodbury (16.7%) and Forest Lake (9.7%) built after 2010. Hugo is estimated to
have the highest proportion of their housing stock built after 2000 with 70%.
Since 2010, 11,351 housing units are estimated to have been added to the county’s hous‐
ing stock, roughly 11% of the total. Woodbury was the leader with 4,796 new units, fol‐
lowed by Hugo with 1,980 new units.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Northeast
Stillwater
Southeast
Forest Lake
Hugo
Mahtomedi
Oakdale
Lake Elmo
Woodbury
Cottage Grove
East Total
West Total
Washington
Housing Units Built by Decade
Washington County
2015 <1940
1940s
1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010 or
later
HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 98 Total Med. Yr.UnitsBuilt No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct. No. Pct.Northeast 3,485 1975 518 14.9% 140 4.0% 246 7.1% 324 9.3% 747 21.4% 491 14.1%533 15.3% 349 10.0% 137 3.9%Stillwater 13,372 1977 2,370 17.7%365 2.7% 693 5.2% 963 7.2% 2,193 16.4% 1,490 11.1% 1,778 13.3% 2,348 17.6% 1,172 8.8%Southeast 4,977 1978 480 9.6% 165 3.3% 338 6.8% 658 13.2% 946 19.0% 538 10.8%1,019 20.5% 600 12.1% 233 4.7%Forest Lake 8,011 1985 583 7.3% 221 2.8% 391 4.9% 515 6.4% 1,578 19.7% 1,06213.3% 1,085 13.5% 1,798 22.4% 778 9.7%Hugo 7,212 2001 196 2.7% 20 0.3% 61 0.8% 241 3.3% 443 6.1% 373 5.2% 805 11.2% 3,093 42.9% 1,980 27.5%Mahtomedi 6,248 1981 911 14.6% 296 4.7% 302 4.8% 476 7.6% 838 13.4% 1,279 20.5% 1,125 18.0% 673 10.8% 348 5.6%Oakdale 12,011 1987 349 2.9% 185 1.5% 599 5.0% 911 7.6% 2,068 17.2% 2,602 21.7% 3,575 29.8% 1,341 11.2% 381 3.2%Lake Elmo 3,103 1981 287 9.2% 93 3.0% 192 6.2% 373 12.0% 555 17.9% 347 11.2% 534 17.2% 505 16.3% 217 7.0%Woodbury 28,726 1965 128 0.4% 44 0.2% 335 1.2% 1,000 3.5% 2,139 7.4% 4,102 14.3% 9,584 33.4% 6,598 23.0% 4,796 16.7%Cottage Grove 17,147 1980 733 4.3% 323 1.9% 1,597 9.3% 2,356 13.7% 2,898 16.9% 1,994 11.6% 3,602 21.0% 2,335 13.6% 1,309 7.6%East Total 21,834 1977 3,368 15.4% 670 3.1% 1,277 5.8% 1,945 8.9% 3,886 17.8% 2,519 11.5% 3,330 15.3% 3,297 15.1% 1,542 7.1%West Total 82,458 1988 3,187 3.9% 1,182 1.4% 3,477 4.2% 5,872 7.1% 10,519 12.8% 11,759 14.3% 20,310 24.6% 16,343 19.8% 9,809 11.9%Washington Total 104,292 1986 6,555 6.3% 1,852 1.8% 4,754 4.6% 7,817 7.5%14,405 13.8% 14,278 13.7% 23,640 22.7% 19,640 18.8% 11,351 10.9%Sources: U.S. Census Bureau ‐ American Community Survey; Maxfield Research & Consluting, LLCTABLE HC‐4WASHINGTON COUNTY<1940 1940s 1950s 1990s 2000 to 2009AGE OF HOUSING STOCK (OCCUPIED HOUSING UNITS)20151970s 2010 or later1960s 1980sYear Structure Built
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Housing Units by Structure and Occupancy or (Housing Stock by Structure Type)
Table HC‐5 shows the housing stock in Washington County by type of structure and tenure
based on the 2015 ACS.
The dominant housing type in Washington County is the single‐family detached home,
representing 69% of all housing units in the county. Owner‐occupied single‐family detached
dwellings accounted for nearly 82% of all single‐family owned units. As a comparison, ap‐
proximately 58.5% of all homes in the Metro Area are single‐family detached.
In the Southeast submarket, 98.6% of owned housing units and 90.1% of rented housing
units are single‐family detached dwellings. In the Northeast submarket, 97.8% of owned
housing units and 69.1% of rented housing units are single‐family detached dwellings. Con‐
versely, the Oakdale submarket has only 69.1% of owned units and 8.6% of rented units as
single‐family detached dwellings.
Hugo, Woodbury and Oakdale all have relatively high proportions of housing units that are
one unit, single‐family attached. Many of these units are twinhomes or association‐
maintained detached villas.
The submarkets with the highest proportions of housing units that are rented are Stillwater
(27.6%) and Oakdale (24.6%).
Owner‐Occupied Housing Units by Mortgage Status
Table HC‐6 shows mortgage status and average values from the American Community Survey
for 2015 (5‐Year). Mortgage status provides information on the cost of homeownership when
analyzed in conjunction with mortgage payment data. A mortgage refers to all forms of debt
where the property is pledged as security for repayment of debt. A first mortgage has priority
claim over any other mortgage or if it is the only mortgage. A second (and sometimes third)
mortgage is called a “junior mortgage,” a home equity line of credit (HELOC) would also fall into
this category. Finally, a housing unit without a mortgage is owned free and clear and is debt
free.
Approximately 75% of Washington County homeowners have a mortgage. Comparatively,
about 74% of homeowners in the Metro Area had a mortgage in 2015. About 24% of
homeowners with mortgages in Washington County also have a second mortgage and/or
home equity loan.
The median value for homes with a mortgage for Washington County homeowners was
approximately $254,390. The Lake Elmo submarket had the highest median value at
$405,900 and Oakdale had the lowest at $164,885.
HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 100 Owner‐ Renter‐ Owner‐ Renter‐ Owner‐ Renter‐ Owner‐ Renter‐Units in Structure Occupied Pct. Occupied Pct. Occupied Pct. Occupied Pct. Occupied Pct. Occupied Pct. Occupied Pct. Occupied Pct.1, detached 2,624 97.8% 146 61.9% 7,168 84.5% 619 19.2% 4,118 98.6% 258 90.8% 4,554 87.2% 407 21.9%1, attached 43 1.6% 54 22.9% 857 10.1% 392 12.1% 38 0.9% 3 1.1% 581 11.1% 454 24.4%2 5 0.2% 9 3.8% 17 0.2% 311 9.6% 4 0.1% 7 2.5% 0 0.0% 23 1.2%3 to 4 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 53 0.6% 184 5.7% 4 0.1% 13 4.6% 6 0.1% 15 0.8%5 to 9 5 0.2% 17 7.2% 171 2.0% 338 10.5% 0 0.0% 3 1.1% 13 0.2% 60 3.2%10 to 19 5 0.2% 10 4.2% 25 0.3% 213 6.6% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 7 0.1% 204 11.0%20 to 49 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 110 1.3% 332 10.3% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 396 21.3%50 or more 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 62 0.7% 838 26.0% 3 0.1% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 298 16.0%Mobile home 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 6 0.1% 0 0.0% 11 0.3% 0 0.0% 64 1.2% 0 0.0%Boat, RV, van, etc. 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 12 0.1% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%Total 2,682 100% 236 100% 8,481 100% 3,227 100% 4,178 100% 284 100% 5,225 100% 1,857 100%Owner‐ Renter‐ Owner‐ Renter‐ Owner‐ Renter‐ Owner‐ Renter‐Units in Structure Occupied Pct. Occupied Pct. Occupied Pct. Occupied Pct. Occupied Pct. Occupied Pct. Occupied Pct. Occupied Pct.1, detached 3,071 68.5% 69 10.0% 4,660 94.5% 322 39.1% 5,969 69.1% 242 8.6%2,385 88.7% 76 37.3%1, attached 1,182 26.4% 448 64.6% 219 4.4% 62 7.5% 1,921 22.2% 717 25.5% 27 1.0% 13 6.4%2 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 24 0.5% 20 2.4% 53 0.6% 43 1.5% 0 0.0% 53 26.0%3 to 4 38 0.8% 36 5.2% 0 0.0% 30 3.6% 150 1.7% 177 6.3% 0 0.0% 41 20.1%5 to 9 64 1.4% 90 13.0% 0 0.0% 10 1.2% 139 1.6% 62 2.2% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%10 to 19 33 0.7% 0 0.0% 8 0.2% 8 1.0% 7 0.1% 139 4.9% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%20 to 49 0 0.0% 39 5.6% 0 0.0% 92 11.2% 14 0.2% 414 14.7% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%50 or more 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 10 0.2% 266 32.3% 112 1.3% 935 33.3% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%Mobile home 96 2.1% 11 1.6% 8 0.2% 13 1.6% 269 3.1% 43 1.5% 278 10.3% 21 10.3%Boat, RV, van, etc. 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 39 1.4% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%Total 4,484 100% 693 100% 4,929 100% 823 100% 8,634 100% 2,811 100% 2,690 100% 204 100%Owner‐ Renter‐ Owner‐ Renter‐ Owner‐ Renter‐Units in Structure Occupied Pct. Occupied Pct. Occupied Pct. Occupied Pct. Occupied Pct. Occupied Pct.1, detached 13,417 71.7% 550 10.3% 11,492 89.4% 787 30.4% 59,458 81.6% 3,476 19.2%1, attached 4,296 23.0% 2,119 39.6% 1,083 8.4% 392 15.2% 10,247 14.1% 4,654 25.8%2 43 0.2% 59 1.1% 22 0.2% 112 4.3% 168 0.2% 637 3.5%3 to 4 408 2.2% 160 3.0% 16 0.1% 370 14.3% 675 0.9% 1,026 5.7%5 to 9 328 1.8% 389 7.3% 40 0.3% 161 6.2% 760 1.0% 1,130 6.3%10 to 19 46 0.2% 292 5.5% 15 0.1% 283 10.9% 146 0.2% 1,149 6.4%20 to 49 0 0.0% 505 9.4% 0 0.0% 235 9.1% 124 0.2% 2,013 11.1%50 or more 150 0.8% 1,273 23.8% 0 0.0% 218 8.4% 337 0.5% 3,828 21.2%Mobile home 24 0.1% 0 0.0% 173 1.3% 28 1.1% 929 1.3% 116 0.6%Boat, RV, van, etc. 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 8 0.1% 0 0.0% 20 0.0% 39 0.2%Total 18,712 100% 5,347 100% 12,849 100% 2,586 100% 72,864 100% 18,068 100%Sources: U.S. Census Bureau ‐ American Community Survey; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLCSOUTHEASTOAKDALETOTALTABLE HC‐5HOUSING UNITS BY STRUCTURE & TENUREWASHINGTON COUNTY2015NORTHEAST STILLWATERFOREST LAKEHUGO MAHTOMEDILAKE ELMOWOODBURY COTTAGE GROVE
HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 101 Mortgage StatusNo. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. Pct. Pct.Housing units without a mortgage 915 34.1 2,415 28.5 1,265 30.3 1,205 23.1 854 19.0 1,579 32.0Housing units with a mortgage/debt 1,767 65.9 6,066 71.5 2,913 69.7 4,020 76.9 3,630 81.0 3,350 68.0Second mortgage only 60 3.4 433 7.1 116 4.0 170 4.2 237 6.5 196 5.9Home equity loan only384 21.7 1,261 20.8 649 22.3 590 14.7 354 9.8 813 24.3Both second mortgage and equity loan 32 1.8 44 0.7 14 0.5 49 1.2 31 0.9 240.7No second mortgage or equity loan 1,291 73.1 4,328 71.3 2,134 73.3 3,211 79.9 3,008 82.9 2,317 69.2Total 2,682 100.0 8,481 100.0 4,178 100.0 5,225 100.0 4,484 100.0 4,929 100.0Median Value by Mortgage StatusHousing units with a mortgageHousing units without a mortgageMortgage StatusNo. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct.Housing units without a mortgage 2,317 26.8 965 35.9 4,168 22.3 2,817 21.9 18,500 25.4Housing units with a mortgage/debt 6,317 73.2 1,725 64.1 14,544 77.7 10,032 78.1 54,364 74.6Second mortgage only 407 6.4 102 5.9 933 6.4 646 6.43,3006.1Home equity loan only939 14.9 318 18.4 2,183 15.0 1,771 17.79,26217.0Both second mortgage and equity loan 51 0.8 14 0.8 32 0.2 160 1.64510.8No second mortgage or equity loan 4,920 77.9 1,291 74.8 11,39678.4 7,455 74.3 41,351 76.1Total 8,634 100.0 2,690 100.0 18,712 100.0 12,849 100.0 72,864 100.0Median Value by Mortgage StatusHousing units with a mortgageHousing units without a mortgageSources: U.S. Census Bureau ‐ American Community Survey; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC$163,340HUGO$231,100$215,700TOTAL$254,390$240,590$159,950 $313,900SOUTHEAST$349,970$337,500WOODBURY$274,400$262,100OAKDALE LAKE ELMO$192,190 $405,900COTTAGE GROVE$164,885$347,280$356,965$314,145$305,270$273,440$244,930$234,800$211,300TABLE HC‐6OWNER‐OCCUPIED HOUSING UNITS BY MORTGAGE STATUSWASHINGTON COUNTY2015NORTHEASTMAHTOMEDISTILLWATER FOREST LAKE
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Owner‐Occupied Housing Units by Value
Table HC‐7 presents data on housing values summarized by nine price ranges. Housing value
refers to the estimated price point the property would sell if it was for sale. For single‐family
and townhome properties, value includes at the land and the structure. For condominium
units, value refers to only the unit.
The median owner‐occupied home in Washington County was $251,160 or $30,485 higher
than the Metro Area ($220,675).
Median home values in Washington County range from a low of $164,115 in the Cottage
Grove submarket to a high of $369,000 in the Lake Elmo submarket.
Forest Lake, Hugo, Cottage Grove, and Oakdale were the only submarkets below the county
median value.
Renter‐Occupied Units by Contract Rent
Table HC‐8 presents information on the monthly housing costs for renters called contract rent
(also known as asking rent). Contract rent is the monthly rent agreed to regardless of any
utilities, furnishings, fees, or services that may be included.
The median contract rent in Washington County was $1,021. Based on a 30% allocation of
income to housing, a household in Washington County would need an income of about
$40,840 to afford an average monthly rent of $1,021.
Between the submarkets of Washington County, Lake Elmo had the lowest median contract
rent at $728, while Woodbury had the highest at $1,179. However, Lake Elmo has the few‐
est number of rental units and the median contract rent may be skewed by lower cost rent‐
al properties.
Approximately 23% of Washington County renters paying cash have monthly rents ranging
from $750 to $999, 35% had monthly rents ranging from $1,000 to $1,500, and 14% had
monthly rents between $500 and $749.
Housing units without payment of rent (“no cash rent”) make up only 4% of Washington
County renters. Typically, units may be owned by a relative or friend who lives elsewhere
whom allow occupancy without charge. Other sources may include caretakers or ministers
who may occupy a residence without charge.
HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 103 Home ValueNo. Pct. No. Pct. Pct. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct.Less than $50,000 24 0.9 271 3.2 82 2.0 150 2.9 187 4.2 114 2.3$50,000‐$99,999 11 0.4 224 2.6 38 0.9 118 2.3 135 3.0 140 2.8$100,000‐$149,999 112 4.2 558 6.6 205 4.9 800 15.3 595 13.3 162 3.3$150,000‐$199,999 160 6.0 1,651 19.5 431 10.3 987 18.9 895 20.0 427 8.7$200,000‐$299,999 810 30.2 2,602 30.7 875 20.9 1,733 33.2 1,436 32.0 1,24025.2$250,000‐$299,999 1,031 38.4 2,362 27.9 1,647 39.4 1,239 23.7 909 20.3 1,774 36.0$300,000‐$399,999 308 11.5 638 7.5 576 13.8 161 3.1 278 6.2 658 13.3$300,000‐$499,999 111 4.1 103 1.2 155 3.7 25 0.5 31 0.7 179 3.6Greater than $500,000 115 4.3 72 0.8 169 4.0 12 0.2 18 0.4 235 4.8Total 2,682 100.0 8,481 100.0 4,178 100.0 5,225 100.0 4,484 100.0 4,929 100.0Median Home ValueHome ValueNo. Pct. No. Pct. Pct. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct.Less than $50,000 379 4.4 268 10.0 339 1.8 460 3.6 2,274 3.1$50,000‐$99,999 614 7.1 96 3.6 428 2.3 358 2.8 2,162 3.0$100,000‐$149,999 1,811 21.0 35 1.3 2,026 10.8 1,744 13.6 8,048 11.0$150,000‐$199,999 2,017 23.4 143 5.3 2,505 13.4 4,144 32.3 13,360 18.3$200,000‐$249,999 2,956 34.2 456 17.0 6,058 32.4 4,088 31.8 22,254 30.5$250,000‐$299,999 812 9.4 950 35.3 5,752 30.7 1,840 14.3 18,316 25.1$300,000‐$399,999 18 0.2 506 18.8 1,405 7.5 185 1.4 4,733 6.5$400,000‐$499,999 10 0.1 199 7.4 134 0.7 10 0.1 957 1.3Greater than $500,000 17 0.2 37 1.4 65 0.3 20 0.2 760 1.0Total 8,634 100.0 2,690 100.0 18,712 100.0 12,849 100.0 72,864 100.0Median Home ValueSources: U.S. Census Bureau ‐ American Community Survey; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC$265,310 $346,685$183,395 $369,000 $272,000OAKDALE LAKE ELMO WOODBURY COTTAGE GROVETABLE HC‐7OWNER‐OCCUPIED UNITS BY VALUEWASHINGTON COUNTY2015NORTHEAST STILLWATER SOUTHEAST HUGO$335,320 $228,700TOTAL$251,160FOREST LAKE MAHTOMEDI$230,100 $345,025$164,115
HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 104 Contract RentNo. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct.No Cash Rent 54 22.9 108 3.3 42 14.8 45 2.4 72 10.4 87 10.62Cash Rent 182 77.1 3,119 96.7 242 85.2 1,812 97.6 621 89.6 736 89.4$0 to $24900.02136.600.01648.8121.7293.5$250‐$49900.01946.041.4844.5284.016820.4$500‐$7492410.264620.04917.339221.1375.3587.0$750‐$9996728.467020.87325.768136.77611.018222.1$1,000‐$1,5002510.665320.26623.243323.344363.910412.6$1,500+6628.074323.05017.6583.1253.619523.7Total 236 100.0 3,227 100.0 284 100.0 1,857 100.0 693 100.0 823 100.0Median Contract RentContract RentNo. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct.No Cash Rent 100 3.6 9 4.4 104 1.9 137 5.3 758 4.2 9,618 2.60.00.00.00.020.0Cash Rent 2,71196.4195 95.6 5,243 98.1 2,449 94.7 17,310 95.8 355,124 97.4$0 to $2491836.594.400.01274.97374.120,313 5.6$250‐$4992278.152.5881.61445.69425.223,675 6.5$500‐$74944215.78843.12795.258522.62,60014.479,666 21.8$750‐$99976927.43316.291417.173028.24,19523.2107,773 29.5$1,000‐$1,49993333.23818.62,93254.870627.36,33335.193,061 25.5$1,500+1575.62210.81,03019.31576.12,50313.930,636 8.4Total 2,811 100.0 204 100.0 5,347 100.0 2,586 100.0 18,068 100.0 364,742 100.0Median Contract RentSources: U.S. Census Bureau ‐ American Community Survey; Maxfield Research and Consulting$1,120$728 $1,179 $900 $886COTTAGE GROVE METRO AREAWOODBURY TOTAL$1,0112015TABLE HC‐8RENTER‐OCCUPIED UNITS BY CONTRACT RENTWASHINGTON COUNTY$1,098 $871FOREST LAKE MAHTOMEDI$867HUGO$915$1,025NORTHEASTSTILLWATERSOUTHEASTOAKDALE LAKE ELMO$1,041
HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 105
HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 106
Mobility in the Past Year
Table HC‐9 shows the mobility patterns of Washington County residents within the last year.
The majority of residents (89%) did not move within the last year.
Of the residents that moved within the last year, approximately 44% moved outside of
Washington County but within Minnesota and 37% were intra‐county moves (i.e. one loca‐
tion in Washington County to another Washington County location).
A greater proportion of younger age cohorts tended to move within the last year compared
to older age cohorts. Approximately 14% of 18 to 24 year olds moved within the last year
compared to 5% of those age 75+.
HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 107 AgeNo. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. Pct. Pct.Under 18 53,698 24.8% 2,775 27.7% 2,564 21.6% 923 20.5% 20 2.9%18 to 24 15,218 7.0% 1,186 11.8% 1,702 14.3% 802 17.9% 115 16.8%25 to 34 22,527 10.4% 2,276 22.7% 3,360 28.3% 1,344 29.9% 179 26.2%35 to 44 29,083 13.4% 1,303 13.0% 1,696 14.3% 502 11.2% 122 17.9%45 to 54 37,188 17.2% 994 9.9% 1,078 9.1% 368 8.2% 42 6.1%55 to 64 30,744 14.2% 781 7.8% 646 5.4% 166 3.7% 91 13.3%65 to 74 17,191 7.9% 265 2.6% 292 2.5% 146 3.3% 59 8.6%75+10,978 5.1% 437 4.4% 542 4.6% 241 5.4% 55 8.1%Total 216,627 100.0% 10,017 100.0% 11,880 100.0% 4,492 100.0% 683 100.0%Sources: U.S. Census Bureau ‐ American Community Survey; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLCSame House Within Same County AbroadDifferent County Same StateDifferent StateMovedTABLE HC‐9MOBILITY IN THE PAST YEAR BY AGE FOR CURRENT RESIDENCEWASHINGTON COUNTY2015Not Moved
FOR‐SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 108
Introduction
Maxfield Research and Consulting analyzed the for‐sale housing market in Washington County
by collecting data on single‐family and multifamily home sales, active listings, identifying active
subdivisions and pending for‐sale developments; reviewing lender‐mediated property data, and
conducting interviews with local real estate professionals, developers and planning officials.
Home Resale Comparison in Twin Cities Metro Area
Table FS‐1 presents summary resale data for single‐family and multifamily housing units in
Washington County and the other six core Metro Area counties. The table shows the median
resale sales price from 2012 through 2016 according to the Minneapolis Area Association of
Realtors (“MAAR”). Table FS‐2 illustrates key metrics for closed sales in 2016. The following are
the key points from Tables FS‐1 and FS‐2.
In the Seven County Metro Area, Washington County typically posted the third highest
median resale prices during the period. Carver County posted the highest housing resale
prices each year since 2012.
Resales in Washington County have had a median resale price that is an average of 9%
higher than the median for the Metro Area between 2012 and 2016.
Washington County resale home prices increased by 11% between 2012 and 2013. Despite
price gains, the current median resale pricing still remains lower than the peak pricing expe‐
rienced during the housing boom. Based on market performance through 2016, the year’s
sale prices rose 32% from 2012.
County 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Washington $187,900 $209,000 $223,500 $232,500 $247,600
Anoka $167,500 $166,000 $180,000 $195,000 $219,000
Carver $218,000 $234,700 $242,000 $250,000 $262,500
Dakota $167,219 $196,950 $210,000 $226,500 $240,000
Hennepin $165,500 $185,000 $199,900 $216,950 $226,950
Ramsey $135,000 $159,900 $172,900 $179,900 $197,000
Scott $190,000 $217,000 $230,000 $239,500 $252,000
Twin Cities Metro (7‐County) $171,000 $192,400 $205,000 $220,000 $233,250
Source: Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors, Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
TABLE FS‐1
MEDIAN RESALE COMPARISON BY METRO AREA COUNTY
2012 through 2016
FOR‐SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 109
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
$180,000
$200,000
$220,000
$240,000
$260,000
$280,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Median Resale Price by County: '12 through '16
Washington
Anoka
Carver
Dakota
Hennepin
Ramsey
In 2016, Washington County resales accounted for 8% of all transactions listed on the
Multiple Listing Service (MLS) in the seven‐county Metro Area.
• New construction homes accounted for 10% of Washington County sales; higher than the
7% average in the overall Metro Area.
Closed New Townhome/ Pct. of Orig.
Geography Sales Construction Condo Distressed2 CDOM1 List Price
Washington 4,832 9.6% 30.4% 7.0% 68 97.2%
Anoka 6,147 8.6% 20.9% 9.9% 56 98.2%
Carver 1,601 14.0% 26.2% 5.0% 73 97.6%
Dakota 6,022 7.5% 34.2% 6.7% 56 97.8%
Hennepin 17,635 4.6% 25.9% 6.5% 63 97.4%
Ramsey 6,382 2.4% 20.7% 9.1% 62 97.1%
Scott 2,187 6.7% 25.2% 7.0% 69 97.8%
Twin Cities Region 59,988 6.8% 24.1% 7.4% 64 97.5%
Source: Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors, Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
2 Includes foreclosures and short sales
METRO AREA BY COUNTY
Percent
1 Cumulative Days on Market ("CDOM") is the collective sum of days on the market from the current and any
previous listings within the past year.
TABLE FS‐2
RESALE COMPARISON
2016
FOR‐SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 110
Home Resale Comparison in Washington County
Tables FS‐3 to FS‐5 present summary resale data for Washington County submarkets. Tables
FS‐3 and FS‐4 present summary data for resales of single‐family and owned multifamily housing
units for all Washington County submarkets from 2005 through 2016. Table FS‐5 illustrates
resale data by type of sale and submarket based only on 2016 resale activity. All data is
sourced to the Regional Multiple Listing Service of Minnesota (RMLS).
Single‐Family Resales
Between 2000 and 2005, Washington County submarkets experienced rapid home sale
appreciation during the real estate boom, posting a median sales price increase of 42% in
the East Submarket and a 56% increase in the West Submarket. However, after the housing
market plateaued in late 2005 through 2006, Washington County communities experienced
decreasing housing values as the housing market bubble burst. Between 2005 and 2010,
the median resale price declined by 12% in the East Submarket and 18% in the West Sub‐
market.
Washington County home value declines between 2005 and 2010 were on‐par with the
Twin Cities Metro Area (‐23%). Overall, the central cities and inner‐ring suburban areas did
not experience the same deterioration of sale values as did many of the 3rd and 4th tier sub‐
urban communities.
Housing values continued to decline through 2012/2013 in Washington County. The East
submarket experienced an overall decline in the median home value of 18% from 2005
through 2013 while the West submarket had an overall decline of 14% during the same pe‐
riod.
Even after accounting for the downturn in the housing market, Washington County housing
values appreciated by 17% in the East Submarket (2000 through 2013) and 33% in the West
Submarket (same period). From 2000 through 2012, the submarkets with the highest me‐
dian resale appreciation were the Stillwater Area (29%), Hugo (28%), and the Northeast
(27%).
Since 2012, home values have increased significantly. The median homes value in the East
submarket grew by 32% while the West submarket experienced growth of 37%. Both sub‐
markets had median home values higher in 2016 compared to the peak last decade in 2005.
• The number of resales increased significantly from 2011 through 2012 in Washington
County. In 2011, 2,100 single‐family home resales were recorded by the MLS. However, in
2012, more than 3,000 resales were closed, resulting in an increase of 43%. Sales declined
again from 2012 through 2014 but grew to its highest point over the entire period at nearly
3,300 sales.
FOR‐SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 111
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Number SoldYear
Number of Single‐Family Homes Sold
2000 to 2016
Number Sold East Number Sold West
FOR‐SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 112
Avg. Avg.
No. Avg. Median Time on No. Avg. Median Time on
Year Sold Sold Price Sold Price Market
1 Year Sold Sold Price Sold Price Market
1
Northeast Stillwater Area
2000 62 $285,171 $227,500 57 2000 318 $229,673 $189,950 54
2005 56 $397,787 $371,450 95 2005 345 $344,369 $288,000 79
2010 48 $328,290 $289,250 193 2010 280 $290,298 $259,900 165
2011 47 $306,716 $260,000 298 2011 267 $269,605 $229,700 168
2012 87 $299,197 $290,000 244 2012 347 $290,365 $245,000 152
2013 71 $360,862 $328,000 185 2013 378 $297,483 $250,000 106
2014 66 $337,924 $283,500 160 2014 366 $346,102 $322,000 98
2015 76 $366,524 $320,502 158 2015 389 $322,991 $278,900 98
2016 68 $428,685 $380,000 193 2016 401 $364,288 $317,000 103
Pct. Change Pct. Change
00 to 05 ‐10% 39% 63% 67% 00 to 05 8% 50% 52% 46%
05 to 10 ‐14% ‐17% ‐22% 103% 05 to 10 ‐19% ‐16% ‐10% 109%
10 to 16 42% 31% 31% 0% 10 to 16 43% 25% 22% ‐38%
00 to 16 10% 50% 67% 239% 00 to 16 26% 59% 67% 91%
Southeast East Total
2000 156 $289,201 $270,000 58 2000 536 $253,418 $218,500 55
2005 114 $434,847 $362,500 82 2005 515 $370,205 $310,000 81
2010 100 $383,193 $299,900 197 2010 428 $314,744 $271,450 174
2011 93 $366,267 $300,000 215 2011 407 $295,998 $250,000 195
2012 136 $320,844 $281,750 165 2012 570 $298,985 $259,500 170
2013 143 $369,808 $300,000 133 2013 592 $291,462 $255,000 92
2014 117 $407,605 $354,000 140 2014 549 $358,226 $324,000 114
2015 139 $407,717 $335,000 132 2015 604 $347,967 $290,750 112
2016 147 $430,987 $394,120 142 2016 616 $387,313 $342,250 122
Pct. Change Pct. Change
00 to 05 ‐27% 50% 34% 41% 00 to 05 ‐4% 46% 42% 47%
05 to 10 ‐12% ‐12% ‐17% 140% 05 to 10 ‐17% ‐15% ‐12% 115%
10 to 16 47% 12% 31% ‐28% 10 to 16 44% 23% 26% ‐30%
00 to 16 ‐6% 49% 46% 145% 00 to 16 15% 53% 57% 122%
Forest Lake Hugo
2000 187 $198,949 $169,900 44 2000 231 $201,191 $180,200 38
2005 253 $302,826 $280,000 82 2005 177 $381,928 $320,000 66
2010 144 $215,243 $179,900 180 2010 107 $278,255 $259,900 172
2011 190 $192,791 $180,950 167 2011 128 $261,042 $246,500 167
2012 209 $218,037 $209,365 150 2012 156 $270,420 $230,000 112
2013 259 $235,012 $209,500 115 2013 160 $297,707 $284,969 100
2014 204 $276,163 $239,500 114 2014 123 $316,588 $297,500 94
2015 279 $265,737 $245,000 105 2015 156 $355,838 $323,500 76
2016 276 $296,306 $256,250 90 2016 189 $338,620 $319,000 71
Pct. Change Pct. Change
00 to 05 35% 52% 65% 86% 00 to 05 ‐23% 90% 78% 74%
05 to 10 ‐43% ‐29% ‐36% 120% 05 to 10 ‐40% ‐27% ‐19% 161%
10 to 16 92% 38% 42% ‐50% 10 to 16 77% 22% 23% ‐59%
00 to 16 48% 49% 51% 105% 00 to 16 ‐18% 68% 77% 87%
TABLE FS‐3
SINGLE‐FAMILY HOME RESALES
WASHINGTON COUNTY
2000, 2005, 2010 to 2016
CONTINUED
FOR‐SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 113
Avg. Avg.
No. Avg. Median Time on No. Avg. Median Time on
Year Sold Sold Price Sold Price Market
1 Year Sold Sold Price Sold Price Market
1
Mahtomedi/Grant Area Oakdale Area
2000 185 $307,217 $257,500 54 2000 250 $184,823 $169,900 30
2005 156 $447,993 $385,000 72 2005 260 $264,530 $250,000 59
2010 101 $387,424 $329,900 161 2010 221 $198,881 $189,900 104
2011 134 $346,995 $296,500 175 2011 206 $179,774 $170,000 120
2012 143 $326,395 $293,000 182 2012 227 $177,953 $177,000 88
2013 210 $339,847 $283,500 133 2013 281 $195,896 $195,000 74
2014 141 $434,086 $345,000 130 2014 217 $212,945 $210,000 70
2015 201 $446,817 $359,000 109 2015 269 $228,380 $224,900 70
2016 187 $399,414 $370,000 95 2016 331 $244,321 $242,100 50
Pct. Change Pct. Change
00 to 05 ‐16% 46% 50% 33% 00 to 05 4% 43% 47% 97%
05 to 10 ‐35% ‐14% ‐14% 124% 05 to 10 ‐15% ‐25% ‐24% 76%
10 to 16 85% 3% 12% ‐41% 10 to 16 50% 23% 27% ‐52%
00 to 16 1% 30% 44% 76% 00 to 16 32% 32% 42% 67%
Lake Elmo Woodbury
2000 60 $319,690 $311,000 55 2000 733 $259,961 $235,000 41
2005 66 $462,749 $435,500 95 2005 759 $388,938 $348,000 78
2010 63 $456,234 $389,900 230 2010 488 $335,577 $299,950 137
2011 53 $400,594 $379,600 195 2011 530 $301,762 $275,000 139
2012 77 $418,625 $380,000 192 2012 1,065 $260,210 $245,000 104
2013 83 $400,611 $374,900 100 2013 799 $352,091 $329,000 73
2014 91 $479,277 $429,000 124 2014 689 $375,249 $359,000 68
2015 72 $478,556 $411,445 101 2015 766 $380,066 $355,000 79
2016 115 $452,913 $431,545 82 2016 852 $378,026 $359,900 62
Pct. Change Pct. Change
00 to 05 10% 45% 40% 73% 00 to 05 4% 50% 48% 90%
05 to 10 ‐5% ‐1% ‐10% 142% 05 to 10 ‐36% ‐14% ‐14% 76%
10 to 16 83% ‐1% 11% ‐64% 10 to 16 75% 13% 20% ‐55%
00 to 16 92% 42% 39% 49% 00 to 16 16% 45% 53% 51%
Cottage Grove Area West Total
2000 543 $165,894 $149,500 23 2000 2,189 $222,262 $189,500 37
2005 601 $256,778 $216,000 63 2005 2,272 $335,806 $295,000 71
2010 411 $205,899 $179,900 116 2010 1,535 $275,893 $242,500 140
2011 463 $180,414 $160,000 127 2011 1,704 $245,464 $220,000 143
2012 567 $199,593 $175,000 95 2012 2,444 $244,416 $217,500 113
2013 558 $209,078 $193,775 64 2013 2,350 $283,616 $252,500 84
2014 553 $227,917 $212,000 64 2014 2,018 $312,628 $274,400 80
2015 648 $244,975 $224,013 63 2015 2,391 $320,370 $285,000 80
2016 693 $266,053 $243,600 52 2016 2,643 $325,359 $299,000 66
Pct. Change Pct. Change
00 to 05 11% 55% 44% 174% 00 to 05 4% 51% 56% 92%
05 to 10 ‐32% ‐20% ‐17% 84% 05 to 10 ‐32% ‐18% ‐18% 97%
10 to 16 69% 29% 35% ‐55% 10 to 16 72% 18% 23% ‐53%
00 to 16 28% 60% 63% 126% 00 to 16 21% 46% 58% 78%
Washington County
2000 2,725 $231,129 $193,777 20
2005 2,787 $347,223 $299,900 48
2010 1,963 $283,359 $249,900 94
2011 2,111 $265,328 $230,650 102
2012 3,014 $276,655 $244,900 70
2013 2,942 $297,139 $259,900 48
2014 2,567 $329,919 $287,900 49
2015 2,995 $331,953 $289,900 49
2016 3,259 $342,200 $309,000 37
Pct. Change
00 to 05 2% 50% 55% 140%
05 to 10 ‐8% ‐5% ‐4% 2%
10 to 16 66% ‐99% 24% ‐61%
00 to 16 20% ‐99% 59% 85%
¹ Cummulative Days on the Market began in 2006
Sources: Regional Multiple Listing Service of Minnesota (RMLS); Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
TABLE FS‐3
SINGLE‐FAMILY HOME RESALES
WASHINGTON COUNTY
2000, 2005, 2010 to 2016
(continued)
FOR‐SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 114 63.3%34.3%51.6%64.8%77.6%49.5%47.1%40.0%48.1%44.5%‐13.7%‐17.3%‐9.8%‐35.8%‐18.8%‐14.3%‐24.0%‐10.5%‐13.8%‐16.7%18.6%31.4%22.0%42.4%22.7%12.2%27.5%10.7%20.0%35.4%‐40.0%
‐20.0%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
SF Sales Price Pct. Change (00' ‐ 06' vs. 06' ‐ 16')
00 to '05
06' to '10
11 to '16
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000
Price SoldSubmarket
Median Price of Sold Single Family Homes by Submarket
2000 2005 2010 2016
FOR‐SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 115
Owned Multifamily Resales
From 2005 through 2012, owned multifamily resales accounted for an estimated one‐third
of all Washington County resales. In 2012, multifamily resales accounted for 27% of closed
transactions; the lowest percentage over the eight‐year timeframe. In 2016, owned multi‐
family resales accounted for 31% and was at the same percentage from 2013 through 2016.
The West Submarket dominates the owned multifamily resale market. Since 2010, 88% of
Washington County owned multifamily resales have been located in the West Submarket.
The East Submarket averages just over 100 owned multifamily resales per year, while the
West Submarket averages nearly 1,080 resales per year.
Owned multifamily resale transactions in 2016 surpassed the previous peak set in 2005
(considered to be the peak year of the real estate boom). Over 1,475 owned multifamily
sales occurred in 2016 compared to 1,376 in 2005. Owned multifamily sales dropped to
1,080 resales in 2008 when the housing market bust commenced.
Although there are substantially more resales in the West Submarket, resale pricing in the
East Submarket averages 18% higher than the West Submarket.
Days on market (list market time) also decreased from 2012 through 2016 indicating con‐
tinued improvement in the Washington County owned multifamily real estate market.
FOR‐SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 116
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
Price SoldSubmarket
Median Price of Sold Multifamily Homes by Submarket
2000 2005 2010 2016
FOR‐SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 117
Avg. Avg.
No. Avg. Median Time on No. Avg. Median Time on
Year Sold Sold Price Sold Price Market
1 Year Sold Sold Price Sold Price Market
1
Northeast Stillwater Area
2000 ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐2000 72 $143,648 $133,000 54
2005 ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐2005 125 $240,561 $211,066 91
2010 ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐2010 113 $200,224 $169,900 225
2011 1 $220,000 $220,000 40 2011 126 $173,861 $157,995 217
2012 1 $183,500 $183,500 314 2012 122 $194,609 $176,245 181
2013 2 $152,000 $152,000 381 2013 106 $209,694 $184,950 157
2014 ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ 2014 107 $212,832 $177,000 95
2015 ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ 2015 136 $220,622 $188,000 87
2016 2 $194,250 $194,250 56 2016 129 $257,169 $215,000 85
Pct. Change Pct. Change
00 to 05 ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ 00 to 05 74% 67% 59% 69%
05 to 10 ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ 05 to 10 ‐10% ‐17% ‐20% 147%
10 to 16 ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ 10 to 16 14% 28% 27% ‐62%
00 to 16 ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ 00 to 16 79% 79% 62% 57%
Southeast East Total
2000 1 $60,000 $60,000 1 2000 73 $143,648 $133,000 54
2005 2 $250,000 $250,000 98 2005 127 $240,710 $212,000 91
2010 1 $199,900 $199,900 63 2010 114 $200,222 $177,200 224
2011 1 $86,027 $86,027 41 2011 128 $173,169 $156,990 216
2012 2 $128,700 $128,700 194 2012 125 $193,465 $177,500 183
2013 ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ 2013 108 $208,626 $184,450 162
2014 2 $229,950 $229,950 16 2014 109 $213,156 $182,000 93
2015 2 $211,500 $211,500 214 2015 138 $220,490 $188,000 89
2016 5 $231,480 $240,000 60 2016 136 $255,299 $215,000 84
Pct. Change Pct. Change
00 to 05 100% 317% 317% 9700% 00 to 05 74% 68% 59% 69%
05 to 10 ‐50% ‐20% ‐20% ‐36% 05 to 10 ‐10% ‐17% ‐16% 146%
10 to 16 400% 16% 20% ‐5% 10 to 16 19% 28% 21% ‐63%
00 to 16 400% 286% 300% 5900% 00 to 16 86% 78% 62% 56%
Forest Lake Hugo
2000 39 $138,080 $136,840 74 2000 65 $159,580 $143,485 24
2005 95 $210,241 $190,000 120 2005 123 $200,881 $190,500 62
2010 89 $127,387 $115,000 135 2010 167 $141,885 $136,000 140
2011 83 $117,110 $116,000 144 2011 157 $115,270 $103,400 141
2012 59 $126,278 $116,000 117 2012 156 $131,019 $118,500 92
2013 90 $156,089 $138,750 85 2013 182 $156,539 $149,950 65
2014 76 $168,851 $150,000 53 2014 155 $175,296 $159,000 65
2015 110 $186,810 $154,950 62 2015 164 $169,158 $160,000 54
2016 103 $196,359 $170,000 62 2016 192 $193,236 $167,000 54
Pct. Change Pct. Change
00 to 05 144% 52% 39% 62% 00 to 05 89% 26% 33% 158%
05 to 10 ‐6% ‐39% ‐39% 13% 05 to 10 36% ‐29% ‐29% 126%
10 to 16 16% 54% 48% ‐54% 10 to 16 15% 36% 23% ‐61%
00 to 16 164% 42% 24% ‐16% 00 to 16 195% 21% 16% 125%
2000, 2005, 2010 to 2016
CONTINUED
TABLE FS‐4
MULTI‐FAMILY HOME RESALES
WASHINGTON COUNTY
FOR‐SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 118
Avg. Avg.
No. Avg. Median Time on No. Avg. Median Time on
Year Sold Sold Price Sold Price Market
1 Year Sold Sold Price Sold Price Market
1
Mahtomedi Oakdale Area
2000 36 $205,392 $186,985 48 2000 150 $117,959 $114,900 23
2005 5 $298,700 $295,000 44 2005 241 $180,905 $179,000 69
2010 7 $177,643 $159,900 176 2010 143 $130,474 $124,800 166
2011 15 $186,460 $186,460 110 2011 161 $101,311 $94,000 145
2012 13 $185,685 $176,500 104 2012 157 $102,219 $93,000 101
2013 20 $206,110 $195,600 94 2013 180 $129,810 $123,450 87
2014 10 $262,870 $255,000 32 2014 169 $137,099 $135,800 65
2015 20 $240,935 $230,000 92 2015 190 $147,690 $144,900 54
2016 23 $249,970 $229,750 104 2016 220 $158,092 $150,000 46
Pct. Change Pct. Change
00 to 05 ‐86% 45% 58% ‐8% 00 to 05 61% 53% 56% 200%
05 to 10 40% ‐41% ‐46% 300% 05 to 10 ‐41% ‐28% ‐30% 141%
10 to 16 229% 41% 44% ‐41% 10 to 16 54% 21% 20% ‐72%
00 to 16 ‐36% 22% 23% 117% 00 to 16 47% 34% 31% 100%
Lake Elmo Woodbury
2000 7 $253,230 $275,000 37 2000 390 $146,388 $127,375 32
2005 3 $334,167 $395,000 63 2005 653 $215,968 $186,000 68
2010 ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ 2010 370 $175,428 $149,900 142
2011 2 $275,000 $275,000 635 2011 435 $157,287 $133,900 141
2012 1 $287,500 $287,500 693 2012 453 $166,350 $145,000 106
2013 1 $355,000 $355,000 20 2013 585 $196,729 $166,900 66
2014 2 $189,200 $189,200 26 2014 542 $215,127 $183,450 59
2015 8 $274,351 $276,656 32 2015 581 $214,179 $182,000 59
2016 61 352,636 $364,545 19 2016 674 $218,804 $193,825 50
Pct. Change Pct. Change
00 to 05 ‐57% 32% 44% 70% 00 to 05 67% 48% 46% 113%
05 to 10 ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ 05 to 10 ‐43% ‐19% ‐19% 109%
10 to 16 ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ 10 to 16 82% 25% 29% ‐65%
00 to 16 771% 39% 33% ‐49% 00 to 16 73% 49% 52% 56%
Cottage Grove Area West Total
2000 51 $112,931 $111,500 36 2000 738 $142,458 $127,000 33
2005 165 $190,231 $183,990 63 2005 1,285 $204,818 $185,000 71
2010 101 $135,295 $129,900 146 2010 877 $152,226 $136,000 146
2011 90 $103,179 $100,000 170 2011 943 $132,748 $115,000 146
2012 96 $105,242 $104,250 95 2012 935 $141,282 $122,000 103
2013 107 $131,414 $124,900 58 2013 1,165 $173,851 $149,900 76
2014 97 $140,282 $136,500 55 2014 1,051 $186,857 $158,900 60
2015 108 $143,656 $147,200 67 2015 1,181 $188,321 $163,000 59
2016 121 $156,803 $154,500 48 2016 1,394 $204,973 $175,000 51
Pct. Change Pct. Change
00 to 05 224% 68% 65% 75% 00 to 05 74% 44% 46% 115%
05 to 10 ‐39% ‐29% ‐29% 132% 05 to 10 ‐32% ‐26% ‐26% 106%
10 to 16 20% 16% 19% ‐67% 10 to 16 59% 35% 29% ‐65%
00 to 16 137% 39% 39% 33% 00 to 16 89% 44% 38% 55%
Washington County
2000 811 $142,345 $127,500 15
2005 1,412 $209,564 $186,895 50
2010 991 $157,981 $139,900 105
2011 1,071 $142,795 $137,546 103
2012 1,060 $151,063 $129,900 51
2013 1,273 $177,745 $152,500 37
2014 1,160 $192,331 $160,450 36
2015 1,319 $194,933 $191,689 38
2016 1,530 $211,867 $176,750 30
Pct. Change
00 to 05 74% 47% 47% 233%
05 to 10 ‐30% ‐25% ‐25% 110%
10 to 16 54% 34% 26% ‐71%
00 to 16 89% 49% 39% 100%
¹ Cummulative Days on the Market began in 2006
Sources: Regional Multiple Listing Service of Minnesota (RMLS); Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
WASHINGTON COUNTY
2000, 2005, 2010 to 2016
(continued)
TABLE FS‐4
MULTI‐FAMILY HOME RESALES
FOR‐SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 119
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000
Median PriceSubmarket
Washington County Median Sold Price by Submarket: 2016
Single Family Multifamily
2016 Resales by Sales Type
In the East and West submarkets, 3.5% and 11.5%, respectively of resales were for new
construction homes in 2016. The Lake Elmo Area had the highest percentage (55%) of new
construction among the ten Washington County submarkets.
Distressed sales accounted for 14% of transactions in the East Submarket as compared to
13% in the West Submarket. The percentage of distressed home sales has decreased signif‐
icantly from 2012 when many submarkets experienced a distressed sales rate of nearly 50%.
Owned multifamily resales accounted for 23.5% in the East Submarket and 32% in the West
Submarket. Owned multifamily product submarkets with higher sales percentages includ‐
ed: Hugo (49%), Woodbury (41.5%), Oak Park Heights (40%), and Lake Elmo (35%).
FOR‐SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 120
No. of
Resales New Const. TH/Condo Distressed Orig. List Price DOM
EAST SUMMARY 746 11.0% 18.8% 29.0% 87.4% 108
Northeast
Marine on St. Croix 22 0.0% 4.5% 18.2% 92.9% 217
May township 17 0.0% 0.0% 11.7% 111.7% 21
Scandia 35 0.0% 0.0% 11.4% 97.3% 99
Southeast
Afton 42 4.8% 0.0% 4.8% 95.3% 194
Lake St. Croix Beach 16 0.0% 12.5% 25.0% 98.7% 94
Lakeland 28 0.0% 3.6% 7.1% 99.2% 114
Lakeland Shores 3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 97.8% 196
West Lakeland township 46 2.2% 0.0% 26.1% 96.5% 130
Stillwater Area
Bayport 33 0.0% 12.1% 6.1% 96.2% 104
Oak Park Heights 58 0.0% 39.7% 8.6% 98.0% 102
Stillwater 402 5.7% 25.4% 12.9% 97.5% 86
Baytown township 23 26.0% 0.0% 4.3% 96.1% 201
Stillwater township 21 4.8% 0.0% 19.0%100.0% 175
WEST SUMMARY 3,134 11.8% 29.8% 38.5% 94.9% 59
Cottage Grove Area
Cottage Grove 680 9.7% 15.0% 20.6% 98.7% 51
Newport 42 2.4% 9.5% 14.3% 97.7% 56
St. Paul Park 91 4.3% 11.0% 31.9% 99.3% 50
Grey Cloud Island township 3 0.0% 0.0% 66.7% 100.0% 18
Hugo 386 11.7% 49.0% 15.0% 98.5% 62
Lake Elmo 190 55.3% 34.7% 2.1% 98.5% 69
Mahtomedi Area
Birchwood Village 9 0.0% 0.0% 44.4% 96.7% 170
Dellwood 17 0.0% 0.0% 23.5% 96.1% 176
Grant 41 0.0% 0.0% 9.8% 96.5% 127
Mahtomedi 118 4.2% 17.8% 4.2% 97.2% 71
Pine Springs 4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 92.7% 90
Willernie 11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%100.0% 64
Woodbury 1,542 11.3% 41.5% 9.5% 98.7% 57
Source: Regional Multiple Listing Service of Minnesota (RMLS), Maxfield Research and Consulting, LLC
TABLE FS‐5
RESALE TYPE
WASHINGTON COUNTY
2016
PERCENT
FOR‐SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 121
Current Supply of Homes on the Market
To more closely examine the current market for available owner‐occupied housing in Washing‐
ton County, we reviewed the current supply of homes on the market (listed for sale). Table FS‐
6 shows homes currently listed for sale in Washington County distributed into 11 price ranges.
The data was provided by the Regional Multiple Listing Service of Minnesota (RMLS) and is
based on active listings as of January 2017. It is noted here that January is usually a low activity
month for listings. However, in general, months of supply on the market has been consistently
low throughout the Metro Area for the past two years. MLS listings generally account for the
vast majority of all residential sale listings in a given area (95%). Table FS‐7 summarizes active
listings by submarket and housing type. Table FS‐8 shows listings by home style (i.e. one‐story,
two‐story, townhome, condominium) and illustrates key metrics for each housing type. Key
findings from the tables follow.
As of January 2017, there were 800 homes listed for sale in Washington County communi‐
ties. The majority, 75%, of the listings were in the West Submarket. Single‐family homes
accounted for 81% of all current listings in Washington County.
The median list price in Washington County was $410,665 ($439,900 for single‐family
homes and $256,900 for owned multifamily homes). The median sale price is generally a
more accurate indicator of housing values in a community than the average sale price. Av‐
erage sale prices can be easily skewed by a few very high‐priced or very low‐priced homes
in any given year, whereas the median sale price better represents the pricing of a majority
of homes in a given market.
The median list price is 22% higher in the East Submarket ($500,000) as compared to the
West Submarket ($389,900).
Based on a median list price in Washington County of $410,665, the income required to
afford a home at this price would be $117,300 to $136,900, based on a standard of 3.0 to
3.5 times the median household income (and assuming households do not have a high level
of debt). A household with significantly more equity (in an existing home and/or savings)
could afford a higher‐priced home. An estimated 40% of Washington County households
have annual household incomes at or above $100,000 compared to 34% of the Twin Cities
Metro Area. The median household income for Washington County was $85,126 as of 2016
compared to $70,404 for the Twin Cities Metro Area.
Less than 1% of Washington County listings are priced under $100,000. Five percent of
listings in the Oakdale submarket are priced under $100,000. In Washington County, 11.5%
of listings are priced between $100,000 and $200,000. An estimated 44% of homes are
listed from $300,000 to $500,000 and another 17% are listed from $500,000 to $749,999.
Homes priced from $300,000 to $749,999 constitute 61% of all homes listed.
FOR‐SALE MARKET ANALYSIS MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 122 Price Range No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. No.Pct.< $49,999 0 0.0% 0 ‐‐ 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 ‐‐ 0 0.0% 0 0.0%$50,000 to $99,999 0 0.0% 0 ‐‐ 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 ‐‐ 0 0.0% 0 0.0%$100,000 to $149,999 0 0.0% 0 ‐‐ 2 1.8% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 ‐‐ 2 1.1% 0 0.0%$150,000 to $199,999 1 3.1% 0 ‐‐ 2 1.8% 1 7.1% 1 2.3% 0 ‐‐ 4 2.2% 1 7.1%$200,000 to $249,999 1 3.1% 0 ‐‐ 3 2.8% 4 28.6% 2 4.5% 0 ‐‐ 6 3.2% 4 28.6%$250,000 to $299,999 1 3.1% 0 ‐‐ 4 3.7% 4 28.6% 0 0.0% 0 ‐‐ 5 2.7% 4 28.6%$300,000 to $399,999 1 3.1% 0 ‐‐ 22 20.2% 3 21.4% 4 9.1% 0 ‐‐ 27 14.6% 3 21.4%$400,000 to $499,999 5 15.6% 0 ‐‐ 30 27.5% 1 7.1% 6 13.6% 0 ‐‐ 41 22.2% 1 7.1%$500,000 to $749,999 14 43.8% 0 ‐‐ 30 27.5% 0 0.0% 10 22.7% 0 ‐‐ 54 29.2% 0 0.0%$750,000 to $999,999 5 15.6% 0 ‐‐ 10 9.2% 0 0.0% 7 15.9% 0 ‐‐ 22 11.9% 0 0.0%$1,000,000 and Over 4 12.5% 0 ‐‐ 6 5.5% 1 7.1% 14 31.8% 0 ‐‐ 24 13.0% 1 7.1%32 100.0% 0 ‐‐ 109 100% 14 100% 44 100% 0 ‐‐ 185 100% 14 100%MinimumMaximumMedianAveragePrice Range No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. No.Pct.< $49,999 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%$50,000 to $99,999 1 1.5% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 1 1.7% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 2 9.1%$100,000 to $149,999 2 3.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 2 10.5% 1 1.7% 0 0.0% 4 16.0% 13 59.1%$150,000 to $199,999 2 3.0% 4 33.3% 0 0.0% 8 42.1% 4 6.9% 1 50.0% 2 8.0% 4 18.2%$200,000 to $249,999 11 16.4% 1 8.3% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 5 8.6% 1 50.0% 7 28.0% 1 4.5%$250,000 to $299,999 10 14.9% 3 25.0% 2 5.6% 0 0.0% 2 3.4% 0 0.0% 5 20.0% 1 4.5%$300,000 to $399,999 18 26.9% 4 33.3% 9 25.0% 7 36.8% 7 12.1% 0 0.0% 5 20.0% 14.5%$400,000 to $499,999 16 23.9% 0 0.0% 15 41.7% 1 5.3% 9 15.5% 0 0.0% 2 8.0% 0 0.0%$500,000 to $749,999 5 7.5% 0 0.0% 7 19.4% 1 5.3% 13 22.4% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%$750,000 to $999,999 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 3 8.3% 0 0.0% 8 13.8% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%$1,000,000 and Over 2 3.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 8 13.8% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%67 100.0% 12 100% 36 100% 19 100% 58 100% 2 100% 25 100% 22 100%MinimumMaximumMedianAverageSingle‐Family Multifamily$175,000 ‐‐ $133,000 $174,900 $181,000 ‐‐$2,500,000 ‐‐ $1,950,000 $1,590,000 $2,495,000 ‐‐$624,950 ‐‐ $475,000 $289,839 $728,950 ‐‐$750,819 ‐‐ $547,445 $379,737 $897,543 ‐‐Single‐Family Multifamily Single‐Family Multifamily Single‐Family Multifamily$68,900 $159,500 $277,500 $120,000 $69,900 $188,000$216,450$2,999,000 $349,900 $895,000 $554,900 $3,500,000 $244,900$255,992 $478,142 $271,484 $678,931 $216,450$347,500 $254,900 $431,450 $189,900 $507,000Northeast Stillwater Area SoutheastForest Lake Hugo Mahtomedi/Grant Area$393,234East TotalSingle‐Family MultifamilyTABLE FS‐6HOMES CURRENTLY LISTED FOR‐SALEWASHINGTON COUNTYSingle‐Family Multifamily Single‐Family Multifamily$133,000 $174,900$2,500,000 $1,590,000$525,000 $289,839$264,948 $150,525$665,890 $379,737Oakdale AreaSingle‐Family Multifamily$115,000 $54,900January 2017CONTINUED$495,000 $324,500$249,900 $129,500
FOR‐SALE MARKET ANALYSIS MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 123 Price Range No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. No.Pct.< $49,999 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%$50,000 to $99,999 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 2 0.4% 2 1.5%$100,000 to $149,999 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 6 9.5% 1 1.2% 1 12.5% 8 1.7% 22 16.2%$150,000 to $199,999 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 11 17.5% 14 16.3% 6 75.0% 22 4.7% 3425.0%$200,000 to $249,999 1 1.7% 0 0.0% 2 1.4% 7 11.1% 19 22.1% 0 0.0% 45 9.6% 10 7.4%$250,000 to $299,999 1 1.7% 3 30.0% 7 5.1% 11 17.5% 8 9.3% 0 0.0% 35 7.5% 18 13.2%$300,000 to $399,999 8 13.8% 1 10.0% 25 18.1% 23 36.5% 22 25.6% 1 12.5% 94 20.1% 37 27.2%$400,000 to $499,999 21 36.2% 4 40.0% 62 44.9% 1 1.6% 17 19.8% 0 0.0% 142 30.3% 6 4.4%$500,000 to $749,999 18 31.0% 2 20.0% 31 22.5% 4 6.3% 4 4.7% 0 0.0% 78 16.7% 75.1%$750,000 to $999,999 4 6.9% 0 0.0% 10 7.2% 0 0.0% 1 1.2% 0 0.0% 26 5.6% 0 0.0%$1,000,000 and Over 5 8.6% 0 0.0% 1 0.7% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 16 3.4% 0 0.0%58 100.0% 10 100.0% 138 100.0% 63 100.0% 86 100.0% 8 100.0% 468 100.0% 136 100.0%MinimumMaximumMedianAveragePrice Range No. Pct. No. Pct.< $49,999 0 0.0% 0 0.0%$50,000 to $99,999 2 0.3% 2 1.3%$100,000 to $149,999 10 1.5% 22 14.7%$150,000 to $199,999 26 4.0% 35 23.3%$200,000 to $249,999 51 7.8% 14 9.3%$250,000 to $299,999 40 6.1% 22 14.7%$300,000 to $399,999 121 18.5% 40 26.7%$400,000 to $499,999 183 28.0% 7 4.7%$500,000 to $749,999 132 20.2% 7 4.7%$750,000 to $999,999 48 7.4% 0 0.0%$1,000,000 and Over 40 6.1% 1 0.7%653 100.0% 150 100.0%MinimumMaximumMedianAverageSources: Regional Multiple Listing Service of Minnesota (RMLS), Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLCLake Elmo Woodbury Cottage Grove AreaSingle‐Family Multifamily Single‐Family Multifamily Single‐Family Multifamily$209,900 $264,990 $209,900 $125,000 $114,900 $119,900$2,500,000 $598,000 $1,199,000 $686,900 $889,000 $339,900$499,450 $425,000 $450,000 $294,900 $316,583 $173,850$618,542 $408,614 $495,662 $291,966 $319,493 $187,025Washington County TotalSingle‐Family Multifamily$69,900 $54,900$3,500,000 $1,590,000$439,900 $256,900$529,450 $276,757TABLE FS‐6 (Con't)HOMES CURRENTLY LISTED FOR‐SALEWASHINGTON COUNTYJanuary 2017West TotalSingle‐Family Multifamily$69,900 $54,900$3,500,000 $686,900$421,700 $249,995$472,895 $264,344
FOR‐SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 124
Owned multifamily homes are priced substantially lower than single‐family homes in both
the East and West Submarkets. The median list price in the East Submarket is $525.000 for
single‐family homes and $289,839 for owned multifamily homes. Similarity, the median list
price varies from $421,700 for single‐family homes to $249,995 in the West Submarket.
Over 60% of Washington County single‐family listings are priced over $400,000. Compara‐
tively, only 10% of owned multifamily homes are priced more than $400,000.
The median list price for single‐family homes ranges from $249,900 in the Oakdale Area to
$728,950 in the Southeast area. The owned multifamily median list price ranges from
$129,500 in the Oakdale Area to $294,900 in the Woodbury Area.
$624,950$475,000$728,950$347,500$431,450$507,000$249,900$499,450$450,000$316,583$525,000$421,700$473,350$289,839$254,900$189,900$216,450$129,500$425,000$294,900$173,850$289,839$249,995$269,917$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
$800,000
Median List PriceSubmarket
Median List Price by Housing Type & Submarket ‐ Janauary 2017
SF MF
The Woodbury Submarket boasts over 200 listings in Washington County, accounting for
25% of the supply of homes for‐sale in the county. An estimated 31% of Woodbury’s list‐
ings are owned multifamily homes; primarily townhomes.
The Northeast and Southeast Submarkets are the only two submarkets that do not have any
owned multifamily homes for‐sale as of January 2017. Both of these submarkets have me‐
dian single‐family values of $625,000 and $729,000, respectively.
Condominiums and cooperatives account for less than 2% of the active homes for‐sale in
Washington County. Half of this product is listed for‐sale in the Stillwater Submarket.
FOR‐SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 125
The number of listings for each housing type is higher in the West Submarket than the East
Submarket. The average list price however, is higher for each product type in the East
Submarket.
The median list price for single‐family homes in Washington County was $473,350 and for
owned multifamily homes was $269,917.
Submarket Single‐Family Townhome/Twinhome Condo/Coop Total
Northeast 32 ‐‐ ‐‐ 32
Stillwater Area 109 8 6 123
Southeast 44 ‐‐ ‐‐ 44
Forest Lake 67 10 2 79
Hugo 36 19 ‐‐ 55
Mahtomedi/Grant Area 58 2 ‐‐ 60
Oakdale Area 25 19 3 47
Lake Elmo 58 10 ‐‐ 68
Woodbury 138 62 1 201
Cottage Grove Area 86 8 ‐‐ 94
Total 653 138 12 803
East 185 8 6 199
West 512 130 6 648
Source: RMLS, Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
TABLE FS‐7
ACTIVE LISTINGS BY TYPE & SUBMARKET
January 2017
Product Type
FOR‐SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 126
One‐story single‐family homes account for 19% of Washington County’s total listings.
However, the average list price varies from $451,175 in the West Submarket to $684,657 in
the East Submarket.
Among the active single‐family homes for‐sale, split‐levels (i.e. two‐level split or bi‐level)
have the lowest price per square foot (PSF). The West and East Submarkets average $137
to $168 PSF.
Condominium pricing varies considerably between the East and West Submarkets. The East
Submarket has an average list price nearly three times that of the West Submarket
($515,600 vs. $171,889). This is attributed to luxury condominium product in Stillwater that
has an average list price of $344 PSF.
Townhomes comprise nearly 17% of the active inventory however, most of these units are
located in the West Submarket. Townhomes have the second lowest list price per square
foot among all housing types; averaging $146 PSF in the West Submarket and $139 in the
East Submarket. Townhomes are significantly larger in square footage than condominiums;
averaging 1,997 square feet in the West Submarket and 1,833 square feet in the East Sub‐
market.
Excluding the Other category, two‐story plus listings (two‐story, modified two‐story, and
more than two‐story) have the highest average list prices in both larger submarkets in
Washington County ($549,990 West Submarket vs. $732,766 East Submarket).
FOR‐SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 127
Avg. List Avg. Size Avg. List Price Avg. Avg. Avg. Age
Property Type Listings Pct. Price (Sq. Ft.) Per Sq. Ft. Bedrooms Bathrooms of Home
One story 54 29.2% $684,657 3,484 $197 3.5 2.1 1988
1.5‐story 11 5.9% $419,950 3,339 $126 3.5 2.7 1937
2‐story 102 55.1% $670,818 3,860 $174 4.3 3.9 1992
Modifed 2‐story 2 1.1% $487,500 4,782 $102 4.5 3.5 1933
More than 2‐stories 5 2.7% $1,068,600 4,592 $233 4.2 4.4 1961
Split entry/Bi‐level 5 2.7% $343,140 2,043 $168 3.6 1.8 1976
3‐level split 1 0.5% $425,000 3,428 $124 5.0 2.0 1975
4 or more split‐level 4 2.2% $394,425 2,670 $148 3.5 2.3 1970
Other 1 0.5% $625,000 1,892 $330 3.0 2.0 1976
Total/Avg. 185 100.0% $661,169 3,556 $186 3.9 3.5 1987
Detached 00.0%‐‐‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐‐‐‐‐
Quad/4 Corners 00.0%‐‐‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐‐‐‐‐
Twin Home 2 25.0% $237,400 1,989 $119 2.5 2.5 1997
Side‐by‐Side 6 75.0% $291,320 2,023 $144 2.5 2.8 1995
Total/Avg. 8 100.0% $277,840 1,997 $139 2.5 2.8 1995
Converted Mansion 0 0.0% ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Manor/Village 0 0.0% ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Low‐rise (less than 3 stories) 1 16.7% $174,900 1,150 $152 2.0 2.0 1989
Hi‐rise (4 or more stories) 5 83.3% $583,740 1,567 $373 1.6 1.8 2006
Total/Avg. 6 100.0% $515,600 1,498 $344 1.7 1.8 2003
East Total/Avg. 199 $645,758 3,485 $185 3.9 3.4 1987
One story 101 21.7% $451,175 2,586 $174 3.3 3.6 1986
1.5‐story 14 3.0% $512,006 2,745 $187 3.4 2.8 1964
2‐story 270 58.1% $515,807 3,348 $154 4.3 3.7 2001
Modifed 2‐story 12 2.6% $449,642 3,027 $149 3.8 3.6 1995
More than 2‐stories 2 0.4% $1,914,950 4,935 $388 4.5 5.5 2002
Split entry/Bi‐level 39 8.4% $278,146 2,027 $137 3.9 2.2 1987
3‐level split 13 2.8% $273,994 1,882 $146 3.2 2.2 1994
4 or more split‐level 11 2.4% $389,900 2,528 $154 3.6 2.5 1982
Other 3 0.6% $341,500 2,112 $162 3.7 2.3 1946
Total/Avg. 465 100.0% $475,168 2,983 $159.29 4.0 3.2 1994
Detached 21 16.2% $456,869 2,454 $186 2.7 2.7 2014
Quad/4 Corners 12 9.2% $253,230 1,664 $152 2.5 2.5 2004
Twin Home 9 6.9% $308,383 1,886 $164 2.4 2.2 2005
Side‐by‐Side 88 67.7% $219,963 1,703 $129 2.5 2.4 2002
Total/Avg. 130 100.0% $267,425 1,833 $146 2.5 2.5 2004
Converted Mansion 0 0.0% ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Manor/Village 4 44.4% $123,500 1,264 $98 2.0 2.0 1979
Low‐rise (less than 3 stories) 5 55.6% $210,800 1,456 $145 2.0 2.0 1991
Hi‐rise (4 or more stories) 0 0.0% ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Total/Avg. 9 100.0% $171,889 1,371 $125 2.0 2.0 1985
West Total/Avg. 604 $425,936 2,712 $157 3.6 3.0 1996
Source: Regional Multiple Listing Service of MN; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
EAST VS. WEST SUBMARKETS
EAST SUBMARKET
WEST SUBMARKET
Single‐Family
Townhomes/Twinhomes
Condominiums/Cooperatives
TABLE FS‐8
ACTIVE LISTINGS BY HOUSING TYPE
Janaury 2017
Single‐Family
Townhomes/Twinhomes
Condominiums/Cooperatives
FOR‐SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 128
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Condo
Townhomes
3‐level split+
2‐level split
2 story+
1.5‐story
One story
Other
ListingsHousing TypeActive Listings by Type ‐January 2017
West East
$0 $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000 $600,000 $700,000 $800,000
Condo
Townhomes
3‐level split+
2‐level split
2 story+
1.5‐story
One story
Other
List PriceHousing TypeAverage List Price by Type ‐Janaury 2017
West East
FOR‐SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 129
Lender‐Mediated Properties
Tables FS‐9 and FS‐10 identify lender‐mediated real estate sales activity in Washington County
and the Twin Cities Metro Area as listed on the Regional Multiple Listing Service of Minnesota
(RMLS). Lender‐mediated transactions (foreclosures and short sales) are different from tradi‐
tional sales because a third party (often the lender) is involved in the transaction; either acting
as the seller in the case of foreclosures, or as an intermediary with approval powers in the case
of a short sale.
Foreclosures are properties in which the financial institutions or lender has taken possession of
the home from the owner due to non‐payment of mortgage obligations/default by the borrow‐
er. In a short sale, the lender(s) and the home owner work together in an attempt to sell the
home prior to foreclosure. Because the net proceeds from the sale are usually insufficient to
cover the sellers’ mortgage obligations, the difference is forgiven by the lender, or other
arrangements are made with the lender to settle the remainder of the debt. In either circum‐
stance, lenders want to move the debt off their books and will therefore discount the asking
price.
Lender‐mediated property information is an important metric when reviewing the health of
real estate markets. After the real estate bust and ensuing Great Recession, the number of
lender‐mediated home sales increased substantially as an overall share of the for‐sale inventory
(7% of all Metro Area closed sales in 2016 were lender‐mediated, a significant decrease from
25.5% in 2013 and 50% in 2011). The higher share of lender‐mediated homes resulted in a
significant decrease in price on aggregate sales price figures, giving the impression that the
FOR‐SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 130
entire housing market was losing considerable value. However, real estate sales data showed
stark differences between traditional and lender‐mediated transactions.
Table FS‐9 illustrates lender‐mediated transaction home sales for Washington County com‐
pared the Twin Cities Metro Area for homes that sold from 2014 through 2016 via foreclosure
or short sale. Key points from the table follow.
The percentage of lender‐mediated sales in Washington County, as well as every other
Metro Area county, has continued to decrease over the past few years. Over 93% of Wash‐
ington County resales were traditional sales in 2016, compared to 86% in 2014.
Metro Area lender‐mediated sales averaged 50% of all resales from 2009 through 2011.
Metro Area lender‐mediated sales decreased to 40% of all sales in 2012. Throughout the
Metro Area and in Washington County, distressed sales continue to decrease and are now
less than 10% of overall sales.
2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016
Median Sales Price
Washington County $250,000 $252,540 $269,000 $160,000 $153,213 $168,000 $163,500 $172,000 $198,700
Anoka County $200,000 $211,000 $224,900 $144,300 $147,345 $155,750 $155,183 $157,800 $162,750
Carver County $274,900 $279,900 $282,875 $165,000 $172,032 $191,699 $151,900 $175,000 $200,000
Dakota County $228,000 $235,050 $245,900 $145,202 $142,000 $160,092 $165,000 $164,000 $175,000
Hennepin County $236,800 $244,900 $253,000 $107,000 $105,000 $125,000 $147,000 $129,410 $135,000
Ramsey County $190,000 $198,000 $207,000 $107,500 $108,000 $120,000 $130,000 $137,750 $146,000
Scott County $252,000 $250,000 $260,000 $165,572 $171,000 $177,500 $167,000 $194,000 $213,402
Twin Cities Region $221,000 $229,000 $239,000 $137,625 $140,000 $148,795 $153,800 $160,000 $169,700
Transactions
Washington County 3,249 3,974 4,501 415 320 266 123 95 69
Anoka County 3,853 4,790 5,543 816 625 473 261 198 119
Carver County 1,437 1,840 1,972 142 89 77 45 36 25
Dakota County 5,038 6,356 7,052 744 591 385 209 155 115
Hennepin County 15,591 18,110 19,542 1,976 1,343 1,048 566 447 275
Ramsey County 5,078 6,265 6,749 856 677 551 211 160 118
Scott County 1,917 2,341 2,543 274 202 137 96 51 47
Twin Cities Region 41,446 50,491 55,585 6,340 4,603 3,451 1,796 1,336 922
Percent of Transactions
Washington County 85.8% 90.5% 93.1% 11.0% 7.3% 5.5% 3.2% 2.2% 1.4%
Anoka County 78.2% 85.3% 90.4% 16.6% 11.1% 7.7% 5.3% 3.5% 1.9%
Carver County 88.5% 93.6% 95.1%8.7% 4.5% 3.7% 2.8% 1.8% 1.2%
Dakota County 84.1% 89.5% 93.4% 12.4% 8.3% 5.1% 3.5% 2.2% 1.5%
Hennepin County 86.0% 91.0% 93.7% 10.9% 6.7% 5.0% 3.1% 2.2% 1.3%
Ramsey County 82.6% 88.2% 91.0% 13.9% 9.5% 7.4% 3.4% 2.3% 1.6%
Scott County 83.8% 90.2% 93.3% 12.0% 7.8% 5.0% 4.2% 2.0% 1.7%
Twin Cities Region 83.6% 89.5% 92.7% 12.8% 8.2% 5.8% 3.6% 2.4% 1.5%
Sources: NorthstarMLS, Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
TABLE FS‐9
LENDER‐MEDIATED REAL ESTATE ACTIVITY
WASHINGTON COUNTY COMPARISON
2014 to 2016
Traditional Foreclosures Short Sales
FOR‐SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 131
Lender‐mediated sale prices in Washington County have been discounted by 38% compared
to traditional sales in 2016.
Washington County Lender‐Mediated Activity
Table FS‐10 shows median sales price for Washington County submarkets by transaction type
(i.e. traditional, foreclosures, and short sales) for sales activity from 2014 through 2016 that
were listed on the Regional Multiple Listing Service of Minnesota.
Across the Metro Area, properties under foreclosure sold for a discount of about 36%
compared to traditional sales in 2016. In Washington County, short sales posted resale val‐
ues 29% lower than traditional sales. Foreclosures had an overall sales price discount of
38% as of 2016.
The number of lender‐mediated resales in Washington County has been decreasing each
year since the previous housing needs update in 2014. From 2014 through 2016, 91% of
resales in Washington County were traditional sales; compared to 60% in 2012.
FOR‐SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 132
Lender‐mediated sales in the West Submarket accounted for 83% of all lender‐mediated
resales in Washington County in 2016. Most of the transactions in the East Submarket were
located in the Stillwater Area (54%) as the Northeast and Southeast Submarkets had rela‐
tively few lender‐mediated transactions.
Communities with the highest number of lender‐mediated resales in 2016 include: Wood‐
bury (73), Cottage Grove (70), Forest Lake (33), Hugo (28), and Stillwater (26).
FOR‐SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 133
Submarket 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016
East (Median Sales Price)
Northeast
Marine on St. Croix $357,500 $330,000 $376,825 $156,450 $195,000 $312,000 $360,000 $320,000 $0
May township $285,000 $402,500 $485,250 $361,250 $519,750 $244,000 $0 $0$0
Scandia $299,750 $299,950 $360,000 $226,500 $138,985 $220,025 $207,500 $303,000 $0
Stillwater Area
Bayport $240,000 $207,000 $242,500 $165,500 $175,100 $175,100 $137,000 $380,000 $154,900
Oak Park Heights $195,000 $205,999 $226,500 $134,000 $103,352 $153,000 $153,800 $153,800 $118,000
Stillwater $276,900 $265,000 $295,000 $144,098 $145,000 $175,000 $230,000 $184,000 $181,500
Baytown township $590,000 $747,715 $712,500 $542,860 $0 $0 $0 $615,000 $0
Stillwater township $415,000 $447,250 $459,900 $0 $0 $493,500 $0 $0 $475,000
Southeast
Afton $437,500 $435,000 $455,000 $287,500 $450,000 $267,000 $0 $354,350 $0
Lake St. Croix Beach $204,900 $192,000 $220,900 $109,056 $125,150 $299,900 $0 $0 $163,900
Lakeland $231,450 $252,000 $255,000 $142,900 $169,050 $134,500 $185,000 $145,000 $0
Lakeland Shores $1,500,000 $247,423 $278,500 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
St. Mary's Point $347,400 $300,000 $248,525 $260,000 $152,700 $35,000 $0 $0 $0
West Lakeland township $482,500 $445,250 $451,000 $270,000 $209,000 $307,313 $0 $0 $442,500
Denmark township $442,500 $424,478 $416,000 $352,000 $0 $161,000 $460,000 $0 $0
Total (Median) $347,400 $300,000 $360,000 $226,500 $169,050 $220,025 $207,500 $311,500 $172,700
West (Median Sales Price)
Cottage Grove Area
Cottage Grove $216,500 $228,000 $245,750 $166,500 $156,870 $162,750 $155,000 $169,900 $230,200
Newport $178,500 $164,500 $192,500 $129,250 $125,000 $108,435 $191,375 $152,000 $69,900
St. Paul Park $169,245 $175,497 $193,500 $140,000 $116,500 $137,600 $140,000 $146,500 $147,300
Grey Cloud Island township $268,000 $267,500 $283,450 $50,100 $0 $0 $0 $0 $206,000
Forest Lake $236,400 $234,900 $239,950 $152,250 $149,500 $160,675 $168,500 $158,500 $205,000
Hugo $218,950 $220,000 $236,000 $145,000 $151,000 $214,000 $145,000 $232,000 $160,000
Lake Elmo $430,000 $401,500 $406,102 $207,500 $323,400 $504,586 $0 $154,500 $0
Mahtomedi/Grant Area
Birchwood Village $340,000 $260,000 $289,000 $231,400 $0 $243,541 $437,750 $0 $0
Dellwood $765,000 $645,000 $532,000 $576,880 $425,000 $252,700 $0 $0 $563,000
Grant $471,400 $399,900 $404,650 $317,000 $361,000 $677,500 $540,000 $500,000 $0
Mahtomedi $305,000 $337,000 $314,410 $160,000 $147,345 $163,250 $222,000 $0 $126,500
Pine Springs $400,000 $395,000 $451,500 $267,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Willernie $160,000 $156,500 $165,000 $0 $65,000 $0 $0 $0 $0
Woodbury $299,450 $295,000 $299,000 $202,000 $200,000 $251,000 $175,000 $208,000 $199,350
Total (Median) $340,000 $337,000 $314,410 $249,200 $151,000 $214,000 $171,750 $164,200 $199,350
TABLE FS‐10
LENDER‐MEDIATED REAL ESTATE ACTIVITY
WASHINGTON COUNTY COMPARISON‐EAST AND WEST SUBMARKETS
2014 to 2016
Traditional Foreclosures Short Sales
CONTINUED
FOR‐SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 134
Submarket 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016
East (Total Transactions) 582 698 710 63 45 35 12 17 13
Northeast
Marine on St. Croix 91720 412 010
May township 81716 511 000
Scandia 424433 632 210
Stillwater Area
Bayport 383532 110 211
Oak Park Heights 37 57 55 5 4 1 1 0 1
Stillwater 303 371 376 27 25 19 5 11 7
Baytown township 34 16 23 2 0 0 0 1 0
Stillwater township 10 16 19 0 0 1 0 0 1
Southeast
Afton 283341 631 010
Lake St. Croix Beach 12 19 14 4 1 1 0 0 1
Lakeland 20 30 27 1 3 1 1 1 0
Lakeland Shores 113 000 000
St. Mary's Point 154 021 000
West Lakeland township 31 26 40 1 1 4 0 0 2
Denmark township 8117 101 100
West (Total Transactions) 2,387 2,886 3,298 275 241 184 95 64 50
Cottage Grove Area
Cottage Grove 445 539 610 73 80 54 19 21 16
Newport 322739 1011 2 2 4 1
St. Paul Park 586577 111413 5 1 2
Grey Cloud Island township 162 100 001
Forest Lake 253 363 366 39 37 24 12 8 9
Hugo 231 293 356 35 27 25 13 6 3
Lake Elmo 90 84 188 5 2 2 0 1 0
Mahtomedi/Grant Area
Birchwood Village 11 11 7 1 0 2 1 0 0
Dellwood 191115 021 001
Grant 263739 312 110
Mahtomedi 89 132 116 3 7 2 3 0 1
Pine Springs 374 100 000
Willernie 6 14 11 0 1 0 0 0 0
Woodbury 1,123 1,297 1,468 93 59 57 39 22 16
Sources: Northstar MLS, Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
TABLE FS‐10
LENDER‐MEDIATED REAL ESTATE ACTIVITY
WASHINGTON COUNTY COMPARISON‐EAST AND WEST SUBMARKETS
2014 to 2016
(continued)
Traditional Foreclosures Short Sales
FOR‐SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 135
New Construction Housing Activity
Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC obtained lot inventory and subdivision data from
Metrostudy, a homebuilding consulting company that maintains a database of all subdivision
activity in the greater Metro Area. Tables FS‐11 to FS‐20 provide a variety of information on the
new construction market in Washington County. The following terms are used in the lot
inventory tables:
Annual Starts and Closings: The sum of activity for the most recent four quarters.
Closing: Defined as when a “move in” has occurred and the home is occupied.
Future Lots Inventory: Future lots are recorded after a preliminary plat or site plan has
been submitted for consideration by the city.
Lot Front: Range of all lot sizes within the subdivision; based on the lot front foot width
Occupied: A buyer has taken possession of the home that was previously under con‐
struction or a model home.
Price: Range of all base home price offered within the subdivision
Starts: The housing slab or foundation has been poured.
Total Lots: A summation of all lots platted in a subdivision, including those closed, un‐
der construction, and vacant.
Vacant Developed lot (VDL): The subdivision is considered developed after subdivision
streets are paved and vehicles can physically drive in front of the lot.
Historic Construction Starts/Closings
From 2012 through 2016, the number of new construction homes closed annually increased
overall in Washington County by 28%.
The vast majority of new construction home closings occurred in the West Submarket. Over
the timeframe shown above, the West Submarket accounted for an average of 87% of all
new home closings in 2012 and 91% in 2016.
Woodbury had a 55% share of all new construction closings in Washington County in 2012
decreasing to 27% in 2016 as the housing market gained steam in other areas of the county.
Cottage Grove had the highest share of closings in 2016 at 30% followed by Woodbury
FOR‐SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 136
(27%) and Lake Elmo (21%). These three communities accounted for 78% of all new con‐
struction closings over the past year. Another 10% occurred in Hugo.
The charts below visually display the percent share of home closings in Washington County
in 2016.
FOR‐SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 137
Pct. Change Market Share
2012 2016 2012‐2016 2016
Annual Closings (1st‐4th Quarter)
East Submarket
Northeast 0 5 ‐‐ 0.9%
Stillwater Area 63 41 ‐34.9% 7.6%
Southeast 6 18 200.0% 3.4%
East Total 69 64 ‐7.2% 11.9%
West Submarket
Forest Lake 19 19 0.0% 3.5%
Hugo 56 37 ‐33.9% 6.9%
Matomedi/Grant Area 17 0 ‐100.0% 0.0%
Oakdale Area 0 0 ‐‐ 0.0%
Lake Elmo 25 150 500.0% 27.9%
Woodbury 301 189 ‐37.2% 35.2%
Cottage Grove Area 62 78 25.8% 14.5%
West Total 480 473 ‐1.5% 88.1%
Washington County Total 549 537 ‐2.2% 100.0%
Vacant Developed Lots (4th Quarter)
East Submarket
Northeast 0 62 ‐‐ 4.8%
Stillwater Area 110 216 96.4% 16.7%
Southeast 55 34 ‐38.2% 2.6%
East Total 165 312 89.1% 24.1%
West Submarket
Forest Lake 231 164 ‐29.0% 12.7%
Hugo 363 137 ‐62.3% 10.6%
Matomedi/Grant Area 7 6 ‐14.3% 0.5%
Oakdale Area 0 0 ‐‐ 0.0%
Lake Elmo 84 234 178.6% 18.1%
Woodbury 514 302 ‐41.2% 23.3%
Cottage Grove Area 91 139 52.7% 10.7%
West Total 1,290 982 ‐23.9% 75.9%
Washington County Total 1,455 1,294 ‐11.1% 100.0%
Sources: Metrostudy; Maxfield Research and Consulting, LLC
Annual Statistics
Definitions: "closing" defined as housing unit becoming occupied; "vacant
developed lot" defined as completion of subdivision streets and ability to
TABLE FS‐11
NEW CONSTRUCTION HOUSING ACTIVITY STATISTICS
WASHINGTON COUNTY
2012 & 2016
FOR‐SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 138
Historic Vacant Developed Lots
From 2012 through 2016, the number of vacant developed lots decreased in the West
Submarket by 12%, but increased in the East submarket, by 89%.
Similar to home closings, Woodbury and Lake Elmo have the highest numbers of vacant
developed lots in the county. Combined, these two communities accounted for 53% of the
county’s total in 2016. The market continues to rebound and the number of vacant devel‐
oped lots has decreased from 2012 in many submarkets. In addition, areas with limited va‐
cant developed lots previously have experienced an increase in the platting of new lots from
2012.
Vacant developed lot inventories nearly doubled in the Stillwater submarket and nearly
tripled in Lake Elmo.
165
312
1,290
982
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2012 2016Vacant Developed LotsYear
Vacant Developed Lots ‐Washington County, 4thQ 2016
East West
Lot Supply
Among active subdivisions, there are 3,353 single‐family and 987 multifamily homes in the
new home inventory (i.e. occupied units, under construction, model units and vacant
homes) in Washington County as of 4th Quarter 2016. An estimated 86% of this inventory is
in the West Submarket and 77% of the home inventory in the county is for single‐family
homes.
FOR‐SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 139
The Stillwater Area contains 63% of the vacant home inventory and vacant lots in the East
Submarket. Woodbury, Lake Elmo and Cottage Grove account for 74% of the West Sub‐
market’s home inventory and lot supply.
Although vacant lot inventory is shown as decreasing 11% between 2012 and 2016, several
submarkets experienced increases in vacant developed lots during this period, most notably
Stillwater Area, Lake Elmo and Cottage Grove. Table FS‐12 shows a summary of actively
marketing subdivisions as of 4th Quarter 2016. There were 3,152 future lots in Washington
County (4th Quarter 2016) that have received preliminary or final approvals, but have not
yet become active.
Woodbury has the highest supply of new construction owned multifamily lots in Washing‐
ton County (39% of home inventory) and contains 254 vacant developed lots and future
lots. Hugo follows closely with 35% of the owned multifamily supply and contains 118 fu‐
ture lots. Four submarkets have no owned multifamily lot supply (Northeast, Stillwater Ar‐
ea, Southeast and Mahtomedi/Grant Area). Stillwater city however, has owned detached
villa product that is currently in the planning stages for approval. The portion of the Inspira‐
tion subdivision originally replatted for 75 units of owned multifamily is now being consid‐
ered for a senior cooperative and has been removed from the future lot totals.
Home New Future Total Home New Future Total
Submarket Inventory1 Inventory2 VDLs Lots3 Lots Inventory1 Inventory2 VDLs Lots3 Lots
East Submarket
Northeast 76 9 62 0 138 0 0 0 0 0
Stillwater Area 323 47 216 121 660 0 0 0 0 0
Southeast 198 16 34 32 264 0 0 0 0 0
East Total 597 72 312 153 1,062 0 0 0 0 0
West Submarket
Forest Lake 238 21 164 168 570 98 7 25 0 123
Hugo 352 54 137 20 509 403 13 118 0 521
Matomedi/Grant Area 41 2 6 0 47 0 0 0 0 0
Oakdale Area 0 0 0 0 0 12 8 4 0 16
Lake Elmo 395 196 234 1,325 1,954 36 51 48 0 84
Woodbury 1,517 235 302 635 2,454 337 74 76 178 591
Cottage Grove Area 213 84 139 675 1,111 101 0 25 38 164
West Total 2,756 592 982 2,823 6,645 987 153 296 216 1,499
Total 3,353 664 1,294 2,976 7,707 987 153 296 216 1,499
1 Includes occupied units plus model units, finished vacant homes, and homes under construction
2 Includes model units (i.e. spec homes), finished vacant homes, and homes under construction
Sources: Metrostudy; Maxfield Research and Consulting, LLC
3Includes only future lots in actively market subdivisions. Additional future lots are currently identified in new subdivisions in the pipeline.
Single‐Family Multifamily
TABLE FS‐12
SUMMARY OF ACTIVELY MARKETING SUBDIVISIONS
WASHINGTON COUNTY
4th Quarter 2016
In Washington County overall, there were 1,294 vacant developed single‐family lots. The
following submarkets had the highest single‐family vacant developed lot inventories:
FOR‐SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 140
o Woodbury – 302 lots
o Lake Elmo – 234 lots
o Stillwater Area – 216 lots
o Forest Lake – 164 lots
o Cottage Grove – 139 lots
o Hugo – 137 lots
72
312
153
592
982
2,823
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
New Inventory VDLs Future LotsLots
Lot Status
Single‐family Lot Inventory ‐ 4Q 2016
East West
000
153
296
216
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
New Inventory VDLs Future LotsLots
Lot Status
Multifamily Lot Inventory ‐ 4Q 2016
East West
FOR‐SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 141
138
660
264
570
509
47
0
1,954
2,454
1,111
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000
Northeast
Stillwater Area
Southeast
Forest Lake
Hugo
Matomedi/Grant Area
Oakdale Area
Lake Elmo
Woodbury
Cottage Grove Area
Total LotsSubmarketSingle‐family Lot Inventory by Submarket: 4Q 2016
0
0
0
123
521
0
16
84
591
164
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Northeast
Stillwater Area
Southeast
Forest Lake
Hugo
Matomedi/Grant Area
Oakdale Area
Lake Elmo
Woodbury
Cottage Grove Area
Total LotsSubmarketMultifamily Lot Inventory by Submarket: 4Q 2016
FOR‐SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 142
For owned multifamily housing, a total of 296 vacant developed lots were identified
with the largest inventories located in the following communities:
o Hugo – 118 lots
o Woodbury – 76 lots
o Lake Elmo – 48 lots
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
LotsSubmarket
Single‐family Lot Supply by Submarket: 4Q 2016
SF Future lots SF VDL
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
LotsSubmarket
Multifamily Lot Supply by Submarket: 4Q 2016
MF Future lots MF VDL
FOR‐SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 143
Actively Marketing Subdivisions
Over the past three years, 40% of the actively marketing single‐family subdivisions were
platted. From 2000 through 2010, 52% of actively marketing subdivisions were platted and
79% of those were platted from 2004 through 2007. Due to the housing recession, a small
percentage of lots remain in some of these earlier single‐family subdivisions. Some subdivi‐
sions platted were never built and those plats expired; those subdivisions were removed
from future inventory.
Roughly 45% of the subdivisions had new site activity in 2016 compared to less than 60% in
2013. However, more than 18 new subdivisions have begun marketing since 2013.
Among all of the actively marketing single‐family subdivisions, 73% of the developed lots
have been built on.
Owned multifamily housing was severely affected by the recession. Half of the 18 actively
marketing owned multifamily subdivisions were platted prior to 2008. With the housing
market increasing in activity, seven subdivisions have been platted since 2013.
Since 2013, 26% of the actively marketing owned multifamily lots were platted compared to
56% of total lots platted from 2000 through 2005. Therefore, a large number of lots re‐
mained unabsorbed due to the recession as of 4th Quarter 2016. We anticipate however,
that sales activity of multifamily owned housing will accelerate as single‐family home prices
move higher.
Sixty‐one percent of subdivisions had new site activity in 2016 which was nearly the same as
in 2013. Among all of the actively marketing multifamily subdivisions, 67% of the developed
lots have an existing home on the lot.
The chart following Table FS‐14 highlights the average prices for new single‐family and
owned multifamily homes by community in Washington County. Similar to the existing re‐
sale data, single‐family and owned multifamily homes are priced higher in the East Submar‐
kets versus the West Submarkets. At this time, the Ponds at Heifort Hills is currently mar‐
keting detached villa lots in Stillwater. The first addition has 70 lots and a second addition
will provide another 50 lots.
The slowdown of the housing market between 2008 and 2010 pushed housing and lot costs
down leading to a substantial decrease in new construction. Pricing bottomed out in 2012
and builders have been steadily increasing pricing as the new construction market has re‐
surged and as the number of resale homes on the market has decreased to well below mar‐
ket equilibrium in many submarkets (less than six months of supply and in many submar‐
kets, less than three months of supply).
FOR‐SALE MARKET ANALYSIS MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 144 Vacant Product Lot Range Quarterly Currently Developed Lot Future TotalType (Ft.) Min Max Starts Closings Starts Occupied Inventory (VDL) Units (Fut) Units (Tot)Previously Platted/Marketing SubdivisionsNortheast SubmarketArcola Preserve Marine on St. Croix 4Q04 Active 4Q04 Single Family 300' $800 $1,000 3 1 1 9 4 0 15Jackson Meadow Marine on St. Croix 3Q05 Active 3Q05 Single Family 100' $385 $580 0 0 0 34 25 0 59Long Lake Shores Marine on St. Croix 4Q06 Active 4Q06 Single Family200' $619 $1,044 0 0 0 3 7 0 10Tii Gavo Scandia 2Q07 Active 2Q07 Single Family 195' $400 $1,500 4 3 0 5 21028Wild Bush Acres Scandia 1Q07 Active 1Q07 Single Family 140' $335 $375 2103 408Wyldewood Acres/ Scandia 4Q04 Active 4Q04 Single Family 180' $485 $60000 0 22 1 0 23Subtotals9 5 1 76 62 0 143Stillwater Area SubmarketInspiration/ Bayport 4Q05 Active 4Q05 Single Family 80' $300 $700 11 3 5 126 76 33 278Audubon Baytown 3Q06 Active 3Q06 Single Family 95' $500 $900 1 3 0 28 8 0 38Bay Lake Reserve Baytown 4Q04 Active 4Q04 Single Family 175' $550 $90053 0 16 9 0 28Miller Farms Baytown 2Q06 Active 2Q06 Single Family 115' $600 $950 12 9 336 31 13 85Arcola Bluffs on the St. Croix Stillwater Twp. 1Q09 Active 1Q09 Single Family 300' $750 $1,200 0 0 0 3 5 0 8Browns Creek Cove Stillwater 3Q16 Active 3Q16 Single Family 85' $550 $750 0 0 0 0 13 0 13Browns Creek Preserve Stillwater 2Q14 Active 2Q14 Single Family 65' $500 $900 3 3 1 8 4 0 15Liberty West Stillwater 3Q07 Active 3Q07 Single Family 45' $356 $530 0 0010 9 0 19Millbrook/Classic Heartland Stillwater 3Q07 Active 3Q07 Single Family 80' $449 $481 13 17 2 87 7 0 98Ponds at Heifort Hills (DTH) Stillwater 4Q16 Active 4Q16 Single Family 45' $450 $650 0 0 0 0 24 24 48Rutherford Station Stillwater 3Q16 Active 3Q16 Single Family 70' $370$450 2 0 1 0 28 25 55Victory Pass Stillwater Twp. 2Q13 Active 2Q13 Single Family215' $400 $800 0 3 0 9 2 0 11Subtotals47 41 12 323 216 95 696Southeast SubmarketCedar Bluff Homestead Afton 4Q11 Active 4Q11 Single Family 135' $600 $2,200 2 3 0 14 8 0 25Three Sister Springs Afton 2Q08 Active 2Q08 Single Family 350' $900 $1,1001104 207Trading Post Trail Preserve Afton 3Q15 Active 3Q15 Single Family 300' $675 $1,200 2 2 0 2 4 0 7Eagles Watch Denmark 3Q00 Active 3Q00 Single Family 210' $490 $600 0 0 0 461047Fieldcrest Denmark 3Q02 Active 3Q02 Single Family 250' $418 $723 1 2 0 31 2033Homestead Estates in Denmark Denmark 3Q06 Active 3Q06 Single Family215' $399 $750 2 2 0 9 2 2 14St. Croix Estates Denmark 2Q03 Active 2Q03 Single Family 195' $400 $500 1 1 0 23 0 0 24St. Croix Ridge Denmark 4Q05 Active 4Q05 Single Family 250' $875 $1,5002208 109Artisan Lakeland 4Q07 Active 4Q07 Single Family 300' $975 $1,300 2 2 0 10 4016Galway Lakeland 1Q03 Active 1Q03 Single Family 230' $650 $1,800 1 2 0 32 5 039Lora Mere Lakeland 4Q04 Active 4Q04 Single Family 150' $550 $780 2 1 0 19 5025Subtotals16 18 0 198 34 2 246CONTINUEDWASHINGTON COUNTYTABLE FS‐13SUBDIVISION & LOT INVENTORY ‐ DETACHED HOUSING UNITS4th Quarter 2016Subdivision NameInitial Active Qtr.StatusPricing ($1,000)CityAnnual
FOR‐SALE MARKET ANALYSIS MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 145 Vacant Lot Range Quarterly Currently Developed Lot Future Total(Ft.) Min Max Starts Closings Starts Occupied Inventory (VDL) Units (Fut) Units (Tot)Previously Platted/Marketing SubdivisionsForest Lake SubmarketChestnut Creek Forest Lake 4Q16 Active 4Q16 Single Family 65' $325 $850 2 0 2 0 107 111 220Forest Hills Farm Forest Lake 4Q07 Active 4Q07 Single Family 100' $500 $1,000 2 5 1 13 8 28 51Hawthorne Heights/(DTH) Forest Lake 3Q07 Active 3Q07 Single Family 50' $160 $225 1 1 0 24 1 0 25Headwaters/ Forest Lake 3Q07 Active 3Q07 Single Family 80' $340 $400 1411 4 84 28 0 117Ivy Estates Forest Lake 1Q08 Active 1Q08 Single Family 90' $275 $325 0 007 6 013North Shore Estates Forest Lake 3Q15 Active 3Q15 Single Family 600' $600 $900 0 0 0 0 9 0 9Stoney River Preserve Forest Lake 4Q05 Active 4Q05 Single Family 125' $295 $501 0 0 0 3 3 0 6Summerfield/Spring Brook/Landings at Forest Lake 1Q02 Active 1Q02 Single Family 100' $250 $290 0 0 0 103 1 0 104Villas of Forest Lake Forest Lake 2Q14 Active 2Q14 Single Family 81'$275 $500 2 2 2 4 1 0 7Subtotals21 19 9 238 164 139 552Hugo SubmarketClearwater Cove Hugo 4Q15 Active 4Q15 Single Family 65' $345 $433 28 14 314 16 20 89Duck Pass Hugo 2Q04 Active 2004 Single Family 400' $250 $600 0 0 0 21 1 0 22Eagle Shores (DTH) Hugo 4Q05 Active 4Q05 Single Family 150' $775 $1,00000 0 9 2 0 11Fable Hill Villas/(DTH) Hugo 3Q15 Active 3Q15 Single Family 80' $375 $550 5 5 3 6 20 0 26Fable Hill/ Hugo 3Q06 Active 3Q06 Single Family 150' $425 $575 3 1 2 64 20 087Francine Meadows Hugo 2Q90 Active 2Q90 Single Family 75' $200 $400 0 0 0 141015Prairie Village in Hugo Hugo 4Q10 Active 4Q10 Single Family 90' $350 $650 15 16 2 63 11 0 74Sunset Lake Ridge Hugo 2Q98 Active 2Q98 Single Family 300' $300 $500 0 009 1 010St. Sauver's West Hugo 1991 Active 1991 Single Family 400' $150 $250 0 002 4 0 6Sweet Grass Meadows‐2nd Addition Hugo 2Q00 Active 2Q00 Single Family 90' $200 $250 0 0 0 45 1 0 46Victor Gardens East/ Hugo 3Q05 Active 3Q05 Single Family 100' $450 $510 1 0 1 22 11 0 33Victor Gardens North Village Hugo n/a Replat Single Family 70' n/a n/a00 0 5 28 0 33Victor Gardens/ Hugo 4Q01 Active 4Q01 Single Family 80' $350 $500 0 0 0 746080Waters Edge/ Hugo 4Q04 Active 4Q04 Single Family 65' $200 $400 2 1 1 3 10 0 13Woods of Bald Eagle Lake Hugo 4Q07 Active 4Q07 Single Family 175' $340$500 0 0 0 1 5 0 6Subtotals54 37 12 352 137 20 551Mahtomedi SubmarketEastgate Mahtomedi 3Q06 Active 3Q06 Single Family 50' $500 $600 0 0 0 39 1 040Jasmine Hills Grant 3Q15 Active 3Q15 Single Family 500' $650 $1,200 2 0 22507Subtotals20 2 41 6 0 47Lake Elmo SubmarketBoulder Ponds Lake Elmo 3Q15 Active 3Q15 Single Family 65' $350 $600 13717 295198Discover Crossing Lake Elmo 3Q06 Active 3Q06 Single Family 160' $700 $1,400 1 0 0 23 4 0 28Easton Village Lake Elmo 2Q16 Active 2Q16 Single Family 70' $350 $700 26 13 5 13 45 153 224Farms of Lake Elmo Lake Elmo 2Q06 Active 2Q06 Single Family 155' $525$1,000 0 0 0 32 1 0 33Hunters Crossing Lake Elmo 1Q15 Active 1Q15 Single Family 75' $349 $407 31 31 3 39 4 0 51Inwood/ Lake Elmo 1Q16 Active 1Q16 Single Family 50' $310 $415 60 57 0 57 1217 278Park Meadows in Lake Elmo Lake Elmo 2Q06 Active 2Q06 Single Family 250' $850 $1,000 1 0 0 7 0 0 8Savona/Classic & Landmark Lake Elmo 3Q14 Active 3Q14 Single Family 75' $391 $532 20 27 6 60 19 198 289St. Croix Sanctuary Lake Elmo 2Q06 Active 2Q06 Single Family 150' $560 $890 2 3 1 57 4 0 62Tapestry at Charlottes Grove Lake Elmo 1Q05 Active 1Q05 Single Family 125' $450 $650 1 1 0 63 1 0 65Village Preserve/ Lake Elmo 1Q16 Active 1Q16 Single Family 75' $400 $800 20 2 4 2 71 0 91Whistling Valley Lake Elmo 3Q04 Active 3Q04 Single Family 200' $950 $2,000 2 1 0 27 14 0 43Wildflower at Lake Elmo/ Lake Elmo 1Q16 Active 1Q16 Single Family 85' $400 $800 9 4 3 4 29 40 78Wildflower at Lake Elmo/(DTH) Lake Elmo 1Q16 Active 1Q16 Single Family 60' $230 $650 10 4 1 4 12 45 67Subtotals196 150 24 395 234 704 1,415TABLE FS‐13SUBDIVISION & LOT INVENTORY ‐ DETACHED HOUSING UNITSWASHINGTON COUNTY4th Quarter 2016Subdivision Name CityInitial Active Qtr.Status Product TypePricing ($1,000) AnnualCONTINUED
FOR‐SALE MARKET ANALYSIS MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 146 Vacant Lot Range Quarterly Currently Developed Lot Future Total(Ft.) Min Max Starts Closings Starts Occupied Inventory (VDL) Units (Fut) Units (Tot)Previously Platted/Marketing SubdivisionsWoodbury SubmarketAshton Ridge Classic & Landmark Woodbury 1Q14 Active 1Q14 Single Family 95' $407 $572 39 43 7 95 17 0 127Autumn Ridge in Woodbury Woodbury 4Q13 Active 4Q13 Single Family 200' $900 $1,500 4 4 0 11 6 0 20Bailey Lake Woodbury 2Q13 Active 2Q13 Single Family 70' $368$448 26 34 6 88 6 83 182Dale Bluffs Woodbury 4Q15 Active 4Q15 Single Family 72' $300$500 3 2 1 2 3 0 6Dancing Waters/Conifer Bay Woodbury 4Q12 Active 4Q12 Single Family 65' $366 $436 15 17 2 48 0 0 53Dancing Waters/High Point/Villas (DTH) Woodbury 1Q05 Active 1Q05 Single Family 65' $425 $675 5 6 1 50 2 0 55Dancing Waters/Whistler Point Woodbury 3Q02 Active 3Q02 Single Family 80' $350 $500 1 0 1 77 5 0 83East Meadow Estates Woodbury 4Q13 Active 4Q13 Single Family 60' $380 $550 9 8 0 12 4 0 21Harvest/View Woodbury 4Q16 Active 4Q16 Single Family 70' $370$450 1 0 1 0 0 55 56Highland Knoll/(DTH) Woodbury 3Q13 Active 3Q13 Single Family 50' $300$400 2 1 0 2 3 0 7Oak View Woodbury 4Q05 Active 4Q05 Single Family 80' $360$440 9 2 3 2 5 0 14Pioneer Point Villas (DTH) Woodbury 4Q14 Active 4Q14 Single Family 55' $320 $400 9 6 4 17 10 0 34Princeton Hills Woodbury 3Q14 Active 3Q14 Single Family 80' $500$900 1 2 1 5 3 0 9Southridge/Blue Point Woodbury 3Q14 Active 3Q14 Single Family 65' $354 $406 21 20 7 48 10 53 116Southridge/Summerlin Woodbury 1Q14 Active 1Q14 Single Family 80' $354$406 41 29 11 53 28 0 100Stonemill Farms/ Woodbury 1Q05 Active 1Q05 Single Family 85' $383$650 1 3 0 991 2 0 993Summerlin Woodbury 4Q15 Active 4Q15 Single Family 60' $300$600 26 9 3 9 110 108 244Twenty One Oaks/ Woodbury 2Q16 Active 2Q16 Single Family 80' $440 $1,000 18 1 6 1 56 30 104Twenty One Oaks/ (DTH) Woodbury 2Q16 Active 2Q16 Single Family 50' $550 $700 3 0 1 0 20 0 23Woodhaven in Woodbury Woodbury 1Q15 Active 1Q15 Single Family 95' $775 $1,000 1 2 0 6 12 0 21Subtotals235 189 55 1,517 302 329 2,268Cottage Grove SubmarketCayden Glen Cottage Grove 4Q14 Active 4Q14 Single Family 75' $371 $45322 23 4 41 40 0 92Eastridge Woods Cottage Grove 4Q13 Active 4Q13 Single Family 70' $352$442 46 43 11 99 29 0 144Everwood Cottage Grove 4Q07 Active 4Q07 Single Family 85' $450 $900 3 3 123 3 0 29Highland Hills/Preserve at Cottage Grove 1Q05 Active 1Q05 Single Family 90' $600 $900 0 0 0 6 0 0 6Kingston Grove Cottage Grove 4Q15 Active 4Q15 Single Family 50' $390 $500 1 2 0 2 10 0 12Michaels Pointe, the Waters at Cottage Grove 3Q11 Active 3Q11 Single Family 85' $400 $700 0 0 0 10 2 0 12Oak Cove Cottage Grove 1Q15 Active 1Q15 Single Family 85' $420 $465 5 5 010 0 0 12Stewart Addition Cottage Grove 2Q16 Active 2Q16 Single Family 250' $600 $800 1 1 0 1 4 0 5Summers Landing Cottage Grove 3Q16 Active 3Q16 Single Family 75' $300$500 6 1 3 3 47 328 383Burlington View St. Paul Park 4Q04 Active 4Q04 Single Family 75' $188$249 0 0 0 29 1 0 30Parkwood of St. Paul Park St. Paul Park 1Q07 Active 1Q07 Single Family 90' $245 $254 0 0 0 12 3 0 15Subtotals84 78 19 236 139 328 740Marketing SubdivisionsEast Submarket72 64 13 597 312 97 1,085West Submarket407 473 96 2,389 982 1,520 4,249Washington County479 537 109 2,986 1,294 1,617 5,334Pricing ($1,000)CONTINUEDTABLE FS‐13SUBDIVISION & LOT INVENTORY ‐ DETACHED HOUSING UNITSWASHINGTON COUNTY4th Quarter 2016Subdivision Name CityInitial Active Qtr.Status Product TypeAnnual
FOR‐SALE MARKET ANALYSIS MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 147 Vacant Lot Range Quarterly Currently Developed Lot Future Total(Ft.) Min Max Starts Closings Starts Occupied Inventory (VDL) Units (Fut) Units (Tot)Future SubdivisionsStillwater Area SubmarketPalmer Station Oak Park Heights 0 Future Single Family 75' $0 $0 0 0 0 0 0 1313Hazel Place Villas Stillwater 0 Future Single Family 60' $0 $0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Burr Oaks West Lakeland 0 Future Single Family 180' $800 $2,000 0 0 0 0 0 6 6Otchipwe Prairie Stillwater Twp. 0 Future Single Family410' $600 $900 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Preserve, The Stillwater 0 Future Single Family 65' $650 $1,000 0 0 0 0 0 7 7Subtotals0000 02626Southeast SubmarketAfton Estates Afton 0 Future Single Family 130' $0 $0 0 0 0 0 0 19 19Erin Glen Denmark 0 Future Single Family 130' $0 $0 0 0 0 0 0 11 11Subtotals0000 03030Forest Lake SubmarketHeadwaters/(DTH) Forest Lake 0 Future Single Family 60' $0 $0 0 0 0 0 0 29 29Subtotals0000 02929Hugo SubmarketOakdale SubmarketLake Elmo SubmarketConcept ‐ The Royal Golf Club at Lake Elmo Lake Elmo 0 Future Single Family 80' $0 $0 0 0 0 0 0 292 292Lake Ridge Crossing (Hammes Estates) Lake Elmo 0 Future Single Family 80' $500 $700 0 0 0 0 0 199 199Hidden Meadows Lake Elmo 0 Future Single Family 80' $0 $0 0 0 0 0 0 26 26Legends of Lake Elmo (concept only) Lake Elmo 0 Future Single Family 80' $0 $0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Village Park Preserve (Northport) Lake Elmo 0 Future Single Family 60' $400 $600 0 0 0 0 0 104 104Subtotals0 0 0 0 0 621 621Product TypePricing ($1,000) AnnualCONTINUEDSubdivision Name CityInitial Active Qtr.StatusTABLE FS‐13SUBDIVISION & LOT INVENTORY ‐ DETACHED HOUSING UNITSWASHINGTON COUNTY4th Quarter 2016
FOR‐SALE MARKET ANALYSIS MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 148 Vacant Lot Range Quarterly Currently Developed Lot Future Total(Ft.) Min Max Starts Closings Starts Occupied Inventory (VDL) Units (Fut) Units (Tot)Future SubdivisionsWoodbury SubmarketCopper Ridge Woodbury 0 Future Single Family 70' $0 $0 0 0 0 0 0 268 268Summerhill Woodbury 0 Future Single Family 50' $0 $0 0 0 0 0 0 38 38Subtotals0 0 0 0 0 306 306Cottage Grove Area SubmarketConcept ‐ Bothe Property Cottage Grove 0 Future Single Family 70'‐80' $0 $0 0 0 0 0 0 302 302Grayson Meadows Cottage Grove 0 Future Single Family 75' $0 $0 0 0 0 0 0 45 45Subtotals0 0 0 0 0 347 347Future SubdivisionsEast Submarket0000 000West Submarket0 0 0 0 0 1,359 6,415Washington County0 0 0 0 0 1,359 6,415Sources: Metrostudy, Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLCTABLE FS‐13SUBDIVISION & LOT INVENTORY ‐ DETACHED HOUSING UNITSAnnualWASHINGTON COUNTY4th Quarter 2016Subdivision Name CityInitial Active Qtr.Status Product TypePricing ($1,000)
FOR‐SALE MARKET ANALYSIS MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 149 Vacant Lot Range Annual Annual Quarterly Currently Developed Lot Future Total(Ft.) Min Max Starts Closings Starts Occupied Inventory (VDL) Units (Fut) Units (Tot)Previously Platted/Marketing SubdivisionsNortheast SubmarketNoneStillwater Area SubmarketNoneSoutheast SubmarketNoneForest Lake SubmarketGateway Green/(TH) Gateway Green Forest Lake 3Q06 Townhouse 43' $120 $150 4 0 0 76 25 0 114Summerfield/Maple Cove/Landings at (TH) Summerfields Forest Lake 3Q05 Townhouse 45' $290 $425 3 8 0 22 0 0 25Subtotals7 8 0 98 25 0 139Hugo SubmarketVictor Gardens/Villa & Courtyard (TH) Victor Gardens Hugo 2Q05 Townhouse 38' $145 $240 1 0 1 156 0 0 297Generation Acres Generation Acres Hugo12 0 12Waters Edge/Village Homes/Preserve (TH) Waters Edge in Hugo Hugo 2Q05 Townhouse 22' $120 $130 0 0 0 218 112 0 328Subtotals1 0 1 374 124 0 637Oakdale SubmarketCardinal Place (TW) Undefined Oakdale 4Q15 Duplex 50' $322 $500 8 11 2 12 4018Lake Elmo SubmarketSavona/Colonial Manor/Row (TH) Savona Lake Elmo 2Q15 Townhouse 32' $240 $263 21 12 11 17 16 0 47Savona/Colonial Patriaot/Back to Back (TH) Savona Lake Elmo 2Q15 Townhouse 32' $267 $287 30 13 15 19 32 0 74Subtotals51 25 26 36 48 0 121Woodbury SubmarketCompass Pointe (TW) Compass Pointe Woodbury 1Q15 Duplex 55' $310 $325 20 15 8 19 24 36 88Dancing Waters/Conifer Point (TH) Dancing Waters Woodbury 3Q13 Townhouse 65' $485 $545 3 7 0 14 2 0 18Dancing Waters/Landsway/Courtyards (TH) Dancing Waters Woodbury 1Q05 Townhouse 63' $290 $350 0 0 0 48 24 0 72Dancing Waters/Landsway/Plazas (TH) Dancing Waters Woodbury 3Q02 Townhouse 37' $404 $424 0 0 0 48 8 0 56Eastview Place (TH) Compass Pointe Woodbury 3Q14 Townhouse 45' $269 $400 10 16 4 19 23 26 74Harvest/Commons TH Harvest Woodbury 4Q16 Townhouse 25' $260 $265 6 0 6 0 0 116 122Highland Knoll/(TW) Highland Knoll Woodbury 1Q08 Duplex 45' $200 $250 00 0 12 4 0 18Stonemill Farms/(TH) Stonemill Farms Woodbury 1Q11 Townhouse 24' $275$295 35 20 16 110 8 0 133Stonemill Farms/(TW) Stonemill Farms Woodbury 4Q12 Duplex 45' $310 $395 0 3 0 42 2 0 46Subtotals74 61 34 312 95 178 627Cottage Grove SubmarketMississippi Dunes/(TH) Mississippi Dunes Cottage Grove 2Q03 Townhouse 42' $132 $150 0 4 0 77 19 0 102Riverside Park Estates/(TH) Riverside Park Estates St. Paul Park 3Q03 Townhouse 40' $180 $251 0 0 0 18 6 38 62Subtotal0 4 0 95 25 38 164East Submarket0 0 0 0 0 75 75West Submarket141 109 63 927 352 320 1,694Washington County Total141 109 63 927 321 216 1,706Source: Metrostudy, Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLCProduct TypePricing ($1,000)TABLE FS‐14ACTIVE SUBDIVISIONS ‐ ATTACHED HOUSING UNITSWASHINGTON COUNTY4TH QUARTER 2016Subdivision Name Hsg. Community CityInitial Active Qtr.
FOR‐SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 150
The graph above shows the average price of single‐family and multifamily homes by sub‐
market in Washington County with an average for the East and West submarkets. The East
submarkets had no figures for multifamily as of 4th Quarter 2016. The average price of sin‐
gle‐family homes sold in the East submarket was 32% higher than the West submarket.
Future Lots
There are an estimated 4,317 vacant developed and future lots in Washington County; of
which 53% are located in existing subdivisions. Future lots include vacant developable lots
in actively marketing subdivisions, undeveloped lots in actively marketing subdivisions, and
planned/pending subdivisions with undeveloped and non‐platted lots. Only 5% of the fu‐
ture lots are located in the East Submarket.
A three‐ to five‐year supply of lots is an appropriate balance between providing ade‐
quate consumer choice and minimizing developers’ carrying costs. With an annual average
absorption of 568 lots (based on the average annual number of closings), Washington Coun‐
ty would need a supply of at least 2,800 platted developable lots (five‐year supply given cur‐
rent growth rates). With 1,278 vacant developed lots today, there is less than a three‐year
supply at the previous average rate of closings. However, indications are that closings may
increase due to continued demand and new subdivisions are being platted. There are,
however, 3,192 future lots that are proceeding through the platting process and a number
FOR‐SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 151
of these proposed subdivisions are nearing final plat approvals. In addition, new applica‐
tions are already starting to come in to several of communities including Lake Elmo, Wood‐
bury, Cottage Grove, Forest Lake and Stillwater. Development of lots future subdivisions
will increase new home construction. The supply of vacant developed lots and future lots
however, is not evenly distributed throughout the county. There are more lots available in
the West submarket than in the East submarket and Lake Elmo and Woodbury have recent‐
ly experienced a substantial surge in proposed single‐family subdivisions. For‐sale multi‐
family development is also increasing with twinhomes, townhomes and detached villas un‐
der development or in the planning stages, but again, development is not evenly distribut‐
ed. Some of the clustering of new subdivisions is a result of greater land availability, close
proximity to employment concentrations, transportation corridors and other amenities.
Some of the lack of development in the east submarkets includes low‐density zoning, more
limited infrastructure and in some communities, limited land availability.
If annual absorption remains at approximately 600 units annually, there would be an
estimated seven‐year supply of lots if all vacant developed and future lots were to be
brought to the market. If absorption increases beyond 600 units annually, then total lot
supply may be reduced earlier than this timeframe.
VDL1 UAL2 Future3 Total VDL
1 UAL2 Future3 Total
Submarket LotsLotsLotsLotsLotsLotsLotsLots
Northeast 620062 0000
Stillwater Area 216 95 26 337 0000
Southeast 34 2 30 66 0000
Forest Lake 164 139 29 332 250025
Hugo 137 20 0 157 11800118
Matomedi/Grant Area 6 0 0 6 0000
Oakdale Area 0 0 0 0 4004
Lake Elmo 234 704 621 1,559 480048
Woodbury 302 329 306 937 76 178 0 254
Cottage Grove Area 139 328 347 814 25 38 0 63
Total 1,294 1,617 1,359 4,270 296 216 0 512
1 Vacant Developed Lots
2 Undeveloped Active Lots
3 Future lots include non‐developed planned/pending subdivisions.
Sources: Metrostudy; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Single‐Family Townhome/Twinhome/Condominium
TABLE FS‐15
SUMMARY OF FUTURE LOTS
WASHINGTON COUNTY
4th Quarter 2016
The charts on the following page show a summary of future lots by east and west submarkets
and by individual submarket for 4th Quarter 2016. Oakdale and Mahtomedi’s lots do not show
up on the charts because the total number is so small.
FOR‐SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 152
465
0
3,805
512
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
SF THFuture LotsLot Type
Total Future Lots ‐4Q 2016
East West
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Future LotsSubmarket
Total Future Lots by Submarket ‐ 4Q 2016
SF TH
FOR‐SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 153
New Construction
Table FS‐16 presents summary information on new home construction constructed since 2013
for all MLS real estate listings sold, pending, or active in Washington County. Table FS‐17
compares new home construction in Washington County versus other Metro Area counties.
The data is provided by the Regional Multiple Listing Services of Minnesota (RMLS) and was
compiled in January 2017. Although MLS listings generally account for the vast majority of all
residential sale listings in a given area, they account for only a portion of new construction
listings. Many subdivisions may only market a few listings on the MLS within a much larger
subdivision. A review of new construction listings finds the following characteristics:
Washington County
Two‐story homes are the dominant single‐family housing type constructed today. Single‐
family homes make up 91% of the East Submarket and 74% of the West Submarket’s single‐
family new construction product type. In both submarkets, the average list price for two‐
story homes surpasses $475,000.
Although the East Submarket has higher pricing for single‐family homes, the West Submar‐
ket has higher townhome pricing. This is due to a number of move‐up twinhomes and de‐
tached townhomes in the West Submarket that are similar to single‐family homes but are
association‐maintained.
FOR‐SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 154
Avg. Avg. Size Avg. Price Avg. Avg.
Property Type Listings Pct. Price (Sq. Ft.) Per Sq. Ft. Bedrooms Bathrooms
One story 46 20.8% $655,265 3,294 $199 3.6 3.0
1.5‐story 3 1.4% $307,400 2,088 $147 3.1 2.0
2‐story 172 77.8% $558,868 3,653 $153 4.4 4.1
Modifed 2‐story 0 0.0% ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
More than 2‐stories 0 0.0% ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Split entry/Bi‐level 0 0.0% ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
3‐level split 0 0.0% ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
4 or more split‐level 0 0.0% ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Other 0 0.0% ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Total/Avg. 221 100.0%$583,518 3,570 $163 4.2 3.9
Detached 2 8.7% $393,950 2,313 $170 2.0 2.0
Quad/4 Corners 00.0%‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐
Twin Home 0 0.0% ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Side‐by‐Side 21 91.3% $225,542 1,957 $115 3.0 3.0
Total/Avg. 23 100.0% $240,186 1,988 $121 2.9 2.9
East Total/Avg. 244 $551,155 3,421 $161 4.1 3.8
One story 120 9.6% $480,834 2,828 $170 3.2 2.9
1.5‐story 6 0.5% $437,174 2,608 $168 3.7 2.8
2‐story 1,076 85.7% $476,108 3,178 $150 4.3 3.6
Modifed 2‐story 4 0.3% $414,548 2,613 $159 4.3 3.3
More than 2‐stories 0 0.0% ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Split entry/Bi‐level 40 3.2% $262,095 1,670 $157 3.3 2.1
3‐level split 5 0.4% $309,233 1,729 $179 3.4 2.2
4 or more split‐level 4 0.3% $292,538 1,917 $153 3.8 2.5
Other 0 0.0% ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Total/Avg. 1,255 100.0%$468,106 3,082 $152 4.1 3.5
Detached 175 40.0% $448,263 2,292 $196 2.7 2.7
Quad/4 Corners 42 9.6% $294,284 2,037 $144 3.1 2.9
Twin Home 62 14.2% $375,610 2,285 $164 2.7 2.7
Side‐by‐Side 159 36.3% $323,796 2,141 $151 2.9 3.1
Total/Avg. 438 100.0%$378,030 2,212 $171 2.8 2.8
West Total/Avg. 1,693 100.0% $551,267 3,454 $160 4.1 3.7
Source: Regional Multiple Listing Service of MN; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
TABLE FS‐16
SUMMARY OF NEWER CONSTRUCTION MARKETING ON MLS
WASHINGTON COUNTY: EAST VS. WEST SUBMARKETS
HOMES CONSTRUCTED 2013 ‐ 2016
EAST SUBMARKET
Single‐Family
Townhomes/Twinhomes
WEST SUBMARKET
Single‐Family
Townhomes/Twinhomes
FOR‐SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 155
Split‐level single‐family homes are the most affordable among all new single‐family con‐
struction types, averaging $262,100. Additionally, these homes are the smallest in size
(1,670 square feet) and have one of the lowest per square foot costs ($157 PSF). However,
many of these homes have unfinished basements that can be finished at the time of sale or
later.
There are no new condominiums actively marketing at this time. After the real estate
bubble collapse, condominium pricing plummeted and new development stalled across the
Metro Area and has continued to remain dormant in Washington County.
Avg. Med. Avg. Size Avg. Price Avg. Avg.
Property Type # of Sales Pct. Price Price (Sq. Ft.) Per Sq. Ft. Bedrooms Bathrooms
Washington County 1,159 13.1% $471,701 $430,660 3,159 $150 4.1 3.6
Anoka County 1,551 17.6% $362,266 $349,900 2,441 $148 3.7 2.9
Carver County 839 9.5% $433,890 $404,000 2,876 $151 3.9 3.3
Dakota County 1,436 16.3% $436,523 $420,000 3,102 $141 4.2 3.5
Hennepin County 2,840 32.2% $629,605 $555,215 3,532 $178 4.3 3.9
Ramsey County 405 4.6% $551,910 $558,238 2,114 $177 4.1 3.5
Scott County 585 6.6% $409,907 $401,975 2,849 $144 4.0 3.3
Total/Avg. 8,815 100.0% $493,574 $456,263 3,048 $158 4.1 3.5
Washington County 379 18.8% $370,074 $362,334 2,226 $167 2.9 2.8
Anoka County 373 18.5% $317,680 $295,900 2,091 $152 2.7 2.7
Carver County 256 12.7% $306,475 $269,000 2,160 $142 2.9 2.9
Dakota County 344 17.1% $344,292 $315,776 2,301 $150 3.0 3.0
Hennepin County 435 21.6% $355,178 $307,411 2,133 $167 2.9 3.0
Ramsey County 87 61.3% $422,702 $317,702 2,299 $184 2.7 2.7
Scott County 142 7.0% $304,225 $265,001 2,151 $141 2.9 2.9
Total/Avg. 2,016 157.0% $342,324 $303,613 2,183 $157 2.9 2.9
Washington County 0 0.0% ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Anoka County 0 0.0% ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Carver County 0 0.0% ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Dakota County 4 1.4% $223,852 $158,522 1,734 $129 2.0 1.8
Hennepin County 280 97.9% $555,098 $446,725 1,476 $376 2.0 2.1
Ramsey County 2 0.7% $650,899 $650,899 2,274 $286 2.5 2.0
Scott County 0 0.0% ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐
Total/Avg. 286 100.0% $551,135 $444,122 1,485 $372 2.0 2.1
Source: Regional Multiple Listing Service of MN; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Townhomes/Twinhomes
Condominiums/Cooperatives
TABLE FS‐17
SUMMARY OF NEW CONSTRUCTION MARKETING ON MLS
METRO AREA COUNTIES
HOMES CONSTRUCTED 2013 ‐ 2016
Single‐Family
FOR‐SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 156
Metro Area Comparison
The average sales price of a new single‐family home in the Metro Area is $493,574. This is
slightly higher than the average sales price in Washington County of $471,701.
The average price per square foot (PSF) for new single‐family homes in Washington County
is $150 PSF. This is slightly lower than the Metro Area average of $158; therefore, buyers in
Washington County are obtaining more home for their dollar than in other areas in the
Metro Area.
FOR‐SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 157
Compared to other counties in the Metro Area, new construction pricing in Washington
County is generally lower than Hennepin and Ramsey Counties and on‐par with Carver and
Dakota Counties. Washington County new construction is generally more expensive than
Anoka, Dakota and Scott Counties.
Lot Supply by Lot Size
FS‐18 depicts trends in new single‐family home construction based on lot size (i.e. front foot‐
age). The data is current as of 4th Quarter 2016 and is broken down by eight different lot size
categories.
In the 7‐County Metro Area, the majority of lot closings have been lots sized between 70
and 79 feet and 80 and 89 feet. Approximately 54% of all lot closings over the past year
have fallen into these two categories. Washington County lots are similar with 52% of clos‐
ings consisting of lots between 70 and 89 feet.
Generally, lot sizes have decreased since the recession as developers have sought to maxim‐
ize density. According to the data on Table FS‐18, 28% of lot closings in the Twin Cities Met‐
ro Area in the past year have been on lots less than 70 feet in width. Only 8% of lots have
widths larger than 110 feet; these would generally be considered executive lots or may be
rural lots.
FOR‐SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 158
Single‐family homes in Washington County tend to have similar lot sizes compared to the
Metro Area. An estimated 21% of lot closings are for lots with between 80 and 89 feet and
another 8% are executive or rural lots (110’+). Comparable to the Metro Area, lots less than
70 feet in width account for 27% of new construction lots in the county.
Lot Size Fn. Vac. Under Hsg. Vac. Dev. Future
(Width) Starts Closing Starts Closing (FV) Const. (UC) Invent. Lots (VDL) Lots (Fut)
Washington County
0 ‐ 49 00000 00 25 32
50 ‐ 59 5 9 76 67 4 7 15 46 255
60 ‐ 69 22 38 134 89 30 32 73 316 561
70 ‐ 79 45 57 203 176 29 47 92 306 1,076
80 ‐ 89 41 36 157 118 20 45 81 276 525
90 ‐ 99 9 19 56 64 8 12 27 78 0
100 ‐ 109 21350 23 46147
110 And Over 8 13 59 49 4 32 40 182 300
Summary 132 173 688 568 95 177 331 1,275 2,896
7‐County Metro Area
0 ‐ 49 45 34 119 86 19 52 85 394 762
50 ‐ 59 80 78 328 259 23 113 154 611 1,360
60 ‐ 69 181 225 759 687 82 204 340 1,381 4,046
70 ‐ 79 251 308 1,053 941 115 294 477 1,842 6,503
80 ‐ 89 293 311 1,244 1,082 132 401 625 2,142 5,279
90 ‐ 99 58 75 259 268 27 78 126 750 480
100 ‐ 109 20 30 98 125 8 33 49 337 593
110 And Over 66 81 321 308 36 123 172 1,237 970
Summary 994 1,142 4,181 3,756 442 1,298 2,028 8,694 19,993
Greater Metro Area
0 ‐ 49 57 39 159 113 26 72 112 605 1,150
50 ‐ 59 92 106 415 332 40 128 188 1,001 1,463
60 ‐ 69 201 250 865 785 104 227 392 1,827 4,535
70 ‐ 79 306 357 1,280 1,145 141 361 576 2,705 7,994
80 ‐ 89 331 381 1,566 1,398 168 462 729 3,756 6,317
90 ‐ 99 69 96 333 335 44 90 157 1,189 801
100 ‐ 109 27 49 175 199 23 45 77 892 1,436
110 And Over 140 157 641 608 74 240 333 3,948 1,635
Summary 1,223 1,435 5,434 4,915 620 1,625 2,564 15,923 25,331
Source: Metrostudy, Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
TABLE FS‐18
LOT SIZE ANALYSIS
WASHINGTON COUNTY & METRO AREA
4TH QUARTER 2016
Quarterly Annual
FOR‐SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 159
0
67
89
176
118
64
5
49
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0 ‐ 49 50 ‐ 59 60 ‐ 69 70 ‐ 79 80 ‐ 89 90 ‐ 99 100 ‐ 109 110+ClosingsLot Width
Washington Co. Closings by Lot Size 4th Q 2016
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
0 ‐ 49 50 ‐ 59 60 ‐ 69 70 ‐ 79 80 ‐ 89 90 ‐ 99 100 ‐ 109 110+
Closings Pct. by Lot Size Comparisons ‐Detached 4th Q 2016
Wash. Co.7‐Co. Metro Greater Metro
New Construction Pricing by Lot Size
Table FS‐19 depicts new construction inventory county‐level trends for detached housing units
in Washington County. The table depicts quarterly and annual starts, finished vacant lots,
number of homes under construction and homes previously built, and the number of vacant
FOR‐SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 160
lots. All of these attributes are provided based on the estimated sales price of the home. Key
findings follow.
There have been 568 closings in Washington County over the past year. Fifteen percent of
the 7‐County Metro Area closings were in Washington County.
1
2
243
205
52
21
8
36
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
>200k
$200k ‐ $299k
$300k ‐ $399k
$400k ‐ $499k
$500k ‐ $599k
$600k ‐ $699k
$700k ‐ $749.9k
$750k+
ClosingsLot SizeWashington County Annual Closings by Price: 4thQ 2016
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%
>200k $200k ‐
$299k
$300k ‐
$399k
$400k ‐
$499k
$500k ‐
$599k
$600k ‐
$699k
$700k ‐
$749.9k
$750k+
Pct. of Sales by Location: Detached Housing Units
Wash. Co.7‐Co. Metro Greater Metro
FOR‐SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 161
Of all new detached single family homes in Washington County 42% were priced between
$300,000 and $399,999. Another 36% of homes were priced between $400,000 and
$499,999. Less than 1% of new construction was priced below $300,000. Similarly, 29% of
all new homes constructed in the 7‐County Metro Area were priced in the $400s.
Of all new single‐family closings in the county, 20.5% were priced above $500,000. Another
62% of the homes priced over $500,000 were priced between $500,000 and $700,000.
Price Point Fn. Vac. Under Hsg. Vac. Dev.
(Base Pricing) Starts Closing Starts Closing (FV) Const. (UC) Invent. Lots (VDL)
Washington County
$0 ‐ $199,000 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1
$200,000 ‐ $299,000 1 1 3 2 0 1 2 21
$300,000 ‐ $399,000 51 63 290 243 32 52 96 293
$400,000 ‐ $499,000 48 72 228 205 39 60 122 425
$500,000 ‐ $599,000 13 16 72 52 13 20 42 185
$600,000 ‐ $699,000 7 8 33 21 4 11 21 128
$700,000 ‐ $749,000 3 2 11 8 1 5 7 49
$750,000 ‐ And Over 9 10 51 36 5 28 40 174
Summary 132 172 689 568 94 177 330 1,276
7‐County Metro Total
$0 ‐ $199,000 15 16 49 47 0 16 16 112
$200,000 ‐ $299,000 81 101 347 329 28 113 155 1,075
$300,000 ‐ $399,000 369 435 1,585 1,404 124 456 665 2,587
$400,000 ‐ $499,000 299 330 1,208 1,083 136 369 599 2,240
$500,000 ‐ $599,000 103 116 445 411 53 135 228 945
$600,000 ‐ $699,000 48 51 192 174 30 69 121 611
$700,000 ‐ $749,000 15 17 66 61 10 23 39 190
$750,000 ‐ And Over 67 74 291 247 59 117 201 934
Summary 997 1,140 4,183 3,756 440 1,298 2,024 8,694
Greater Metro Area Total
$0 ‐ $199,000 34 52 257 233 32 57 91 1,771
$200,000 ‐ $299,000 160 224 835 791 111 228 361 3,878
$300,000 ‐ $399,000 464 536 1,999 1,790 172 576 848 4,388
$400,000 ‐ $499,000 317 349 1,290 1,156 143 400 640 2,842
$500,000 ‐ $599,000 108 121 471 434 55 143 240 1,125
$600,000 ‐ $699,000 52 53 206 187 31 74 128 687
$700,000 ‐ $749,000 17 18 71 64 10 25 41 218
$750,000 ‐ And Over 72 78 307 261 62 123 210 1,017
Summary 1,224 1,431 5,436 4,916 616 1,626 2,559 15,926
Sources: Metrostudy, Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
TABLE FS‐19
NEW CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY BY PRICE POINT
WASHINGTON COUNTY
4TH QUARTER 2016
Quarterly Annual
RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 162
Introduction
Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC identified and surveyed larger rental properties of 12 or
more units in Washington County. In addition, interviews were conducted with real estate
agents, developers, rental housing management firms, and others in the community familiar
with Washington County’s rental housing stock.
For purposes of the analysis, rental properties were classified into two groups, general occu‐
pancy and senior (age restricted). All senior properties are included in the Senior Rental Analy‐
sis section of the report. The general occupancy rental properties are divided into three
groups, market rate (those without income restrictions), affordable, (those with income re‐
strictions and rent affordable to households with incomes at 80% or less of area median in‐
come) and subsidized (households with incomes at or less than 50% of the area median in‐
come).
Rental Market Overview
Table R‐1 shows average monthly rents and vacancy from 4th Quarter 2015 and 4th Quarter
2016 by unit type in Washington County submarkets. Data is from Marquette Advisors, Inc.,
which compiles apartment trends quarterly, with 4th Quarter 2016 being the most recent
information available. Marquette Advisors does not inventory all Washington County submar‐
kets or each property within the identified geographies; Maxfield Research however, invento‐
ried all 12+ unit properties in each submarket in Tables R‐5 to R‐7. Some properties contacted
would not provide information to us.
Monthly rents increased in Washington County by 2.3% to $1,118. Monthly rents increased
in each submarket over the last year. Woodbury’s average rent increased the most from
$1,251 to $1,286 (2.8%), which can be attributed to the newer housing style, including luxu‐
ry style apartments. For comparison, average rents in the Twin Cities Metro Area increased
4.0% to $1,095 during the same time period.
Rental rates are highest in Woodbury than in other submarkets. Average monthly rents in
Stillwater, Oakdale, and Cottage Grove were $829, $941, and $883, respectively, in the 4th
Quarter 2016, compared to $1,286 in Woodbury and $1,095 in the Metro Area.
Vacancy rates in Washington County increased over the past year from 1.8% to 2.1% and
remain well below market equilibrium (5%). As of 4th Quarter 2016, Stillwater had the low‐
est vacancy rate at 0.9%. Woodbury had the highest vacancy rate at 2.6%. In comparison,
the Twin Cities Metro Area vacancy rate increased modestly to 2.7%.
RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 163
1 BR 2 BR 3 BR/D
Total Studio 1 BR w/ Den 2 BR w/ Den 3 BR or 4BR
Units 2,946 ‐ 640 148 1,719 78 361 ‐
No. Vacant 78 ‐1614858‐
Avg. Rent $1,286 ‐ $1,045 $1,228 $1,280 $1,500 $1,830 ‐
Vacancy 2.6%‐ 2.5% 0.7% 2.8% 6.4% 2.2% ‐
Units 2,874 ‐ 640 148 1,671 126 289 ‐
No. Vacant 64 ‐14233213‐
Avg. Rent $1,251 ‐ $1,026 $1,180 $1,235 $1,542 $1,608 ‐
Vacancy 2.2%‐ 2.2% 1.4% 2.0% 1.6% 4.5% ‐
Units 317 10 140 ‐ 167 ‐ ‐ ‐
No. Vacant 3 00 ‐3 ‐ ‐ ‐
Avg. Rent $829 $610 $765 ‐ $896 ‐ ‐ ‐
Vacancy 0.9%0% 0.0% ‐ 1.8% ‐ ‐ ‐
Units 281 10 140 ‐ 131 ‐ ‐ ‐
No. Vacant 2 00 ‐2 ‐ ‐ ‐
Avg. Rent $789 $608 $751 ‐ $844 ‐ ‐ ‐
Vacancy 0.7%0% 0.0% ‐ 1.5% ‐ ‐ ‐
Units 1,397 94 559 45 565 18 116 ‐
No. Vacant 27 0921402‐
Avg. Rent $941 $746 $835 $1,257 $1,024 $1,563 $986 ‐
Vacancy 1.9%0.0% 1.6% 4.4% 2.5% 0.0% 1.7% ‐
Units 1,193 94 524 45 427 18 85 ‐
No. Vacant 17 0111 4 0 1‐
Avg. Rent $910 $713 $804 $1,257 $980 $1,563 $1,102 ‐
Vacancy 1.4%0.0% 2.1% 2.2% 0.9% 0.0% 1.2% ‐
Units 656 ‐ 147 ‐ 367 ‐ 142 ‐
No. Vacant 7 ‐0‐7‐ 0 ‐
Avg. Rent $883 ‐ $805 ‐ $891 ‐ $946 ‐
Vacancy 1.1%‐ 0.0% ‐ 1.9% ‐ 0.0% ‐
Units 784 ‐ 147 ‐ 367 ‐ 270 ‐
No. Vacant 9 ‐1‐5‐ 3 ‐
Avg. Rent $898 ‐ $749 ‐ $870 ‐ $1,024 ‐
Vacancy 1.1%‐ 0.7% ‐ 1.4% ‐ 1.1% ‐
Units 133,265 6,978 59,150 3,221 55,491 1,616 6,442 367
No. Vacant 3,652 151 1,828 101 1,394 73 100 5
Avg. Rent $1,095 $869 $967 $1,352 $1,177 $1,921 $1,419 $2,240
Vacancy 2.7%2.2% 3.1% 3.1% 2.5% 4.5% 1.6% 1.4%
Units 129,119 6,654 56,954 2,998 54,034 1,552 6,513 414
No. Vacant 2,947 122 1,264 70 1,310 46 125 10
Avg. Rent $1,053 $822 $923 $1,300 $1,132 $1,789 $1,383 $1,820
Vacancy 2.3%1.8% 2.2% 2.3% 2.4% 3.0% 1.9% 2.4%
Sources: Marquette Advisors; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
TABLE R‐1
AVERAGE RENTS/VACANCIES TRENDS
WASHINGTON COUNTY
4th Quarters 2015 & 2016
WOODBURY
4th Q 2016STILLWATER
4th Q 20164th Q 2015OAKDALE
4th Q 20154th Q 20164th Q 2015TWIN CITIES METRO AREA
4th Q 2015 4th Q 20164th Q 2015COTTAGE GROVE/NEWPORT/ST.PAUL PARK
4th Q 2016
RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 164
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
Total Studio 1 BR 1 BR
w/Den
2 BR 2 BR w/
Den
3 BR 3 BR/D
or 4 BR
Average Vacancies by Unit Type
4th Quarter 2016
Woodbury
Stillwater
Oakdale
Cottage Grove Area
Twin Cities Metro Area
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
Total Studio 1 BR 1 BR
w/Den
2 BR 2 BR w/
Den
3 BR 3 BR/D
or 4 BR
Average Rents by Unit Type
4th Quarter 2016
Woodbury
Stillwater
Oakdale
Cottage Grove Area
Twin Cities Metro Area
RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 165
Rental Market Conditions
Maxfield Research also utilized data from the American Community Survey (ACS) to summarize
rental market conditions in Washington County. The ACS is an ongoing survey conducted by
the United States Census Bureau that provides data every year rather than every ten years as
presented by the decennial census. This data is incorporated because these figures are not
available from the 2010 Decennial Census.
Table R‐2 on the following page presents a breakdown of median gross rent and monthly gross
rent ranges by number of bedrooms in renter‐occupied housing units from the 2011‐2015 ACS
in Washington County in comparison to the Twin Cities Metro Area. Gross rent is defined as the
amount of the contract rent plus the estimated average monthly cost of utilities (electricity,
gas, and water and sewer) and fuels (oil, coal, wood, etc.) if these are paid by the renter.
Approximately 29% of the renter‐occupied housing units in Washington County have three
or more bedrooms compared to 21% in the Metro Area. One‐bedroom units comprise 24%
of Washington County’s renter‐occupied housing supply and units while only 2% of the
renter‐occupied units have no bedrooms. By comparison, roughly 36% of the Metro Area’s
renter‐occupied housing units are one‐bedroom and 6% have no bedrooms.
Roughly 45% of the renter‐occupied housing units in Washington County have two bed‐
rooms compared to 37% in the Metro Area.
RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 166
# % of Total # % of Total # % of Total
Total: 18,068 100% 364,642 100% 602,127 100%
Median Gross Rent $1,144 $946 $848
No Bedroom 337 2% 20,169 6% 29,322 5%
Less than $300 0 0% 1,947 1% 3,138 1%
$300 to $499 0 0% 2,193 1% 5,088 1%
$500 to $749 93 1% 8,989 2% 11,761 2%
$750 to $999 157 1% 4,157 1% 5,265 1%
$1,000 to $1,499 16 0% 1,714 0% 2,224 0%
$1,500 or more 71 0% 932 0% 1,462 0%
No cash rent 0 0% 237 0% 384 0%
1 Bedroom 4,372 24% 132,119 36% 197,642 33%
Less than $300 422 2% 12,555 3% 25,000 4%
$300 to $499 416 2% 8,245 2% 25,430 4%
$500 to $749 976 5% 36,010 10% 57,885 10%
$750 to $999 1,165 6% 47,292 13% 54,523 9%
$1,000 to $1,499 947 5% 20,698 6% 23,880 4%
$1,500 or more 405 2% 6,192 2% 8,281 1%
No cash rent 41 0% 1,127 0% 2,643 0%
2 Bedrooms 8,076 45% 136,527 37% 227,770 38%
Less than $300 228 1% 4,114 1% 8,181 1%
$300 to $499 173 1% 4,156 1% 13,445 2%
$500 to $749 417 2% 9,551 3% 43,391 7%
$750 to $999 1,761 10% 45,582 13% 71,604 12%
$1,000 to $1,499 4,034 22% 56,542 16% 67,288 11%
$1,500 or more 1,205 7% 13,472 4% 15,647 3%
No cash rent 258 1% 3,110 1% 8,214 1%
3 or More Bedrooms 5,283 29% 75,827 21% 147,393 24%
Less than $300 46 0% 1,239 0% 3,240 1%
$300 to $499 64 0% 2,396 1% 7,657 1%
$500 to $749 309 2% 4,861 1% 17,187 3%
$750 to $999 361 2% 6,809 2% 22,712 4%
$1,000 to $1,499 1,755 10% 27,915 8% 45,899 8%
$1,500 or more 2,289 13% 27,463 8% 34,033 6%
No cash rent 459 3% 5,144 1% 16,665 3%
Sources: American Community Survey 11'‐'15; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Washington County Minnesota
TABLE R‐2
Twin Cities Metro Area
2015
WASHINGTON COUNTY
BEDROOMS BY GROSS RENT, RENTER‐OCCUPIED HOUSING UNITS
RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 167
Washington County has much higher rents compared to Minnesota. The median gross rent
in Washington County (estimated as of 2015 ACS) was $1,144 per month, which was 35%
higher than the median monthly rent of $848 in the Metro Area.
Monthly gross rents in Washington County ranged from less than $300 to more than $1,500
with over 22% renting for $1,500 or more per month. Approximately 37% had gross month‐
ly rents between $1,000 and $1,499, 19% had rents between $750 and $999, while 9% had
rents between $500 and $749. Only 7.5% of renters had rents of less than $500.
By comparison, an estimated 13% in the Twin Cities Metro Area had gross monthly rents
that were $1,500 or more. Also, 23% had gross monthly rents from $1,000 to $1,500, 28.5%
had rents between $750 and $999 and 16% had rents between $500 and $749. In addition,
an estimated 10% had rents of less than $500.
General‐Occupancy Rental Projects
Our research of Washington County’s general occupancy rental market included a survey of 59
market rate apartment properties (12 units and larger) and 34 affordable/subsidized communi‐
ties in January 2017. These properties represent a combined total of 7,858 units, including
5,753 market rate units, 1,492 affordable units and 655 subsidized units. We were able to
contact and obtain up‐to‐date information for nearly all of the rental properties (99% participa‐
tion rate). The total for the market rate units excludes properties that did not provide infor‐
mation. It was common for the smallest properties, which are most often privately‐owned, to
not participate fully in the survey. In addition, a few properties would not provide us with all
the pertinent information.
Rental Units
7,996
Market Rate
5,817
Affordable
1,524
Subsidized
655
At the time of our survey, 133 market rate and 12 affordable/subsidized units were vacant,
resulting in overall vacancy rates of 2.3% for market rate units and 0.6% for afforda‐
ble/subsidized units. The overall market rate vacancy rate of 2.3% is lower than the market
equilibrium rate of 5% for a balanced rental market, which promotes competitive rates, ensures
adequate choice and allows for adequate unit turnover.
RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 168
Table R‐3 compares market rate data from the previous update in 2013 to updated data as of
2017. Table R‐4 shows vacancy rate comparison of submarkets in Washington County. Table R‐
5 summarizes information on market rate properties, while Table R‐6 summarizes information
on affordable/subsidized properties. Table R‐7 summarizes unit features and common area
amenities among all general‐occupancy housing developments.
Market Rate
Mill Pond II, constructed in 2012, remains the newest market rate rental building in Wash‐
ington County. However, Arbor Ridge Apartments in Forest Lake is currently under con‐
struction and will open fall 2017 and additional market rate concepts are being explored for
Oakdale, Forest Lake, and Woodbury. Overall, Washington County’s rental housing stock is
older as the median year built for all units is 1987. An estimated 28% of Washington Coun‐
ty’s market rate rental units were constructed in the 1970s. Also, 27% of the market rate
rental units were built in the 1990s.
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2010s 2000s 1990s 1980s 1970s 1960s n/a # of ProjectsUnitsYear Built
Washington County Market Rate Rental Stock
(Year Built)
Units
Projects
As previously stated, a total of 133 vacancies were found, resulting in a vacancy rate of 2.3%
as of January 2017. This compares to a vacancy rate of 3.2% in the July 2013 housing study.
Nearly 54% of the market rate units in Washington County are two‐bedroom units. The unit
breakout by unit type is summarized below.
o Efficiency units: 1.8%
o One‐bedroom units: 27.7%
o Two‐bedroom units: 53.6%
o Three‐bedroom units: 13.3%
o Four‐bedroom units: 3.6%
RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 169
The following are the monthly rent ranges and average rent for each unit type:
o Efficiency units: $565 to $765 | Avg. $748
o One‐bedroom units: $625 to $1,696 | Avg. $1,064
o Two‐bedroom units: $720 to $1,911 | Avg. $1,339
o Three‐bedroom units: $800 to $2,113 | Avg. $1,582
o Four‐bedroom units: $2,113 to $2,183 | Avg. $2,155
The average monthly rent per square foot among the surveyed properties was $1.30. Rent
per square foot varied by unit type as illustrated below:
o Efficiency units: $1.72
o One‐bedroom units: $1.45
o Two‐bedroom units: $1.25
o Three‐bedroom units: $1.13
o Four‐bedroom units: $1.18
The majority of the newer properties (post‐2000) have in‐unit washer and dryers, dish‐
washers/microwave ovens and central air conditioning. Many of the older properties do
not have in‐unit washer and dryers and instead provide coin‐operated laundry areas for
their residents, either a central laundry or a laundry on each floor.
Total Total
City Units 1BR 2BR 3BR Units 1BR 2BR 3BR
Cottage Grove 589 $745 $867 $1,151 632 $817 $933 $1,234
Forest Lake 631 $733 $853 $915 836 $815 $954 $1,115
Mahtomedi/Grant 12 ‐ ‐ $1,000 12 ‐ ‐ $1,000
Oakdale 514 $832 $1,103 $1,253 868 $848 $1,066 $1,316
Stillwater 322 $701 $822 ‐ 323 $816 $974 $1,363
Woodbury 3,128 $983 $1,250 $1,650 3,146 $1,886 $1,564 $1,895
Total 5,196 $868 $1,071 $1,482 5,817 $1,064 $1,339 $1,582
Note: One‐bedroom plus den units included in two‐bedroom column and
two‐bedroom plus den units included in three‐bedroom column.
Sources: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC; Washington County CDA
RENT SUMMARY
TABLE R‐3
Average Rent
2013
Average Rent
2017
January 2017
WASHINGTON COUNTY‐ SURVEYED MARKET RATE RENTAL DEVELOPMENTS
RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 170
Vacancy Vacancy Vacancy Vacancy
Submarket Rate* Rate* Rate* Rate*
Northeast ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
Stillwater 323 0.6% 242 0.3% 175 0.0% 740 0.7%
Southeast ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
Forest Lake 836 1.2*% 230 0.4% 58 0.0% 1,124 1.0%*
Hugo ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
Mahtomedi 120.0%300.0%480.0%900.0%
Oakdale 868 1.3% 575 0.3% 324 0.0% 1,767 0.7%*
Lake Elmo ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
Woodbury 3,146 3.1% 157 1.9% ‐ ‐ 3,303 3.1%
Cottage Grove 632 1.9*% 290 2.1% 50 0.0% 972 1.8*%
Total 5,817 2.3%* 1,524 0.6% 655 0.0% 7,996 2.1%*
East 323 0.6% 242 0.0% 175 0.0% 740 0.3%
West 5,494 2.4%* 1,282 1.2% 480 0.0% 7,256 2.0%*
* Vacancy rates based on participating properties.
Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Units Units Units Units
TABLE R‐4
SUMMARY OF GENERAL OCCUPANCY RENTAL PROJECTS INVENTORIED BY SUBMARKET
JANUARY 2017
Market Rate Affordable Subsidized Total
RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 171 Year Units/AcceptProperty Name/Location Built VacantVouchers Amenities/CommentsCOTTAGE GROVE AREAHinton Heights1993 249 49 ‐ 1BR 691 ‐ 724 $824 ‐ $954 $1.19 ‐ $1.32 No 7750 Hinton Ave. 8 84 ‐ 2BR 927 ‐ 1,020 $994 ‐ $1,154 $1.07 ‐ $1.13 Cottage Grove 3.2% 116 ‐ 3BR 1,176 ‐ 1,320 $1,209 ‐ $1,339 $1.01 ‐ $1.03Glen Woods1985 44 44 ‐ 3BR 1,200 ‐ 1,500 $0.96 ‐ $0.77 Yes 1575 11th Ave. 0 Newport 0.0%Mark Court Apartments1974 96 3 ‐ Eff.Yes 1932 10th Ave. 0 45 ‐ 1BR $775 ‐ $795 $1.03‐$1.06 Newport 0.0% 48 ‐ 2BR $865 ‐ $895 $0.97‐$1.01Grove Ridge1973 84 6 ‐ 1BR $840 ‐ $840 $1.14‐$1.14 No 8130 S East Point Douglas Rd. 3 70 ‐ 2BR 850 ‐ 950 $909 ‐ $1,019 $1.07 ‐ $1.07 Cottage Grove 3.6% 8 ‐ 3BR 1,046 ‐ 1,135 $1,084 ‐ $1,129 $0.99 ‐ $1.04Newport Ponds1971 53 2 ‐ Eff. $595 ‐ $635 No 1624 10th Ave. 0 16 ‐ 1BR Newport 0.0% 35 ‐ 2BR1340 8th Ave1970 12 6 ‐ 1BRn/a Wall unit air; common laundry; surface pkg. only 1340 8th Ave. 0 6 ‐2BR Newport 0.0%Belz Apartmentsn/a 12n/a Wall‐unit air; walk‐up style building; off‐street 749 4th St. n/aparking. St. Paul ParkEmer Propertiesn/a 12n/a Walk‐up style buildings; off‐street parking 480 Pullman Ave n/awall‐unit air St. Paul Park1108 5th Stn/a 28n/a Walk‐up style building; off‐street parking 1108 5th St. n/awall‐unit air. St. Paul ParkPark Place1977 42 7 ‐ 1BRn/a Ceiling fans, wall‐unit air, heat included 300 Pullman Avenue 0 35 ‐2BRoff‐street parking; walk‐up style buildings St. Paul Park 0.0%Cottage Grove Market Area Totals 632 11 1.9*%*Vacancy Rate excludes four properties that did not participate in the rental survey.$622$682$1.33$1.03CONTINUEDn/a n/a n/a n/an/a n/a n/a n/an/a n/a n/an/a n/a n/a n/a500 $1.19 Three 3‐story bldgs; tenant pays phone and electric; detached garages; wall‐unit A/C; coin‐op laundry; walk‐in closets.750 $765 $1.02850 $855 $1.01735Formerly known as East Grove Estates. A/C; coin‐op laundry; dishwasher; disposal; balcony; storage ; playground/picnic area; pool.500 $675 $1.35Four 3‐story bldgs (24 units/each); tenant pays phone, electric & heat; detached & underground parking; wall‐unit A/C; laundry; some balconies; pool; picnic area ; storage.750890Unit Mix Unit Size Rent Square FootTwenty‐four 2‐story buildings; heat included in rent; tenant pays electric & phone; 1 attached garage included in rent; storage; A/C; W/D hook‐ups, laundry, too; dishwasher; disposal; microwave; balcony/patio; party room; exercise room playground.$1,150 3‐story complex; tenant pays electric & heat; 1 attached garage stall w/unit; A/C; patio; dishwasher; picnic/play area; basketball court.TABLE R‐5MARKET‐RATE GENERAL OCCUPANCY RENTAL DEVELOPMENT SURVEY RESPONSESWASHINGTON COUNTYJanuary 2017Monthly Rent per466660
RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 172 Year Units/AcceptProperty Name/Location Built VacantVouchers Amenities/CommentsFOREST LAKEArbor Ridge Apartments2017 73 48 ‐ 1BR 480 ‐ 660 $810 ‐ $940 $1.69 ‐ $1.42 No Opening Fall 2017; Garage $55/mo. Extra.1700 8th Street SE 25 ‐ 2BR 910 ‐ 1109 $1,140 ‐ $1,376 $1.25 ‐ $1.24 Tenant pays all utilities; Fitness ctr.; walkingForest Laketrails; patio; BBQ grills; in‐unit w/d; full kitchen appliance package; stainless appl.Mill Pond II and III2012 120 90 ‐ 2BR 890 ‐ 1,050 $985 ‐ $1,115 $1.11 ‐ $1.06 No Two story building, underground parking,525 SW 4th St. 0 30 ‐ 3BR 1,050 ‐ 1,140 $1,110 ‐ $1,160 $1.06 ‐ $1.02 hot tub, tanning room, storage units, Forest Lake 0.0%recreation room, and workout room.Mill Pond Forest Apartments2002 30 20 ‐ 2BR 995 ‐ 1,050 $1,015 ‐ $1,085 $1.02 ‐ $1.03 No Recreation room, underground parking, 525 4th St SW 0 10 ‐ 3BR 1,050 ‐ 1,138 $1,080 ‐ $1,130 $1.03 ‐ $0.99 elevator, storage units, washer and dryer inForest Lake 0.0%some units, and elevator.Maple Court Apartments2001 12 12 ‐ 3BRNo Two‐story building. Large closets, stove,390 9th Ave SW 0controlled access, dishwasher, and laundry.Forest Lake 0.0%Pineridge Apartments1998 18 18 ‐ 3BR 975 ‐ 1,020 $1,040 ‐ $1,060 $1.07 ‐ $1.04 No Three‐story building. Large closets, alarm912 4th St 0system, garage available, patio, and laundryForest Lake 0.0%services available as well.Pine Forest Apartments1987 15 13 ‐ 2BR 600 ‐ 700 $600 ‐ $625 $1.00 ‐ $0.89 No Spacious living room, laundry services on‐924 4th St SW 0 2 ‐ 3BR 800 ‐ 950 $800 ‐ $825 $1.00 ‐ $0.87 site, detached garage, and mini‐storage.Forest Lake 0.0%Alpine South Apartments1975 17 10 ‐ 1BR $650 ‐ $690 $0.86 ‐ $0.91 No Detached garage, extra storage, laundry219 3rd Ave Sw 0 7 ‐ 2BR $720 ‐ $760 $0.94 ‐ $0.99 on‐site, walk‐in closets. Water, heat, andForest Lake 0.0%garbage included in the rent.Alpine North Apartments1975 23 8 ‐ 1BR $650 ‐ $690 $0.86 ‐ $0.91 No Detached garage, extra storage, laundry231 4th Ave NW 0 15 ‐ 2BR $720 ‐ $760 $0.94 ‐ $0.99 on‐site, walk‐in closets. Water, heat, andForest Lake 0.0%garbage included in the rent.North Shore Apartments1975 60 35 ‐ 1BR $825 ‐ $855 $1.03 ‐ $1.07 Yes 1167‐79 North Shore Dr. 1 25 ‐ 2BR $950 ‐ $975 $1.00 ‐ $1.03 Forest Lake 1.7%Village Apartments1975 252 40 ‐ Eff. $690 ‐ $725 $1.73 ‐ $1.81 No 407 11th Ave. SW 6 100 ‐ 1BR 600 ‐ 680 $815 ‐ $815 $1.36‐$1.36 Forest Lake 2.4% 20 1BR+D $905 ‐ $905 $0.96‐$0.9680 ‐ 2BR 850 ‐ 950 $899 ‐ $950 $1.06‐$1.1212 ‐ 2BRD 1,090 ‐ 1,170 $1,255 ‐ $1,255 $1.15‐$1.15Forest Park II Apts.1974 60 24 ‐ 1BRYes 1001 7th Ave. SW 1 30 ‐ 2BR Forest Lake 1.7% 6 ‐ 3BR Section 236956 Place1972 48 18 ‐ 1BRn/a 956 12th St. SW 1 30 ‐ 2BR 910 ‐ 960 $925 ‐ $960 $1.02 ‐ $1.00 Forest Lake 2.1%TABLE R‐5MARKET‐RATE GENERAL OCCUPANCY RENTAL DEVELOPMENT SURVEY RESPONSESWASHINGTON COUNTYJanuary 2017(continued)Monthly Rent perUnit Mix Unit Size Rent Square Foot9451,035 $1,060 $1.02759767759767800 Two 3‐story buildings; heat included in rent; tenant pays electric; detached garages; wall‐unit A/C; coin‐op laundry; dishwasher; balconies; storage; dock access to lake.950400 Seven 3‐story buildings; rent includes heat; tenant pays electric & phone; detached garages; wall‐unit A/C; ; storage on each floor; social room in each bldg (kitchen, couch, chairs, billiard table; grills.680 $815 $1.20 Heat included in rent; tenant pays electric; detached garages; wall‐unit A/C; coin‐op laundry; dishwasher; disposal; balconies.860 $990 $1.151,045 $1,100 $1.05750 $795 $1.06 One 3‐story bldg.; rent includes heat; tenant pays electric & phone; detached garages; wall‐unit A/C; coin‐op laundry; balconies & patios; storage on each floor.CONTINUED
RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 173 Year Units/AcceptProperty Name/Location Built VacantVouchers Amenities/CommentsFOREST LAKE (continued)Forest Park I Apts.1971 20 12 ‐ 1BRYes 1143 7th Ave. SW 1 8 ‐ 2BR Forest Lake 5.0% FmHA844 4th Stn/a 16 2 ‐ 1BRNo Each apartment has deck/patio, laundry on‐Forest Lake 0 14 ‐ 2BRsite, secure entrance, big closet, and 0.0%storage.Seven Pines Apartments1985 72 24 ‐ 1BR $800 ‐ $850 $1.40 ‐ $1.49 No Wall unit‐air; common laundry; playground;1243 11th Ave. SW 0 37 ‐ 2BR 720 ‐ 742 $900 ‐ $950 $1.25 ‐ $1.28 balcony; high‐speed internet; ceiling fan;Forest Lake, MN 0.0% 12 ‐ 3BR 1,100 ‐ 1,200 $1,100 ‐ $1,200 $1.00 ‐ $1.00 cats allowed.Forest Lake Market Area Totals 836 10 1.2%**Vacancy Rate excludes several properties due to lack of participation.OAKDALECedric's Landing2002 166 6 ‐ Studio 361 ‐ 606 $725 ‐ $965 $2.01 ‐$2.67 No5680 Hadley Avenue 3 53 ‐ 1 BR 787 ‐ 815 $995 ‐ $1,175 $1.26 ‐ $1.44Oakdale 1.8% 24 ‐ 1 BRD 952 ‐ 977 $1,099 ‐ $1,355 $1.15 ‐ $1.3965 ‐ 2 BR 1,090 ‐ 1,176 $1,434 ‐ $1,458 $1.24 ‐ $1.3218 ‐ 2 BRD $1,530 ‐ $1,630 $1.08 ‐$1.15Briar Pond Apartments and TH's1991 196 90 ‐ 1BR 726 ‐ 736 $849 ‐ $849 $1.17 ‐$1.17 No Full kitchen appliance package w/dishwasher & 1591 Granada Avenue North 0 74 ‐ 2BR 982 ‐ 1,050 $952 ‐ $1,037 $0.97 ‐ $0.99microwave; in‐unit washer/dryer; balconies andOakdale 0.0% 24 ‐ 2BR THextra storage space; Townhomes have private 8‐3BR THdetached garage; apartments have one UG stallincluded; fitness ctr and party room; utilities incl.Gentry Apartments1980 42 6 ‐ Eff.Yes 1343 North Gentry 0 18 ‐ 1BR Oakdale 0% 18 ‐ 2BREast Gate Apartments1973 64 1 ‐ Eff.No 6048 51st Ave. N 1 30 ‐ 1BR $700‐$730 $0.97 ‐$1.01 Oakdale 0% 21 ‐ 2BR $900‐$960 $0.96 ‐$1.0212 2BRD $960‐$980 $0.91 ‐$0.93Ridge Crest1971 50 25 ‐ 1BR 600 ‐ 685 $795 ‐ $795 $1.33 ‐$1.33 No 969 Greenway 2 25 ‐ 2BR 820 ‐ 850 $890 ‐ $890 $1.05 ‐ $1.09 Oakdale 4.0% Minnehaha Manor1969 175 31 ‐ Eff. $769 ‐ $839 $1.81 ‐ $1.97 No 6904 10th St. N 4 84 ‐ 1BR $909 ‐ $949 $1.45 ‐$1.52 Oakdale 2.3% 59 ‐ 2BR $1,039 ‐ $1,079 $1.12 ‐$1.171‐3BRGeneva Village Apartments1972 175 115 ‐ 1BRYes Playground; coin‐operated laundry; assigned 6040 North 40th Street 1 60 ‐ 2BRparking $50/mo.; wall‐unit air conditioning; Oakdale 0.6%stove, refrigerator; high‐speed internet; pets allowed.Oakdale Market Area Totals 868 11 1.3%$720$820$1.05$0.98571TABLE R‐5MARKET‐RATE GENERAL OCCUPANCY RENTAL DEVELOPMENT SURVEY RESPONSESWASHINGTON COUNTYJanuary 2017(continued)Monthly Rent perUnit Mix Unit Size Rent Square Foot708 $750 $1.06 Heat included in rent; tenant pays electric; detached garages at $45/mo; wall‐unit A/C; coin‐op laundry; dishwasher; disposal; balconies.888 $875 $0.99500 $625 $1.25650 $725 $1.12Rent includes basic cable, heat, & water; tenant pays electric; full size washer & dryer in each unit; heated underground parking; outdoor pool & hottub.1,4141,054550 $720 $1.31 Rent includes heat; tenant pays electric & phone; detached garages; A/C; laundry; dishwasher; disposal; patios; storage.750 $875 $1.17950 $1,010 $1.06Rent includes heat; tenant pays electric & phone; detached garages; A/C; coin‐op laundry; dishwasher; disposal; patios;outdoor pool; storage on each floor.410 $600 $1.46 Rent includes heat; tenant pays electric; detached garages; laundry; outdoor pool; sauna; storage lockers; A/C; balcony/patio; dishwasher; disposal; walk‐in closet.7209401,050Rent includes heat; tenant pays electric & phone; detached garages; wall‐unit A/C; coin‐op laundry; dishwasher; new cabinetry; storage available; picnic area/outdoor pool.6259251,150 $1,319 $1.15425688840CONTINUED1,219$1,066$1,237$1.01$1.01
RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 174 Year Units/AcceptProperty Name/Location Built VacantVouchers Amenities/CommentsMAHTOMEDIMallard Shoresn/a 12 12 ‐ 3BR 1,050 ‐ 1,100 $975 ‐ $1,025 $0.93 ‐ $0.93 No220‐240 Hallam Ave S 0Mahtomedi 0.0%Mahtomedi Market Area Totals 12 0 0.0%STILLWATERCurve Crest Villas2003 58 5 ‐ 1BRNo2225 W. Orleans St. 1 36 ‐ 2BR 1,074 ‐1,255 $1,150 ‐ $1,295 $1.07 ‐ $1.03Stillwater 1.7% 17 ‐ 3BR 1,245 ‐1,312 $1,350 ‐ $1,375 $1.08 ‐ $1.05Cottages of Stillwater1991 20 5 ‐ 1BRNo2210 Cottage Dr. 0 15 ‐ 2BRStillwater 0.0%Orleans Homes1986 31 18 ‐ 1BRNo 1401 Cottage Dr. 0 13 ‐ 2BR 813 ‐ 868 $1.12 ‐ $1.20 Stillwater 0.0%605 Stillwater Rd1975 12 1 ‐ 1BRNo605 Stillwater Rd 0 11 ‐ 2BRWillernie 0%Colonial Apartments1975 8 8 ‐ 2BR 750 ‐ 780 $1.09 ‐ $1.13 No 463‐5 3rd St. S 0 Bayport 0.0%Oak Park Heights Apts.1973 72 43 ‐ 1BR $850 ‐ $875 $1.16 ‐$1.19 No 6120 Oxboro Ave N. 0 29 ‐ 2BR 897 ‐ 939 $950 ‐ $975 $1.04 ‐ $1.06 Oak Park Heights 0.0%Summit Park Apartments1970 14 14‐1BRNo 2‐story building, open kitchen area, two 14759 62nd Street N 0closets in each unit, on‐site laundry, andStillwater 0%off‐street parking. Residents are responsible for all utilities except trash.Stillwater Crossing Apts.1969 45 22 ‐ 1BR 520 ‐600 $740 ‐ $750 $1.42 ‐$1.44 No 14843‐7 60th St. N 1 23 ‐ 2BR 680 ‐ 700 $840 ‐ $850 $1.21 ‐ $1.24 Stillwater 2.2%Stonebridge Apartments1967 36 36‐2BR $875 ‐ $925 $1.09 ‐$1.16 NoSecured building, screened balconies,1203‐1207 North Owens Street 0hardwood floors, playground, and extra Stillwater 0.0%storage if needed.Lily Lake Terrace Apts1970 27 2 ‐ StudioNo Updates in each apartment, off‐street 1410 Greeley Street South 0 12 ‐ 1BR 655 ‐ 719 $785 ‐ $800 $1.11 ‐ $1.20parking ($40/mo), laundry services, swimmingStillwater 0.0% 13 ‐ 2BR 792 ‐ 805 $875 ‐ $925 $1.10 ‐ $1.15 pool; Rent includes heat, water, sewer and trash.Stillwater Market Area Totals 323 2 0.6%$1.00Unit Mix Unit Size Rent Square FootTABLE R‐5MARKET‐RATE GENERAL OCCUPANCY RENTAL DEVELOPMENT SURVEY RESPONSESWASHINGTON COUNTY$975713 $800725 $1,050 $1.45713 $800 $1.12$0.97$850 Two split‐level 4‐plexes; rent includes heat; tenant pays electric; off‐street parking; wall unit A/C; coin‐op laundry; storage.868550 $725$1.12Single‐level units with private entrance; attached garages & detached; tenants pay electricity, cable & phone; wall‐unit A/C sleeves; W/D hook‐ups; disposals. Orleans Homes has 93 additional affordable units.$975Single‐level units with private entrance; attached garages & detached; Cottages of Stillwater has 36 additional affordable units.Rent includes one detached garage; tenant pays electric, cable & phone; A/C; coin‐op laundry; dishwasher; disposal; storage; playground; outdoor pool.$750733$1.12750$1.32 Heat included in rent; tenant pays electric & phone; off‐street parking; wall‐unit A/C; coin‐op laundry; disposal; dishwasher.900 $875Three buildings; rent includes heat; tenant pays electric and phone; detached garages; wall‐unit A/C; coin‐op laundry; storage bins.800580 $710 $1.22CONTINUEDGarages, storage lockers, Underground Parking, Water, Sewer, Garbage Included in the rent. Curve Crest has 32 additional affordable units. Heated UG parking $65/month.January 2017(continued)Monthly Rent per
RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 175 Year Units/AcceptProperty Name/Location Built VacantVouchers Amenities/CommentsWOODBURY AREAUptown at City Walk2011 245 64 ‐1BR 810 ‐955 $1,329 ‐ $1,539 $1.61 ‐ $1.64 No Private balconies, fireplace, fitness center,10300 Citywalk Drive 8 32 ‐1BR/D $1,502 ‐ $1,572 $1.38 ‐$1.44 business center, heated parking garage, Woodbury 3.3% 119 ‐2BR 1,115 ‐1,421 $1,545 ‐ $1,905 $1.34 ‐ $1.39 carwash bay, alarm systems included, 30 ‐2BR/D $1,989 ‐ $2,049 $1.29 ‐$1.33 washer/dryer in‐unit. Offering specials.Crown Villa Apartments2010 126 66 ‐1BR $1,129 ‐ $1,189 $1.50 ‐$1.57 No Granite counter‐tops, stainless steel 7260 Guider Drive 2 12 ‐1BR/D $1,259 ‐ $1,279 $1.41 ‐$1.43 washer and dryer; vaulted ceilings; fitnessWoodbury 1.6% 24 ‐2BR $1,419 ‐ $1,484 $1.27 ‐$1.33 center; storage units; covered parking;24 ‐2BR/D $1,529 ‐ $1,619 $1.21 ‐$1.28 secured entry.Parkwood Estates2009 39 39 ‐ 2BR $1,210 ‐ $1,235 $1.15 ‐$1.18 Yes Tenant pays electricity, gas, and heat.1580 Parkwood Drive 0Natural woodwork and cabinets, walk‐inWoodbury 0%closets; large balconies, library, elevator, fitness center, and yoga room.Regency Hill Apts2008 38 1 1BRNo One level condo style apartments; central 10751 Retreat Lane 0 3 1BR/D $1,244 ‐ $1,319 $1.16 ‐$1.23 air; full size washer and dryer; undergroundWoodbury 0.0% 30 2BR 1,138 ‐ 1,231 $1,404 ‐ $1,534 $1.23 ‐ $1.25 garage; balcony; fireplace; 9 foot ceilings.42BR/DThe Flats @ City Walk2005 208 51 ‐1BR 771 ‐ 967 $1,259 ‐ $1,479 $1.53 ‐ $1.63 No Central air; breakfast bar in some units;10215 CityWalk Drive 12 6 ‐1BR/D 1,085 ‐ 1,085 $1,359 ‐ $1,849 $1.25 ‐ $1.70video library; indoor virtual golf; swimmingWoodbury 5.8% 91 ‐2BR 1,143 ‐ 1,385 $1,349 ‐ $1,891 $1.18 ‐ $1.37 pool; sauna; billiards, and built‐in38 ‐2BR/D 1,505 ‐ 1,852 $1,845 ‐ $1,985 $1.07 ‐ $1.23 entertainment centers.12 ‐3BR 1,515 ‐ 1,852 $1,949 ‐ $2,113 $1.14 ‐ $1.2910 ‐3BR/D 1,838 ‐ 1,838 $2,113 ‐ $2,113 $1.15 ‐ $1.15Westview Estates1999 60 60 ‐2BR TH 1,240 ‐ 1,240 $1,235 ‐ $1,295 $1.00 ‐ $1.04 Yes2549 Cornelia Trail 1Woodbury 0%Grand Reserve @1999 394 50 ‐1BR 765 ‐ 907 $1,318 ‐ $1,696 $1.72 ‐ $1.87 NoEagle Valley9 50 ‐1BR/D 1,070 ‐ 1,070 $1,429 ‐ $1,524 $1.34 ‐ $1.4210285 Grand Forest Lane 2.3% 100 ‐2BR 1,070 ‐ 1,365 $1,290 ‐ $1,804 $1.21‐ $1.32Woodbury 48 ‐2BR TH 1,440 ‐ 1,440 $1,911 ‐ $1,911 $1.33 ‐ $1.33122 ‐3BR TH 1,455 ‐ 1,825 $1,832 ‐ $2,004 $1.10 ‐ $1.2624 ‐4BR TH 1,811 ‐ 1,811 $2,161 ‐ $2,183 $1.19 ‐ $1.21The Barrington1999 282 132 ‐1BR 755 ‐ 755 $1,225 ‐ $1,225 $1.62 ‐ $1.62 No7255 Guider Drive 12 39 ‐1BRD 894 ‐ 927 $1,275 ‐ $1,295 $1.40 ‐ $1.43Woodbury 4.3% 84 ‐2BR 1,115 ‐ 1,127 $1,450 ‐ $1,470 $1.30 ‐ $1.30 27 ‐2BRD 1,265 ‐ 1,265 $1,500 ‐ $1,530 $1.19 ‐ $1.21Woodbury Park @ City Centre1998 224 44 ‐1BR TH 851 ‐ 933 $1,250 ‐ $1,817 $1.47 ‐ $1.95 No2150 Vinings Drive 6 144 ‐2BR TH 1,150 ‐ 1,361 $1,380 ‐ $2,368 $1.20 ‐ $1.74Woodbury 2.7% 36 ‐3BR TH 1,812 ‐ 1,823 $2,065 ‐ $3,491 $1.14 ‐ $1.91Carver Lake Townhomes1998 124 72 ‐2BR TH 1,450 ‐ 1,450 $1,695 ‐ $1,735 $1.17 ‐ $1.20 No6201 Tahoe Rd 2 52 ‐3BR TH 1,400 ‐ 2,100 $1,585 ‐ $2,030 $0.97 ‐ $1.13Woodbury 1.6%TABLE R‐5MARKET‐RATE GENERAL OCCUPANCY RENTAL DEVELOPMENT SURVEY RESPONSESWASHINGTON COUNTYJanuary 2017(continued)Monthly Rent perUnit Mix Unit Size Rent Square Foot1,0881,5411,050Tenant pays utilities; Trash Removal included in rent central air; double‐car attached garage; in‐unit W/D; microwave oven; mini‐blinds; oak woodwork; Tenant pays heat and electricity; attached single‐and double‐car garage included in rent; clubhouse with outdoor pool, sauna, business center, concierge services, exercise room, tanning bed; 9' ceilings; roman tubs.7558941,1151,265869 $1,234 $1.421,0691,596 $1,599 $1.00Formerly known as Classic@ The Preserve. Central air; one underground parking; in‐unit washer and dryer; large clubhouse w/outdoor pool, sauna, community room, business/conference ctr.; exercise rooms.Tenant pays heat and electricity; central air; attached garage; in‐unit laundry, microwave, walk‐in closets; in‐unit storage; outdoor pool; exercise area; community room.Rent includes heat; tenant pays electric & phone; detached garages; A/C; laundry; dishwashers (2BR only); storage ; playground.CONTINUED
RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 176 Year Units/AcceptProperty Name/Location Built VacantVouchers Amenities/CommentsWOODBURY AREA (continued)Courtly Park1989 76 68 ‐2BR TH 1,207 ‐ 1,412 $1,250‐$1,350 $0.96 ‐ $1.04 Yes2303 Cypress Drive 0 8 ‐3BR TH 1,687 ‐ 1,687 $0.92 ‐ $0.92Woodbury 0.0%Valley Creek1988 402 131 ‐1BR 767 ‐ 820 $1,150 ‐ $2,975 $1.50 ‐ $3.63 No1707 Century Avenue 30 256 ‐2BR 1,003 ‐ 1,245 $1,270 ‐ $3,626 $1.27 ‐ $2.91Woodbury 7.5% 15 ‐3BR 1,311 ‐ 1,426 $1,580 ‐ $4,035 $1.21 ‐ $2.83Woodlane Place TH1988 242 53 ‐2BR TH $1,225 ‐ $1,250 $1.01 ‐$1.04 No2187 Cypress Drive 0 176 ‐2BR TH $1,295 ‐ $1,350 $0.92 ‐$0.96Woodbury 0.0% 13 ‐3BR TH $1,595 ‐ $1,625 $0.95 ‐$0.96Seasons Villas1987 214 47 ‐2BR TH No8630 Summer Wind Alcove 1 167 ‐2BR TH $1,305 ‐ $1,395 $1.13 ‐$1.20Woodbury 0.5%Woodland Pointe1973 288 96 ‐1BR 750 ‐ 793 $899 ‐ $994 $1.20 ‐ $1.25 Yes6850 Ashwood Rd. 6 192 ‐2BR 950 ‐ 981 $1,014 ‐ $1,139 $1.07 ‐ $1.16Woodbury 2.1%Woodmere1972 184 8 ‐EFF 435 ‐ 435 $749 ‐ $789 $1.72 ‐ $1.81 No6940 Woodmere Rd. 10 49 ‐1BR 658 ‐ 658 $869 ‐ $909 $1.32 ‐ $1.38Woodbury 5.4% 31 ‐1BR/D 742 ‐ 742 $899 ‐ $939 $1.21 ‐ $1.2757 ‐2BR 934 ‐ 934 $1,049 ‐ $1,089 $1.12 ‐ $1.1719 ‐2BR/D 1,018 ‐ 1,018 $1,079 ‐ $1,119 $1.06 ‐ $1.1020 ‐3BR 1,038 ‐ 1,038 $1,229 ‐ $1,269 $1.18 ‐ $1.22Woodbury Market Area Totals 3,146 99 3.1%Total of All Market Rate GO 5,817 133 2.3%**Vacancy Rate excludes properties that did not participate in rental survey.Sources: Washington County; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLCHeat included in rent; detached garages; wall‐unit air; large clubhouse area with indoor pool; party room; spa; fitness center; play area for children; saunas; outdoor volleyball; barbeque area; game room.960 $1,295 $1.35 Tenant pays all utilities including water, sewer and trash removal; all units include an attached single‐car garage; pets are allowed w/some restrictions. Units include both single‐level and two‐level designs w/ walk‐in closets, in‐unit washer/dryer central air.1,160Heat included in rent; detached garages; wall‐unit air; concrete floors for sound control; ceramic tile floors in bathroom; common area laundry; indoor and outdoor pools; saunas; exercise room; & whirlpool; spacious party room.Tenant pays heat and electricity; attached single‐car garage included in rent; pets allowed with extra deposit and weight restrictions; washer/dryer in each unit; walk‐in closets; vaulted ceilings; fireplaces in some units; built‐in microwave; central air; playground area for children.$1,550Rent includes heat; tenant pays electric; one underground parking stall included; bay windows; pets allowed with weight restrictions and extra pet deposit; party room; outdoor pool, whirlpool; exercise room in each building; vaulted ceilings in 4th floor units. 1,207 Tenant pays all utilities; single‐car garage included in rent; features include in‐unit washer/dryers, walk‐in closets; vaulted ceilings and fireplaces in some units. Outdoor pool and tennis court available. 1,4121,687WASHINGTON COUNTYJanuary 2017(continued)Monthly Rent perUnit Mix Unit Size Rent Square FootTABLE R‐5MARKET‐RATE GENERAL OCCUPANCY RENTAL DEVELOPMENT SURVEY RESPONSES
RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 177
Year Units/
Property Name/Location Built Vacant Amenities/Comments
COTTAGE GROVE AREA
Woodland Park 1989 180 60 ‐1BR
7920 Heathside Ave. S 2 56 ‐2BR 1,017 ‐1,070 $0.86 ‐ $0.90
Cottage Grove 1% 48 ‐ 2BR TH
Owend by CDA 16 ‐3BR TH
The Groves 1986 68 68 ‐3BR
7752 Hemingway Ave. Remodel 2
Cottage Grove 2014 2.9%
LIHTC
Park Place I and II 1963 42 7 ‐1BR 466 ‐625 $1.00 ‐ $1.33
300 Pullman Ave 2 35 ‐2BR
St. Paul Park 4.8%
Owned by CDA
Market Area Totals 290 6 2.1%
Woodmount Townhomes 1980 50 16 ‐2BR TH
8815 90th St S 0 30 ‐3BR TH
Cottage Grove 0.0% 4 ‐ 4BR TH
Section 8
Market Area Totals 50 0 0.0%
FOREST LAKE
Forest Oak Apartments 2012/ 72 36 ‐2BR Controlled access, extra storage,
19830 Forest RD N 2016 1 36 ‐3BR and dryer in each unit. Playground
Forest Lake 1.4%attached garage included with rent.
LIHTC
Forest Ridge Townhomes 2007 38 14 ‐2BR 1,287 ‐1,382 $0.74 ‐ $0.80 Tenant pays everything except
1246 4th Street SE 0 24 ‐3BR water/sewer. Attached garage,
Forest Lake 0.0%closet, W/D in each unit, central air.
LIHTC
Autumn Hills 1992 48 2 ‐1BR
706 12th St. SW 0 34 ‐2BR
Forest Lake 0.0% 12 ‐ 3BR
LIHTC
Seven Pines Apts 1990 72 24 ‐1BR $800 ‐$850 $1.28 ‐$1.36
1243‐67 11th Ave. SW 0 48 ‐2BR 695 ‐742 $900 ‐$950 $1.28 -$1.37
Forest Lake 0.0%
LIHTC
Market Area Totals 230 1 0.4%
Westridge Townhomes 1980 42 42 ‐3BR TH
848 12th St. SW 0
Forest Lake 0.0%
Section 8
West View Apartments 1977 16 14 ‐2BR
658 SW 12th Street 0 2 ‐3BR
Forest Lake 0.0%
Section 8
Market Area Totals 58 0 0.0%
TABLE R‐6
AFFORDABLE/SUBSIDIZED GENERAL OCCUPANCY RENTAL PROPERTIES
WASHINGTON COUNTY
January 2017
Contract Rent/ Rent per
Unit Mix Unit Size Rent Range Square Foot
Affordable
762 $788 $1.03 Restricted to households at 80% of
AMI. This property is owned by the
Washington County CDA.
$917
1,090 $957 $0.88
1,278 $1,161 $0.91
Formerly Parkside Apartments950 $884 $0.93
$622 Restricted to households at 80% of
AMI. This property is owned by the
Washington County CDA.
660 $686 $1.04
Subsidized
882 Tenants pay 30% of AGI; waiting list of
1 yr Profile: families with children.1,313 $1,115 $0.85
1,625 $1,245 $0.77
$895 $1.01
Affordable
758 $755 $1.00 Income restrictions at 60% AMI. Wide
mix of senior and familes with
children.
954 $875 $0.92
1,350 $980 $0.73
624 Formerly known as Hillcrest Apts. New
Ownership as of 2011. Wide mix of
residents.
$1,025
1,491 $1,135 $0.76
925 870 $0.94
1,238 999 $0.81
Subsidized
1,558 $958 $0.61 Tenants pay 30% of AGI.
1,000 $766 $0.77 Tenants pay 30% of AGI.
1,200 $985 $0.82
CONTINUED
RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 178
Year Units/
Property Name/Location Built Vacant Amenities/Comments
MAHTOMEDI/GRANT AREA
Woodland Townhomes 1998 30 30 ‐ 3BR TH
947 Woodland Dr. 0
Mahtomedi 0.0%
LIHTC
Market Area Totals 30 0 0.0%
Lincoln Place Apts 1979 48 30 ‐ 2BR
850 Stillwater Rd 0 18 ‐3BR
Mahtomedi 0.0%
Section 8
Market Area Totals 48 0 0.0%
OAKDALE
Arbors at Red Oak 2008 29 19 ‐ 2BR 972 ‐ 975
4980 Hamlet Ave. N 0 10 ‐ 3BR 1,192 ‐ 1,206
Oakdale 0.0%
LIHTC
Briar Pond 1991 196 90 ‐ 1BR 726 ‐ 738 $1.15 ‐$1.17
1591 Granada Ave. N 0 74 ‐ 2BR 986 ‐ 1,008 $957 ‐$1,037 $0.97 -$1.05
Oakdale 0.0% 24 ‐ 2BR TH
Owned by CDA 8‐3BR TH
Geneva Village 1970/ 175 115 ‐ 1BR
6040 40th St. N R1997 0 60 ‐ 2BR
Oakdale 0.0%
LIHTC
Oakdale Village Apts.1970 175 30 ‐ Eff. $0.00 ‐$1.54
1213 Gentry Ave. N R1994 2 85 ‐ 1BR $0.00 ‐$1.16
Oakdale 1.1% 60 ‐ 2BR $0.00 ‐$0.98
LIHTC
Market Area Totals 575 2 0.3%
Waterford Townhomes 1979 31 25 ‐ 2BR TH $894 ‐$1,034 $1.12 ‐$1.29
1531 Hallmark Circle 0 6 ‐ 3BR TH $1,136 ‐$1,198 $1.20 ‐$1.26
Oakdale 0.0%
Section 8
Granada Lakes TH 1976 68 68 ‐ 3BR TH
3915 Granada Way N 0
Oakdale 1.4%
Section 8
Century North Apts.1972 177 70 ‐ 1BR
4131 Geneva Ave. 0 107 ‐ 2BR 937 ‐ 971 $0.75 ‐$0.78
Oakdale 0.0%
Section 8
Gentry Townhomes 1971 48 48 ‐ 3BR
1353 Gentry Ave. N 0
Oakdale 0.0%
Section 8
Market Area Totals 324 0 0.0%
$599
$725
$875
CONTINUED
682 $619 $0.91 Tenants pay 30% of AGI; Profile:
sizable number of working couples;
some families with children;
remodeled in 2016 with LIHTC funding.
$727
1,200 $1,130 $0.94 Tenants pay 30% of AGI; Profile:
mostly families with young children.
Subsidized
800 Tenants pay 30% of AGI; Profile: single
mothers with children; some couples.950
1,280 $1,250 $0.98 Private entrances; 4‐level units; tenant
pays electric & heat; 1 car attached
garage included in rent; central A/C;
W/D.
390 Heat included in rent; detached
garage; coin‐op laundry. 25% of
residents on Section 8 voucher.
625
890
$849 Restricted to households at 80% of
AMI. This property is owned by the
CDA.1,054 $1,066 $1.01
1,237
Affordable
$1,219 $0.99
$880 n/a Washer/dryer in‐unit, community
room, playground, and underground
parking.
$101 n/a
625 $720 $1.15 Heat included in rent; wall‐unit A/C;
some dishwashers; coin‐op laundry;
detached garage; playground/picnic
area; storage.
900 $820 $0.91
Subsidized
827 $1,021 $1.23 Formerly known as Diamond Estates.
Profile: families with young children.
Tenants pay 30% of AGI.
992 $1,437 $1.45
Affordable
1,322 $1,015 $0.77 Heat paid by tenant; attached garage
included; in‐unit W/D.
January 2017
(continued)
Contract Rent/ Rent per
Unit Mix Unit Size Rent Range Square Foot
TABLE R‐6
AFFORDABLE/SUBSIDIZED GENERAL OCCUPANCY RENTAL PROPERTIES
WASHINGTON COUNTY
RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 179
Year Units/
Property Name/Location Built Vacant Amenities/Comments
STILLWATER
Curve Crest Villas 2003 32 1 ‐1BR
2225 W. Orleans St. n/a 7 ‐2BR
Stillwater 24 ‐3BR
LIHTC
Long Lake Villas 2000 21 14 ‐2BR
Long Lake Drive n/a 7 ‐ 3BR
Stillwater
LIHTC
St. Croix Village 1996 20 19 ‐3BR No current waiting list. Tenant
1677 Orlean St. 1 1 ‐4BR profile: mostly families.
Stillwater 5.0%
LIHTC
Cottages of Stillwater 1991 36 36 ‐2BR 693 ‐ 869 $800 ‐ $950 $1.09 -$1.37
2210 Cottage Dr. 0
Stillwater 0.0%
LIHTC
Orleans Homes 1986 93 53 ‐1BR
1401 Cottage Dr. 1 40 ‐2BR 813 ‐868 $1.12 ‐ $1.19
Stillwater 1.1%
LIHTC
Brick Pond Apartments 1985 40 10 ‐Eff.
1635 S. Greeley St. 1 3 ‐ 1BR
Stillwater 2.5% 27 ‐2BR
Owned by CDA
Market Area Totals 242 3 1.2%
Charter Oaks TH's 1982 60 3 ‐1BR
1198 Curve Crest Blvd. 0 35 ‐2BR $932 ‐ $934
Stillwater 0.0% 20 ‐3BR
Section 8 2‐4BR
Victoria Villa 1979 40 13 ‐1BR 710 ‐ 720
1451 S. Greeley St. 0 27 ‐2BR
Stillwater 0.0%
Section 8
Birchwood TH Apts.1974 51 11 ‐1BR
14840 62nd St. N 0 24 ‐2BR
Stillwater 0.0% 16 ‐3BR
Section 8
Raymie Johnson Estates 1971 24 14 ‐2BR TH
14830 58th St N 0 10 ‐3BR TH
Oak Park Heights 0.0%
Section 8
Market Area Totals 175 0 0.0%
TABLE R‐6
$601 $1.37 Restricted to households at 80% of
AMI. This property is owned by the
Washington County CDA.
660
AFFORDABLE/SUBSIDIZED GENERAL OCCUPANCY RENTAL PROPERTIES
WASHINGTON COUNTY
January 2017
(continued)
Contract Rent/ Rent per
$1.02
967 $1,150 $1.19
1,500 $1,225 $0.82
713
Unit Mix Unit Size Rent Range Square Foot
Affordable
440
Restricted to households at 60% of
AMI.
728 $900 $1.24 Garages, storage lockers, underground
parking; water, sewer, trash included
in the rent. Heated UG parking for
$60/month.
1,074 $1,150 $1.07
1,245 $1,200 $0.96
Attached garage, washer and dryer in‐
unit, storage area, playground, and
spacious floor plans.
1,140 $1,200 $1.05
1,250 $1,200 $0.96
$800 $1.12 Single‐level units w/private entrance;
attached garages & detached; tenants
pay electricity, cable & phone; wA/C
sleeves; W/D hook‐ups; 26 units are
affordable to accommodate qualified
residents with Sec. 8 vouchers.
$970
$716 $1.08
810 $830
Subsidized
840 $750 $0.89 Tenants pay 30% of AGI; Profile:
mostly families, single mothers.1,080 $0.86
1,260 $1,018 $0.81
1,700 $1,130 $0.66
n/a n/a Tenants pay 30% of AGI; Profile:
families. 820 n/a n/a
750 $487 $0.65 Tenants pay 30% of AGI; Profile:
mostly single mothers with children &
some families.
1,000 $585 $0.59
1,300 $675 $0.52
1,500 $721 $0.48 Tenants pay 30% of AGI; Profile:
mostly single‐parent families. This
property is owned by the CDA.
1,680 $763 $0.45
CONTINUED
RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 180
Year Units/
Property Name/Location Built Vacant Amenities/Comments
WOODBURY AREA
Sienna Ridge Townhomes 2008 41 20 ‐ 2BR Resident pays everything except
11086 Cresthaven Trail 0 21 ‐3BR 1,500 ‐1,516 $0.78 ‐$0.78 water/sewer. Attached garage,
Woodbury 0.0%playground, central air, patio.
LIHTC
Pond View Townhomes 2007 40 19 ‐ 2BR TH 961 ‐ 1,055 $1,020 ‐$1,175 $1.06 -$1.22
431‐G Woodduck Place 0 16 ‐ 3BR TH $1,235 ‐$1,450 $1.04 ‐$1.22
Woodbury 0.0% 5 ‐ 4BR TH $1,400 ‐$1,600 $0.95 ‐$1.08
LIHTC
Lakeside Townhomes 2001 40 15 ‐ 2BR TH 979 ‐ 1,167 $0.77 ‐$0.92
10381 Hudson Road 0 15 ‐ 3BR TH 1,352 ‐ 1,352 $0.89 ‐$0.89
Woodbury 0.0% 10 ‐ 4BR TH 1,932 ‐ 1,932 $1,370 ‐$1,600 $0.71 -$0.83
LIHTC
Ashwood Ponds 1996 36 6 ‐ 1BR $699 ‐$720 $1.02 ‐$1.05
6725 Ashwood Rd. 3 20 ‐ 2BR $799 ‐$820 $0.89 ‐$0.91
Woodbury 8.3% 10 ‐ 3BR $999 ‐$1,040 $0.91 ‐$0.95
LIHTC
Market Area Totals 157 3 1.9%
Total of All Deep/Shallow 2,179 15 0.6%*
*Vacancy Rate excludes 2 properties that did not provide vacancy rate in rental survey.
**Washington County CDA also managers 56 scattered site units throughout Washington County. To be eligible for these units, residents must have incomes at or below
50% AMI and pay 30% of their adjusted monthly income toward rent and utilities.
Source: Washington County CDA; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
685 Three story building with tuck‐under
garages on one side. Laundry room on
floor is the only common area. Some
residents receive Section 8 vouchers.
900
1,100
Affordable
$900 Tenants pay heat and electric;
attached garage incl. in rent; in‐unit
W/D; four units will be market rate‐
and four will be Hollman Units.
$1,199
1,370 $1,045 $0.76
$1,175
Affordable at 50% and 60% of AMI. 5
units are market rate.1,191
Contract Rent/ Rent per
1,479
Unit Mix Unit Size Rent Range Square Foot
TABLE R‐6
AFFORDABLE/SUBSIDIZED GENERAL OCCUPANCY RENTAL PROPERTIES
WASHINGTON COUNTY
January 2017
(continued)
RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 181
RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 182
Projects Air ConditioningDishwasherPatio/BalconyWalk‐in ClosetLaundryElevatorCommunity RoomFitness CenterPlaygroundPoolExtra Storage SpaceHeat/GasElectricityWater/SewerTrashCableParkingParking Fee (per month)Hinton Heights Y YYYYNYYYYY LTLLT DG
Glen Woods Y YYY YNNNNNN TTLLT AG
Grove Ridge Y Y Y Y Y N N N Y Y Y L T T T T DG
Mark Court Apartments Y Y N N Y N N N N Y N L T L L T DG
Newport Ponds Y Y Y N Y N N N Y N N L T L L T DG
1340 8th Ave Y n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a O
Belz Apartments Y n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a O
Emer Properties Y n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a O
1108 5th St. Y n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a O
Park Place Y NNN Y NNNNNN T T LLT O
Arbor Ridge Y YYY YYYYNNY TTTTT UG $55
Mill Pond II Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y L T L L T UG $45
Mill Pond Forest Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N N Y L T L L T UG $50
Maple Court Y Y N Y Y N N N N N N L T L L T AG $45
Pineridge Apartments Y YYY YNNNNNN TTTTT DG
Pine Forest Y Y N N Y N N N N N Y L T L L T DG
Alpine North Y Y N Y Y N N N N N Y L T L L T DG $40
Alpine South Y Y N Y Y N N N N N Y L T L L T DG $40
Northshore Apts Y Y Y Y Y N N N Y N Y L T L L T DG, O
Village Apartments Y Y N Y Y N N N Y Y Y L T L L T DG
Forest Park II Apts Y YNYYNYYYNY LLLLT DG
956 Place Y YYYYYNNNNY LLLLT DG
Forest Park I Apts Y YNNYNYYYYY LTLLT DG
844 4th Street Y Y Y N Y N N N N N Y L T L L T O
Cedric's Landing West Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y T T T L T AG, DG
Gentry Apartments Y Y Y Y Y N N N Y N Y L T L L T DG
East Gate Apts Y YYN YNNNNY Y LTLLT DG
Ridgecrest Apts Y Y Y N Y N N N N N N L T L L T DG
Minnehaha Manor Y Y N N Y N N N Y Y Y L T L L T O
Note: Y=Available, N=Not Available; I=Included; L=Landlord; T=Tenant
In Unit/Common Area Amenities Utilities and Parking
Market Rate Rental
CA=Central Air; W=Wall unit air; S=Some units; DG=Detached Garage; UG=Underground; AG=Attached Garage; O=Offstreet; IU=In‐unit; HU=Hook‐
ups; C=Common
CONTINUED
TABLE R‐7
COMMON AREA FEATURES/AMENITIES
EXISTING RENTAL PROPERTIES
WASHINGTON COUNTY
JANUARY 2017
RENTAL HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 183
Projects Air ConditioningDishwasherPatio/BalconyWalk‐in ClosetLaundryElevatorCommunity RoomFitness CenterPlaygroundPoolExtra Storage SpaceHeat/GasElectricityWater/SewerTrashCableParkingParking Fee (per month)Mallard Shores Y Y N N Y N N N N N N L T L L T O
Cottages of Stillwater Y Y N N Y N N N N N Y L T L L T AG
Orleans Homes Y Y N Y IU N N N N N N L T L L T DG
Oak Park Heights Apts Y Y N N Y N N N N Y Y L T L L T
605 Stillwater Rd Y Y N N Y N N N N N N L T L L T O
Colonial Apartments Y Y N N Y N N N N N N L T L L T O
Summit Park Apts Y YNN Y NNNNNN TTTL T O
St. Croix Crossings Apts Y Y N N Y N N N N N N L T L L T O
StoneBridge Apartments Y Y Y N Y N N N Y N Y L T L L T
Lily Lake Terrace Apts Y N Y N Y N N Y N Y N T T L L T O
Curve Crest Villas Y Y Y N Y Y Y N N N Y T T L L T UG $35
Uptown at City Walk Y Y Y Y IU Y Y Y N Y Y L T L L T Ramp $50
Parkwood Estates Y YYY YNNNNNN TTLLT AG
Flats at City Walk Y Y Y Y IU Y Y Y N Y Y L T L L T Ramp $50
Westview Estates Y YYY YNNNNNN TTTLT AG
Grand Reserve Y YYYIUNYYYYN LTLLT AG
Crown Villa Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N N Y T T L L T UG
Regency Hill Y YYY YYYYNNY TTTTT UG
Barrington Apartments Y YYY YYYYYYY TTTTL UG
Woodbury Park @City Centre Y Y Y Y IU N Y Y Y Y N L T L L T AG
Carver Lake Townhomes Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y L T L L T AG
Courtly Park Townhomes Y Y Y Y IU N Y N Y N N T T L L T AG
Valley Creek Apts Y YYY YYYNYYY LTLLT UG
Woodlane Place Y YYY YNYNYYN TTTTT AG
Seasons Villas Y Y Y Y Y N Y N Y N N T T T T T AG
Woodland Pointe Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N L T L L T DG
Woodmere Apts Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y L T L L T DG
TABLE R‐7 Continued
COMMON AREA FEATURES/AMENITIES
EXISTING RENTAL PROPERTIES
WASHINGTON COUNTY
JANUARY 2017
In Unit/Common Area Amenities Utilities and Parking
Market Rate Rental
CONTINUED
RENTAL HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 184
Projects Air ConditioningDishwasherPatio/BalconyWalk‐in ClosetLaundryElevatorCommunity RoomFitness CenterPlaygroundPoolExtra Storage SpaceHeat/GasElectricityWater/SewerTrashCableParkingParking Fee (per month)Woodland Park Y Y Y N IU Y Y Y N N Y L T L L T UG, AG
The Groves Y YYNYYYYYNY TTLLT AG
Park Place I and II Y Y N N Y Y Y N N N N T T L L T O
Woodmount Townhomes Y YYY YNNNYNN LTLLT DG
Autumn Hills Apartments Y Y Y Y Y N N N Y N N L T L L T O
Forest Ridge Townhomes Y YYY YNNNNNY TTLTT AG
Seven Pines Apts Y YYNYNYYYNY LLLLT O
Forest Oak Apts Y YNNYNNNYNN LLLLT AG
Westridge Townhomes Y Y N N Y N N N N N N T T T T T na
Westview Apartments Y YNNYNNNNNN LLLLT
Woodland TH‐Mahtomedi Y YYY YNNNNNN TLLLT AG
Lincoln Place Apts Y YNNYNYNYNN LLLLT
Geneva Village Apts Y Y N N Y N N N N N Y L T L T T DG $50
Oakdale Village Apts Y Y N N Y N N N Y N Y L T L L T DG, O $50
Briar Pond Y Y Y N Y N Y Y N N Y L T L L T UG,DG
Waterford Townhomes Y YNNYNNNYNN LTLLT DG
Granada Lakes TH Y Y N N Y N N N N N Y L T L L T AG
Century North Apts Y Y Y N Y N N N Y N N L T L L T O
Gentry TH Y YYY YNNYYNY LTLLT DG $45
Brick Pond Apartments Y Y Y Y Y Y N N N N N L T L L T UG
Arbors at Red Oak Y YNNYNYNYNN TTLLT UG
Cottages of Stillwater Y Y N N Y N N N N N Y L T L L T AG
Curve Crest Villas Y Y Y N Y Y Y N N N Y T T L L T UG $35
Long Lake Villas Y YNNIUNNNYNY TTLLT O
St. Croix Village Y Y Y N Y N N N Y N N T T L L T AG
Orleans Homes Y YNYIUNNNNNN LTLLT DG
Charter Oaks TH Y YNNYNNNYNN TTLLT O
Victoria Villa Y Y N N Y N Y N Y N N L T L L T O
Birchwood Apts Y Y N Y Y N N N Y N Y L T L L T DG
Raymie Johnson Estates Y YNNYNNNNNN TTTTT DG
Lakeside TH Y YYY YNNNNNY TTLLT AG
Pondview TH Y YYY YNNNNNY TTLLT AG
Sienna Ridge TH Y YYNYNNNYNN TTLLT AG
Ashwood Ponds Y Y N Y Y N N N N N Y L T L L T AG, DG
Note: Y=Available, N=Not Available; I=Included; L=Landlord; T=Tenant
TABLE R‐7 Continued
COMMON AREA FEATURES/AMENITIES
EXISTING RENTAL DEVELOPMENT SURVEY RESPONSES
WASHINGTON COUNTY
Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
JANUARY 2017
In Unit/Common Area Amenities Utilities and Parking
Affordable/ Subsidized
CA=Central Air; W=Wall unit air; S=Some units; DG=Detached Garage; UG=Underground; AG=Attached Garage; O=Offstreet; IU=In‐unit; HU=Hook‐
ups; C=Common
*Note: Some properties on Table R‐5 and Table R‐6 were unable to verify amenities on the phone. Maxfield Research has updated most of the
remaining properties from information listed on their website. Some information was not available online.
RENTAL HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 185
RENTAL HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 186
Affordable/Subsidized
A total of 34 income‐restricted rental properties (affordable/subsidized) were identified in
Washington County with 2,179 units. Of the properties that provided information for the
survey, a total of 15 units was vacant for a vacancy rate of 0.6%.
Typically, affordable and subsidized rental properties are able to maintain vacancy rates of
3% or less in most housing markets due to high demand and limited supply. The low vacan‐
cy rates in Washington County indicate pent‐up demand for affordable and subsidized units
and also indicate the current economic climate in the area.
An estimated 39% of the affordable/subsidized inventory was constructed in the 1970s.
Twenty percent of the inventory was built in the 1990s and 24.5% in the 1980s. Since 2000,
there have been eight new rental properties built in Washington County with 313 units
(14% of the affordable/subsidized inventory identified).
Since the 2013 update, Forest Oak Apartments added 36 units to their property for a total
of 72 units. The newest developments remain: Forest Oak Apartments (2012), Sienna Ridge
(2008), Arbors at Red Oak (2008) and Pondview Townhomes (2007). Combined, they ac‐
count for 146 units. Demand for affordable housing remains evident by the consistently
low vacancy rate. In 2007, all affordable/subsidized units had a 6.4% vacancy rate com‐
pared to 0.6% in 2013 and 0.6% in 2017.
72
241
438
533
853
42
1
777
10
1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2010s 2000s 1990s 1980s 1970s 1960s # of ProjectsUnitsYear Built
Washington County Affordable/Subsidized Rental Stock
(Year Built)
Units Projects
RENTAL HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 187
There are 22 affordable rental properties in Washington County that consist of 1,524 units.
As of January 2017, there were 15 vacancies (0.6% vacancy rate). All of the affordable rent‐
al properties have income restrictions which range between 50% to 80% of Area Median
Income (AMI). Affordable rental developments are typically financed through the Low In‐
come Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) program, sometimes referred to as the Section 42 program
after the section of the IRS Code governing the LIHTC program. The maximum income limit
for residency at LIHTC properties established by HUD and based on 60% of Washington
County median incomes by household size. Current income limits are summarized in Table
R‐8.
The 13 subsidized rental properties comprise 655 units with no vacancies (0.0% vacancy
rate). The properties are a mix of Project‐Based Section 8 and Section 236 developments.
Residents of subsidized units pay a rent equal to 30% of their adjusted gross income (AGI)
and must meet a household income restriction of 50% or less of the AMI.
Table R‐8 shows the maximum allowable incomes by household size to qualify for afforda‐
ble and subsidized housing and maximum gross rents that can be charged by bedroom size
in Washington County. Table R‐8 also shows the Fair Market Rent for Washington County.
Fair Market Rents, established by HUD annually, are housing market‐wide estimates of
rents that provide opportunities to rent standard quality housing throughout the geograph‐
ic area (i.e. Minneapolis‐St. Paul Statistical Area) in which rental housing units are in compe‐
tition. The level at which Fair Market Rents are set is expressed as a percentage point with‐
in the rent distribution of standard quality rental housing units in the area. These figures
are used as a basis for determining the payment standards. Payment Standards are estab‐
lished annually by administering agencies of the Housing Choice Voucher Program to reflect
a modest average rent in their jurisdiction. The Payment Standard is used in the formula to
determine the maximum housing assistance payment.
Subsidized Housing Assistance Program
In addition to project‐based housing assistance, which are subsidies that remain with units at a
specific property, “tenant‐based” subsidies such as Housing Choice Vouchers, can help low
income households find housing in the private market. The tenant‐based subsidy is funded by
the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and is managed by the Washington
County CDA. Under the Housing Choice Voucher program, qualified households are issued a
voucher that the household can take to an apartment that has rent levels within the Payment
Standards set by the administering agency. The household then pays approximately 30% of
their adjusted gross income for rent and utilities and the Federal government pays the remain‐
der of the rent to the landlord. The maximum income limit to be eligible for a Housing Choice
Voucher is 50% of AMI based on household size, as shown in Table R‐8. Of the market‐rate
general occupancy survey respondents, only 11 of the 59 properties indicated that they accept
Housing Choice Vouchers, representing 19% of the market rate properties.
RENTAL HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 188
1 phh 2 phh 3 phh 4 phh 5 phh 6 phh 7 phh 8 phh
30% of median $18,030 $20,610 $23,190 $25,740 $27,810 $29,880 $31,920 $33,990
50% of median $30,050 $34,350 $38,650 $42,900 $46,350 $49,800 $53,200 $56,650
60% of median $36,060 $41,220 $46,380 $51,480 $55,620 $59,760 $63,840 $67,980
80% of median $48,080 $54,960 $61,840 $68,640 $74,160 $79,680 $85,120 $90,640
100% of median $60,100 $68,700 $77,300 $85,800 $92,700 $99,600 $106,400 $113,300
120% of median $72,120 $82,440 $92,760 $102,960 $111,240 $119,520 $127,680 $135,960
EFF 1BR 2BR 3BR 4BR
30% of median $450 $483 $579 $669 $747
50% of median $751 $805 $966 $1,115 $1,245
60% of median $901 $966 $1,159 $1,338 $1,494
80% of median $1,202 $1,374 $1,546 $1,716 $1,854
100% of median $1,502 $1,717 $1,932 $2,145 $2,317
120% of median $1,803 $2,061 $2,319 $2,574 $2,781
EFF 1BR 2BR 3BR 4BR
FMR/Payment Standard $699 $862 $1,086 $1,538 $1,799
Sources: MHFA, HUD, Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Table R‐8
MHFA/HUD INCOME AND RENT LIMITS
WASHINGTON COUNTY ‐ 2017
Income Limits by Household Size
Maximum Gross Rent
Fair Market Rent/Payment Standards
Housing Choice Vouchers
Currently, the CDA administers 469 Housing Choice Vouchers. The county has 90 vouchers
allocated to it. Therefore, the remaining vouchers are ported into the county. Portability
clients are households who hold a Housing Choice Voucher issued from another jurisdiction but
have chosen to live in Washington County. The current wait list for the Housing Choice Voucher
program is 50 households. These households have been on the wait list since 2004, but the
typical turnover per year for Vouchers is two to three households per year. Administering
agencies have been experiencing greater difficulties with being able to fully serve all of the
Vouchers that they are allocated due to federal budget cuts. This year again, there is uncertain‐
ty surrounding the federal budget and amounts that will be allocated to the Housing Choice
Voucher program. With recent cuts, fewer households have been able to be served overall in
the Housing Choice Voucher program.
Unit Months Leased
The Unit Months Leased (UML) leased refers to the number of CDA owned vouchers under
lease. Currently, the Washington County CDA owns 90 vouchers. The 90 vouchers multiplied
by 12 months equals the maximum amount of unit months that the CDA can have in a year
RENTAL HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 189
(1,080). In order to be a high performer under the Section 8 Management Assessment program
(SEMAP), the CDA must use 98% of the available annual UMLs or 98% of its annual budget
authority. Table R‐9 shows the CDA’s performance under the UML program for 2016.
UNIT MOS 98% POTENTIAL
UNIT MOS LEASED MINIMUM TOTAL UNIT MOS
MONTH LEASED TO DATE LEASED LEASED TO DATE
JANUARY 90 90 88 90
FEBRUARY 89 179 176 180
MARCH 89 268 264 270
APRIL 90 258 352 360
MAY 90 448 440 450
JUNE 89 537 528 540
JULY 90 627 616 630
AUGUST 90 717 704 720
SEPTEMBER 90 807 792 810
OCTOBER 89 896 880 900
NOVEMBER 88 984 968 990
DECEMBER 90 1,073 1,056 1,080
Source: Washington County CDA
TABLE R‐9
UNIT MONTHS LEASED (UML)
WASHINGTON COUNTY CDA
CDA OWNED VOUCHERS
2016
SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 190
Senior Housing Defined
The term “senior housing” refers to any housing development that is restricted to people age
55 or age 62 years or older. Today, senior housing includes an entire spectrum of housing
alternatives, which occasionally overlap, thus making the differences somewhat ambiguous.
However, the level of support services offered best distinguishes them. Maxfield Research
classifies senior housing projects into five categories based on the level of support services
offered:
Adult/Few Services; where few, if any, support services are provided, and rents tend to be
modest as a result;
Congregate/Optional‐Services; where support services such as meals and light housekeeping
are available for an additional fee;
Congregate/Service‐Intensive; where support services such as meals and light housekeeping are
included in the monthly rents;
Assisted Living; where two or three daily meals as well as basic support services such as trans‐
portation, housekeeping and/or linen changes are included in the fees. Personal care services
such as assistance with bathing, grooming and dressing is included in the fees or is available
either for an additional fee or included in the rents.
Memory Care; where more rigorous and service‐intensive personal care is required for people
with dementia and Alzheimer’s disease. Typically, support services and meal plans are similar
to those found at assisted living facilities, but heightened levels of personalized care demand
increased staffing and higher monthly fees. Some facilities offer an all‐inclusive monthly fee
where all services are provided regardless of the care needed by the resident.
These five senior housing products tend to share several characteristics. First, they usually offer
individual living apartments with living areas, bathrooms, and kitchens or kitchenettes. Second,
they generally have an emergency response system with pull‐cords or pendants to promote
security. Third, they often have a community room and other common space to encourage
socialization. Finally, they are age‐restricted and offer conveniences desired by seniors, alt‐
hough assisted living and memory care developments sometimes serve non‐elderly people with
special health considerations.
The five senior housing products offered today form a continuum of care (see Figure 1 on the
following page), from a low level to a fairly intensive one; often the service offerings at one
type overlap with those at another. In general, however, adult/few services projects tend to
attract younger, more independent seniors, while assisted living and memory care projects
tend to attract older, frailer seniors.
SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 191
Townhome or
Apartment
Congregate Apartments w/
Intensive Services
Memory Care
(Alzheimer's and
Dementia Units)
Fully
Independent
Lifestyle
Fully or
Highly
Dependent
Senior Housing Product Type
Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
CONTINUUM OF HOUSING AND SERVICES FOR SENIORS
Single‐Family
Home
Congregate Apartments w/
Optional Services Assisted Living Nursing Facilities
Age‐Restricted Independent Single‐
Family, Townhomes, Apartments,
Condominiums, Cooperatives
Senior Housing in Washington County
As of January, 2017, Maxfield Research identified 56 senior housing developments (16 of the
developments have more than one service level and five properties are mixed‐income) in
Washington County. Combined, these developments contain 4,140 units. Thirty‐two proper‐
ties provide all or a portion of their units as market rate; 25 properties provide affordable or
subsidized units. Affordable developments are those where rent levels are restricted to age‐
qualified households with incomes from 50% to 80% of the Area Median Household income
adjusted for family size. Subsidized developments are those where the rent levels are restrict‐
ed to age‐qualified households with incomes at or less than 50% of the Area Median Household
income.
Table S‐1 provides information on market rate developments and Table S‐4 identifies affordable
and subsidized developments. Information in the table includes year built, number of units,
unit mix, number of vacant units, rents, and general comments about each development.
Tables S‐2 and S‐3 identify amenities and services at each of the market rate senior develop‐
ments. The following are key points from our survey of the senior housing supply.
Senior Units
4,140
Adult Rental Adult For‐Sale Congregate Memory Care Aff/Sub
342 131 962 838 504 1,363
Assisted Lvg.
SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 192
Adult Rental
There are eight existing adult/few services rental developments in Washington County.
These properties have a combined 342 units. Five out of the seven included in the vacancy
calculation had 15 vacant units, resulting in a vacancy factor of 5.0%. Redwoods Apart‐
ments was excluded as it is under construction and will not open until Fall 2017. According
to conversations with on‐site marketing staff, units are being reserved even now. General‐
ly, a healthy senior housing market will have a vacancy rate of around 5.0% in order to allow
for sufficient consumer choice and turnover. Thus, the market for active adult housing is
currently at equilibrium.
Redwoods Apartments at St. Therese is the newest adult rental development in Washington
County. It is currently under construction and is planning to open Fall 2017 with a total of
64 units. There is an entry deposit being charged which ranges from $53,150 to $92,850.
The monthly rent ranges from $2,390 to $2,400 for a one‐bedroom, $3,199 to $3,298 for a
two‐bedroom unit and $4,142 to $4,178 for two‐bedroom plus sunroom deluxe units. Unit
sizes range from 1,062 square feet for a one‐bedroom to 1,857 square feet for a two‐
bedroom, plus sunroom deluxe unit.
Villas of Oak Park (2013) is the second newest adult rental development with 62 units and
currently has two openings. Rents range from $1,798 for a one‐bedroom plus den to
$2,812 for a two‐bedroom plus den unit. Unit sizes range from 909 square feet for a one‐
bedroom plus den unit, 1,236 to 1,588 square feet for a two‐bedroom and 1,468 square
feet for a two‐bedroom plus den unit.
Rents among the adult/few services properties range from $1,120 to $2,400 for a one‐
bedroom unit, $1,250 to $3,298 for a two‐bedroom unit, and $1,050 to $4,178 for a two‐
bedroom plus den/three‐bedroom unit.
Adult Ownership
There are only two adult ownership properties in Washington County. Cardinal Pointe in
Oakdale was built in 2007 and Applewood Pointe of Woodbury was built in 2005.
Applewood Pointe of Woodbury, once part of the Applewood Pointe: Senior Cooperative
Management, is now managed by Realife Management. At this time, Applewood Pointe has
four units available for sale and plans to resell these quickly. Share prices range from
$39,900 to $74,900 for a one‐bedroom/den unit, $65,600 to $139,900 for a two‐bedroom
unit and $154,900 to $175,900 for a two‐bedroom/den unit. Recent sales at Cardinal Pointe
in Oakdale have ranged from $148,250 for a one‐bedroom/den unit to $239,973 for a two‐
bedroom/den unit.
SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 193
Cooperative products involve purchasing a unit (or a share) and then paying monthly fees
which include all utilities (unit and common areas), building maintenance and a portion of
the blanket mortgage on the property.
Congregate Optional Services
There are 12 congregate optional‐services developments in Washington County. Combined,
these facilities have 789 units and as of February 2017, had 11 vacancies. A vacancy rate of
1.4% indicates pent up demand exists for additional congregate rental units.
Five developments have been built since 2014 with congregate level services. Combined,
these facilities offer 208 new congregate units in the market. The Waters of Oakdale (61
units) and Red Rock Senior Living (38 units) have congregate/assisted living units that can be
utilized by either congregate or assisted living residents. Therefore, the total number of
units designated to each service level is ever‐changing based on the needs of the residents
at these locations.
Rent among the congregate optional services properties ranges from $1,210 to $3,845 for a
one‐bedroom unit and from $1,704 to $2,100 for a one‐bedroom plus den unit. Two bed‐
rooms range from $1,820 to $4,305 and two‐bedroom plus den units range from $2,221 to
$4,565 per month.
Services typically include local scheduled transportation to shopping, outings and doctors’
appointments, coordinated activities, one meal daily, monthly housekeeping and 24‐hour
on‐site staff. Meal plans and housekeeping options are optional at a couple of the facilities.
Congregate Service Intensive
There are two congregate service intensive developments in Washington County that have
a combined total of 173 units. The Lodge at White Bear Lake has six vacancies and
Croixdale‐ The Terrace has no vacancies at this time. Together, the two properties had a
combined vacancy rate of 3.5%.
Rent ranges from $1,405 to $2,629 for one‐bedroom units and from $1,925 to $4,125 for
two‐bedroom units. The Lodge at White Bear Lake also offers some efficiency units for
$1,595 to $2,629 a month. Croixdale‐Terrace does not have efficiency units, but offers a
three‐bedroom option instead for $2,350 to $2,475 per month.
Services include shuttle to local areas, activities coordinated by staff, two to three meals
daily, weekly/monthly housekeeping, and 24‐hour on‐site staff.
SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 194
Assisted Living
Washington County has a total of 19 assisted living facilities with 838 units and an overall
vacancy rate of 6.4%. Vacancies increased significantly from 2012.
Five new properties have been added since 2012, adding 185 assisted living units to the
county. The Waters of Oakdale (61 units) and Red Rock Senior Living (38 units) have con‐
gregate/assisted living units that can be utilized by both congregate and assisted living resi‐
dents. Therefore, the number of units at these properties designated to congregate or as‐
sisted living can be ever‐changing based on the needs of the residents.
Rents among all the assisted living properties range from $1,300 to $3,550 for efficiency
units, $1,475 to $3,845 for one‐bedroom units and $2,225 to $4,305 for two‐bedroom units.
Unit sizes range from 337 to 735 square feet for efficiency units, 442 to 850 square feet for
one‐bedroom units and 746 to 1,048 square feet for two‐bedroom units.
All of the assisted living developments include scheduled activities, weekly housekeeping,
laundry, 24‐hour on‐site staff and at least one meal daily, but many offer two to three meals
per day. Base monthly fees vary from property to property, depending on the amount of
personal care, if any, that is included in the base monthly fee. Many facilities charge extra
for personal care either in packages or a‐la‐carte. A health needs assessment is completed
for the resident at move‐in and a personal care program is usually recommended.
Memory Care
There are 19 memory care facilities with 504 units located in Washington County. The
number of memory care units in Washington County has doubled since 2007. Over the past
four years, five new developments have opened with 124 new units.
The memory care vacancy rate is 10.3% as of February 2017. This is a significant increase
from 3.2% in 2013. Prelude Memory Care Cottages and Red Rock Senior Living currently
account for 21 of the 52 total vacancies (40%). Excluding these two properties, the vacancy
rate is 7.1%, which is nearly equal to the market equilibrium rate of 7%.
Excluding the memory care properties with all‐inclusive rates, rents among the remaining
memory care facilities range from $2,430 to $6,000 for efficiency units, $3,300 to $4,475 for
one‐bedroom units and $3,985 to $4,845 for the few two‐bedroom units. Rent ranges can
have greater variances depending on the care needs of the resident.
SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 195
No. of
Occp. Units/
Project Name/Location Date Vacant Resident Profile
Redwoods Apartments @ St. Therese**2017 64 18 ‐ 1BR 1,062 ‐ 1,068 $2,390 ‐ $2,400 55+
7555 Bailey Road UC n/a 34 ‐ 2BR 1,422 ‐ 1,466 $3,199 ‐ $3,298
Woodbury n/a 12 ‐ 2BR Del. 1,841 ‐ 1,857 $4,142 ‐ $4,178
Villas of Oak Park 2013 62 14 ‐ 1BR+Den $1,798 ‐ $1,798 55+
13945 Upper 58th St. 2 42 ‐ 2BR 1,236 ‐ 1,588 $2,412 ‐ $2,412 Avg. Age‐79
Oak Park Heights 3.2% 6 ‐ 2BR/D $2,812 ‐ $2,812
St. Andrew's Terrace 2000 56 7 ‐ 1BR 62+
240 East Ave. 1 28 ‐ 1BR+D 875 ‐ 957 $1,840 ‐ $2,050 Avg Age = 85
Mahtomedi 2% 21 ‐ 2BR 1,048 ‐ 1,500 $2,180 ‐ $2,700
Echo Ridge 1998 80 48 ‐ 1BR 731 ‐ 889 $1,120 ‐ $1,310 55+
1033 Gerschwin Avenue 4 32 ‐ 2BR 1,010 ‐ 1,228 $1,430 ‐ $1,670 Avg Age = 80
Oakdale 5.0%
Eastwood Village (TH)1997 20 12 ‐ 2BR 55+
Upper 35th Street 0 8 ‐ 3BR Avg Age = 70
Oakdale 0%
Briarcliff Manor 1996 13 13 ‐ 3BR $1,330 ‐ $1,390 55+
115 East Avenue 2
Mahtomedi 15.4%
Cottages of Cottage Grove 1993 4 2 ‐ 2BR 55+
8240 East Douglas Road 0 2 ‐ 3BR
Cottage Grove 0%
Oak Ridge Place^1987 43 46 ‐ 1BR 55+
6060 Oxboro Ave. N 6 10 ‐ 1BR+D 702 ‐ 770 Avg Age = 85
Oak Park Heights 14.0% 29 2BR 866 ‐ 889
Adult Rental Total 342 #VALUE! 4.4%*
^ Units not designated as AL or IL ‐ resident designates service level upon occupancy
** Redwoods Apartments at St. Therese also requires an entry fee deposit ranging from $53,100 for 1BR to $92,050 for 2BR Deluxe.
* Does not include properties that did not participate, underconstruction, or are in initial lease‐up phase.
Cardinal Pointe of Oakdale 2007 55 1 ‐ 1BR 55+
1201 Hadley Ave. 0 5 ‐ 1BR+D Prices shown are
Oakdale 0.0% 37 ‐ 2BR 1,080 ‐ 1,369 most recent sales.
12 ‐ 2BR+D 1,583 ‐ 1,941
Applewood Pointe of 2005 76 6 ‐ 1BR/D $39,900 ‐ $74,900 55+
Woodbury 0 59 ‐ 2BR 1,171 ‐ 1,431 $65,600 ‐ $139,900 8 units currently
Lake Rd and I‐494 0.0% 11 ‐ 2BR/D 1,436 ‐ 1,641 $154,900 ‐ $175,900 for‐sale
Woodbury
Adult Ownership Total 131 0 0.0%
$1,640
$1,765
909
ADULT RENTAL
637
1,468
Monthly Rent/Fee
960
1,000
TABLE S‐1
UNIT MIX/SIZE/COST & OCCUPANCY COMPARISON
MARKET RATE SENIOR HOUSING DEVELOPMENTS
WASHINGTON COUNTY
Size
January 2017
Unit Mix/Sizes/Pricing
Sale Price/
No./Type (Sq. Ft.)
1,250
$1,050
$1,475758
1,059
$1,250
1,250
$1,300
$1,095
1,023
1,100
Adult Ownership
803 n/a
$1,538
$148,250
$183,982
$239,973
CONTINUED
SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 196
No. of
Occp. Units/
Project Name/Location Date Vacant Resident Profile
St. Therese of Woodbury 2016 102 22 ‐ 1BR 780 ‐ 836 $2,195 ‐ $2,395 Average Age ‐ 80
7555 Bailey Road 0 26 ‐ 1BR+Den 920 ‐ 1,101 $2,695 ‐ $2,895 UG Parking Incl.
Woodbury 0.0% 54 ‐ 2BR 1,133 ‐ 1,791 $3,195 ‐ $3,695 Waiting List
Keystone Place at LaValle Fields 2016 29 9 ‐ 1BR 833 ‐ 833 55+
14602 Finale Avenue North 0 20 ‐2BR 1,189 ‐ 1,340 $2,895 ‐$3,195 Average age=82
Hugo 0.0%$100/mo. UG
Cherrywood Pointe 2015 35 1 ‐ EFF 55+
1231 W Broadway Ave, #1 0 8 ‐ 1BR 595 ‐ 736 $1,475 ‐ $1,725
Forest Lake 0.0% 11 ‐ 1BR + D
15 ‐2BR 960 ‐ 1,048 $2,225 ‐ $2,575
Red Rock Senior Living^2015 18 11 ‐ EFF 400 ‐ 488 $3,040 ‐ $3,225 55+
2195 Century Ave S 0 18 ‐ 1BR 600 ‐ 678 $3,480 ‐ $3,845
Woodbury 0.0% 9 ‐ 2BR 835 ‐ 1,045 $4,050 ‐ $4,305
The Waters of Oakdale^2014 24 10 ‐ Studio 412 ‐ 455 $2,050 ‐ $2,080 55+
7088 11th St. N. 1 35 ‐ 1BR 531 ‐ 704 $2,440 ‐ $2,690
Oakdale 4.2% 8 ‐ 1BR+D 775 ‐ 861 $3,450 ‐ $3,750
8‐2BR
Oak Park Senior Living 2011 30 12 ‐ 1BR 722 ‐ 722 $1,798 ‐ $1,798 55+
13936 Lower 59th St. N 0 8 ‐ 1BR+D 880 ‐ 880 $1,798 ‐ $1,798
Oak Park Heights 0% 8 ‐ 2BR 1,048 ‐ 1,112 $2,412 ‐ $2,412
2 ‐ 2BR+D 1,415 ‐ 1,415 $2,812 ‐ $2,812
Norris Square Terrace 2010 86 32 ‐ 1BR 712 ‐ 813 $1,399 ‐ $1,569 55+
8200 Hadley Ave S 2 18 ‐ 1BR+D 985 ‐ 989
Cottage Grove 2% 36 ‐ 2BR 1,144 ‐ 1,512 $1,994 ‐ $2,906
Brownstone at 2004 78 11 ‐ 1BR 55+
Boutwell's Landing 4 67 ‐ 2BR 1,266 ‐ 1,520 $2,140 ‐ $2,540
5600 Norwich Pkwy 5%
Oak Park Hts
The Village Homes of 2004 137 18 ‐ 1BR 55+
Boutwell's Landing 0 92 ‐ 2BR 1,469 ‐ 1,682 $2,215 ‐ $2,530
5470‐5784 Norwich Pkwy 0% 14 ‐ 2BR+D 1,753 ‐ 2,475 $2,850 ‐ $4,565
Oak Park Hts 13 ‐ 3BR 2,161 ‐ 4,703 $2,690 ‐ $5,600
The Terrace at 2002 101 79 ‐ 1BR 734 ‐ 929 $1,620 ‐ $2,045 55+
Boutwell's Landing 3 22 ‐ 2BR 1,032 ‐ 2,081 $2,250 ‐ $4,535
5600 Norwich Pkwy 3%
Oak Park Hts
Stonecrest 2000 87 22 ‐ 1BR 660 ‐ 823 $1,210 ‐ $1,310 60+
8723 Promenade Lane 1 20 ‐ 1BR+D 870 ‐ 1,035 $1,655 ‐ $2,110 Avg Age = 83
Woodbury 1.1% 35 ‐ 2BR 948 ‐ 1,253 $1,820 ‐ $2,390
The Ponds at Oak Meadows 1998 62 30 ‐ 1BR 617 ‐ 721 $1,284 ‐ $1,362 62+. Ave Age = 85
8133 4th Street North 0 16 ‐ 1BR/D Short waiting list.
Oakdale 0% 12 ‐ 2BR Garage Fee: $50.
4‐2BR'D Tenant pays electric
Cong./ Opt. Svs. Total Units 789 11
* Does not include properties that did not participate, underconstruction, or are in initial lease‐up phase.
^ Units not designated as AL or IL ‐ resident designates service level upon occupancy
The Lodge at White Bear Lake 2001 117 35 ‐ studio 335 ‐ 542 $1,595 ‐ $2,629
3666 E County Line North 6 68 ‐ 1BR 542 ‐ 894 $2,195 ‐ $3,350
White Bear Lake 5.2% 14 ‐ 2BR 877 ‐ 1,056 $2,995 ‐ $4,125
Croixdale ‐ The Terrace 2005 56 30 ‐ 1BR 692 ‐ 762 $1,405 $1,440 55+
750 Highway 95 0 22 ‐ 2BR 1,000 ‐ 1,222 $1,925 ‐ $2,330
Bayport 0.0% 4 ‐ 3BR 1,235 ‐ 1,300 $2,350 ‐ $2,475
Cong./ Service Int. Total Units 173 6 3.5%
$2,595
Sale Price/
TABLE S‐1
UNIT MIX/SIZE/COST & OCCUPANCY COMPARISON
MARKET RATE SENIOR HOUSING DEVELOPMENTS
WASHINGTON COUNTY
884
1.4%*
$2,100
987
464 $1,300
$1,663
$1,855
Congregate/ Service Intensive
CONTINUED
974
January 2017
Unit Mix/Sizes/Pricing
1,189
No./Type
1,158 $1,640
Congregate/Optional Services
$1,704
$3,950
$1,630
957
803
$2,221
Size
(Sq. Ft.) Monthly Rent/Fee
SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 197
No. of
Occp. Units/
Project Name/Location Date Vacant Resident Profile
St. Therese of Woodbury 2016 38 36 ‐ 1BR 516 ‐ 703 $2,975 ‐ $3,400 Average Age‐83
7555 Bailey Road 0 2 ‐ 2BR 863 ‐ 1,030 $3,850 ‐ $3,975
Woodbury 0.0%
Keystone Place at LaValle Fields 2015 49 24‐Studio 356‐416 Average Age=83
14602 Finale Avenue N. 3 22 ‐ 1BR 600 ‐ 607
Hugo 6.1% 3 ‐ 2BR
Cherrywood Pointe 2015 35 2 ‐ Eff
1231 W Broadway Ave, #1 0 9 ‐ 1BR 595 ‐ 736 $1,475 ‐ $1,725 55+
Forest Lake 0.0% 10 ‐ 1BR + D
14 ‐2BR 960 ‐ 1,048 $2,225 ‐ $2,575
Red Rock Senior Living^2015 26 11 ‐ Eff 400 ‐ 488 $3,040 ‐ $3,225
2195 Century Ave S 2 18 ‐ 1BR 600 ‐ 678 $3,480 ‐ $3,845 55+
Woodbury 7.7% 9 2BR 835 1,045 $4,050 ‐ $4,305
The Waters of Oakdale^2014 37 10 ‐ Studio 412 ‐ 455 $3,075 ‐ $3,105 55+
7088 11th St. N. 0 35 ‐ 1BR 531 ‐ 704 $3,465 ‐ $3,715 Avg. Age = 82
Oakdale 0.0% 8 ‐ 1BR+D 775 ‐ 861 $4,475 ‐ $4,775
8‐2BR
Oak Park Senior Living 2011 63 n/a ‐ Studio 400 ‐ 488 $3,232 ‐ $3,232
13936 Lower 59th St. N 3 n/a ‐ 1BR 600 ‐ 678 $3,640 ‐ $3,640
Oak Park Heights 4.8% n/a ‐ 2BR 1,048 ‐ 1,112 $4,336 ‐ $4,336
Coventry Senior Living 2011 16 13 ‐ Eff. 332 ‐ 343 $3,270 ‐ $3,550
720 Mahtomedi Ave 2 3 ‐ 1BR 442 ‐ 464 $3,605 ‐ $3,890
Mahtomedi 12.5%
Norris Square Commons 2010 21 19 ‐ 1BR 551 ‐ 663 $2,995 ‐ $3,239
8200 Hadley Ave S 6 2 ‐ 2BR
Cottage Grove 28.6%
White Pine Senior Living (AL)2008 41 8 ‐ EFF
6950 East Point Douglas Rd S 2 17 ‐ 1BR 627 ‐ 722
Cottage Grove 4.9% 16 ‐ 1BR + 680 ‐ 766
Stonecrest (AL)2007 59 13 ‐ EFF Avg Age = 85
8723 Promenade Lane 1 41 ‐ 1BR 555 ‐ 850 $3,205 ‐ $3,365
Woodbury 1.7% 3 ‐ 1BR+D 786 ‐ 860
2 ‐ 2BR 829 ‐ 896 $3,935 ‐ $3,955
Croixdale ‐ The Commons 2005 43 2 ‐ Suite 55+
750 Highway 95 0 28 ‐ 1BR 585 ‐ 701 $2,815 ‐ $3,085 Avg Age = 87
Bayport 0.0% 13 ‐ 2BR 746 ‐ 842 $3,455 ‐ $3,520
Gracewood Senior Living 2004 12 12 ‐ EFF 65+
5607 150th St. N. 3
Hugo 25.0%
Birchwood Arbors 2003 46 46 ‐ 1BR $2,975 ‐ $3,175 55+
604 NE First Street 6
Forest Lake 13.0%
The Commons at 2001 79 15 ‐ EFF 476 ‐ 618 $2,990 ‐ $3,345 55+
Boutwell's Landing 5 33 ‐ 1BR 511 ‐ 631 $3,270 ‐ $3,695
5600 Norwich Pkwy 6.3% 17 ‐ 2BR 844 ‐ 928 $4,065 ‐ $4,430
Oak Park Hts
St. Andrew's Commons 2001 44 13 ‐ EFF 62+
240 East Ave. 2 27 ‐ 1BR 577 ‐ 772 Avg Age = 75+
Mahtomedi 4.5% 4 ‐ 2BR
Woodbury Estates 1998 64 23 ‐ EFF 337 ‐ 410 $2,900 ‐ $2,950 55+
2825 Woodlane Dr 10 41 ‐ 1BR 396 ‐ 612 $3,150 ‐ $3,400 Avg Age = 82
Woodbury 15.6%
The Pines at 1998 48 20 ‐ EFF 392 ‐ 476 $2,455 ‐ $2,679 62+. Ave Age = 85
Oak Meadows 331‐1BR Garage Fee: $50.
8131 4th Street North 6.3% 11 ‐ 2BR 927 ‐ 957 $3,368 ‐ $3,662 Addn'l Person: $500
Oakdale
Oak Ridge Place^1987 42 46 ‐ 1BR 55+
6060 Oxboro Ave. N 3 10 ‐ 1BR+D 702 ‐ 770 Avg Age = 85
Oak Park Heights 7.1% 29 ‐ 2BR 866 ‐ 889
Woodbury Villa 1985 75 7 ‐ EFF 574 ‐ 735 60+
7008 Lake Rd 3 63 ‐ 1BR 575 ‐ 735 $2,300 ‐ $2,600 Avg Age = 80
Woodbury 4.0% 5 ‐ 2BR 754 ‐ 999 $2,650 ‐ $3,000
Total Assisted Living Units 838 54 6.4%*
* Does not include properties that did not participate, underconstruction, or are in initial lease‐up phase.
^ Units not designated as AL or IL ‐ resident designates service level upon occupancy
$3,695
$3,995
$4,295
MARKET RATE SENIOR HOUSING DEVELOPMENTS
WASHINGTON COUNTY
$3,975
404
$3,590
$2,060
404
No./Type
869
January 2017
964 $3,585
$2,350
$1,300464
803 $2,100
UNIT MIX/SIZE/COST & OCCUPANCY COMPARISON
Unit Mix/Sizes/Pricing
TABLE S‐1
ASSISTED LIVING
(Sq. Ft.)
CONTINUED
$4,030
613
$2,658
1,011
$2,990
$2,771
$3,335
$2,865451
500
$2,950
$3,365
$4,500
$2,950
380
987 $4,975
Size Sale Price/
480
Monthly Rent/Fee
$2,558637
SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 198
No. of
Occp. Units/
Project Name/Location Date Vacant Resident Profile
St. Therese of Woodbury*2016 20 20 ‐ Studio 416 ‐ 552 $3,275 ‐ $3,375 Average Age=82
7555 Bailey Road 0
Woodbury 0.0%
Keystone at LaValle Fields 2015 22 12 ‐ Studio 336 ‐ 336 Average Age=80
14602 Finale Avenue N. 0 10 ‐ 1BR 643 ‐ 643 All inclusive care
Hugo 0.0%
Cherrywood Pointe 2015 22 15 ‐ EFF 386 ‐ 469 $3,000 ‐ $3,100 55+
1231 W Broadway Ave, #1 3 7 ‐ 1BR 507 ‐ 736
Forest Lake 13.6%
Red Rock Senior Living 2015 32 27 ‐ EFF 301 ‐ 383 $3,400 ‐ $3,656 55+
2195 Century Ave S 12 5 ‐ 1BR 436 ‐ 578 $3,965 ‐ $4,068
Woodbury 37.5%
The Waters of Oakdale 2014 28 24 ‐ Studio 415 ‐ 455 $6,500 ‐ $,6900 55+
7088 11th St. N. 0 4 ‐ 1BR
Oakdale 0.0%
White Pine Senior Living (MC)2011 44 44 ‐ EFF All Inclusive
6950 East Point Douglas Rd S 0
Cottage Grove 0.0%
Oak Park Senior Living 2011 57 n/a ‐ Studio 400 ‐ 488 $3,220 ‐ $3,220
13936 Lower 59th St. 2 n/a ‐ 1BR 600 ‐ 678 $3,355 ‐ $3,355
Oak Park Heights 3.5%
Coventry Senior Living 2011 32 26 ‐ EFF 332 ‐ 343 $3,270 ‐ $3,550
720 Mahtomedi Ave 2 6 ‐ 1BR 442 ‐ 464 $3,605 ‐ $3,890
Mahtomedi 6.3%
Prelude Memory Care Cottages 2011 36 36 ‐ 1BR $6,050 ‐ $9,255 All male cottage
10020 Raleigh Road 9
Woodbury 25.0%
Norris Square Arbor 2010 18 8 ‐ Suite
8200 Hadley Ave S 2 9 ‐ 1BR 551 ‐ 663 $3,376 ‐ $3,626
Cottage Grove 11.1% 1 ‐ 2BR
Woods at Oak Meadows 2009 12 10 ‐ EFF 392 ‐ 528 $2,787 ‐ $3,234 62+
8131 4th Street North 0 2 ‐ 1BR Addn'l Person: $600
Oakdale 0.0% Short Waiting list.
Stonecrest (MC)2007 18 8 ‐ EFF 477 ‐ 548
8723 Promenade Lane 0 10 ‐ 1BR 480 ‐ 670 $3,675 ‐ $4,050
Woodbury 0.0%
Croixdale ‐ The Arbor 2005 10 1 ‐ EFF 55+
750 Highway 95 0 8 ‐ 1BR 585 ‐ 668 $3,305 $3,580
Bayport 0.0% 1 ‐ 2BR
Gracewood Senior Living 2004 12 12 ‐ EFF 65+
5607 150th St. N. 3
Hugo 25.0%
The Arbors at 2004 17 2 ‐ Suite 308 ‐ 418 $890 ‐ $3,215 55+
Boutwell's Landing 02‐EFF
5600 Norwich Pkwy 0.0% 12 ‐ 1BR 505 ‐ 806 $3,885 ‐ $4,475
Oak Park Hts 1 2BR
St. Andrew's Arbor 2001 25 20 ‐ EFF 62+
22 East Ave. 3 5 ‐ 1BR Avg Age 75+
Mahtomedi 12.0%
Woodbury Estates 1998 36 36 ‐ EFF 337 410 55+
2825 Woodlane Dr 8 Avg Age = 82
Woodbury 22.2%
New Perspectives 1996 33 33 ‐ EFF 170 ‐ 300 $4,455 ‐ $4,900 No age restriction
111‐113 East Ave 4 Avg. Age = 79
Mahtomedi 12.1%
Birchwood Memory Care n/a 30 30 ‐ EFF $4,500 ‐ $6,000 N/A
604 1st St 4
Forest Lake 13.3%
Total Memory Care Units 504 52 8.5%*
Total of ALL Senior Market Rate 2,777 138 5.8%*
*Vacancy rate does not include properties that did not participate in survey, under constrution, or in initial lease‐up phase.
$3,485
$3,845
$4,520
613
$2,860337
336
$3,569
280
(Sq. Ft.)
$2,430
$3,300
$3,615
$7,500
964
$5,150
(all inclusive)
404
TABLE S‐1
MARKET RATE SENIOR HOUSING DEVELOPMENTS
WASHINGTON COUNTY
January 2017
Unit Mix/Sizes/Pricing
No./Type
Size Sale Price/
Monthly Rent/Fee
UNIT MIX/SIZE/COST & OCCUPANCY COMPARISON
$3,300
$3,885
$3,985817
360
516
$4,845
577
531
869
Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
MEMORY CARE
$5,725
451
155
$5,700
$6,095
SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 199 Utilities Transportation Activities Meal Program Hskpg. Health/Misc.Redwoods ApartmentsAll Utilities Incl. Shuttle to local areas Coordinated by staff.Optional Monthly None.except telephone/cable.Villas of Oak Park All Utilities Incl. Shuttle to local areas Coordinated by staff.Optional Optional None.except telephone/cable.St. Andrew's TerraceAll Utilities Shuttle to local areas None. None. None. None.Echo RidgeHeat, AC, water, sewer, Shuttle to local areas None. Breakfast 3 times/week Complimentary None.and trash incl.Eastwood Village (TH)Tenants pay electric, None. Coordinated by staff. One/month None. None.gas, and trash.Briarcliff ManorHeat, water, and None. Coordinated by staff. Meals on wheels None.None.sewer incl.Cottages of Cottage GroveTenants pay gas and None. None. None. None. None.electric.Cardinal Pointe of OakdaleWater, sewer, heat, None. Coordinated by staff. None. None. None.and basic cable incl.Applewood Pointe of WdbyResident pays electric, None. Coordinated by staff. None. None. None.phone, and cable.St. Therese of WoodburyAll Utilities Incl. Shuttle to local areas Coordinated by staff.Optional Optional 24‐hour on‐site staffexcept telephoneKeystone Place at LaValle FieldsAll Utilities Incl. Shuttle to local areas Coordinated by staff.Continental Brkfst. Bi‐monthly 24‐hour on‐site staffexcept telephone One meal additional/dayCherrywood PointeAll Utilities Incl. Shuttle to local areas Coordinated by staff.Optional Optional 24‐hour on‐site staffexcept telephone/cable.Oak Park Senior LivingAll Utilities Incl. Shuttle to local areas Coordinated by staff.Optional Optional 24‐hour on‐site staffexcept telephone/cable.Norris Square TerraceAll Utilities Shuttle to local areas Coordinated by staff. Continental Breakfast Monthly light 24‐hour on‐site staffhousekeepingBrownstone at All Utilities Shuttle to local areas Coordinated by staff. Breakfast 6 days/week Monthly light 24‐hour on‐site staffBoutwell's LandinghousekeepingThe Village Homes ofTelephone, water, Shuttle to local areas Coordinated by staff. Breakfast 6 days/week Monthly light 24‐hour on‐site staffBoutwell's Landingsewer, and trash incl.housekeepingThe Terrace at All Utilities Shuttle to local areas Coordinated by staff. Breakfast 6 days/week Monthly light 24‐hour on‐site staffBoutwell's LandinghousekeepingStonecrest All Utilities Shuttle to local areas Coordinated by staff. Continental Breakfast Monthly light 24‐hour on‐site staffhousekeepingThe Ponds at Oak MeadowsAll except phone and Shuttle to local areas Coordinated by staff.Optional Optional 24‐hour on‐site staffelectric.The Lodge at White Bear LakeAll Utilities Incl. Shuttle to local areas Coordinated by staff.3 meals daily Weekly Houskeeping 24‐hour on‐site staffexcept telephone.Croixdale ‐ The TerraceAll Utilities Shuttle to local areas Coordinated by staff. Two meal/daily Monthly light 24‐hour on‐site staffAdult OwnershipCongregate/ Few ServicesTABLE S‐2SERVICES COMPARISONCOMPETITIVE SENIOR DEVELOPMENTSWASHINGTON COUNTYJanuary 2017Adult RentalCongregate/ Service IntensiveContinued
SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 200 Utilities Transportation Activities Meal Program Hskpg. Health/Misc.St. Therese of WoodburyAll Utilities Incl. Shuttle to local areas Coordinated by staff.3 meals/daily Weekly Houskeeping 24‐hour on‐site staffexcept telephoneKeystone Place at LaValle FieldsAll Utilities Incl. Shuttle to local areas Coordinated by staff.3 meals/daily Weekly Houskeeping 24‐hour on‐site staffexcept telephoneCherrywood PointeAll Utilities Incl. Shuttle to local areas Coordinated by staff.3 meals/daily Weekly Houskeeping 24‐hour on‐site staffexcept telephone/cable.Oak Park Senior LivingAll Utilities Incl. Shuttle to local areas Coordinated by staff. 3 meals daily Weekly Houskeeping 24‐hour on‐site staffCoventry Senior LivingAll Utilities Incl. Shuttle to local areas Coordinated by staff.3 meals daily Weekly Houskeeping 24‐hour on‐site staffexcept telephone.Norris Square CommonsAll Utilities Incl. Shuttle to local areas Coordinated by staff. 2 meals daily Weekly Houskeeping 24‐hour on‐site staffWhite Pine Senior Living (AL)All Utilities Incl. None. Coordinated by staff. 3 meals daily Weekly Houskeeping 24‐hour on‐site staffexcept telephone/cable.Stonecrest (AL)All Utilities Incl. Shuttle to local areas Coordinated by staff. 2 meals daily Weekly Houskeeping 24‐hour on‐site staffCroixdale ‐ The CommonsAll Utilities Incl. Shuttle to local areas Coordinated by staff. 2 meals daily Weekly Houskeeping 24‐hour on‐site staffBirchwood ArborsAll Utilities Incl. Shuttle to local areas Coordinated by staff.3 meals daily Weekly Houskeeping 24‐hour on‐site staffexcept telephone.The Commons at All Utilities Incl. Shuttle to local areas Coordinated by staff. Breakfast. 2 meals daily Weekly Houskeeping 24‐hour on‐site staffBoutwell's LandingSt. Andrew's CommonsAll Utilities Incl. Shuttle to local areas Coordinated by staff. 2 meals daily Weekly Houskeeping 24‐hour on‐site staffWoodbury EstatesAll Utilities Incl. Shuttle to local areas Coordinated by staff. 3 meals daily Weekly Houskeeping 24‐hour on‐site staffThe Pines at All Utilities Incl. Shuttle to local areas Coordinated by staff.3 meals daily Weekly Houskeeping 24‐hour on‐site staffOak Meadowsexcept telephone.Oak Ridge PlaceAll Utilities Incl. Shuttle to local areas Coordinated by staff 2 meals daily Weekly Housekeeping 24‐hour on‐site staffexcept telephone.Woodbury VillaTenant pays electric. Shuttle to local areas Coordinated by staff. 3 meals daily Weekly Houskeeping 24‐hour on‐site staffAssisted LivingTABLE S‐2SERVICES COMPARISONCOMPETITIVE SENIOR DEVELOPMENTSWASHINGTON COUNTYJanuary 2017Continued
SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 201 Utilities Transportation Activities Meal Program Hskpg. Health/Misc.St. Therese of WoodburyAll Utilities Incl. Shuttle to local areas Coordinated by staff.3 meals/daily Weekly Houskeeping 24‐hour on‐site staffexcept telephoneKeystone Place at LaValle FieldsAll Utilities Incl. Shuttle to local areas Coordinated by staff.3 meals/daily Weekly Houskeeping 24‐hour on‐site staffexcept telephoneCherrywood PointeAll Utilities Incl. Shuttle to local areas Coordinated by staff.3 meals/daily Weekly Houskeeping 24‐hour on‐site staffexcept telephone/cableWhite Pine Senior Living (MC)All Utilities Incl. None. Coordinated by staff. 3 meals daily Weekly Houskeeping 24‐hour on‐site staffexcept telephoneOak Park Senior LivingAll Utilities Incl. Shuttle to local areas Coordinated by staff. 3 meals/daily Weekly Houskeeping 24‐hour on‐site staffCoventry Senior LivingAll Utilities Incl. Shuttle to local areas Coordinated by staff. 3 meals/daily Weekly Houskeeping 24‐hour on‐site staffPrelude Memory Care CottagesAll Utilities Incl. Shuttle to local areas Coordinated by staff 3 meals/daily Weekly Housekeeping 24‐hour on‐site staffNorris Square ArborAll Utilities Incl. Shuttle to local areas Coordinated by staff. 3 meals/daily Weekly Houskeeping 24‐hour on‐site staffWoods at Oak MeadowsAll Utilities Incl. Shuttle to local areas Coordinated by staff.3 meals/daily Weekly Houskeeping 24‐hour on‐site staffexcept telephone.Stonecrest (MC)All Utilities Incl. Shuttle to local areas Coordinated by staff. 3 meals/daily Weekly Houskeeping 24‐hour on‐site staffCroixdale ‐ The ArborAll Utilities Incl. Shuttle to local areas Coordinated by staff. 3 meals/daily Weekly Houskeeping 24‐hour on‐site staffGracewood Sr. Living‐HugoAll Utilities Incl. None. Coordinated by staff. 3 meals daily Weekly Houskeeping 24‐hour on‐site staffexcept telephone.The Arbors at All Utilities Incl. Shuttle to local areas Coordinated by staff. 3 meals/daily Weekly Houskeeping 24‐hour on‐site staffBoutwell's LandingSt. Andrew's ArborAll Utilities Incl. Shuttle to local areas Coordinated by staff. 3 meals/daily Weekly Houskeeping 24‐hour on‐site staffWoodbury EstatesAll Utilities Incl. Shuttle to local areas Coordinated by staff. 3 meals daily Weekly Houskeeping 24‐hour on‐site staffNew PerspectivesAll Utilities Incl. Scheduled for Outings Coordinated by staff 3 meals daily Weekly Housekeeping 24‐hour on‐site staffBirchwood Memory CareAll Utilities Incl. Scheduled for Outings Coordinated by staff 3 meals daily Weekly/Daily Hskpg. 24‐hour on‐site staffSource: Maxfield ResearchMemory CareJanuary 2017TABLE S‐2SERVICES COMPARISONCOMPETITIVE SENIOR DEVELOPMENTSWASHINGTON COUNTY
SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 202
TABLE S‐3
AMENITY COMPARISON
SENIOR DEVELOPMENTS
WASHINGTON COUNTY
January 2017
Amenities/Features:Emer. CallA/CDishwasherDisposalsBalc./PatioWalk‐in ClosetIn Unit LaundryStorageComm. Rm. Exercise Rm.Activity Rm.SalonLibraryGame Rm.Terrace/porchGuest SuitesParkingOther
Adult Rental
Redwoods Apartments Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Underground Theater
Chapel
Villas of Oak Park Y Y Y Y N N N N N N N Y Y N N Y Underground
St. Andrew's Terrace YY YYY N YYYYNNYNNY Surface
Echo Ridge Y Y Y Y N N Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N N Y Underground
Eastwood Village (TH)NY YYY NNYYNNNNNNY Attached
Briarcliff Manor YY YNY Y NYYYNNYNNN Surface
Cottages of Cottage Grove NY NNY N YNYNNNYNNN Detached
Oak Ridge Place YY YYY Y NYYYNYYNYN Surface
Adult Ownership
Cardinal Pointe of Oakdale N Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y N Y Underground
Applewood Pointe of Wdby N Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y N N Y Underground
CONTINUED
SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 203
WASHINGTON COUNTY
January 2017
Amenities/Features:
TABLE S‐3
AMENITY COMPARISON
SENIOR DEVELOPMENTS
Emer. CallA/CDishwasherDisposalsBalc./PatioWalk‐in ClosetIn Unit LaundryStorageComm. Rm. Exercise Rm.Activity Rm.SalonLibraryGame RoomTerrace/porchGuest SuitesParkingOther
Congregate/ Few Services
St. Therese‐Woodbury Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Underground Theater
Chapel
Keystone at LaValle Fields Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y N Underground Theater
Cherrywood Pointe Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Underground Theater
Chapel
Red Rock Senior Living Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y N Underground Theater
Chapel
Oak Park Senior Living YY NNY N YNYYNYYNYY Surface
Norris Square Terrace Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N N Y Underground
Brownstone at Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N N Y N N N N Y Underground
Boutwell's Landing
The Village Homes of YY YYY Y YYYYYYYNYYAttach. Garage
Boutwell's Landing
The Terrace at YY YYY N YYYYYYYNYY Surface
Boutwell's Landing
Stonecrest Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y N N N N Y Underground
The Ponds at Oak Meadows Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N N Y Y Y Y Y Underground
Congregate/ Service Intensive
The Lodge at White Bear Lake YY NNY N YNYYNYYNYY Detached
Croixdale ‐ The Terrace Y Y Y Y N Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Underground
CONTINUED
SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 204
Amenities/Features:
TABLE S‐3
AMENITY COMPARISON
SENIOR DEVELOPMENTS
WASHINGTON COUNTY
January 2017
Emer. CallA/CDishwasherDisposalsBalc./PatioWalk‐in ClosetIn Unit LaundryStorageComm. Rm. Exercise Rm.Activity Rm.SalonLibraryGame Rm.Terrace/porchGuest SuitesParkingOther
Assisted Living
St. Therese‐Woodbury YY YYY Y YYYYYYYNYY Underground Theater
Surface Chapel
Keystone at LaValle Fields YY YYY Y YYYYYYYNYN Underground Theater
Surface
Cherrywood Pointe YY YYY Y YYYYYYYNYN Underground Theater
Surface Chapel
Red Rock Senior Living YY YYY Y YYYYYYYNYN Underground Theater
Surface Chapel
Oak Park Senior Living YY YYY Y YYYNYYYNYN Surface
Coventry Senior Living YY NNN N NNYNNYNNYN Surface
Norris Square Commons YY YNNNNNYNYNNNNY Surface
White Pine Senior Living (AL)YY YNN Y NNYYYYNNYY Surface
Stonecrest (AL)YY YYY Y NYYYYNNNNY Surface
Croixdale ‐ The Commons YY YNN N NNYYYYYNNY Surface
Comforts of Home‐Hugo YY NNN Y NNYYYYYNYN Surface
Birchwood Arbors YY YYN Y NNYYYYYNNY Surface
The Commons at YY YYN Y NNYYYNYNYY Surface
Boutwell's Landing
St. Andrew's Commons YY YNN N NYYYYYYNNY Surface
Woodbury Estates YY NNN N NYYYYYYNNY Surface
The Pines at YY NNN Y NNYNYYYYYY Surface
Oak Meadows
Oak Ridge Place YY YYN Y NYYYYYYNYN Surface
Woodbury Villa YY NNY Y NYYNYYNYNY Surface
CONTINUED
SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 205
Amenities/Features:
TABLE S‐3
AMENITY COMPARISON
SENIOR DEVELOPMENTS
WASHINGTON COUNTY
January 2017
Emer. CallA/CDishwasherDisposalsBalc./PatioWalk‐in ClosetIn Unit LaundryStorageComm. Rm. Exercise Rm.Activity Rm.SalonLibraryGame Rm.Terrace/porchGuest SuitesParkingOther
Memory Care
St. Therese‐Woodbury YY YYY Y YYYYYYYNYY Surface Theater
Chapel
Keystone at LaValle Fields YY YYY Y YYYYYYYNYN Surface Theater
Cherrywood Pointe YY YYY Y YYYNYYYNYN Surface Theater
Chapel
Red Rock Senior Living YY YYY Y YYYNYYYNYN Surface Theater
Chapel
White Pine Senior Living (MC)YY YNN Y NNYYYYNNYY Surface
Oak Park Senior Living YY NNN N NNYNY YYNNY Surface
Coventry Senior Living YY NNN N NNYNNYNNYN Surface
Prelude Memory Care Cottages YY NNN N NNYNY YNNYN Surface Spa
Services
Norris Square Arbor YY NNN N NNYNYNNNNY Surface
Woods at Oak Meadows YY NNN Y NYYNYYYNYY Surface
Stonecrest (MC)YY NNN N NNYYY YYYYY Surface
Croixdale ‐ The Arbor YY NNN N NNYNYNYNYY Surface
Comforts of Home‐Hugo YY NNN Y NNYYY YYNYN Surface
The Arbors at YY NNN N NNYNYNNNNY Surface
Boutwell's Landing
St. Andrew's Arbor YY NNN N NNYNY YNNNY Surface
Woodbury Estates YY NNNNNYYNYYYNNY Surface
New Perspectives YY NNN N NNYNNYYNYN Surface
Birchwood Memory Care YY NNN N NNYNNYYNYN Surface In nursing
home
Source: Maxfield Research
SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 206
SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 207
Affordable and Subsidized Senior Housing Properties
Subsidized senior housing offers rents affordable to qualified lower income seniors and
handicapped/disabled persons. Typically, rents are tied to residents’ incomes with incomes
restricted to 50% or less of AMI and the rent paid is based on 30% of the household’s ad‐
justed gross income (AGI). For those households meeting the age and income qualifica‐
tions, subsidized senior housing is usually the most affordable rental option available. Af‐
fordable properties are typically funded under the Low Income Housing Tax Credit Program
or Section 42 or other assistance program with rents restricted to households with incomes
between 50% and 80% of Washington County’s area median income.
There are 1,363 units in 25, affordable and subsidized senior properties. As of February
2017, there were seven units vacant (0.6% vacancy rate), indicating substantial pent‐up
demand for these types of units.
An estimated 65% of the affordable and subsidized units have one‐bedroom. The remaining
units are two‐bedroom (31%), three‐bedroom (3%) and one‐bedroom plus den (1%).
Green Twig Villas and Piccadilly Square are the newest income‐restricted properties in
Washington County, both opening in 2016. Combined, these two properties have 142 units
and are in initial‐lease up. Green Twig Villas opened in December 2016 and would not di‐
vulge current leased units. Piccadilly Square opened in October 2016 and has 33 of 79 units
remaining to be leased.
Typically, subsidized senior housing offers limited to no amenities. New properties howev‐
er, are now offering community dining rooms, in‐unit washer/dryer, balconies, extra stor‐
age and underground parking.
SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 208
Year Units/
Project Name/Location Built Vacant Comments/Amenities/Features
Green Twig Villas*2016 62 35 ‐ 1BR
Oak Park Heights Lease Up 27 ‐ 2BR
Period
Piccadilly Square*2016 79 60 ‐ 1BR $766 ‐$825
Mahtomedi 33 19 ‐ 2BR $956 ‐$1,119
Views at City Walk 2013 45 31 ‐ 1BR $415 ‐$725
Woodbury 0 14 ‐ 2BR $475 ‐ $860
Trailside Senior Living 2011 70 36 ‐ 1BR $419 ‐$784
Forest Lake 0 34 ‐ 2BR $540 ‐ $975
Cypress Senior at Red Oak 2011 39 18 ‐ 1BR
Oakdale 0 21 ‐ 2BR
St. Andrew's Terrace 2000 14 14 ‐ 1BR
Mahtomedi 0
Echo Ridge 1998 20 20 ‐ 1BR
Oakdale 1
Briarcliff Manor 1996 57 17 ‐ 1BR
Mahtomedi 2 35 ‐ 2BR
5‐3BR
Eastwood Village 1995 70 18 ‐ 1BR $850 ‐ $885
Oakdale 2 35 ‐ 2BR $915 ‐ $945
17 ‐ 3BR $970 ‐ $1,005
Oak Terrace 1994 49 49 ‐ 1BR
Oakdale 0
Cottages of Cottage Grove 1993 54 11 ‐ 1BR
Cottage Grove 1 29 ‐ 2BR
14 ‐ 3BR
Cottages of Aspen 1992 114 19 ‐ 1BR
Oakdale 1 95 ‐ 2BR $959 ‐$1,014
Cobble Hill 1992 45 18 ‐ 1BR
Woodbury 0 27 ‐ 2BR
Ann Bodlovick Apartments 1991 50 32 ‐ 1BR $705 ‐ $741
Stillwater 0 18 ‐ 2BR $847 ‐ $855
John Jergens Estates 1991 30 15 ‐ 1BR
Forest Lake 0 15 ‐ 2BR
Pioneer Apartments 1990 18 17 ‐ 1BR
St. Paul Park 0 1 ‐ 2BR
Mueller Manor 1990 28 16 ‐ 1BR
Hugo 0 12 ‐ 1BR+D
East Shore Place 1982 61 61 ‐ 1BR
Mahtomedi 0
Red Rock Manor 1981 78 76 ‐ 1BR
Newport 0 2 ‐ 2BR
Rivertown Commons 1980 96 90 ‐ 1BR
Stillwater 0 6 ‐ 2BR
Raymie Johnson Estates 1979 96 91 ‐ 1BR
Oak Park Heights 0 5 ‐ 2BR
Kilkenny Court 1976 92 83 ‐ 1BR
Forest Lake 0 9 ‐ 2BR
Whispering Pines 1971 40 40 ‐ 1BR
Forest Lake 0
Oakhill Cottages 1995 40 8 ‐ 1BR
Scandia 0 32 ‐ 2BR
Westview Apartments n/a 16 15 ‐ 1BR
Forest Lake 0 1 ‐ 2BR
County Total 1,363
7
* These properties are in the initial lease up phase an thus are not including in the vacancy rate total.
Source: Maxfield Research and Consulting, LLC
Affodable at 80% of County Median Income; Washington
County CDA owned. Single‐level cottages. Average age is 70.
Detached and surface parking available.
$842
30% of AMI
30% of AMI
$705
30% of AMI
$776
$855
$965
$1,071
$748
Opened Oct. 2016. Section 42 Tax Credit. UG heated pkg.,
community and fitness rooms, scheduled transportation
and on‐site services coordinator.
Section 42/Tax Credit property. Two‐tiered rent structure
(ADA & Tax Credit rents). Amenities include full kitchen
appliance package, computer lab, laundry facilities.
Residents pay gas and electric.
Opened Dec. 2016 Section 42 Tax Credit. washer/dryer in‐
unit, controlled entrance, scheduled transportation, pets
welcome with restrictions, heated underground parking
$1,084
$631
Section 42 Tax Credit. Community room, washer/dryer in‐
unit, breakfast bar, and storage space.$960
$860
$866
3‐4 story building; 14 of 70 units designated as affordable.
Resident profile: average age = 85.
Vacancy Rate
TABLE S‐4
AFFORDABLE AND SUBSIDIZED SENIOR RENTAL DEVELOPMENTS
WASHINGTON COUNTY
FEBRUARY 2017
$865
30% and 60% of AMI. Community room and laundry room
located on the premises.
30% of AMI
$866
Washington County CDA owned. 2‐story building.
Community room, emergency response.
Unit Mix/ Rents
Washington County CDA owned with maximums at 80% AMI.
2‐story elevator building with underground parking.
0.6%
$751
30% of AMI
$650
$639
$658
$660
$736
$650
Section 42 Tax Credit. 5 one‐level buildings. Detached
garage parking. Community room and library.
Section 8. Residents pay 30% of AMI. 6 month waiting list.
UNIT MIX/SIZE/COST & OCCUPANCY COMPARISON
Washington County CDA owned. In‐unit washer and dryer,
balcony, underground parking, storage, and community
room.
50% of AMI. 4‐story building with underground parking.
Community room, woodshop, game room, and dining room.
Section 42 Tax Credit. 3‐story elevator building, "V" shaped,
with underground parking. Community, library, and craft
rooms. Garden plots, laundry, and storage lockers.
$1,015
$886 Section 42 Tax Credit. One‐level cottages w/ private
entrances. Community, craft, library, and dinning rooms.
Washington County CDA owned. 5 story building.
Community room, emergency pull cords, and off‐street
parking.
Washington County CDA owned. 1 story building.
Community room. Limited amount of garages; off‐street $686
Section 8. Residents pay 30% of AMI. Community rooms,
patios, and library.
Washington County CDA owned. Single‐level cottages.
Average Age is 70. Detached and surface parking available.$815
Washington County CDA owned. 2 story building.
Community room and off‐street parking.
$995
Washington County CDA owned. Residents pay 30% of AMI.
Community room and activities director.
$930
Section 8. Residents pay 30% of AMI. Two community
rooms (2nd & 3rd floors).
Section 8. Residents pay 30% of AMI. Community rooms,
gardens, library, sunroom, cable, & internet.
30% of AMI Section 8. Residents pay 30% of AMI. Community room,
walk‐in showers, tub room.
Section 8. Residents pay 30% of AMI. Community room
offers computers for residents to use.
SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 209 Product TypeNortheast Stillwater Southeast Forest Lake Hugo Mahtomedi Oakdale Lake Elmo Woodbury Cottage GroveTotalAffordable/SubsidizedUnits 40 304 ‐ 248 28 211 292 ‐ 90 150 1,363Vacancy Rate* 0.0% 0.0% ‐ 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 1.3% ‐ 0.0% 0.7% 0.6%Active Adult RentalUnits ‐ 105 ‐ ‐ ‐ 69 100 ‐ 64 4 342Vacancy Rate* ‐ 7.6% ‐ ‐ ‐ 4.3% 4.0% ‐ n/a 0.0% 4.4%Active Adult ‐ For‐SaleUnits ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 55 ‐ 76 ‐ 131Vacancy Rate* ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 0.0% ‐ 0.0% ‐ 0.0%Congregate ‐ Optional ServicesUnits ‐ 346 ‐ 35 29 ‐ 86 ‐ 207 86 789Vacancy Rate* ‐ 0.0% ‐ 0.0% 0.0% ‐ 0.0% ‐ 1.0% 2.3% 1.4%Congregate ‐ Service IntensiveUnits ‐ 56 ‐ ‐ ‐ 117 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 173Vacancy Rate* ‐ 0.0% ‐ ‐ ‐ 5.2% ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 3.5%Assisted LivingUnits ‐ 227 ‐ 81 61 60 85 ‐ 262 62 838Vacancy Rate* ‐ 4.8% ‐ 7.4% 9.8% 6.6% 3.5% ‐ 7.1% 12.9% 6.6%Memory CareUnits ‐ 84 ‐ 52 34 90 40 ‐ 142 62 504Vacancy Rate* ‐ 2.4% ‐ 13.5% 8.8% 10.1% 0.0% ‐ 15.5% 3.2% 8.5%TotalUnits40 1,122 ‐ 416 152 547 658 ‐ 841 364 4,140Vacancy Rate 0.0% 2.5% 3.1% 5.9% 4.4% 1.8% 4.2% 3.6% 3.2%* Vacancy rate excludes properties in initial lease up phase.Note: Totals include Redwoods Apartments in Woodbury which is scheduled to open fall 2017.Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLCTABLE S‐5SENIOR HOUSING SUMMARY BY WASHINGTON COUNTY SUBMARKETFEBRUARY 2017
SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 210 3421317891738385041,3630
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
Adult Rental Adult ‐ For‐
Sale
Cong. ‐ Opt.
Svs.
Cong. ‐ Svs.
Int.
AL MC Shallow/Deep
S.
Service Level
Washington County Senior Housing Inventory
4.4%
0.0%
1.4%
3.5%
6.4%
8.5%
0.6%
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0%
Adult Rental
Adult ‐ For‐Sale
Cong. ‐ Opt. Svs.
Cong. ‐ Svs. Int.
AL
MC
Shallow/Deep S.
Vacancy RateService LevelWashington County Senior Vacancy Rates
PLANNED & PENDING HOUSING DEVELOPMENTS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 211
Planned and Proposed Residential Developments
Maxfield Research contacted municipal staff members in communities throughout Washington
County order to identify housing developments under construction, planned, or pending. Table
P‐1 inventories and summarizes the number of housing units by product type that are either
recently completed, under construction, or are planned to move forward.
There are an estimated 5,273 housing units in the development pipeline either under
construction, planned, or pending. An estimated 36% of the housing units would be located
in Lake Elmo and another 25% would be located in Woodbury.
Approximately 72% of the housing units planned to move forward in Washington County
are single‐family homes (3,800 housing units). A portion of some of the single‐family plats
may also contain detached villas, twinhomes, townhomes or rowhomes.
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Single‐Family Townhomes Senior ApartmentsNumber of UnitsResidential Development Pipeline‐Wash. Co.
January 2017
Inspiration in Bayport, proposed by Mattamy Homes is a replat to larger lot single‐family
and senior housing. As Mattamy recently announced, it is pulling out of the Twin Cities
market, this property may be sold to another developer.
PLANNED & PENDING HOUSING DEVELOPMENTS MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 212 Lots/ Market RateProjectedSubdivision/Project Name City Submarket Address/Intersection Units Project Type vs. Aff./Subs. Developer/Builder/Applicant Project Status OccupancyWhite Bear Lake Mahtomedi 9th Street & Georgia Avenue 8 Single Family Market Rate Build out as purchased 3 lots built outWhite Bear Heights White Bear Lake Mahtomedi 4650 Centerville Road113 Senior (IL/AL/MC) Market Rate Oppidan/Ebenezer Under Construction Open Spring 2017Inwood Lake Elmo Lake Elmo 5th Street North and Inwood Avenue North 537 Single Family Market Rate Under ConstructionLakeridge Crossing Lake Elmo Lake Elmo Lower 8th Street North and Juniper Ave. N. 163 Single Family Market Rate Preliminary PlatSavona Lake Elmo Lake Elmo 5th Street North and Keats Avenue N. 310Single Family Market Rate Lennar Under ConstructionBoulder Ponds Lake Elmo Lake Elmo Jade Trail N. and Hudson Blvd. North 162 Single Family Market Rate Under ConstructionEaston Village Lake Elmo Lake Elmo Manning Avenue N. and 32nd Street North 217 Single Family Market Rate Final Plat ApprovalsWildflower at Lake Elmo Lake Elmo Lake Elmo 39th Street North and Blazingstar Lane N. 143 Single Family Market Rate Final Plat ApprovalsHunters Crossing Lake Elmo Lake Elmo Langley Ave. N. and 3rd Street North 51 Single Family Market Rate Under ConstructionVillage Preserve Lake Elmo Lake Elmo Lake Elmo Ave. N. and 41st Street North 97 Single Family Market Rate Under ConstructionLegends of Lake Elmo Lake Elmo Lake Elmo 41 Single Family Market RateWithdrawnArbor Glen Lake Elmo Lake Elmo 11020 39th Street North 84 Senior (IL/AL/MC) Market Rate Frisbie Architects Proposed Rezoning & Conditional Use PermitSouthwind of Lake Elmo Lake Elmo Lake Elmo 5th Street and Lake Elmo Avenue 48 Twinhomes Market Rate Diedrich Reider Preliminary PlatHidden Meadows Lake Elmo Lake Elmo 56th Place N and Keats Avenue 25Single‐Family Market Rate Preliminary PlatVillage Preserve Lake Elmo Lake Elmo Lake Elmo Ave. N. and 41st Street North ‐ Single‐Family Market Rate Preliminary PlatAdelaide Landing Hugo Hugo East of TH 61/N 130th 319 Single Family Market Rate Excelsior Group Planning ReviewLeroux Site Hugo Hugo N. of Prairie Village/Oneka Elem. School 152 Single Family Market Rate Pratt Homes No Application ReceivedJohnson Property Hugo Hugo South of Cty. Rd. 8 at Oneka Parkway 30 Single Family Market Rate DR Horton No Application ReceivedChestnut Creek Forest Lake Forest Lake 208th Street N and Hardwood Rd. 108 Single Family Market Rate Northern Land, LLC Final Plat Approval & 10 permits issuedChestnut Creek II Forest Lake Forest Lake 208th Street N and Hardwood Rd. 112 Single Family Market Rate Northern Land, LLC Preliminary Plat ApprovalGateway Green Apartments Forest Lake Forest Lake 82 Apartment Market Rate Kason, Inc. Final PUD Amendment/CUP Approval Lighthouse Lofts Forest Lake Forest Lake Old City Hall Site 99 Apartment Market Rate Gaughan Companies Concept PlaningJ. Michael Homes St. Paul Park Cottage Grove Second Street 6 Single Family Market Rate J. Michael Homes Under ConstructionNo Name Newport Cottage Grove 1105 5th Avenue 9 Single Family Market Rate City of Newport Proposed ‐ No ApplicationRed Rock Square Newport Cottage Grove 150 Red Rock Crossing 42 Apartment Affordable Red Rock Square LP Under ConstructionDale Ridge Villas Woodbury Woodbury 9373 Dale Road 38 Single Family Market Rate Dale Ritter ApprovedStonemill Farms 15th Addition Woodbury Woodbury Lake Road and Settler's Ridge Parkway 43 Townhomes Market Rate The Pointe at Stonemill Farms Proposed21 Oaks Woodbury Woodbury Dale Road and Compass Road 123 Single Family Market Rate Tradition Companies ApprovedCopper Ridge Woodbury Woodbury Pioneer Drive 383 Single Family & Rowhomes Market Rate DR Horton ProposedFairhaven Woodbury Woodbury South of Dale Road/East of Pioneer 112 Single Family Market Rate Lennar ProposedBridlewood Woodbury Woodbury East of Radio Drive/North of Dale Road 331 Single Family Market Rate Lennar ProposedSettlers Ridge Woodbury Woodbury Settlers Ridge Parkway 216 Senior (IL) Affordable Dominium ProposedThe Glen at Valley Creek Woodbury Woodbury 7987 Afton Road 42 Senior (IL) Affordable Washington County CDA ProposedPrelude Village Townhomes Woodbury Woodbury NW Corner of Bailey Rd. and Alexandria Drive 20 Senior (IL) Market Rate Emmaus CorporationProposedNelson Estates Afton Southeast 1093 Indian Trail Path 4 Single Family Market Rate Joseph Guy Reithmeyer Final Plat ApprovalAfton Estates Afton Southeast 60th Street West of Trading Post Trail 19 Single Family Market Rate Will Carlson Planing ReviewInspiration Bayport Stillwater Off of Stagecoach Trail 76 Single Family Market Rate Mattamy Homes Replat of OriginalInspiration Bayport Stillwater Off of Stagecoach Trail 60 Senior (IL) Market Rate Mattamy Homes Preliminary PlatWutherford Station Stillwater Stillwater 3605 Wright Street 25 Single Family Market Rate CalAtlantic Homes ApprovedStillwater Preserve Stillwater Stillwater Boutwell Road N. and Marquee Ct. 8 Single Family Market Rate Dreamstructure‐Design Build ApprovedPonds at Heifort Hills Stillwater Stillwater 8753 Neal Avenue North 120 Single Family Market Rate Richard Gagne Phase I ‐ Under ConstructionEcumen Stillwater Stillwater Adjacent to Our Savior's Lutheran Church 230 Senior (IL/AL/MC) Market Rate Ecumen ApprovedPalmer Estates Oak Park Heights Stillwater Oakgreen Avenue and Oak Park Boulevard N. 13 Single Family Market Rate Creative Homes Conditional ApprovalOakridge Senior Living Oak Park Heights Stillwater 30 Senior (MC) Market Rate TIC Properties CC ApprovalBrown Farm Division Cottage Grove Cottage Grove 9870 Kimbro Avenue South 2 Single Family Market Rate Janet Bremer Rezoning & Preliminary PlatGrayson Meadows Cottage Grove Cottage Grove North of 70th Street S./East of Jamaica Avenue 45 Single Family Market Rate D.R. Horton Rezoning & Preliminary PlatSummerhill Crossing 4th Addition Cottage Grove Cottage Grove 70th Street and Hinton Avenue 2 Single Family Market Rate Lehman Equity Management Preliminary PlatLegends of Cottage Grove Cottage Grove Cottage Grove 6999 East Point Douglas Rd. 184 Senior (IL) Affordable Dominium Under Construction Norris Square Cottage Grove Cottage Grove 8200 Hadley Avenue South64 Senior (IL) Market Rate Presbyterian Homes PlannedNorris Squre Cottage Grove Cottage Grove 8200 Hadley Avenue South 72 Skilled Nursing Market Rate Presbyterian Homes PlannedErin Glen Denmark Twp. Southeast St. Croix Trail/70th Street S. 11 Single Family Market Rate Scott Goltz Spring 2017 Start DateWildwood Apts. Mahtomedi Mahtomedi 730 Wildwood Road 36 Apartment Market Rate TroyMathwig/Bank Mutual ApprovedNo Name May Twp. Northeast 5 Single Family Market Rate Discussion StageNo Name Birchwood Village Mahtomedi 1 Single family Market Rate Conditional ApprovalsTotal5,273Sources: Local government staff, Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLCDEVELOPMENT PIPELINEWASHINGTON COUNTYJANUARY 2017TABLE P‐1
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Introduction
Affordable housing is a term that has various definitions according to different people and is a
product of supply and demand. According to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban
Development (HUD), the definition of affordability is for a household to pay no more than 30%
of its annual income on housing (including utilities). Families who pay more than 30% of their
income for housing (either rent or mortgage) are considered cost burdened and may have
difficulty affording necessities such as food, clothing, transportation and medical care. HUD
also defines various levels of cost‐burden. For example, a household that pays 35% or more of
their income for housing is considered to be “moderately” cost‐burdened while a household
paying 50% or more of their income on housing is considered “severely” cost‐burdened.
Generally, housing that is income‐restricted to households earning at or below 80% of Area
Median Income (AMI) is considered affordable. However, many individual properties have
income restrictions set anywhere from 30% to 80% of AMI. Rent is not based on income but
instead is a contract amount that is affordable to households within the specific restricted
income segment. Moderate‐income housing, often referred to as “workforce housing,” refers
to rental and ownership housing. Therefore, the definition is broadly defined as housing that is
income‐restricted to households earning between 50% and 120% AMI. Figure 1 below summa‐
rizes income ranges by definition.
Definition
Extremely Low Income 0% ‐ 30%
Very Low Income 31% ‐ 50%
Low Income 51% ‐ 80%
Moderate Income | Workforce Housing 80% ‐ 120%
Note: Washington County 4‐person AMI = $85,800 (2016)
AMI Range
FIGURE 1
AREA MEDIAN INCOME (AMI) DEFINITIONS
Rent and Income Limits
Table HA‐1 shows the maximum allowable incomes by household size to qualify for affordable
housing and maximum gross rents that can be charged by bedroom size in Washington County.
These incomes are published and revised annually by the Department of Housing and Urban
Development (HUD) and also published separately by Minnesota Housing (MN Housing uses
different income percentages based on the housing programs that they administer) based on
the date the project was placed into service. Fair market rent is the amount needed to pay the
gross monthly rent for rental housing (overall market) in a given area. This table is used as a
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MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 214
basis for determining the payment standard amount used to calculate the maximum monthly
subsidy for families at financially assisted housing.
1 pph 2 phh 3 phh 4 phh 5 phh 6 phh 7 phh 8 phh
30% of median $18,030 $20,580 $23,160 $25,740 $27,810 $29,850 $31,920 $33,990
50% of median $30,050 $34,300 $38,600 $42,900 $46,350 $49,750 $53,200 $56,650
60% of median $36,060 $41,160 $46,320 $51,480 $55,620 $59,700 $63,840 $67,980
80% of median $48,080 $54,880 $61,760 $68,640 $74,160 $79,600 $85,120 $90,640
100% of median $60,100 $68,600 $77,200 $85,800 $92,700 $99,500 $106,400 $113,300
120% of median $72,120 $82,320 $92,640 $102,960 $111,240 $119,400 $127,680 $135,960
EFF 1BR 2BR 3BR 4BR
30% of median $450 $514 $579 $643 $695
50% of median $751 $857 $965 $1,072 $1,158
60% of median $901 $1,029 $1,158 $1,287 $1,390
80% of median $1,202 $1,372 $1,544 $1,716 $1,854
100% of median $1,502 $1,715 $1,930 $2,145 $2,317
120% of median $1,803 $2,058 $2,316 $2,574 $2,781
EFF 1BR 2BR 3BR 4BR
Fair Market Rent $699 $862 $1,086 $1,538 $1,799
Sources: MHFA, HUD, Novogradac, Maxfield Research and Consulting LLC
TABLE HA‐1
MHFA/HUD INCOME AND RENT LIMITS
WASHINGTON COUNTY‐ 2016
Income Limits by Household Size
Maximum Gross Rent
Final‐2017 Fair Market Rents
Table HA‐2 shows the maximum rents by household size and AMI based on income limits
illustrated in Table HA‐1. The rents on Table HA‐2 are based on HUD’s allocation that monthly
rents should not exceed 30% of income. In addition, the table reflects the maximum household
size based on HUD guidelines of number of persons per unit. For each additional bedroom, the
maximum household size increases by approximately two people. The Fair Market Rents
shown on Table HA‐2 are the final 2017 Fair Market Rents for Washington County as identified
by HUD. Between 2016 and 2017, Fair Market Rents increased from 5.7% to 6.6% over one
year. The largest increase was for studio units (6.6%) and the smallest was for two‐bedroom
units (5.7%). The average increase was 6.2%.
HOUSING AFFORDABILITY MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 215 Unit Type1Min Max Min. Max. Min. Max. Min. Max. Min. Max. Min. Max. Min. Max.Studio 1 1 $451 ‐ $451 $751 ‐ $751 $902 ‐ $902 $1,202 ‐ $1,202 $1,503 ‐ $1,503 $1,803 ‐ $1,8031BR 1 2 $451 ‐ $515 $751 ‐ $858 $902 ‐ $1,029 $1,202 ‐ $1,372 $1,503 ‐ $1,715$1,803 ‐ $2,0582BR 2 4 $515 ‐ $644 $858 ‐ $1,073 $1,029 ‐ $1,287 $1,372 ‐ $1,716 $1,715 ‐ $2,145 $2,058 ‐ $2,5743BR 3 6 $579 ‐ $746 $965 ‐ $1,244 $1,158 ‐ $1,493 $1,544 ‐ $1,990 $1,930 ‐ $2,488 $2,316 ‐ $2,9854BR 4 8 $644 ‐ $850 $1,073 ‐ $1,416 $1,287 ‐ $1,700 $1,716 ‐ $2,266 $2,145 ‐ $2,833 $2,574 ‐ $3,399Sources: HUD, Novogradac, Maxfield Research and Consulting, LLCTABLE HA‐21 One‐bedroom plus den and two‐bedroom plus den units are classified as 1BR and 2BR units, respectively. To be classified as a bedroom, a den must have a window and closet.MAXIMUM RENT BASED ON HOUSEHOLD SIZE AND AREA MEDIAN INCOMEWASHINGTON COUNTY ‐ 2016Note: 4‐person Washington County AMI is $85,800 (2016)HHD SizeMaximum Rent Based on Household Size (@30% of Income)30% 60% 80% 100% 120%50%
HOUSING AFFORDABILITY
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 216
Housing Cost Burden
Table HA‐3 shows the number and percent of owner and renter households in Minnesota,
Washington County, the Twin City MSA, and the individual Washington County submarkets that
pay 30% or more of their gross income for housing. This information was compiled from the
American Community Survey 2015 estimates. The Federal standard for affordability is 30% of
income for housing costs. Households are considered to be cost‐burdened if they pay more
than 30% of their gross income for housing costs. Moderately cost‐burdened is defined as
households paying between 35% and 49.9% of their income to housing; while severely cost‐
burdened is defined as households paying 50% or more of their income for housing.
Higher‐income households that are cost‐burdened may have the option of moving to lower
priced housing, but lower‐income households often do not. The figures focus on owner house‐
holds with incomes of $50,000 or less and renter households with incomes of $35,000 or less.
Key findings from Table HA‐3 follow.
In Washington County, nearly 20.9% of owner households and 44.4% of renter households
are considered cost burdened. Washington County has a lower proportion of owner
households that are cost burdened than the other six counties in the Twin Cities Metro, the
Metro Area as a whole (22.5%) and Minnesota (22.1%). Washington County has a slightly
lower proportion of cost‐burdened renter households (44.4%) than Anoka, Hennepin and
Ramsey Counties, but is nearly equal to Dakota County (44.3%). Washington County is also
lower than the Twin Cities Metro (46.6%) and Minnesota (45.3%).
Among owner households earning less than $50,000, 56.5% were cost burdened in Wash‐
ington County. This is lower than Dakota, Hennepin and Scott Counties, but slightly higher
than Carver and Ramsey Counties. It is also lower than the Twin Cities Metro (58.1%), but
higher than Minnesota (50.4%).
An estimated 75.5% of Washington County renter households that earn less than $35,000
were cost burdened. This is lower than most of the other counties, except for Carver Coun‐
ty, which had a renter cost burden proportion of 74.6%. Washington County was also mod‐
estly lower than the Twin Cities Metro, but higher than Minnesota.
The proportion of cost burdened households in Washington County among all households
25.5% was nearly equal to Carver County (21.1%), but is slightly lower for most of the other
counties in the Twin Cities Metro except for Ramsey County (14.1%).
The median contract rent in Washington County is the highest among all of the seven Metro
Area counties and Minnesota.
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MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 217
Community No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct.
Owner Households
All Owner Households 99,522 27,654 116,951
Cost Burden 30% or greater 21,691 21.8% 5,784 24.2% 24,911 22.1%
Owner Households w/ incomes $50,000 or less 24,462 5,040 24,162
Cost Burden 30% or greater 13,620 55.7% 2,637 197.5% 14,430 59.7%
Renter Households
All Renter Households 24,955 6,767 39,515
Cost Burden 30% or greater 12,234 49.3% 2,860 42.3% 17,497 44.3%
Renter Households w/incomes $35,000 or less 11,478 2,825 16,788
Cost Burden 30% or greater 9,440 82.7% 2,108 74.6% 13,748 81.9%
All Households
All Households 124,477 34,421 156,466
Cost Burden 30% or greater 33,925 27.3% 8,644 25.1% 42,408 27.1%
Median Contract Rent1
1 Median Contract Rent 2015
Note: Calculations exclude households not computed.
CONTINUED
$884 $877 $887
TABLE HA‐3
HOUSING COST BURDEN
WASHINGTON COUNTY, TWIN CITY MSA, MINNESOTA
2015
Anoka County Carver County Dakota County
HOUSING AFFORDABILITY
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 218
Community No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct.
Owner Households
All Owner Households 307,395 122,117 38,309
Cost Burden 30% or greater 71,961 23.4% 27,718 23.4% 8,536 22.1%
Owner Households w/ incomes $50,000 or less 73,442 33,123 6,586
Cost Burden 30% or greater 44,329 60.4% 18,083 61.5% 3,978 50.4%
Renter Households
All Renter Households 182,801 84,740 7,896
Cost Burden 30% or greater 84,579 46.3% 41,584 49.1% 3,424 43.4%
Renter Households w/incomes $35,000 or less 86,602 45,682 3,340
Cost Burden 30% or greater 67,661 78.2% 35,004 76.6% 2,565 76.8%
All Households
All Households 490,196 206,857 46,205
Cost Burden 30% or Greater 156,540 31.9% 69,302 14.1% 11,960 25.9%
Median Contract Rent1
1 Median Contract Rent 2015
Note: Calculations exclude households not computed.
CONTINUED
$874 $789 $923
TABLE HA‐3
HOUSING COST BURDEN
SEVEN COUNTIES, TWIN CITY METRO, MINNESOTA
2015
Hennepin County Ramsey County Scott County
HOUSING AFFORDABILITY
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 219
Community No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct.
Owner Households
All Owner Households 72,864 785,412 1,522,618
Cost Burden 30% or greater 15,198 20.9% 175,799 22.4% 334,738 22.0%
Owner Households w/ incomes $50,000 or less 14,549 181,364 443,510
Cost Burden 30% or greater 8,221 56.5% 105,298 58.1% 223,625 50.4%
Renter Households
All Renter Households 18,068 364,742 602,127
Cost Burden 30% or greater 7,957 44.0% 170,135 46.6% 272,894 45.3%
Renter Households w/incomes $35,000 or less 7,400 174,115 316,969
Cost Burden 30% or greater 5,584 75.5% 136,110 78.2% 228,441 72.1%
All Households
All Households 90,932 1,150,154 2,124,745
Cost Burden 30% or greater 23,155 25.5% 345,934 30.1% 607,632 28.6%
Median Contract Rent1
1 Median Contract Rent 2015
Note: Calculations exclude households not computed.
Sources: American Community Survey 2015 estimates; Maxfield Research and Consulting LLC
TABLE HA‐3
HOUSING COST BURDEN
WASHINGTON COUNTY, TWIN CITY MSA, MINNESOTA
2015
Washington County Twin Cities Metro Minnesota
$1,011 $886 $759
21.8%20.9%21.3%23.4%22.7%22.3%20.9%22.4%22.0%
55.7%52.3%
59.7%60.4%
54.6%
60.4%56.5%58.1%
50.4%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%AnokaCountyCarverCountyDakotaCountyHennepinCountyRamseyCountyScottCountyWashington CountyTwin CityMetroMinnesotaCost Burdened Owner Households, Seven Counties
Twin Cities Metro and Minnesota, 2015
All Owner HHs Owner HHs <$50k
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MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 220
49.0%
42.3%44.3%46.3%49.1%
43.4%44.0%46.6%45.3%
82.2%
74.6%
81.9%78.1%76.6%76.8%75.5%78.2%
72.1%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%AnokaCountyCarverCountyDakotaCountyHennepinCountyRamseyCountyScottCountyWashington CountyTwin CityMetroMinnesotaCost Burdened Renter Households, Seven Counties,
Twin Cities Metro and Minnesota, 2015
All Renter HHs Renter HHs <$35k
49.0%
42.3%44.3%46.3%49.1%
43.4%44.0%46.6%45.3%
21.8%20.9%21.3%23.4%22.7%22.3%20.9%22.4%22.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%AnokaCountyCarverCountyDakotaCountyHennepinCountyRamseyCountyScott CountyWashingtonCountyTwin CityMetroMinnesotaCost Burdened Households, Seven Counties,
Twin Cities Metro and Minnesota, 2015
All Renter HHs All Owner HHs
HOUSING AFFORDABILITY
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 221
Housing Choice Vouchers
In addition to properties that provide rental assistance to tenants on‐site through a project‐
based subsidy, “tenant‐based” subsidies such as Housing Choice Vouchers, can help lower
income households afford market‐rate rental housing. The tenant‐based subsidy is funded by
the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and is managed by the Washington
County CDA. Under the Housing Choice Voucher program (in the past, also referred to as
Section 8) qualified households are issued a voucher that the household can take to an apart‐
ment that has rent levels within the payment standards set by the Department of Housing and
Urban Development in concert with the local administrative agency. The household then pays
approximately 30% of their adjusted gross income for rent and utilities, and the Federal gov‐
ernment pays the remainder of the rent to the landlord. The maximum income limit to be
eligible for a Housing Choice Voucher is 50% AMI based on household size, as shown in Table
HA‐1. The following are key points about the Housing Choice Voucher Program in Washington
County.
The Washington County CDA currently has 469 housing choice vouchers in utilization. The
Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) has allocated only 90 vouchers to
the county. Therefore, the CDA administers 419 on a port‐in basis. There are 50 house‐
holds on the wait list and these households have been on the wait list for a number of
years. Turnover of vouchers is approximately two to three per year, but with the potential
for additional budget cuts to the program, it is not certain how many new households
would be able to be served through turnover.
Housing Costs as Percentage of Household Income
Housing costs are generally considered affordable at 30% of a households’ adjusted gross
income. Table HA‐4 on the following page illustrates key housing metrics based on housing
costs and household incomes in Washington County for various submarkets. The table esti‐
mates the percent of submarket households that can afford rental and for‐sale housing based
on a 30% allocation of income to housing. Housing costs are based on the average for each
submarket.
The housing affordability calculations assume the following:
For‐Sale Housing
10% down payment with good credit score
Closing costs rolled into mortgage
30‐year mortgage at 4.25% interest rate
Private mortgage insurance (equity of less than 20%)
Homeowners insurance for single‐family homes and association dues for townhomes
Owner household income per 2015 ACS
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MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 222
Rental Housing
Background check on tenant to ensure credit history
30% allocation of income
Renter household income per 2015 ACS
Because of the down payment requirements and generally strict underwriting criteria for a
mortgage, not all households will meet the income qualifications outlined above. The for‐sale
affordability analysis excludes equity that a homeowner may bring with them when purchasing
a new residence.
The median income for all households in Washington County as of 2016 was an estimated
$85,126. Median incomes however, vary by tenure (owner and renter). According to the
2015 American Community Survey, the median income of a Washington County homeown‐
er was $94,103 compared to $43,539 for renters.
According to the 2016 income distribution for Washington County, 77% of all households
and 83% of owner households could afford to purchase an entry‐level home in Washington
County ($180,000). When adjusting for move‐up buyers ($350,000), an estimated 57% of all
households and 72% of owner households would income‐qualify.
About 52% of existing renter households can afford to rent a one‐bedroom unit in Washing‐
ton County (Avg. 1BR Rent‐$1,066/month). The percentage of renter income‐qualified
households decreases to 35% that can afford an existing three‐bedroom unit
($1,582/month). After adjusting for new construction rental housing, the percentage of
renter households that are income‐qualified decreases. An estimated 45% of renters would
be able to afford a new market rate one‐bedroom unit ($1,200 per month) while 23% could
afford a new two‐bedroom unit ($2,000 per month) and 13.4% could afford a new three‐
bedroom unit.
For the county as a whole, the median price of a single‐family home at the end of 2016 was
$260,000. At this price and assuming a 10% downpayment and good credit and no addi‐
tional equity from a previous home, the household would require an annual income of
$64,438. An estimated 65.4% of all county households would qualify based on income.
At an average overall rent of $1,165 per month for all market rate rental units in the county,
44% of renter households could afford to pay this monthly rent or approximately 8,800
households. Another 11,100 renter households in the county could not afford this level of
rent as of 2016.
HOUSING AFFORDABILITY MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 223 Washington Cty.Entry‐Level Move‐Up Executive Entry‐Level Move‐Up Executive County‐WidePrice of House $250,000 $350,000 $550,000 $150,000 $260,000 $400,000 $260,000Pct. Down Payment 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%Total Down Payment Amt. $25,000 $35,000 $55,000 $15,000 $26,000 $40,000 $26,000Estimated Closing Costs (rolled into mortgage) $7,500 $10,500 $16,500 $4,500 $7,800 $12,000 $7,800Cost of Loan $232,500 $325,500 $511,500 $139,500 $241,800 $372,000 $241,800Interest Rate 4.250% 4.250% 4.250% 4.250% 4.250% 4.250% 4.250%Number of Pmts. 360 360 360 360 360 360 360Monthly Payment (P & I)‐$1,144 ‐$1,601 ‐$2,516 ‐$686 ‐$1,190 ‐$1,830 ‐$1,190(plus) Prop. Tax‐$208 ‐$292 ‐$458 ‐$125 ‐$217 ‐$333 ‐$217(plus) HO Insurance/Assoc. Fee for TH‐$83 ‐$117 ‐$183 ‐$100 ‐$100 ‐$100 ‐$100(plus) PMI/MIP (less than 20%)‐$101 ‐$141 ‐$222 ‐$60 ‐$105 ‐$161 ‐$105Subtotal monthly costs‐$1,536 ‐$2,151 ‐$3,380 ‐$972 ‐$1,611 ‐$2,425 ‐$1,611Housing Costs as % of Income 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30%Minimum Income Required $61,447 $86,026 $135,184 $38,868 $64,438 $96,982 $64,438Pct. of ALL Washington Co. HHDS who can afford165.9% 57.3% 31.5% 81.1% 65.4% 43.0% 65.4%No. of Washington Co. HHDS who can afford158,795 51,084 28,128 72,371 58,371 38,389 58,371Pct. of Washington County owner HHDs who can afford270.7% 72.4% 28.5% 85.9% 70.1% 47.8% 70.1%No. of Washington Co. HHDs who can afford258,206 59,603 23,462 70,713 57,708 39,351 57,708No. of Washington Co. owner HHDS who cannot afford224,129 22,732 58,873 11,622 24,627 42,984 24,627Washington Cty.1BR 2BR 3BR 1BR 2BR 3BR Overall RentMonthly Rent $1,064 $1,339 $1,582 $1,250 $2,000 $2,600 $1,165Annual Rent $12,768 $16,068 $18,984 $15,000 $24,000 $31,200 $13,980Housing Costs as % of Income 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30%Minimum Income Required $42,560 $53,560 $63,280 $50,000 $80,000 $104,000 $46,600Pct. of ALL Washington Co. HHDS who can afford176.2% 71.2% 64.6% 56.4% 53.3% 39.5% 73.1%No. of Washington Co. HHDS who can afford167,976 63,554 57,649 50,283 47,577 35,246 65,249Pct. of Washington Co. renter HHDs who can afford252.2% 42.6% 34.7% 45.3% 23.2% 13.4% 44.1%No. of Washington Co. renter HHDs who can afford210,413 8,499 6,912 9,035 4,619 2,669 8,807No. of Washington Co. renter HHDS who cannot afford29,532 11,446 13,033 10,910 15,326 17,276 11,1441 Based on 2016 household income for ALL households2 Based on 2015 ACS household income by tenure (i.e. owner and renter incomes. Owner incomes = $94,103 vs. renter incomes = $43,539)Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLCExisting Rental New RentalTABLE HA‐4Single‐Family Townhome/Twinhome/CondoWASHINGTON COUNTY HOUSING AFFORDABILITY ‐ BASED ON HOUSEHOLD INCOMEFor‐Sale (Assumes 10% down payment and good credit) (Excludes prior home equity)Rental (Market Rate)
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MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 224
Introduction
Previous sections of this study analyzed the existing housing supply and the growth and demo‐
graphic characteristics of the population and household base in Washington County. This
section of the report presents our estimates of housing demand in the County from 2013
through 2030.
Demographic Profile and Housing Demand
The demographic profile of a community affects housing demand and the types of housing that
are needed. The housing life‐cycle stages are:
1. Entry‐level householders
Often prefer to rent basic, inexpensive apartments
Usually singles or couples in their early 20’s without children
Will often “double‐up” with roommates in apartment setting
2. First‐time homebuyers and move‐up renters
Often prefer to purchase modestly‐priced single‐family homes or rent
more upscale apartments
Usually married or cohabiting couples, in their mid‐20's or 30's, some
with children, but most are without children
3. Move‐up homebuyers
Typically prefer to purchase newer, larger, and therefore more ex‐
pensive single‐family homes
Typically families with children where householders are in their late
30's to 40's
4. Empty‐nesters (persons whose children have grown and left home) and nev‐
er‐nesters (persons who never have children)
Prefer owning but will consider renting their housing
Some will move to alternative lower‐maintenance housing products
Generally couples in their 50's or 60's
5. Younger independent seniors
Prefer owning but will consider renting their housing
Will often move (at least part of the year) to retirement havens in the
Sunbelt and desire to reduce their responsibilities for upkeep and
maintenance
Generally in their late 60's or 70's
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MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 225
6. Older seniors
May need to move out of their single‐family home due to physical
and/or health constraints or a desire to reduce their responsibilities
for upkeep and maintenance
Generally single females (widows) in their mid‐70's or older
Demand for housing can come from several sources including: household growth, changes in
housing preferences, and replacement need. Household growth necessitates building new
housing unless there is enough desirable vacant housing available to absorb the increase in
households. Demand is also affected by shifting demographic factors such as the aging of the
population, which dictates the type of housing preferred. New housing to meet replacement
need is required, even in the absence of household growth, when existing units no longer meet
the needs of the population and when renovation is not feasible because the structure is
physically or functionally obsolete.
Because of the relatively young age of the county’s housing stock and the fact that redevelop‐
ment has not taken a significant number of homes out of the market, demand for housing in
Washington County will be driven almost exclusively by household growth. Between 2016 and
2020, Washington County is projected to see an increase of approximately 8,000 households.
Between 2020 and 2030, another 13,930 households are projected to be added. Since each
household equates to an occupied housing unit, the county will need to build an equal number
of housing units to support this growth – or approximately 22,000 housing units by 2030.
The graphic on the following page provides greater detail of various housing types supported
within each housing life cycle. Information on square footage, average bedrooms/bathrooms,
and lot size is provided on the subsequent graphic.
Housing Demand Overview
The previous sections of this assessment focused on demographic and economic factors driving
demand for housing in Washington County. In this section, we utilize findings from the eco‐
nomic and demographic analysis to calculate demand for new general occupancy housing units
in the county. In addition, we present housing demand for each submarket in the county.
Housing markets are driven by a range of supply and demand factors that vary by location and
submarket. The following bullet points outline several of the key variables driving housing
demand.
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING LLC 226Age Student Rental 1st‐time Move‐up 2nd Empty Nester/ SeniorCohort Housing Housing Home Buyer Home Buyer Home Buyer Downsizer Housing18‐2418 ‐ 2425‐2930‐3435‐3940‐4445‐4950‐5455‐5960‐6465‐6970‐7475‐7980‐8485+Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLCDEMOGRAPHICS & HOUSING DEMAND18‐3465‐7925‐3930‐4940‐6455‐7455+ & 65+
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 227
Target Market/ Unit/Home Lot Sizes/
Demographic Characteristics Units Per Acre1
Entry‐level single‐family 1,200 to 2,200 sq. ft.80'+ wide lot
2‐4 BR | 2 BA 2.5‐3.0 DU/Acre
Move‐up single‐family 2,000 sq. ft.+ 80'+ wide lot
3‐4 BR | 2‐3 BA 2.5‐3.0 DU/Acre
Executive single‐family 2,500 sq. ft.+ 100'+ wide lot
3‐4 BR | 2‐3 BA 1.5‐2.0 DU/Acre
Small‐lot single‐family 1,700 to 2,500 sq. ft. 40' to 60' wide lot
3‐4 BR | 2‐3 BA 5.0‐8.0 DU/Acre
Entry‐level townhomes 1,200 to 1,600 sq. ft. 6.0‐12.0 DU/Acre
2‐3 BR | 1.5BA+
Move‐up townhomes 1,400 to 2,000 sq. ft. 6.0‐8.0. DU/Acre
2‐3 BR | 2BA+
Executive townhomes/twinhomes 2,000+ sq. ft. 4.0‐6.0 DU/Acre
3 BR+ | 2BA+
Detached Townhome 2,000+ sq. ft. 4.0‐6.0 DU/Acre
3 BR+ | 2BA+
Condominums 800 to 1,700 sq. ft. Low‐rise: 18.0‐24.0 DU/Acre
1‐2 BR | 1‐2 BA Mid‐rise: 25.0+ DU/Acre
Hi‐rise: 75.0+ DU/Acre
Apartment‐style rental housing 675 to 1,250 sq. ft. Low‐rise: 18.0‐24.0 DU/Acre
1‐3 BR | 1‐2 BA Mid‐rise: 25.0+ DU/Acre
Hi‐rise: 75.0+ DU/Acre
Townhome‐style rental housing 900 to 1,700 sq. ft. 8.0‐12.0 DU/Acre
2‐4 BR | 2BA
Student rental housing 550 to 1,400 sq. ft. Low‐rise: 18.0‐24.0 DU/Acre
1‐4BR | 1‐2 BA Mid‐rise: 25.0+ DU/Acre
Hi‐rise: 50.0+ DU/Acre
Senior housing 550 to 1,500 sq. ft. Varies considerably based on
Suites ‐ 2BR | 1‐2 BA senior product type
Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Housing Types
TYPICAL HOUSING TYPE CHARACTERISTICS
First‐time buyers: Singles,
couples w/no children
First‐time buyers: Families,
couples w/no children, some
singles
Step‐up buyers: Families,
couples w/no children
Step‐up buyers: Families,
couples w/no children
For‐Sale HousingRental HousingBothSingle‐parents, families
w/children, empty nesters
Retirees, Seniors
Singles, couples, single‐parents,
some families, seniors
First‐time & step‐up buyers:
Singles, couples, some families,
empty‐nesters
College students, mostly
undergraduates
Step‐up buyers: Empty‐nesters,
retirees
Step‐up buyers: Empty‐nesters,
retirees, some families
First‐time & step‐up buyers:
Singles, couples, empty‐nesters,
retirees
First‐time & move‐down buyers:
Families, couples w/no children,
empty nesters, retirees
Demographics
Demographics are major influences that drive housing demand. Household growth and for‐
mations are critical (natural growth, immigration, etc.), as well as household types, size, age of
householders, incomes, etc.
Economy & Job Growth
The economy and housing market are intertwined; the health of the housing market affects the
broader economy and vice versa. Housing market growth depends on job growth (or the
prospect of); jobs generate income growth which results in the formation of more households.
Historically low unemployment rates have driven both existing home purchases and new‐home
purchases. Lack of job growth leads to slow or diminishing household growth, which in‐turn
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 228
relates to reduced housing demand. Additionally, low income growth results in fewer move‐up
buyers which results in diminished housing turnover across all income brackets.
Consumer Choice/Preferences
A variety of factors contribute to consumer choice and preferences. Many times a change in
family status is the primary factor for a change in housing type (i.e. growing families, empty‐
nest families, etc.). However, housing demand is also generated from the turnover of existing
households who decide to move for a range of reasons. Some households may want to move‐
up, downsize, change their tenure status (i.e. owner to renter or vice versa), or simply move to
a new location.
Supply (Existing Housing Stock)
The stock of existing housing is a crucial component in the demand for new housing. There are
a variety of unique household types and styles, not all of which are desirable to today’s con‐
sumers. The age of the housing stock is an important component for housing demand, as
communities with aging housing stocks have higher demand for remodeling services, replace‐
ment new construction, or new home construction as the current inventory does not provide
the supply that consumers seek.
Pent‐up demand may also exist if supply is unavailable as householders postpone a move until
new housing product becomes available.
Housing Finance
Household income is the fundamental measure that dictates what a householder can afford to
pay for housing costs. According to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
(HUD), the definition of affordability is for a household to pay no more than 30% of its annual
income on housing (including utilities). Families who pay more than 30% of their income for
housing (either rent or mortgage) are considered cost burdened and may have difficulty afford‐
ing necessities such as food, clothing, transportation and medical care.
The ability of buyers to obtain mortgage financing has been increasingly challenging over the
past few years as lenders have overcorrected from the subprime mortgage crisis. As a result,
many borrowers have remained on the sidelines as lenders have enforced tight lending re‐
quirements, thereby increasing the demand for rental housing.
Mobility
It is important to note that demand is somewhat fluid between submarkets and will be impact‐
ed by development activity in nearby areas, including other communities outside Washington
County. Demand given for each submarket may be lower or higher if proposed and/or planned
developments move forward. For example, if a senior housing project moves ahead in Lake
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 229
Elmo, Lake Elmo may also capture a portion of Woodbury and Oakdale submarkets’ potential
demand. Consequently, Woodbury and Oakdale could capture lower demand.
For‐Sale Housing Market Demand Analysis
Tables DMD‐1 and DMD‐2 presents our demand calculations for general occupancy for‐sale
housing in Washington County between 2016 and 2020 and between 2020 and 2030, respec‐
tively. This analysis identifies potential demand for general occupancy for‐sale housing that is
generated from both new households and turnover households. The following points summa‐
rize our findings.
Because the 65 and older cohort is typically not a target market for new general occupancy
for‐sale housing, we limit demand from household growth to only those households under
the age of 65. According to our projections, the County is expected to grow by 4,745
households under age 65 between 2016 and 2020.
Demand for ownership housing in Washington County is projected to remain strong, as the
fringe of the Twin Cities Metro Area continues to expand outward into the county and the
housing market continues to improve. Most of the land closer to the core of the Twin Cities
is fully developed, with little land available to accommodate new housing, particularly sin‐
gle‐family homes. Thus, Washington County will account for an increasingly greater share
of the Twin Cities overall single‐family housing development.
Based on household tenure data from the US Census, we expect that between 72.7% of the
demand (Stillwater) to 90.8% of the demand (Lake Elmo) will be for owner‐occupied hous‐
ing units, equating to a potential 3,888 owner households from household growth.
As of 2016, there are an estimated 59,263 owner households under the age of 65 in the
county. Based on household turnover data from the 2011‐2015 American Community Sur‐
vey, we estimate that between 11.9% and 31.8% of these under‐65 owner households will
experience turnover between 2016 and 2020 (turnover rate varies by submarket). This es‐
timate results in anticipated turnover of 9,600 existing households by 2020.
We then estimate the percent of existing owner households turning over that would prefer
to purchase new housing. Throughout the United States, approximately 8% of all home
sales were for new homes over the past three years while slightly over 5% of Midwest sales
were for new homes. Considering the age of the county’s housing stock, we estimate that
between 5%‐10% of the households turning over will desire new housing. This estimate re‐
sults in demand from existing households for 919 new residential units in the county be‐
tween 2016 and 2020.
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 230
Total demand from household growth and existing household turnover between 2016 and
2020 equates to 4,807 new for‐sale housing units.
New single‐family homes built in Washington County between 2016 and 2020 are projected
to be move‐up and executive homes. Increased costs for building materials and labor, to‐
gether with a diminishing finished lot supply have made housing construction more expen‐
sive. Existing single‐family homes and new for‐sale townhomes will accommodate much of
the demand for modest homes.
The greatest percentage of new single‐family homes built in the Northeast, Southeast, and
Lake Elmo submarkets will be executive homes. These three submarkets will satisfy the ma‐
jority of the county’s demand for executive homes between 2016 and 2020.
While there are various target markets for multifamily ownership housing, the majority of
demand will be from younger households who have modest incomes and little savings or
equity in an existing home. Thus, the majority of multifamily demand will be for units
priced at about $250,000. Most of the demand for higher priced units will be from empty‐
nesters seeking to downsize from their existing single‐family homes into a one‐level town‐
home or similar style product.
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 231
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 232 DEMAND FROM NEW HOUSEHOLD GROWTHHousehold growth under age 65, 2016 to 2020(times) % propensity to own¹DEMAND FROM EXISTING HOUSEHOLDSEstimated Total owner households under age 65, 2016(times) % of owner turnover 2016‐2020²(times) % desiring new owner housingTOTAL MARKET DEMANDTotal demand from new HH growth and turnoverProportion Single‐family vs. Multifamily95% 5% 65% 35% 90% 10% 70% 30% 75% 25% 70% 30% 20% 80% 85% 15% 65% 35% 65% 35% 70% 30%No. of Single‐family vs. Multifamily Units159 8 254 137 95 11 441 189 581 194 17 7 20 81 396 70 797 429 599 322 3,359 1,448Single‐FamilyPercent Modest (<$350,000)NumberPercent Move‐up ($350,000 ‐ $550,000)NumberPercent Executive ($550,000+)NumberMultifamily³Percent Modest (<$250,000)NumberPercent Move‐up ($250,000+)Number¹ Based on percent owner households under age 65 in 2014 (2014 American Community Survey)² Based on household turnover and mobility data (2015 American Community Survey, Five Year Estimates)³ Includes twinhomes, townhomes, condos, etc.* Average of the submarkets.Note: Some totals do not add due to rounding.Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC8 96 11 113 126 6 40 52 279100% 70% 100% 60% 65% 80% 50% 75% 65%65% 40% 25%38%119 89 71 110 145 14 4 258 319 1501,27951%40 153 24 199 290 3 13 139 438 4191,7171,905 6,302 3,111 4,180 3,96257 16 37270%9215%167 391 106 630 774 24 101 466 1,226 4,807OakdaleWashingtonCountyLake Elmo WoodburyTABLE DMD‐1DEMAND FOR ADDITONAL FOR‐SALE HOUSINGWASHINGTON COUNTY2016 to 2020Northeast Stillwater Southeast Forest Lake Hugo Mahtomedi Cottage Grove4,74590.6% 72.7% 90.4% 74.1% 89.6% 89.4%172 449 98 796 794 0 77586.2%(Equals) Demand from new household growth156 326 89 590 71157 496 1,10876.1% 90.8% 77.1%66880.9%0 43 450 854 3,8886,691 1,992 15,36759,2633,746 12,0073630% 30% 0% 40% 35%0% 15% 0% 5%11%0 13 0 132 1450% 5% 0% 30% 25%3040%25%0410766803 0 4060% 25% 45% 50% 20% 65% 35% 55%75% 35% 75% 25% 25% 80% 20%1 40 17 15052320% 50% 25% 35%36%12960%64%1939259196%*16.2%11 65 17 40 63 245.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0%17.2% 16.1% 24.2%13.0% 21.1%10.0%253(Equals) Demand from existing households5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%11.9% 20.6% 11.0% 19.3% 31.8%
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 233 DEMAND FROM NEW HOUSEHOLD GROWTHHousehold growth under age 65, 2020 to 2030(times) % propensity to own¹DEMAND FROM EXISTING HOUSEHOLDSEstimated Total owner households under age 65, 2020(times) % of owner turnover 2020‐2030²(times) % desiring new owner housingTOTAL MARKET DEMANDTotal demand from new HH growth and turnoverProportion Single‐family vs. Multifamily90% 10% 60% 40% 85% 15% 65% 35% 75% 25% 60% 40% 15% 85% 80% 20% 55% 45% 60% 40% 66%34%No. of Single‐family vs. Multifamily Units293 33 221 148 83 15 665 358 1,339 446 29 20 21 117 773 193 935 765 1,145 763 5,5032,856Single‐FamilyPercent Modest (<$350,000)NumberPercent Move‐up ($350,000 ‐ $550,000)NumberPercent Executive ($550,000+)NumberMultifamily³Percent Modest (<$250,000)NumberPercent Move‐up ($250,000+)Number¹ Based on percent owner households under age 65 in 2014 (2014 American Community Survey)² Based on household turnover and mobility data (2011 and 2015 American Community Survey, Five Year Estimates)³ Includes twinhomes, townhomes, condos, etc.* Average of all submarketsNote: Some totals do not add due to rounding.Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC60%64%4581,82940% 25%37%2862,05140%36%3051,02737435%26880% 20% 65%5030% 30% 0% 40% 35% 20% 50% 25%0 44 0 143 156 4220 77 62 166 33547 5765275% 35% 75% 25% 25%8012,80125% 60% 25% 45% 50% 20% 65%73 133 21 299 669 6 5148,360325 369 98 1,0230% 5% 5%12%0% 5% 0% 30% 25% 0% 15%1,785 49 137 967 1,6995.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%1,9086.0%*(Equals) Demand from existing households13 72 18 495.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%1,01381 25 61 21 419 25413.0% 17.2% 16.1% 24.2% 21.1%16.2%7,111 2,669 17,325 12,08365,6033,81011.9% 20.6% 11.0% 19.3% 31.8%2,144 6,972 3,361 5,040 5,08876.1% 90.8% 77.1% 86.2%80.9%100 1,041 1,660 1,9188,80576 945 1,280 1,653 7,347(Equals) Demand from new household growth313 297 80 974 1,704TABLE DMD‐2DEMAND FOR ADDITONAL FOR‐SALE HOUSINGWASHINGTON COUNTY2020 to 2030Northeast Stillwater Southeast Forest Lake Hugo Mahtomedi55% 70%51%011Oakdale Lake Elmo Woodbury Cottage GroveWashingtonCounty90.6% 72.7% 90.4% 74.1% 89.6%345 409 88 1,315 1,90289.4%272423 40 199 335 0 358 4813 271035%100% 70% 100% 60% 65% 80% 50% 75% 65%33 103 15 215 290 16 58 145 497
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 234
Rental Housing Demand Analysis
Tables D‐3 and D‐4 presents our calculation of general‐occupancy rental housing demand for
Washington County. This analysis identifies potential demand for rental housing that is gener‐
ated from both new households and turnover households. Market rate housing is defined as
having no income restrictions, affordable housing is 80% or less AMI and subsidized is 50% or
less AMI.
According to our projections, Washington County is expected to grow by 4,745 households
under age 65 between 2016 and 2020. Because the 65 and older cohort is typically not a
target market for new general‐occupancy market rate rental housing, we limit demand from
household growth to only those households under the age of 65.
We identify the percentage of households that are likely to rent their housing based on
2014 tenure data. The propensity to rent ranges from 9.2% to 27.3% based on the submar‐
ket. After adjusting household growth by renters, growth through 2020 is reduced to 857
new renter households in Washington County.
Secondly, we calculate demand from existing households under the age of 65 in the County
that could be expected to turnover between 2016 and 2020. As of 2016, there are 14,055
renter households under the age of 65 in the County. Based on household turnover data
from the 2011 and 2015 American Community Survey, we estimate that between 42.5%
(Lake Elmo) and 76.7% (Oakdale) of these under‐65 owner households will experience turn‐
over between 2016 and 2020 (turnover rate varies by submarket). This estimate results in
anticipated turnover of 9,592 existing households by 2020.
We then estimate the percent of existing renter households turning over that would prefer
to rent in a new rental development. Considering the age of the County’s housing stock, we
estimate that 5% to 15% of the households turning over in Washington County will desire
new rental housing. This estimate results in demand from existing households for 1,198
new residential rental units between 2016 and 2020.
Combining demand from household growth plus turnover results in total demand in the
County for 2,055 rental units between 2016 and 2020.
Based on a review of renter household incomes and sizes and monthly rents at existing
properties, we estimate that 40% to 75% of the total demand will be for market rate hous‐
ing. To 2020, demand exists for 1,158 market rate rental units. Demand for market rate
rental housing will be concentrated mainly in Woodbury, as an estimated 47% of all market
rate rental demand is located in the Woodbury submarket.
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MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 235
We estimate that 23% of the total demand in Washington County will be for affordable
housing and 21% will be for subsidized housing. The majority of the demand will be in the
Forest Lake, Woodbury and Cottage Grove submarkets.
15130131474751023455011648131012647187557470395253827113600
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Northeast Stillwater Southeast Forest Lake Hugo Mahtomedi Oakdale Lake Elmo Woodbury Cottage
GroveRental UnitsGeneral Occupancy Rental Housing Demand by Submarket
2016‐2020
Market Rate Subsidized Affordable
2613313216103611270689195783314959578179396772314156490141421010
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Northeast Stillwater Southeast Forest Lake Hugo Mahtomedi Oakdale Lake Elmo Woodbury Cottage
GroveRental UnitsGeneral Occupancy Rental Housing Demand by Submarket
2020‐2030
Market Rate Subsidized Affordable
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 236 DEMAND FROM NEW HOUSEHOLD GROWTHHousehold growth under age 65, 2016 to 2020(times) % propensity to rent¹DEMAND FROM EXISTING HOUSEHOLDSEstimated Total renter households under age 65, 2016(times) % of renter turnover 2016‐2020²(times) % desiring new rental housingTOTAL MARKET DEMANDTotal demand from new HH growth and turnoverPercent Market Rate3NumberPercent Affordable3NumberPercent Subsidized3Number¹ Based on percent renter households under age 65 in 2014 (American Community Survey)² Based on household turnover and mobility data (2011 and 2015 American Community Survey, Five Year Estimates)3 Based on the pricing of current rental product and household incomes of area renters (i.e. exludes owner incomes)* Average of all submarkets.Note: Some totals may not add due to rounding.Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC24% 21%4 81 3 101 26 4 71 8 75 57 43115 130 13 147 4765% 46%17% 10%17% 29% 16% 29% 27% 32% 28%18% 25% 16% 28% 26%68% 43% 47%12(Equals) Demand from existing households5.0% 10.0% 5.0% 15.0% 5.0%73.9% 67.4% 61.5% 62.7% 68.1%5.0%52.5%203 4,576 1,91514,0554464 485 126 1,1989%*64.1%41% 69% 75% 50% 56%512 50 739 233 2,0552,10246427% 14% 15% 26% 23%4 70 3 95 25 3 7 113 6032%8234 550 116 1,158282 20 343 98 25540%10223198 2,363 329 1,461 462(Equals) Demand from new household growth 16 123 9 206 837 159 10 137 169.4% 27.3% 9.6% 25.9% 10.4% 10.6%172 449 98 796 794 00 46 254 107 8575723.9%14TABLE DMD‐3DEMAND FOR ADDITONAL RENTAL HOUSINGWASHINGTON COUNTY2016 to 2020Northeast Stillwater Southeast Forest Lake Hugo Mahtomedi Lake ElmoWashingtonCountyWoodburyCottage GroveOakdale242496 1,108 7754,7459.2% 22.9% 13.8%19.1%5.0% 15.0% 10.0%42.5% 70.7% 65.7%76.7%15.0%
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 237 DEMAND FROM NEW HOUSEHOLD GROWTHHousehold growth under age 65, 2020 to 2030(times) % propensity to rent¹DEMAND FROM EXISTING HOUSEHOLDSEstimated Total renter households under age 65, 2020(times) % of renter turnover 2020‐2030²(times) % desiring new rental housingTOTAL MARKET DEMANDTotal demand from new HH growth and turnoverPercent Market Rate3NumberPercent Affordable3NumberPercent Subsidized3Number¹ Based on percent renter households under age 65 in 2014 (2014 American Community Survey)² Based on household turnover and mobility data (2011 and 2015 American Community Survey, Five Year Estimates)3 Based on the pricing of current rental product and household incomes of area renters (i.e. exludes owner incomes)* Average of all submarketsNote: Some totals may not add due to rounding.Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLCOakdale Lake Elmo WoodburyCottage GroveWashingtonCountyTABLE DMD‐4DEMAND FOR ADDITONAL RENTAL HOUSINGWASHINGTON COUNTY2020 to 2030Northeast Stillwater Southeast Forest Lake Hugo Mahtomedi9.4% 27.3% 9.6% 25.9% 10.4%345 409 88 1,315 1,90210.6% 23.9% 9.2% 22.9% 13.8%19.1%100 1,041 1,660 1,9188,805273 24 96 380 265 1,458(Equals) Demand from new household growth 32 112 8 341 19873.9% 67.4% 61.5% 62.7% 68.1%222 2,618 357 1,762 59152.5% 76.7% 42.5% 70.7% 65.7%64.1%2,233 270 5,146 1,93415,5854529%*(Equals) Demand from existing households 8 176 11 1665.0% 10.0% 5.0% 15.0% 5.0% 5.0%1,32820 12 257 6 545 127218 15 281 102 92515.0% 5.0% 15.0% 10.0%7 72 3 141 56 4 90392 2,78665% 46% 68% 43% 47% 41% 40% 69% 75% 50% 56%41 288 19 50670 689 195 1,56318% 25% 16% 28% 26% 27%26 133 13 216 103 6 11214 142 101 63032% 14% 15% 26% 23%78331495917% 29% 16% 29% 27%5 7817939659028% 17% 10% 24% 21%32%
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 238
Senior Housing Demand Analysis
Tables DMD‐5 through DMD‐9 shows demand calculations for senior housing in Washington
County by submarket in 2016, 2020 and 2030. Demand methodology employed by Maxfield
Research utilizes capture and penetration rates that blend national senior housing trends with
local market characteristics, preferences and patterns. Unlike demand for general occupancy
housing, demand for senior housing is need driven and dependent on the capture rate of the
point‐in‐time population versus population growth. As a result, senior demand is calculated for
2016, 2020, and 2030. Our demand calculations consider the following target market segments
for each product types:
Market Rate Active Adult Rental and Ownership Housing: Target market base includes age
55+ older adult and senior households with incomes of $35,000 or more and senior homeown‐
ers with incomes between $25,000 and $34,999.
Affordable/Subsidized Independent Housing: Target market base includes age 55+ older adult
and senior households with incomes of $50,000 or less. The higher income qualification re‐
flects senior households that can qualify with up to 80% AMI at Washington County CDA
sponsored properties.
Congregate Housing: Target market base includes age 65+ seniors who would be financially
able to pay for housing and service costs associated with congregate housing. Income‐ranges
considered capable of paying for congregate housing are the same as for active adult housing.
Assisted Living Housing: Target market base includes older seniors (age 75+) who would be
financially able to pay for private pay assisted living housing (incomes of $40,000 or more and
some homeowners with incomes below $40,000). Additional demand for subsidized assisted
living is not included in this demand but would result in greater demand for assisted living
housing if considered.
Memory Care Housing: Target market base includes age 65+ seniors who would be financially
able to pay for housing and service costs associated with memory care housing. Income ranges
considered capable of paying for memory care housing ($60,000 or more) are higher than other
service levels due to the increased cost of care.
Existing senior housing units are subtracted from overall demand for each product type.
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 239 821174355982011,17328185815276112481,4293301331396678284051,7495670
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Subsidized
Rental
Affordable
Rental
MR Owner MR Rental Congregate Assisted
Living
Memory
Care
Total Senior Housing Demand Snapshot
Washington County
2016
2020
2030
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 240 Households age 55‐64(times) % income qualified¹(times) HO factor $25k‐$35k(plus) Homeowners w/incomes $25k‐35k2(times) potential capture rate(equals) demand potentialHouseholds age 65‐74(times) % income qualified¹(times) HO factor $25k‐$35k(plus) Homeowners w/incomes $25k‐35k2(times) potential capture rate(equals) demand potentialHouseholds age 75+(times) % income qualified¹(times) HO factor $25k‐$35k(plus) Homeowners w/incomes $25k‐35k2(times) potential capture rate(equals) demand potentialPercent Owner‐OccupiedNumber(minus) Existing and Pending Units3(equals) Total Owner‐Occupied DemandPercent Renter‐OccupiedNumber(minus) Existing and Pending Units3(equals) Total Renter‐Occupied Demand7624.0%888.5%86449111.5%874840CONTINUED0669500426512385855% 60% 60%0 100 0 043 142 43 63 47 8165%90 3119 95 28 52 16 4370% 60% 60% 55% 75%000206 1,4170520720040% 38%40%74 210124129 82 55920160.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%(Equals) Demand potential1,550 616 860 52282.6% 71.7% 83.8% 86.3%5.5% 5.5% 5.5%59.6%0.5% 0.5%30% 40% 40% 45% 25% 35% 45% 40%62 237 71 115 62 124 164 5286.7% 72.9% 83.5% 77.0% 81.9%4702,921 19,05091.1% 82.3% 91.0% 85.3% 91.2% 90.6% 83.8% 89.4% 91.6% 87.3% 88.1%875 2,582 1,252 1,470 931 1,438 2,202 725 4,654TABLE DMD‐5DEMAND FOR MARKET RATE ACTIVE ADULT RENTAL HOUSINGWASHINGTON COUNTY2016 to 2030Northeast Stillwater Southeast Forest Lake Hugo Mahtomedi Oakdale Lake Elmo WoodburyCottage GroveWashingtonCounty76.8% 79.4%1,244 416 2,109 1,591 10,161783247 1,606 279 598 2545.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5%664 1,069 207 1,565 1,108 7,5975.5% 5.5%5.5%16.5% 16.5% 16.5% 16.5% 16.5%70.0% 47.7% 62.4% 57.6% 65.1%16.5% 16.5% 16.5% 16.5% 16.5% 16.5%44.9% 67.7% 62.6% 52.9% 55.5%43543 42 43 63 47 15 0 31 194 12059819 95 28 52 16 43 22 21 5760% 62%1944.0%354.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%10350593758882918611773 44 67 106 35 179 1358.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5%11.5%28 185 32 69 29 76 123 24 180 12711.5% 11.5% 11.5% 11.5% 11.5% 11.5% 11.5% 11.5% 11.5%1325 69 31 40 26 39 55 21 110 754116747103228.5%40 132 521183315734683278992719182324
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 241 Households age 55‐64(times) % income qualified¹(times) HO factor $25k‐$35k(plus) Homeowners w/incomes $25k‐35k2(times) potential capture rate(equals) demand potentialHouseholds age 65‐74(times) % income qualified¹(times) HO factor $25k‐$35k(plus) Homeowners w/incomes $25k‐35k2(times) potential capture rate(equals) demand potentialHouseholds age 75+(times) % income qualified¹(times) HO factor $25k‐$35k(plus) Homeowners w/incomes $25k‐35k2(times) potential capture rate(equals) demand potentialPercent Owner‐OccupiedNumber(minus) Existing and Pending Units3(equals) Total Owner‐Occupied DemandPercent Renter‐OccupiedNumber(minus) Existing and Pending Units3(equals) Total Renter‐Occupied Demand4.0%8.5%11.5%1,05784699295360197WashingtonCountyCONTINUEDStillwater Southeast Forest Lake Hugo Mahtomedi Oakdale Lake Elmo WoodburyCottage Grove0 157 0 014470% 60% 60% 55%52 164 49 95600 1,907 746 1,386 71999955% 60% 60% 60% 62%06687 100 42 20595 0 0 6538375% 65%6112402210933782047822800000052 72038%91.1% 82.3% 91.0% 85.3%137 96 65130% 40% 40% 45% 25% 35% 45% 40% 40%2020TABLE DMD‐5 CONT.DEMAND FOR MARKET RATE ACTIVE ADULT RENTAL HOUSINGWASHINGTON COUNTY2016 to 2030Northeast88.1%2,346 922 4,654 3,259 21,1411,49591.2%996 2,851 1,359 2,121 1,13890.6% 83.8% 89.4%0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%917 1,478 593 2,109 1,984 12,4390.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%0.5%5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5%86.7% 72.9% 83.5% 77.0% 81.9%5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5%71.7% 83.8% 86.3% 76.8% 79.4%82.6%70.0% 47.7% 62.4% 57.6% 65.1%284 1,793 306 860 31859.6% 44.9% 67.7% 62.6% 52.9% 55.5%1,137 268 1,716 1,249 8,62369216.5%(Equals) Demand potential 74 273 82 17316.5% 16.5% 16.5% 16.5% 16.5% 16.5%1,65081 134 181 69 342 24138 175 37 9816.5% 16.5% 16.5% 16.5%40%9640 81 106 35 210 13352752 7 49 95 61 21 0 42 205 7961122 109 33 78 20 47 29 28 654.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%91.6% 87.3%401145485466094371861305126957104221565 36 468.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5%51 162 63 118 61 78 126 50 179 16931 85 38 65 30 110 9311.5% 11.5% 11.5% 11.5% 11.5% 11.5% 11.5% 11.5% 11.5% 11.5%33 206 35 99 37 80 131 31 197 144
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 242 Households age 55‐64(times) % income qualified¹(times) HO factor $25k‐$35k(plus) Homeowners w/incomes $25k‐35k2(times) potential capture rate(equals) demand potentialHouseholds age 65‐74(times) % income qualified¹(times) HO factor $25k‐$35k(plus) Homeowners w/incomes $25k‐35k2(times) potential capture rate(equals) demand potentialHouseholds age 75+(times) % income qualified¹(times) HO factor $25k‐$35k(plus) Homeowners w/incomes $25k‐35k2(times) potential capture rate(equals) demand potentialPercent Owner‐OccupiedNumber(minus) Existing and Pending Units3(equals) Total Owner‐Occupied DemandPercent Renter‐OccupiedNumber(minus) Existing and Pending Units3(equals) Total Renter‐Occupied Demand¹ Based on households earning $35,000+ in 20162 Estimated homeowners with incomes between $25,000 and $34,000 in 20163 Existing and pending units are deducted at market equilibrium (95% occupancy)Source: Maxfield Research & Consuilting, LLC4.0%8.5%11.5%9311,3581,1801077741,139TABLE DMD‐5 CONT.DEMAND FOR MARKET RATE ACTIVE ADULT RENTAL HOUSINGWASHINGTON COUNTY2016 to 2030Northeast Stillwater Southeast Forest Lake Hugo Mahtomedi Oakdale Lake Elmo WoodburyCottage GroveWashingtonCounty20301,564 1,543 2,392 1,230 5,19386.7% 72.9% 83.5% 77.0% 81.9% 82.6% 71.7%3,914 23,27491.1% 82.3% 91.0% 85.3% 91.2% 90.6% 83.8% 89.4% 91.6% 87.3% 88.1%1,106 2,876 1,440 2,0160.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%649 2,186 931 1,512 1,030 1,0860.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%83.8% 86.3% 76.8% 79.4%1,744 954 3,304 2,576 15,972349 2,200 351 875 5985.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5%728 1,271 366 2,064 1,458 10,2605.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5%5.5%16.5% 16.5% 16.5% 16.5% 16.5%70.0% 47.7% 62.4% 57.6% 65.1%11.5% 11.5%40 253 40 101 6916.5% 16.5% 16.5% 16.5% 16.5% 16.5%44.9% 67.7% 62.6% 52.9% 55.5%59.6%11.5% 11.5% 11.5% 11.5% 11.5%84 146 42 237 168147 206 102 449 294 2,020(Equals) Demand potential 86 325 97 180 13426 130 39 81 3430% 40% 40% 45% 25%51 93 41 180 117 79145% 40% 40% 40% 38%35%70% 60% 60% 55% 75%0000026 130 39 81 3465% 55% 60% 60% 60% 62%52 0 72 0 124051 40 41 108 1176670 157 0 0 060 195 58 99 10166 95 0 0 65383113 61 270 1761,2299611182860 38 58 99 101 30 0 61 2704.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%441155881636296492081578.5%55 186 79 129 88 92 148 81 281 2198.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5%34 98 47 71 51 54 77 48 172 1215127977116251847 215 43 100 76 85 118 48 252 15511.5% 11.5% 11.5%
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 243 Households age 55‐64(times) % income qualified¹(times) potential capture rateHouseholds age 65‐74(times) % income qualified¹(times) potential capture rateHouseholds age 75+(times) % income qualified¹(times) potential capture ratePercent SubsidizedNumber(minus) Existing and Pending Units2(equals) Total Subsidized DemandPercent AffordableNumber(minus) Existing and Pending Units2(equals) Total Affordable Demand11710 0 18 002916070 76930 109 0 8300011332827 14659 66 0 04057%217 0 879 0 0 11 34157 015 138 16 40 2076 544102 11 120 98 60064% 49% 78%08234% 40%10 96 18 35 9 3059% 59% 47% 53% 69%51%66% 60%58 11 34 51 35201860154 149 95120162.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%41% 41% 53% 47% 31% 43% 36% 22%(Equals) Demand potential2523533752970160222,921 19,0848.9% 17.7% 9.0% 14.7% 8.8% 9.4% 16.2% 10.6% 8.4% 12.7% 10.0%909 2,582 1,252 1,470 931 1,438 2,202 725 4,654TABLE DMD‐6DEMAND FOR SUBSIDIZED/AFFORDABLE SENIOR HOUSINGWASHINGTON COUNTY2016 to 2030Northeast Stillwater Southeast Forest Lake Hugo Mahtomedi Oakdale Lake Elmo WoodburyCottage GroveWashingtonCounty13.3% 37.1% 16.5% 23.0% 18.1%564 1,550 616 860 52217.4% 28.3% 16.2% 13.7% 23.2% 20.7%1,244 416 2,109 1,591 10,255783271 1,606 279 598 25410.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%664 1,069 207 1,565 1,108 7,62110.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%10.0%20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0%30.0% 52.3% 37.6% 42.4% 34.9%20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0%55.1% 32.3% 37.4% 47.1% 41.0%40.4%CONTINUED
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 244 Households age 55‐64(times) % income qualified¹(times) potential capture rateHouseholds age 65‐74(times) % income qualified¹(times) potential capture rateHouseholds age 75+(times) % income qualified¹(times) potential capture ratePercent Subsidized²Number(minus) Existing and Pending Units2(equals) Total Subsidized DemandPercent Affordable²Number(minus) Existing and Pending Units2(equals) Total Affordable Demand008114 0 20 0 0 0 0 15 36 0 858.9% 17.7% 9.0% 14.7% 8.8%996 2,851 1,359 2,121 1,1389.4% 16.2%30 109 0 8304918059% 59% 47% 53%20 158 18113 69164% 49% 78% 66% 60%27 14643 112 14 129217 0 297 249 1,15869% 57%36 58 4120 186 0 157 0 59 66 0 76 544014110205212326315202041% 41% 53% 47% 31% 43% 36% 51% 22% 34% 40%10.6% 8.4% 12.7% 10.0%2,346 922 4,654 3,259 21,1411,495738 1,907 746 1,386 7192.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%9172.0%1,478 593 2,109 1,984 12,5772.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%13.3% 37.1% 16.5% 23.0% 18.1%10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%28.3% 16.2% 13.7% 23.2% 20.7%17.4%30.0% 52.3% 37.6% 42.4% 34.9%358 1,793 306 860 31840.4% 55.1% 32.3% 37.4% 47.1% 41.0%1,137 268 1,716 1,249 8,69769220.0% 20.0%(Equals) Demand potential33 268 38 11120.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0%1,10337 75 175 29 165 17259 2600014CONTINUEDTABLE DMD‐6 CONT.DEMAND FOR SUBSIDIZED/AFFORDABLE SENIOR HOUSINGWASHINGTON COUNTY2016 to 2030Northeast Stillwater Southeast Forest Lake Hugo Mahtomedi Oakdale Lake Elmo WoodburyCottage GroveWashingtonCounty20.0% 20.0% 20.0%
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 245 Households age 55‐64(times) % income qualified¹(times) potential capture rateHouseholds age 65‐74(times) % income qualified¹(times) potential capture rateHouseholds age 75+(times) % income qualified¹(times) potential capture ratePercent Subsidized²Number(minus) Existing and Pending Units2(equals) Total Subsidized DemandPercent Affordable²Number(minus) Existing and Pending Units2(equals) Total Affordable Demand¹ Based on households earning $35,000 and under in 20162 Existing and pending units are deducted at market equilibrium (97% occupancy)Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC0138081210170 020017 0 24 0 20 0 5 21 46 0 1321,106 2,876 1,440 2,016 1,564 1,54313.3% 37.1% 16.5% 23.0%203018.1% 17.4% 28.3%2.0%16.2%TABLE DMD‐6 CONT.DEMAND FOR SUBSIDIZED/AFFORDABLE SENIOR HOUSINGWASHINGTON COUNTY2016 to 2030Northeast Stillwater Southeast Forest Lake Hugo Mahtomedi Oakdale Lake Elmo23,2748.9% 17.7% 9.0% 14.7% 8.8% 9.4% 16.2% 10.6% 8.4% 12.7% 10.0%2,392 1,230 5,193 3,9142.0% 2.0% 2.0%862 2,186 931 1,512 1,030 1,0862.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%13.7% 23.2% 20.7%1,744 954 3,304 2,576 16,185458 2,200 351 875 59810.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%728 1,271 366 2,064 1,458 10,36910.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%10.0%20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0%30.0% 52.3% 37.6% 42.4% 34.9%20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0%55.1% 32.3% 37.4% 47.1% 41.0%40.4%81 197 42 208 207 1,320(Equals) Demand potential41 321 44 115 6317 132 24 54 2041% 41% 53% 47% 31%35 71 21 46 70 48936% 51% 22% 34% 40%43%59% 59% 47% 53% 69%01860157057% 64% 49% 78% 66% 60%66 0 0 76 5445930 109 0 83 2724 190 21 61 44146 217 0 297 249 1,158126 20 163 137 83146WoodburyCottage GroveWashingtonCounty
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 246 Households age 65‐74(times) % income qualified¹(times) HO factor $25k‐$35k(plus) Homeowners w/incomes $25k‐35k2(times) potential capture rate(equals) demand potentialHouseholds age 75+(times) % income qualified¹(times) HO factor $25k‐$35k(plus) Homeowners w/incomes $25k‐35k2(times) potential capture rate(equals) demand potential(minus) Existing and Pending Units3(Equals) Total Congregate Demand82 915CONTINUED36 49 5 0 14 28 0 35 20113.5% 13.5% 13.5% 13.5% 13.5% 11.0%44.9% 67.7% 62.6% 52.9% 59.1%59.6%12711.5% 11.5% 11.5% 11.5%13.5% 13.5% 13.5% 13.5% 13.5%70.0% 47.7% 62.4% 57.6% 65.1%11.5% 11.5%83.8% 86.3% 76.8% 80.3%1,244 416 2,109 1,591 11,31777.0% 81.9%470 1,550 616 2,016 52282.6% 71.7%783TABLE DMD‐7DEMAND FOR CONGREGATE RENTAL HOUSINGWASHINGTON COUNTY2016 to 2030Northeast Stillwater Southeast Forest Lake Hugo Mahtomedi Oakdale Lake Elmo WoodburyCottage GroveWashingtonCounty187 11720161.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%86.7% 72.9% 83.5%33 28 111 82 0 197279 598 2541.5%664 1,069 207 1,565 1,1081.5%247 1,606(Equals) Demand potential 3414736823374962834 027171 44157 9624 180207199267111563011.5% 11.5% 11.5% 11.5%1282856266481220382028185326929761238.5%8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5%67 106 35 179 13540 132 528.5%96211.5%1498746867,5971.5%834
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 247 Households age 65‐74(times) % income qualified¹(times) HO factor $25k‐$35k(plus) Homeowners w/incomes $25k‐35k2(times) potential capture rate(equals) demand potentialHouseholds age 75+(times) % income qualified¹(times) HO factor $25k‐$35k(plus) Homeowners w/incomes $25k‐35k2(times) potential capture rate(equals) demand potential(minus) Existing and Pending Units3(Equals) Total Congregate Demand8,62311.0%13.5% 13.5%94443 79 104 37 202 13413.5% 13.5% 13.5%9798252 24759.1%11.5% 11.5% 11.5%11.5%67.7% 62.6% 52.9%(Equals) Demand potential 40 167 41 9813.5% 13.5% 13.5% 13.5%11.5% 11.5% 11.5% 11.5%11.5%70.0% 47.7% 62.4%WoodburyCottage GroveWashingtonCounty1,9849171.5%1,478 593 2,1098.5%86.3% 76.8% 80.3%82.6%12,4391.5%50 179 169TABLE DMD‐7 CONT.DEMAND FOR CONGREGATE RENTAL HOUSINGWASHINGTON COUNTY2016 to 2030Northeast Stillwater Southeast Forest Lake Hugo Mahtomedi Oakdale Lake Elmo202057.6% 65.1%80 33 66 8759.6% 44.9%10 13 18181,24911.5%1.5%1.5%1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%86.7% 72.9% 83.5% 77.0% 81.9%63 118 61 782925311.5% 1.5%692284 1,793 306 860 318 1,137 2681269231071.7% 83.8%8513.5%197197144172 109600 1,907 746 1,386 7191,7160 382 0 33 28 146 82143 31206359937801313141 65 15 0 22 82940 0CONTINUED8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5%333051 1628.5% 8.5% 8.5%1,0578.5%11.5%1.5%992780164
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 248 Households age 65‐74(times) % income qualified¹(times) HO factor $25k‐$35k(plus) Homeowners w/incomes $25k‐35k2(times) potential capture rate(equals) demand potentialHouseholds age 75+(times) % income qualified¹(times) HO factor $25k‐$35k(plus) Homeowners w/incomes $25k‐35k2(times) potential capture rate(equals) demand potential(minus) Existing and Pending Units3(Equals) Total Congregate Demand¹ Based on households earning $35,000+ in 20162 Estimated homeowners with incomes between $25,000 and $34,999 in 20163 Existing and pending units are deducted at market equilibrium (95% occupancy)Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC13.5% 11.0%44.9% 67.7% 62.6% 52.9% 59.1%59.6%85 118 52 253 160 1,14313.5% 13.5% 13.5% 13.5%168146 42 23712770(Equals) Demand potential 48 203 48 101 7672.9% 83.5%13.5% 13.5% 13.5% 13.5% 13.5%70.0% 47.7% 62.4% 57.6% 65.1%38 176 35 82 6211.5%1.5%927728 1,271 366 2,064 1,458349 2,200 351 875 5981.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%76.8% 80.3%83.8% 86.3%81.9%203028 146 29 19777.0%78 40548 0 48 68 48 0 36 23 5682 97915,97286.7%03820 33 822016 to 2030219Cottage Grove2,5768.5%40 253 40 101 69 8413 19 14 1582.6%TABLE DMD‐7 CONT.DEMAND FOR CONGREGATE RENTAL HOUSINGWASHINGTON COUNTY47 3355 186 79 129 8897 39 20621 1371.7%92 148 81 281954 3,304649 2,186 931 1,512 1,030 1,086Northeast Stillwater Southeast Forest Lake Hugo Mahtomedi Oakdale Lake Elmo Woodbury11.5% 11.5% 11.5% 11.5% 11.5% 11.5% 11.5%11.5% 11.5%8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5%1,7448.5%11.5%1,3581,180211932WashingtonCounty10,2601.5%
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 249 People age 75‐79(times) % needing assistance¹People age 80‐84(times) % needing assistance¹People age 85+(times) % needing assistance¹(times) Percent Income‐Qualified²(times) Percent Living Alone(plus) Proportion of demand from couples (12%)3(times) Potential penetration rate4(Equals) Demand Potential(minus) Existing and Pending Units5(Equals) Total Assisted Living DemandCONTINUED145 205 1,13359 197 78 83 12 129 169 57255 1,80740.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0%59 380 78 148 61 175 238 57 3574951.6%860 61719551.6% 51.6%018304,3612016(Equals) Number needing assistance 142 918 188 356 147 421 574 13725.5% 25.5% 25.5%65TABLE DMD‐8DEMAND FOR ASSISTED LIVING RENTAL HOUSINGWASHINGTON COUNTY2016 to 2030Northeast Stillwater Southeast Forest Lake Hugo Mahtomedi Oakdale Lake Elmo WoodburyCottage GroveWashingtonCounty839 295 452 24225.5% 25.5%41225.5% 25.5%25.5% 25.5% 25.5% 25.5%628 214 1,093 837 5,207707 543 3,443119 635 149 263 111 312 487 11733.6%33.6%33.6% 33.6% 33.6% 33.6% 33.6% 33.6% 33.6% 33.6% 33.6%102 951 122 296 93 410 485 84 666 428 3,63757.8%61.8%41.1% 42.6%20 156212 50 67446 69 051.6% 51.6% 51.6% 51.6% 51.6% 51.6% 51.6% 51.6%31.8% 56.8% 31.5% 49.5% 36.9% 52.3% 53.3% 29.0% 44.2%73.1% 45.7% 71.8% 57.7% 66.3% 57.0% 47.9% 77.2% 63.3%40.0%40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0%53261451720433
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 250 People age 75‐79(times) % needing assistance¹People age 80‐84(times) % needing assistance¹People age 85+(times) % needing assistance¹(times) Percent Income‐Qualified²(times) Percent Living Alone(plus) Proportion of demand from couples (12%)3(times) Potential penetration rate4(Equals) Demand Potential(minus) Existing and Pending Units5(Equals) Total Assisted Living DemandCONTINUEDTABLE DMD‐8 CONT.DEMAND FOR ASSISTED LIVING RENTAL HOUSINGWASHINGTON COUNTY2016 to 2030Northeast Stillwater Southeast Forest Lake Hugo Mahtomedi Oakdale Lake Elmo WoodburyCottage GroveWashingtonCounty78 245 104 111 34 124 174 64 263 254 1,4516902,1400 183 0 66497889231534830378 428 104 177 83 202 262 87 41640.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0%1,00329.0% 44.2% 41.1%73333.6%129 971 147 318 109 437 531 126 768 508 4,0441,025 6,66925.5% 25.5% 25.5% 25.5% 25.5% 25.5% 25.5% 25.5% 25.5% 25.5% 25.5%274 1,101 410 583 338 542 745 331 1,32042.6%6 37 8 17 7 20 22 6 38 241845,16773.1% 45.7% 71.8% 57.7% 66.3% 57.0% 47.9% 77.2% 63.3% 57.8%61.8%(Equals) Number needing assistance 190 1,033 251 426 201 486 634 210803 624 4,10751.6% 51.6% 51.6% 51.6% 51.6% 51.6% 51.6% 51.6% 51.6% 51.6% 51.6%33.6% 33.6% 33.6% 33.6% 33.6% 33.6% 33.6% 33.6% 33.6% 33.6%160 747 211 337 174 364 506 18131.8% 56.8% 31.5% 49.5% 36.9% 52.3% 53.3%2020
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 251 People age 75‐79(times) % needing assistance¹People age 80‐84(times) % needing assistance¹People age 85+(times) % needing assistance¹(times) Percent Income‐Qualified²(times) Percent Living Alone(plus) Proportion of demand from couples (12%)3(times) Potential penetration rate4(Equals) Demand Potential(minus) Existing and Pending Units5(Equals) Total Assisted Living Demand³ The 2009 Overview of Assisted Living (a collaborative project of AAHSA, ASHA, ALFA, NCAL & NIC) found that 12% of assisted living residents are couples.5 Existing and pending units at 95% occupancy. We exclude 15% of units to be Elderly Waiver.Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC4 We estimate that 60% of the qualified market needing assistance with ADLs could either remain in their homes or reside at less advanced senior housing with the assistance of a family member or home health care, or would need greater care provided in a skilled care facility.TABLE DMD‐8 CONT.DEMAND FOR ASSISTED LIVING RENTAL HOUSINGWASHINGTON COUNTY2016 to 2030Northeast Stillwater Southeast Forest Lake Hugo Mahtomedi Oakdale Lake Elmo WoodburyCottage GroveWashingtonCounty32848 650¹ The percentage of seniors unable to perform or having difficulting with ADLs, based on the publication Health, United States, 1999 Health and Aging Chartbook, conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the National Center for Health Statistics.² Includes households with incomes of $40,000 or more (who could afford monthly rents of $3,000+ per month) plus 40% of the estimated owner households with incomes below $40,000 (who will spend down assets, including home‐equity, in order to live in assisted living housing).0 143 0 6649788923153296 1,84597 324 118 153 77 130 223 9940.0% 40.0%97 467 118 220 126 208 311 122 481 344 2,49440.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0%272147 40 9 21 10 20 26 9 4457.8%61.8%31.8% 56.8% 31.5% 49.5% 36.9% 52.3% 53.3% 29.0% 44.2% 41.1% 42.6%73.1% 45.7% 71.8% 57.7% 66.3% 57.0% 47.9% 77.2% 63.3%51.6% 51.6%33.6% 33.6% 33.6% 33.6% 33.6%(Equals) Number needing assistance51.6% 51.6% 51.6% 51.6% 51.6% 51.6% 51.6% 51.6% 51.6%33.6% 33.6% 33.6% 33.6% 33.6%197 895 245 438 22833.6%340 1,288 463 731 52425.5% 25.5% 25.5% 25.5% 25.5%5123666,02225.5%236 1,128 287 529 304 499 752 296 1,159 83325.5% 25.5% 25.5% 25.5%226 805 642203025.5%874 494 1,691 1,338 8,3536104,554161 966 167 378 182 427 693 183 886 535 4,578
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 252 People age 65‐74(times) Dementia incident rate¹People age 75‐84(times) Dementia incident rate¹People age 85+(times) Dementia incident rate¹(times) Percent Income‐Qualified²(times) Potential penetration rate(Equals) Demand Potential(minus) Existing and Pending Units3(Equals) Total Memory Care Demand028014 88 39 0 0 0 54 29 5725.0% 25.0% 25.0%141503962268382291699975225.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0%42.0%1,092 75542.0% 42.0%0620102 951 122 296 93 410 485 84 666 428917 3,02152.3%25.0%1125,6302016(Equals) Total senior population with dementia 121 1,292 234 468 180578 745 1642.0% 2.0% 2.0%41TABLE DMD‐9DEMAND FOR MEMORY CARE RENTAL HOUSINGWASHINGTON COUNTY2016 to 2030Northeast Stillwater Southeast Forest Lake Hugo Mahtomedi Oakdale Lake Elmo WoodburyCottage GroveWashingtonCounty1,363 1,801 9982.0% 2.0%1,5232.0% 2.0% 2.0%2.0% 2.0%2.0%2,369 858 4,193 3,215 20,2581,800 1,380 8,649314 1,474 444 715 353 724 1,115 33019.0%19.0%19.0% 19.0% 19.0% 19.0% 19.0% 19.0% 19.0% 19.0% 19.0%3,63742.0% 42.0% 42.0% 42.0% 42.0% 42.0% 42.0% 42.0%55.5%45.0% 46.5% 66.4% 53.2% 58.6% 57.1% 43.8% 70.5% 61.8%38971 28 0264925.0% 25.0%CONTINUED
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 253 People age 65‐74(times) Dementia incident rate¹People age 75‐84(times) Dementia incident rate¹People age 85+(times) Dementia incident rate¹(times) Percent Income‐Qualified²(times) Potential penetration rate(Equals) Demand Potential(minus) Existing and Pending Units3(Equals) Total Memory Care Demand32918 50 0 8 0 0 24 85 6976CONTINUED8860 86 0 41 26 100 28 20 112 49 46218 162 50 71 34 102 90 44 197 11852.3%55.5%25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0%45.0% 46.5% 66.4% 53.2% 58.6% 57.1% 43.8% 70.5% 61.8%42.0% 42.0%(Equals) Total senior population with dementia 161 1,396 299 535 230712 825 248 1,276 900 6,58342.0% 42.0% 42.0% 42.0% 42.0% 42.0% 42.0% 42.0% 42.0%19.0% 19.0%129 971 147 318 109 437 531 126 768 508 4,04419.0% 19.0% 19.0% 19.0% 19.0% 19.0% 19.0% 19.0% 19.0%2.0%434 1,847 621 920 512 1,251 1,251 512 2,123 1,649 11,1201,224 3,696 1,687 2,069 1,188 1,860 2,790 1,198 5,233 3,909 24,8542.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%2020TABLE DMD‐9 CONT.DEMAND FOR MEMORY CARE RENTAL HOUSINGWASHINGTON COUNTY2016 to 2030Northeast Stillwater Southeast Forest Lake Hugo Mahtomedi Oakdale Lake Elmo WoodburyCottage GroveWashingtonCounty
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 254 People age 65‐74(times) Dementia incident rate¹People age 75‐84(times) Dementia incident rate¹People age 85+(times) Dementia incident rate¹(times) Percent Income‐Qualified²(times) Potential penetration rate(Equals) Demand Potential(minus) Existing and Pending Units3(Equals) Total Memory Care Demand3 Existing and pending units at 93% occupancy. We exclude 15% of the units to be Elderly Waiver.Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC22 84 56 46 27 0 86 43 120 83462(Equals) Total senior population with dementia 199 1,466 339 653 361655 1,038 3542.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%TABLE DMD‐9 CONT.DEMAND FOR MEMORY CARE RENTAL HOUSINGWASHINGTON COUNTY¹ Alzheimer's Association: Alzheimer's Disease Facts & Figures (2007)² Includes seniors with income at $60,000 or above plus 25% of homeowners with incomes below this threshold (who will spend dow assets, including home‐equity, in order to live in memory care housing.5671,0222.0%19.0%0 86 0 41 26 100 28 20 11231,76270.5% 61.8% 52.3%55.5%25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0%42.0%42.0% 42.0% 42.0% 42.0% 42.0% 42.0% 42.0% 42.0% 42.0%25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0%1,478 4,223 1,866 2,722 1,778 2,088 4,039 1,720 6,923 4,92513225.0%22 170 56 87 53 93 114 63 2324945.0% 46.5% 66.4% 53.2% 58.6% 57.1% 43.8%12,89819.0%19.0% 19.0% 19.0% 19.0% 19.0% 19.0% 19.0% 19.0% 19.0%42.0%1,499 1,010 7,664161 966 167 378 182 427 693 183 8862,183 708 1,159 752 976 1,386 719 2,49625.0%535 4,5781,98153820302016 to 2030Northeast Stillwater Southeast Forest Lake Hugo Mahtomedi Oakdale Lake Elmo WoodburyCottage GroveWashingtonCounty
DEMAND SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 255
Washington County Demand Summary
The housing demand calculations in Tables DMD‐1 through DMD‐9 indicate that between 2016
and 2020, 4,807 for‐sale housing units, 2,055 rental units and 3,332 senior units will be needed
in Washington County to satisfy the housing demand for current and future residents.
Summary demand tables for general occupancy and senior housing are broken down by
submarket in Tables DMD‐10 and DMD‐11. Tables DMD‐12 and DMD‐13 allocate the aggregate
demand by individual community by housing product type for the periods 2016 to 2020 and
from 2020 to 2030. We note that senior demand shown on Table DMD‐12 is for 2020 and Table
DMD‐13 shows senior demand as of 2030.
We recommend maintaining a single‐family lot supply of at least three years to provide
adequate consumer choice but do not prolong developer carrying costs. With an average of
about 629 new single‐family homes built annually between 2011 and 2016, this equates to a lot
supply of nearly 1,887 lots (three‐year supply) and 3,145 lots (five‐year supply). Currently,
Washington County has 1,294 vacant developed lots, which would equate to about a two‐year
lot supply at the historic construction rate. Another 1,617 lots were identified in existing
subdivisions and 1,359 lots in planned future subdivisions, increasing the lot supply available if
these lots were to be converted to developed lots. Converting all planned future lots would
result in an additional supply of 2,976 lots, which would equate to about a seven‐year supply. If
the absorption pace increases, then these additional lots may be needed to support higher
demand levels.
Washington County has a supply of 296 vacant developed and 216 future lots for multifamily
owned housing. With an average annual demand for 178 for‐sale multifamily units, the current
available units would accommodate demand for just under three years. However, the supply of
these lots is not distributed evenly across the County. Demand for owned multifamily housing
is anticipated to increase as prices for single‐family homes rise and as more empty‐nesters and
seniors consider downsizing or “right‐sizing” their residences.
Overall, the rental market has been tight in Washington County within the past two years with
vacancies below the stabilized rate of 5%. The entire Metro Area has a low vacancy rate of
2.7% as of 4th Quarter 2016. With a strong rental market, we find that new units will need to be
added in the short‐term to satisfy potential household growth. While most of the smaller
communities can support some rental units, the majority of the demand will be in Woodbury,
Oakdale, Forest Lake, and Cottage Grove, or where the majority of jobs, as well as shopping and
services, are located. We note that Stillwater also needs new market rate rental units.
Existing senior projects built in the past couple of years in Washington County are performing
well and additional senior developments will be needed to meet the demand from the growing
senior population. There are four senior projects expected to move forward that will meet a
portion of this demand in the short‐term (see Table P‐1).
DEMAND SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 256
Washington County Projected General Occupancy Demand, 2016 – 2020
General
Occupancy
6,862
For‐Sale
4,807
SF
3,359
Modest
363
Move‐Up
1,717
Executive
1,279
Multifamily
1,448
Modest
523
Move‐Up
925
Rental
2,055
MR
1,159
Affordable
465
Subsidized
431
Washington County Projected Senior Demand, 2020
Senior
Housing
3,331
Active
Adult
1,304
Subsidized
85
Affordable
81
Owner
527
Rental
611
Service‐
Enhanced
2,027
Cong
247
AL
1,451
MC
329
DEMAND SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 257
Submarket Modest Move‐up Executive Total Modest Move‐up Total Market Affordable Subsidized Total
Northeast 0 40 119 159 0 8 8 15 4 4 23
Stillwater 13 153 89 255 41 96 137 130 70 81 281
Southeast 0 24 71 95 0 11 11 13 3 3 19
Forest Lake 132 199 110 441 76 113 189 147 95 101 343
Hugo 145 290 145 580 68 126 194 47 25 26 98
Mahtomedi 0 3 14 17 1 6 7 5 3 4 12
Oakdale 3 13 4 20 40 40 80 102 82 71 255
Lake Elmo 0 139 258 397 17 52 69 34 7 8 49
Woodbury 40 438 319 797 150 279 429 550 113 75 738
Cottage Grove 30 419 150 599 129 193 322 116 60 57 233
WASHINGTON COUNTY 363 1,717 1,279 3,359 522 924 1,446 1,159 465 431 2,055
East Total 13 217 279 509 41 115 156 158 77 88 323
West Total 350 1,500 1,000 2,850 481 809 1,290 1,001 387 344 1,732
Submarket Modest Move‐up Executive Total Modest Move‐up Total Market Affordable Subsidized Total
Northeast 0 73 220 293 0 33 33 26 7 7 40
Stillwater 11 133 77 221 44 103 147 133 72 83 288
Southeast 0 21 62 83 0 15 15 13 3 3 19
Forest Lake 199 299 166 664 143 215 358 216 141 149 506
Hugo 335 669 335 1,339 156 290 446 103 56 59 218
Mahtomedi 0 6 23 29 4 16 20 6 4 5 15
Oakdale 3 13 4 20 58 58 116 112 90 78 280
Lake Elmo 0 271 503 774 48 145 193 70 14 17 101
Woodbury 47 514 374 935 268 497 765 689 142 93 924
Cottage Grove 57 801 286 1,144 305 458 763 195 101 96 392
WASHINGTON COUNTY 652 2,800 2,051 5,503 1,026 1,830 2,856 1,564 631 591 2,786
East Total 11 227 359 597 44 151 195 172 82 93 347
West Total 641 2,574 1,692 4,906 982 1,679 2,661 1,392 549 498 2,439
Submarket Modest Move‐up Executive Total Modest Move‐up Total Market Affordable Subsidized Total
Northeast 0 113 339 452 0 41 41 41 11 11 63
Stillwater 24 286 166 476 85 199 284 263 142 164 569
Southeast 0 45 133 178 0 26 26 26 6 6 38
Forest Lake 331 498 276 1,105 219 328 547 363 236 250 849
Hugo 480 959 480 1,919 224 416 640 150 81 85 316
Mahtomedi 0 9 37 46 5 22 27 11 7 9 27
Oakdale 6 26 8 40 98 98 196 214 172 149 535
Lake Elmo 0 410 761 1,171 65 197 262 104 21 25 150
Woodbury 87 952 693 1,732 418 776 1,194 1,239 255 168 1,662
Cottage Grove 87 1,220 436 1,743 434 651 1,085 311 161 153 625
WASHINGTON COUNTY 1,015 4,517 3,330 8,862 1,548 2,754 4,302 2,722 1,097 1,022 4,841
East Total 24 444 638 1,106 85 266 351 330 159 181 670
West Total 991 4,074 2,691 7,756 1,463 2,488 3,951 2,392 933 839 4,171
Note: Some totals may not add due to rounding.
Sources: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
RentalSingle‐Family For‐Sale Multifamily
Single‐Family For‐Sale Multifamily
Single‐Family For‐Sale Multifamily
TABLE DMD‐10
2016 to 2020
2020 to 2030
2016 to 2030
GENERAL OCCUPANCY EXCESS DEMAND SUMMARY
WASHINGTON COUNTY
2016 to 2030
Rental
Rental
DEMAND SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 258
Northeast 10 0 19 43 72 34 59 14 107
Stillwater 0 29 95 42 166 0 197 88 285
Southeast 18 16 28 43 105 36 78 39 153
Forest Lake 0 0 52 63 115 49 83 0 132
Hugo 9 0 16 47 72 5 12 0 17
Mahtomedi 0 0 43 15 58 0 129 0 129
Oakdale 0 0 22 0 22 14 169 54 237
Lake Elmo 11 11 2131742857 29114
Woodbury 34 33 57 194 318 0 145 57 202
Cottage Grove 0 28 82 120 230 35 205 0 240
WASHINGTON COUNTY 82 117 435 598 1,232 201 1,133 280 1,614
Northeast 14 0 22 52 88 40 78 18 136
Stillwater 0 49 109 7 165 0 245 76 321
Southeast 20 18 33 49 120 41 104 50 195
Forest Lake 0 0 78 95 173 65 111 0 176
Hugo 0 0 20 61 81 15 34 8 57
Mahtomedi 0 0 47 21 68 0 124 0 124
Oakdale 0 0 29 0 29 22 174 0 196
Lake Elmo 15 14 2842998642496
Woodbury 36 0 65 205 306 5 263 85 353
Cottage Grove 0 0 96 79 175 52 254 69 375
WASHINGTON COUNTY 85 81 527 611 1,304 247 1,451 329 2,027
Northeast 17 0 26 60 103 48 97 22 167
Stillwater 0 81 130 38 249 0 324 84 408
Southeast 24 21 39 58 142 48 118 56 222
Forest Lake 0 0 81 99 180 68 153 46 267
Hugo 20 17 34 101 172 48 77 27 152
Mahtomedi 0 0 51 30 81 0 130 0 130
Oakdale 5 0 40 0 45 36 223 86 345
Lake Elmo 21 20 41 61 143 23 99 43 165
Woodbury 46 0 108 270 424 56 328 120 504
Cottage Grove 0 0 117 111 228 78 296 83 457
WASHINGTON COUNTY 133 139 667 828 1,767 405 1,845 567 2,817
Note: Some totals may not add due to rounding.
Sources: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
SERVICE‐ENHANCED**
Total
Total
MR
Rental
Total
2020
Memory
Care
Assisted
Living
Affordable
Rental
SERVICE‐ENHANCED**ACTIVE ADULT
TABLE DMD‐11
SENIOR HOUSING EXCESS DEMAND SUMMARY
WASHINGTON COUNTY
2016 to 2030
MR Owner
MR Owner
MR
Rental
2016
Congregate
Subsidized
Rental
SERVICE‐ENHANCED**
** Service‐enhanced demand is calculated for private pay seniors only; additional demand could be captured if Elderly Waiver and other sources of non‐private
payment sources are permitted.
MR Owner Congregate
Subsidized
Rental
Congregate
Assisted
Living
Assisted
Living
Memory
Care
Total
Affordable
Rental
Affordable
Rental
ACTIVE ADULT
Total
Subsidized
Rental
ACTIVE ADULT
Total
2030
MR
Rental
Memory
Care
DEMAND SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 259 Single‐ Owned Market Active Adlt. Active Adlt. Active Active Assisted Memory2016‐2020 Family Multifamily Rate Affordable Subsidized MR‐Own MR‐Rental Adult‐Aff Adult‐Sub. Congregate Living CareNortheast SubmarketScandia 54 8 10 2 2 14 36 0 7 30 51 10Marine on St. Croix 13 0 5 2 2 8 16 0 7 10 27 8May Twp. 9200000000000159 8 15 4 4 22 52 0 14 40 78 18Stillwater SubmarketStillwater 165 92 64 35 40 54 7 21 0 0 122 38Stillwater Twp. 8 0 0 000000000Oak Park Heights 36 27 33 18 29 36 0 16 0 0 80 28Bayport 31 18 33 17 12 19 0 12 0 0 43 10Baytown Twp. 1400000000000254 137 130 70 81 109 7 49 0 0 245 76Mahtomedi SubmarketMahtomedi 3 7 5 0 4 27 10 0 0 0 62 0Grant 8 0 0 0 0 12 11 0 0 0 40 0Dellwood 1 0 0004000000Birchwood Village 1 0 0 000000000White Bear Lake (pt.)0 0 0000000000Willernie 2 0 0 000000000Pine Springs 200304000022017 7 5 3 4 47 21 0 0 0 124 0Southeast SubmarketLakeland Shores 0 2 0000000000West Lakeland Twp. 22 0 0 0 0 11 14 0 0 0 34 10Lakeland 6 2 4 2 2 11 14 9 10 21 34 20Lake St. Croix Beach0 0 0000000000St. Mary's Point 3 0 0000000000Afton 30 7 9 1 1 1121 9 10203620Denmark Twp. 340000000000095 11 13 3 3 33 49 18 20 41 104 50Cottage Grove SubmarketCottage Grove 455 244 60 30 27 52 39 0 0 26 126 34Newport 48 32 2012122020 0 0 136418St. Paul Park 86 36 2012122020 0 0 136417Grey Cloud Is. Twp.101016664000000599 322 116 60 57 96 79 0 0 52 254 69Total 1,124 475 300 140 149 363 439 34 84 133 807 213* Senior Demand is as of 2020Source: Maxfield Research and Consulting LLCFor‐Sale Rental Senior*TABLE DMD‐12COMMUNITY DEMAND FOR AGGREGATE SUBMARKETS BY PRODUCT TYPE2016‐2020
DEMAND SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 260 Single‐ Owned Market Active Adlt. Active Adlt. Active Active Assisted Memory2020‐2030 Family Multifamily Rate Affordable Subsidized MR‐Own MR‐Rental Adult‐Aff Adult‐Sub. Congregate Living CareNortheast SubmarketScandia 110 21 18 4 4 26 40 0 10 32 64 11Marine on St. Croix 30 12 8 3 3 0 20 0 7 16 33 11May Twp. 15300000000000293 33 26 7 7 26 60 0 17 48 97 22Stillwater SubmarketStillwater 110 74 85 44 53 66 19 41 0 0 162 42Stillwater Twp. 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Oak Park Heights 32 44 24 12 18 44 19 20 0 0 107 28Bayport 37 30 24 16 12 20 0 20 0 0 55 14Baytown Twp. 3400000000000221 148 133 72 83 130 38 81 0 0 324 84Mahtomedi SubmarketMahtomedi 6 8 6 0 5 25 15 0 0 0 65 0Grant 6 8 0 0 0 26 15 0 0 0 65 0Dellwood 3 0 0000000000Birchwood Village 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0White Bear Lake (pt.)0 0 0000000000Willernie 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Pine Springs 620400000000292064551300001300Southeast SubmarketLakeland Shores 100 0000000000West Lakeland Twp. 20 0 0 0 0 13 18 0 0 16 39 18Lakeland 8 5 0 0 0 13181112163919Lake St. Croix Beach 0 0 0000000000St. Mary's Point 0 0 0000000000Afton 20 10 13 3 3 13 22 10 12 16 40 19Denmark Twp. 250000000000083 15 13 3 3 39 58 21 24 48 118 56Cottage Grove SubmarketCottage Grove 969 540 123 55 50 77 63 0 0 39 148 42Newport 68 80 3020202024 0 0 207420St. Paul Park 93 83 3020202024 0 0 197421Grey Cloud Is. Twp. 1560126600000001,145 763 195 101 96 117 111 0 0 78 296 83Total 1,771 974 327 187 195 452 464 35 102 174 965 245* Senior Demand is as of 2030Source: Maxfield Research and Consulting LLCTABLE DMD‐13COMMUNITY DEMAND FOR AGGREGATE SUBMARKETS BY PRODUCT TYPE2020‐2030For‐Sale Rental Senior*
DEMAND SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 261
509
156
323
1,025
2,850
1,290
1,732
2,306
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000
For‐sale SF
For‐Sale MF
Rental Total
Senior Total
Washington County Housing Demand by Type
2016‐2020
East
West
597
195
347
1,291
4,906
2,661
2,439
3,293
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000
Single‐family
For‐Sale MF
Rental Total
Senior Total
Washington County Housing Demand by Type
2020‐2030
East
West
DEMAND SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 262
2,722
1,097
1,022
218
220
7,477
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000
GO ‐ MR
GO ‐ Aff
GO ‐ Subs.
Sr ‐ Subs.
Sr ‐ Aff.
Sr ‐ MR
Washington County General Occupancy Rental and Senior Demand
2016‐2030
Comparison between 2013 Housing Study and 2017 Housing Study
Table DMD‐14 provides a comparison between the demand calculations in the 2013 Housing
Study and the 2017 Housing Study. The 2013 general occupancy demand calculations include
the period from 2013 to 2016 which provides higher demand for the compared periods. Thus,
the following paragraphs focus on the 2020 to 2030 demand projections which can be com‐
pared directly.
There was demand for 4,380 single‐family and 3,145 multifamily fewer homes in the 2017
Housing Study than in the 2013 study from 2020 to 2030. This discrepancy is mainly due to
estimates and projections by the Metropolitan Council, which were adjusted to reflect low‐
er growth in Washington County due to the ramifications of the Recession and slowdown in
the housing market.
Rental demand projections were slightly lower in 2017 (roughly 1,300 fewer units).
Senior demand projections were also lower in 2017 (an estimated 817 fewer units), alt‐
hough demand for active adult owner, assisted living and memory care increased. Maxfield
Research accounted for the population and households age 65+ and applied capture and
penetration rates based on capture and penetration rates that we have developed over
time for the Twin Cities Metro Area.
DEMAND SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 263
2013 2017 2013 2017 2013 2017
Study Study Study Study Study Study No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct.
Single‐Family 10,303 3,359 9,879 5,503 20,182 8,862 ‐6,944 ‐67.4% ‐4,376 ‐44.3% ‐11,320 ‐56.1%
Multifamily 4,799 1,448 6,001 2,856 10,800 4,304 ‐3,351 ‐69.8% ‐3,145 ‐52.4% ‐6,496 ‐60.1%
Rental 3,828 2,055 4,080 2,786 7,908 4,841 ‐1,773 ‐46.3% ‐1,294 ‐31.7% ‐3,067 ‐38.8%
Market Rate 2,068 1,159 2,194 1,564 4,262 2,723 ‐909 ‐44.0%‐630 ‐28.7% ‐1,539 ‐36.1%
Affordable 874 465 935 631 1,809 1,096 ‐409 ‐46.8%‐304 ‐32.5% ‐713 ‐39.4%
Subsidized 886 431 951 591 1,837 1,022 ‐455 ‐51.4%‐360 ‐37.9% ‐815 ‐44.4%
Total 18,930 6,862 19,960 11,145 38,890 18,007 ‐12,068 ‐63.8% ‐8,815 ‐44.2% ‐20,883 ‐53.7%
Active Adult 2,018 1,304 2,663 1,767 4,681 3,071 ‐714 ‐35.4% ‐896 ‐33.6% ‐1,610 ‐34.4%
Subsidized 212 85 311 133 523 218 ‐‐ ‐‐0 0.0% ‐305 0.0%
Affordable 487 81 664 139 1,151 220 ‐406 ‐83.4% ‐525 ‐79.1% ‐931 ‐80.9%
Owner 455 527 580 667 1,035 1,194 72 15.8%87 15.0% 159 15.4%
Rental 864 611 1,108 828 1,972 1,439 ‐253 ‐29.3%‐280 ‐25.3% ‐533 ‐27.0%
Congregate 424 247 586 405 1,010 652 ‐177 ‐41.7%‐181 ‐30.9% ‐358 ‐35.4%
Assisted Living 1,307 1,451 1,734 1,845 3,041 3,296 144 11.0%111 6.4% 255 8.4%
Memory Care 215 329 322 567 537 896 114 53.0%245 76.1% 359 66.9%
Total 3,964 3,331 5,305 4,584 9,269 7,915 ‐633 ‐16.0% ‐721 ‐13.6% ‐1,354 ‐14.6%
Combined Total 22,894 10,193 25,265 15,729 48,159 25,922 ‐12,701 ‐55.5%‐9,536 ‐37.7% ‐22,237 ‐46.2%
* 2013 GO Demand was calculated over an extra 3 years when comparing to the 2017 demand .
Sources: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
GENERAL OCCUPANCY
SENIOR
TABLE DMD‐14
DIFFERENCE IN DEMAND FROM 2013 STUDY TO 2017 STUDY
WASHINGTON COUNTY
2017
Difference2020‐2030
2016‐2020
2016‐2020* 2016‐2030*
2020‐2030 2016‐2030
DEMAND SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 264
Northeast Recommendations
The Northeast submarket is expected to experience modest growth to 2030 and is predomi‐
nantly low‐density with some limited areas that could potentially accommodate medium‐
density units. An estimated 332 households are projected to be added between 2016 and
2020.
An estimated 84% of the general occupancy housing demand in the Northeast submarket
between 2016 and 2020 is projected to be for single‐family homes – or 159 of 190 total units.
Most new residents are anticipated to have higher incomes and would be in search of single‐
family homes. There have been discussions however, that association‐maintained housing
products units are needed for older adult and senior households that want to remain in their
local communities and are looking for smaller lots and a lower maintenance living situation.
Detached villas and twinhomes may be able to be accommodated in medium‐density areas.
Northeast Projected General Occupancy Demand, 2016 – 2020
Northeast Projected Senior Demand, 2020
Senior
Housing
224
Active Adult
88
Subsidized
14
Affordable
0
Owner
22
Rental
52
Service‐
Enhanced
136
Cong
40
AL
78
MC
18
Note: Because households are mobile and are willing to seek out various housing products in adjacent communi‐
ties, these demand figures may experience fluctuations.
DEMAND SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 265
For‐Sale Housing: To meet the projected single‐family home demand in the Northeast Sub‐
market to 2020, a supply of about 160 lots will be needed to allow for adequate consumer
choice. Like the Southeast Submarket, most of these lots will be created in several smaller,
large‐lot acreage developments. There are 62 vacant developed lots platted in the Northeast
submarket and no future lots available or planned, although there have been some general
discussions with developers that may bring proposed subdivisions forward. New lots may be
needed to meet potential demand to 2020 if growth occurs as projected.
Rental Housing: There is demand for 23 rental units, but development may be challenged by
high land costs and increasing construction costs. Assistance with development costs may be
needed if this type of product were to be developed in the area. Existing households seeking
rental housing are likely to consider other Washington County submarkets or may choose
alternate rental housing products, such as rented single‐family homes or rented owner‐
occupied townhomes.
Senior Housing: By 2020, there will be demand for 214 senior units. Most of this demand will
occur closer to 2020 as senior demand increases. Seniors in the Northeast Submarket will tend
to be older than those closer to the Twin Cities core when they make the transition into age‐
restricted housing. The greatest demand is anticipated to be for active adult rental and service‐
based units. Products that offer greater flexibility for older adults to age in place are likely to be
most attractive as are association‐maintained products where exterior upkeep and mainte‐
nance are performed by a third‐party.
DEMAND SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 266
Stillwater Recommendations
The Stillwater submarket has a limited supply of land for new development as much of the land
in Stillwater and Baytown Townships are guided for low‐density and large acreage. Thus, a
significant portion of the housing added will be in the municipalities of Stillwater, Oak Park
Heights and Bayport. Redevelopment sites made available to increase residential density can
assist in meeting demand.
The Stillwater submarket is projected to add 993 households between 2016 and 2020. Approx‐
imately 38% of the general occupancy housing demand is projected to be for single‐family
homes, 20% for owner‐occupied multifamily homes and 42% for rental units.
Stillwater Projected General Occupancy Demand, 2016 – 2020
Stillwater Projected Senior Demand, 2020
Senior
Housing
486
Active Adult
165
Subsidized
0
Affordable
49
Owner
109
Rental
7
Service‐
Enhanced
321
Cong
0
AL
245
MC
76
Note: Because households are mobile and are willing to seek out various housing products in adjacent communi‐
ties, these demand figures may experience fluctuations.
DEMAND SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 267
For‐Sale Housing: To meet the projected single‐family home demand in the Stillwater submar‐
ket to 2020, a supply of 255 lots will be needed to allow for adequate consumer choice. Cur‐
rently, the supply is 216 vacant developed lots with 121 future lots in existing subdivisions.
Therefore, some future lots would need to shift to the vacant developed lot inventory in the
short‐term to keep pace with demand. New single‐family lots and detached villa lots are
already underway in Stillwater and new single‐family lots are pending approval in Oak Park
Heights. Bayport has additional single‐family lots available in the Inspiration subdivision which
have received new approvals and are being remarketed.
Rental Housing: A new market rate rental development has not been built for over ten years
since Curve Crest Villas. There is sufficient demand for new market rate, affordable and subsi‐
dized, general occupancy rental housing and new rental units are needed in this submarket as
vacancies in this submarket were found to be exceptionally low.
Senior Housing: The Stillwater submarket has an abundant supply of senior housing with Villa
of Oak Park, Boutwell’s Landing, Oak Park Senior Living, and Croixdale, among others. These
buildings have been successful by drawing residents from a broad area and some of the facili‐
ties have already expanded in this submarket. We project demand from local seniors to con‐
tinue between 2016 and 2020 such that another 165 units of active adult and 321 units of
service‐enhanced housing will be needed. The greatest need is anticipated to be for market
rate (ownership and rental) active adult units. Assisted living demand is also identified as being
high, but surveys of existing properties in the Stillwater submarket revealed that prospects are
primarily seeking independent housing and preferring to add services as they need them.
DEMAND SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 268
Southeast Recommendations
The Southeast submarket is projected to add 255 households between 2016 and 2020. An
estimated 85% of the general occupancy demand will be for single‐family homes on low‐density
sites due to the current land use and zoning restrictions for communities that comprise this
submarket. Most new residents are anticipated to be higher‐income households in search of
single‐family homes.
Southeast Projected General Occupancy Demand, 2016 – 2020
Southeast Projected Senior Demand, 2020
Senior
Housing
315
Active Adult
120
Subsidized
20
Affordable
18
Owner
33
Rental
49
Service‐
Enhanced
195
Cong
41
AL
104
MC
50
Note: Because households are mobile and are willing to seek out various housing products in adjacent communi‐
ties, these demand figures may experience fluctuations.
DEMAND SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 269
For‐Sale Housing: The Southeast submarket currently has 34 vacant developed single‐family
lots; however; 95 lots are needed to meet the projected single‐family home demand. Like the
Northeast, most of these lots are likely to be created in several smaller, large‐lot developments.
There are 32 future lots in pending or proposed subdivisions. Thus, some additional lots may
needed to meet demand to 2020.
Rental Housing: Although there is demand for 19 rental units, it would be difficult to develop a
rental property due to economies of scale and zoning restrictions in most of the communities
that comprise the Southeast submarket. Much of the submarket communities have low‐
density zoning and do not have infrastructure that would be needed to support medium and
high density rental housing.
Senior Housing: By 2020, demand is projected for 315 senior units across all service levels.
Most of this demand is expected to be generated nearer 2020 when senior demand increases.
Currently, there are no senior housing options for local residents and those that want senior
housing would have to relocate outside of the submarket. The Southeast submarket could
potentially support a market rate active adult development and a service‐intensive senior
housing development by 2020, albeit somewhat smaller in size. Adult family homes may be an
alternate product to traditional large scale senior housing to may satisfy a portion of the
demand for seniors that need assisted living and/or memory care services in this submarket.
DEMAND SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 270
Forest Lake Recommendations
The Forest Lake submarket is poised to continue to grow as the urban fringe moves northward.
Forest Lake is projected to add 1,180 households between 2016 and 2020. Approximately 65%
of the general occupancy demand is projected to be for ownership housing and 35% for rental
housing.
Forest Lake Projected General Occupancy Demand, 2016 – 2020
General
Occupancy
973
For‐Sale
630
SF
441
Modest
132
Move‐Up
199
Executive
110
Multifamily
189
Modest
76
Move‐Up
113
Rental
343
MR
147
Affordable
95
Subsidized
101
Forest Lake Projected Senior Demand, 2020
Senior
Housing
349
Active Adult
173
Subsidized
0
Affordable
0
Owner
78
Rental
95
Service‐
Enhanced
176
Cong
65
AL
111
MC
0
Note: Because households are mobile and are willing to seek out various housing products in adjacent communi‐
ties, these demand figures may experience fluctuations.
DEMAND SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 271
For‐Sale Housing: Demand was calculated for 441 single‐family homes between 2016 and
2020. Of the total single‐family housing demand, we estimate that 30% will be for modest
homes (priced at or less than $350,000). First‐time homebuyers may be attracted to the Forest
Lake submarket as the price for a new home has been traditionally somewhat less than for
other submarkets in Washington County. Land pricing and construction cost escalation may
result in a portion of the demand for modest priced single‐family homes shifting to townhome
product and some of the upper end of the range for modest product may shift into the move‐
up segment. Forest Lake currently has a total of 164 vacant developed lots and 168 future lots
for a total of 332 lots. At an estimated annual average of demand of 110 single‐family homes,
then the 332 lots would last for three‐years, an adequate supply, with new lots needed as
vacant lots are absorbed. Applications for new developments are occurring and we estimate
that Forest Lake should be able to maintain an adequate supply of lots to meet future demand.
Rental Housing: Demand was calculated for 343 rental units between 2016 and 2020, of which
market rate accounts for 147 units, 95 affordable and 101 subsidized units. Half of the short‐
term demand for market rate general occupancy rental housing will be absorbed by Arbor
Ridge Apartments, which has 73 units and is expected to open Fall 2017. However, all of the
units at Arbor Ridge have been absorbed due to significant pent‐up demand. Therefore,
additional market rate rental units are needed to support the calculated demand.
There are two proposed market rate rental developments in the pipeline that would absorb
demand through 2020. Gateway Green is planned to start construction Spring 2018 and would
have 82 units. The Gaughan Companies has proposed a 99‐unit development on the old city
hall location and is in the concept planning stage.
With projected job growth in the area and extremely low vacancies in existing rental buildings,
we find that a new affordable rental development could also be supported.
Senior Housing: Cherrywood Pointe was completed in 2015 which added 70 congre‐
gate/assisted living units and 22 memory care units. Demand remains for additional congre‐
gate and assisted living housing in Forest Lake in addition to active adult ownership and rental.
DEMAND SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 272
Hugo Recommendations
Hugo had strong growth in the early 2000s during the housing boom. However, new construc‐
tion drastically slowed during the Great Recession and Hugo is expecting slower growth to 2020
than originally projected. Hugo has ample land availability, but pricing for new for‐sale housing
products continues to rival that of other submarkets. Additional land remaining in Victor
Gardens may be re‐platted for new single‐family homes at the mid‐ to upper $300,000s or
association‐maintained product.
Hugo Projected General Occupancy Demand, 2016 – 2020
Hugo Projected Senior Demand, 2020
Senior
Housing
138
Active Adult
81
Subsidized
0
Affordable
0
Owner
20
Rental
61
Service‐
Enhanced
57
Cong
15
AL
34
MC
8
Note: Because households are mobile and are willing to seek out various housing products in adjacent communi‐
ties, these demand figures may experience fluctuations.
DEMAND SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 273
For‐Sale Housing: Hugo has 137 vacant developed and 20 future single‐family lots at existing
subdivisions. In addition, there are 118 vacant developed townhome lots. Projected demand
for owned housing in Hugo to 2020 is estimated to be greater than the average number of
permits issued annually over the past five years. In 2016, single‐family permits issued rose
substantially, potentially signaling that the market is responding to increased demand for
housing in the community. If construction and absorption continue to remain strong, then
additional single‐family and multifamily owned lots will be needed to ensure a sufficient supply
to meet the projected demand.
Rental Housing: Hugo has very few rental units. In the short‐term, demand for for‐sale prod‐
uct will exceed demand for rental product. As the area continues to grow however, rental
demand will increase. We find support for a new market rate rental building with up to 98
units by 2020.
Senior Housing: Keystone Place at LaValle Fields opened in 2016 with 100 units, a mix of
independent living, assisted living and memory care. There is one other senior property, a 24‐
unit assisted living/memory care facility and a 28‐unit affordable/subsidized senior facility.
Demand calculations identified limited additional demand for service‐enhanced units in the
short‐term, but additional demand may be derived from empty‐nesters that would prefer to
have their parents closer to them. This could increase base demand over the next five to ten
years as the baby boom group ages.
DEMAND SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 274
Mahtomedi Recommendations
The Mahtomedi submarket has land available in Grant; however, household growth in the
submarket is expected to remain modest as most of the land in Grant is zoned for low‐density
housing. In‐fill and redevelopment in Mahtomedi has increased the number of housing units in
the community, primarily targeted to traditional rental and senior housing. The Mahtomedi
submarket is projected to increase by 161 households to 2020, the lowest growth rate in the
county. All of the growth is expected to occur in the 65+ population.
Mahtomedi Projected General Occupancy Demand, 2016 – 2020
Mahtomedi Projected Senior Demand, 2020
Senior
Housing
192
Active Adult
68
Subsidized
0
Affordable
0
Owner
47
Rental
21
Service‐
Enhanced
124
Cong
0
AL
124
MC
0
Note: Because households are mobile and are willing to seek out various housing products in adjacent communi‐
ties, these demand figures may experience fluctuations.
DEMAND SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 275
For‐Sale Housing: The Mahtomedi submarket is estimated to need a supply of 50 lots to
maintain adequate consumer choice based on recent building permit trends. We anticipate
that the City of Mahtomedi will likely experience some tear‐downs of existing single‐family
homes or potential lot splits. The City of Grant will likely accommodate most of the new single‐
family development in this submarket. There are six vacant developed lots in the submarket. If
projected demand is realized, a three‐year supply of an estimated 70 lots (mix of single‐family
and owned multifamily) would be needed to meet the short‐term demand (2016‐2020) pro‐
jected for the submarket.
Rental Housing: Demand was calculated for 12 units in the Mahtomedi submarket. However,
redevelopment of existing commercial sites in Mahtomedi could result in the development of a
modest size rental building (up to about 36 units). Additional rental demand from local house‐
holds unable to be satisfied in the community could be accommodated by other nearby com‐
munities, such as Oakdale. If land is made available in Mahtomedi through redevelopment, the
community could likely capture demand from neighboring communities.
Senior Housing: Demand for congregate and memory care in the submarket is being satisfied.
Demand remains high for additional assisted living units, although a portion of assisted living
demand may be able to be satisfied through independent living that would offer residents
services a‐la‐carte. However, the development of senior housing with the required features to
offer services to residents typically necessitates a guaranteed rate structure to support the
delivery of meals, housekeeping, laundry and personal care. Demand also exists for market
rate active adult for‐sale and rental housing.
The City of Mahtomedi and the Washington County CDA partnered on the affordable senior
housing development “Piccadilly Square.” The development contains 79 units, affordable to
senior households at or below 60% AMI. This development has satisfied the short‐term de‐
mand for affordable senior rental housing in the submarket.
DEMAND SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 276
Oakdale Recommendations
Household growth in Oakdale will be driven by employment growth and the City’s close proxim‐
ity to the Twin Cities core. Demand will continue for single family homes in Oakdale, but the
community’s land supply to support low‐density housing is limited. Thus, most new housing
added in the community is likely to be multifamily, which would include medium‐density
townhomes or higher‐density rental and senior housing. We estimate that between 2016 and
2020, 23% of the demand will be for for‐sale multifamily, 72% for rental and 6% for single‐
family.
Oakdale Projected General Occupancy Demand, 2016 – 2020
Oakdale Projected Senior Demand, 2020
Senior
Housing
225
Active Adult
29
Subsidized
0
Affordable
0
Owner
29
Rental
0
Service‐
Enhanced
196
Cong
22
AL
174
MC
0
Note: Because households are mobile and are willing to seek out various housing products in adjacent communi‐
ties, these demand figures may experience fluctuations.
DEMAND SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 277
For‐Sale Housing: Available land in Oakdale for new residential development is limited.
Development of additional single‐family and owned multifamily homes are expected to occur
almost exclusively through redevelopment and infill. There are no vacant developed single‐
family lots in Oakdale and only four vacant developed multifamily owned lots. There are no
applications for new owned residential construction in the pipeline at this time.
Rental Housing: We calculated demand for 102 market rate, 82 affordable and 71 subsidized
rental units in Oakdale from 2016 to 2020. Due to the community’s close proximity to jobs and
the low vacancy rate among existing rental developments, market rate and affordable units
could be developed in the next few years to meeting growing rental demand in Oakdale.
Senior Housing: The Waters of Oakdale (opened 2014) satisfied much of the demand for
service based senior housing although demand was identified for assisted living units. A por‐
tion of the demand for assisted living senior housing is likely to be satisfied through the devel‐
opment of independent living units that would provide services to residents a‐la‐carte. Howev‐
er, the development of senior housing with the required features to offer services to residents
typically necessitates a guaranteed rate structure to support the delivery of meals, housekeep‐
ing, laundry and personal care. New independent living units attached to continuum of care
developments are typically at a higher rate structure to support access to services such as
meals, housekeeping, emergency response and personal care options.
DEMAND SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 278
Lake Elmo Recommendations
In 2005, the Metropolitan Council and the City of Lake Elmo signed a memorandum of under‐
standing requiring the Lake Elmo comprehensive plan to be consistent with the Metropolitan
Council’s regional system plans. The understanding requires Lake Elmo to accept its share of
the region’s projected growth. Lake Elmo is projected to add 1,040 households between 2016
and 2020. An estimated 85% of the general occupancy for‐sale housing demand is anticipated
to be for single‐family homes.
Lake Elmo Projected General Occupancy Demand, 2016 – 2020
Lake Elmo Projected Senior Demand, 2020
Senior
Housing
195
Active Adult
99
Subsidized
15
Affordable
14
Owner
28
Rental
42
Service‐
Enhanced
96
Cong
8
AL
64
MC
24
Note: Because households are mobile and are willing to seek out various housing products in adjacent communi‐
ties, these demand figures may experience fluctuations.
DEMAND SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS
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For‐Sale Housing: Based on an average demand in the short‐term of 116 owned housing units,
Lake Elmo would need a lot supply of approximately 300 to 320 lots (primarily single‐family
lots) to allow adequate consumer choice, enabling it to meet its projected demand for single‐
family and owned multifamily homes. Lake Elmo currently has 234 vacant developed lots and
1,325 future lots in existing and pending subdivisions. Demand for new homes is accelerating in
Lake Elmo, but platting of new lots has also increased. At this time, applications for new
subdivisions are keeping pace or even modestly exceeding projected demand.
Rental Housing: Lake Elmo has a limited supply of rental housing; however, as the employment
base continues to grow, demand for rental housing will increase. Lake Elmo could support a
market rate rental property with between 80 and 100 units, but we recommend that it be built
later this decade.
Senior Housing: There are no senior housing developments in Lake Elmo. There have been
several speculative developments but nothing has moved forward. Currently, Frisbie Architects
has proposed Arbor Glen, a continuum of care campus with a total of 84 units (31 IL, 29 AL, and
24 MC) and other developers are looking at Lake Elmo for active adult products. Demand will
continue to grow to 2030 when the local senior population increases to higher numbers.
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Woodbury Recommendations
Woodbury is the largest submarket in the county and is projected to maintain the largest
population and household base to 2030. In addition to housing and population, Woodbury also
has the largest employment base in Washington County. Demand will be driven by the expand‐
ing local employment base as well as the City’s close proximity to job centers in the Twin Cities
core. Woodbury also has an ample supply of land on its east side available for new housing and
the southwest sector of the City is also expanding residentially.
Woodbury Projected General Occupancy Demand, 2016 – 2020
Woodbury Projected Senior Demand, 2020
Senior
Housing
659
Active Adult
306
Subsidized
36
Affordable
0
Owner
65
Rental
205
Service‐
Enhanced
353
Cong
5
AL
263
MC
85
Note: Because households are mobile and are willing to seek out various housing products in adjacent communi‐
ties, these demand figures may experience fluctuations.
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For‐Sale Housing: To meet the projected single‐family home demand, estimated at 300 units
annually over the next four years, Woodbury would need an estimated supply of 900 lots to
allow adequate consumer choice. Currently, Woodbury has 302 vacant developed lots and 635
future lots in existing and pending developments. Additional subdivsions are in the application
and staff review process and based on current activity, it appears that Woodbury is on track to
keep pace with demand for future ownership lots.
Rental Housing: There is demand for additional rental units in Woodbury and rents in Wood‐
bury are among the highest in Washington County. About 74% of the general occupancy rental
demand will be for market rate units. In addition to high rents, the vacancy rate in Woodbury
was below market equilibrium at 2.6% as of 4th Quarter 2016, indicating some pent‐up demand
for rental units. Some of the newest rental properties however, are experiencing a temporary
softness in occupancies.
Senior Housing: The majority of the senior housing developments in Woodbury are newer
(built after 2000). However, demand for senior housing in Woodbury is projected to continue
to grow to 2020. There is sufficient demand to support additional senior housing units in
Woodbury. Demand was identified for 306 active adult (subsidized and market rate) units and
353 service‐enhanced units by 2020 accounting for the new properties that recently opened
and/or are under construction.
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Cottage Grove Recommendations
Cottage Grove’s close proximity to jobs in Woodbury, combined with access to the remainder
of the Twin Cities enhances demand for new housing in Cottage Grove and the surrounding
adjacent communities of Newport and St. Paul Park. We project the Cottage Grove submarket
will add about 670 owner from 2016 to 2020.
Cottage Grove Projected General Occupancy Demand, 2016 – 2020
Cottage Grove Projected Senior Demand, 2020
Senior
Housing
550
Active Adult
175
Subsidized
0
Affordable
0
Owner
96
Rental
79
Service‐
Enhanced
375
Cong
52
AL
254
MC
69
Note: Because households are mobile and are willing to seek out various housing products in adjacent communi‐
ties, these demand figures may experience fluctuations.
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MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 283
For‐Sale Housing: Between 2016 and 2020, we project demand for roughly 600 single‐family
homes or 65% of the general occupancy housing demand and 322 owned multifamily units.
The Cottage Grove submarket has a lot supply of 139 vacant developed lots and 675 future lots
and 63 vacant developed and future owned multifamily lots. Virtually all of these are in the City
of Cottage Grove. If demand occurs as projected, then additional lots would be needed to
accommodate demand and maintain a three‐year lot supply.
Rental Housing: There is demand for 233 rental units in the Cottage Grove submarket. Be‐
cause of Cottage Grove’s close proximity to higher paying jobs, we find that a significant portion
of rental demand will be for market rate units (116 units by 2020). In addition, a rental devel‐
opment has not been built since Hinton Heights in 1993. A new market rate rental building
would provide contemporary finishes and amenities. There is also significant pent‐up demand
for rental housing in Newport and St. Paul Park. Existing rental housing is older, primarily
constructed in the 1960s and 1970s with rents that are very affordable. It may be difficult to
develop new rental housing in these smaller communities without a public‐private partnership.
Small buildings with eight or fewer units may be able to be developed without assistance,
providing contemporary features and amenities to satisfy some of the current demand.
Senior Housing: The newest senior property is Norris Square which was built in 2010 and has
86 congregate, 21 assisted living, and 18 memory care units. We find that Cottage Grove could
also support additional senior units in the next few years. The greatest demand is for active
adult rental and ownership units and assisted living units (up to 254 units). Norris Square is in
the process of adding more independent living units to its existing campus, thereby satisfying
some of the demand for active adult rentals as the new units are anticipated to be very low
service.
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Definitions
Absorption Period – The period of time necessary for newly constructed or renovated proper‐
ties to achieve the stabilized level of occupancy. The absorption period begins when the first
certificate of occupancy is issued and ends when the last unit to reach the stabilized level of
occupancy has signed a lease.
Absorption Rate – The average number of units rented each month during the absorption
period.
Active adult (or independent living without services available) – Active Adult properties are
similar to a general‐occupancy apartment building, in that they offer virtually no services but
have age‐restrictions (typically 55 or 62 or older). Organized activities and occasionally a
transportation program are usually all that are available at these properties. Because of the
lack of services, active adult properties typically do not command the rent premiums of more
service‐enriched senior housing.
Adjusted Gross Income “AGI” – Income from taxable sources (including wages, interest, capital
gains, income from retirement accounts, etc.) adjusted to account for specific deductions (i.e.
contributions to retirement accounts, unreimbursed business and medical expenses, alimony,
etc.).
Affordable housing – The general definition of affordability is for a household to pay no more
than 30% of their income for housing. For purposes of this study we define affordable housing
that is income‐restricted to households earning at or below 80% AMI, though individual proper‐
ties can have income‐restrictions set at 40%, 50%, 60% or 80% AMI. Rent is not based on
income but instead is a contract amount that is affordable to households within the specific
income restriction segment. It is essentially housing affordable to low or very low‐income
tenants.
Amenity – Tangible or intangible benefits offered to a tenant in the form of common area
amenities or in‐unit amenities. Typical in‐unit amenities include dishwashers, washer/dryers,
walk‐in showers and closets and upgraded kitchen finishes. Typical common area amenities
include detached or attached garage parking, community room, fitness center and an outdoor
patio or grill/picnic area.
Area Median Income “AMI” – AMI is the midpoint in the income distribution within a specific
geographic area. By definition, 50% of households earn less than the median income and 50%
earn more. The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) calculates AMI
annually and adjustments are made for family size.
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Assisted Living – Assisted Living properties come in a variety of forms, but the target market for
most is generally the same: very frail seniors, typically age 80 or older (but can be much young‐
er, depending on their particular health situation), who are in need of extensive support ser‐
vices and personal care assistance. Absent an assisted living option, these seniors would
otherwise need to move to a nursing facility. At a minimum, assisted living properties include
two meals per day and weekly housekeeping in the monthly fee, with the availability of a third
meal and personal care (either included in the monthly fee or for an additional cost). Assisted
living properties also have either staff on duty 24 hours per day or at least 24‐hour emergency
response.
Building Permit – Building permits track housing starts and the number of housing units author‐
ized to be built by the local governing authority. Most jurisdictions require building permits for
new construction, major renovations, as well as other building improvements. Building permits
ensure that all the work meets applicable building and safety rules and is typically required to
be completed by a licensed professional. Once the building is complete and meets the inspec‐
tor’s satisfaction, the jurisdiction will issue a “CO” or “Certificate of Occupancy.” Building
permits are a key barometer for the health of the housing market and are often a leading
indicator in the rest of the economy as it has a major impact on consumer spending.
Capture Rate – The percentage of age, size, and income‐qualified renter households in a given
area or “Market Area” that the property must capture to fill the units. The capture rate is
calculated by dividing the total number of units at the property by the total number of age, size
and income‐qualified renter households in the designated area.
Comparable Property – A property that is representative of the rental housing choices of the
designated area or “Market Area” that is similar in construction, size, amenities, location and/or
age.
Concession – Discount or incentives given to a prospective tenant to induce signature of a
lease. Concessions typically are in the form of reduced rent or free rent for a specific lease
term, or free amenities, which are normally charged separately, such as parking.
Congregate (or independent living with services available) – Congregate properties offer
support services such as meals and/or housekeeping, either on an optional basis or a limited
amount included in the rents. These properties typically dedicate a larger share of the overall
building area to common areas, in part, because the units are smaller than in adult housing and
in part to encourage socialization among residents. Congregate properties attract a slightly
older target market than adult housing, typically seniors age 75 or older. Rents are also above
those of the active adult buildings, even excluding the services.
Contract Rent – The actual monthly rent payable by the tenant, including any rent subsidy paid
on behalf of the tenant, to the owner, inclusive of all terms of the lease.
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Demand – The total number of households that would potentially move into a proposed new or
renovated housing project. These households must be of appropriate age, income, tenure and
size for a specific proposed development. Components vary and can include, but are not
limited to: turnover, people living in substandard conditions, rent over‐burdened households,
income‐qualified households and age of householder. Demand is project specific.
Density – Number of units in a given area. Density is typically measured in dwelling units (DU)
per acre – the larger the number of units permitted per acre the higher the density; the fewer
units permitted results in lower density. Density is often presented in a gross and net format:
Gross Density – The number of dwelling units per acre based on the gross site acreage.
Gross Density = Total residential units/total development area
Net Density ‐ The number of dwelling units per acre located on the site, but excludes
public right‐of‐ways (ROW) such as streets, alleys, easements, open spaces, etc.
Net Density = Total residential units/total residential land area (excluding ROWs)
Detached housing – a freestanding dwelling unit, most often single‐family homes, situated on
its own lot.
Effective Rents – Contract rent less applicable concessions.
Elderly or Senior Housing – Housing where all the units in the property are restricted for
occupancy by persons age 62 years or better, or at least 80% of the units in each building are
restricted for occupancy by households where at least one household member is 55 years of
age or better and the housing is designed with amenities, facilities and services to meet the
needs of senior citizens.
Extremely low‐income – person or household with incomes below 30% of Area Median In‐
come, adjusted for respective household size.
Fair Market Rent – Estimates established by HUD of the Gross Rents needed to obtain modest
rental units in acceptable conditions in a specific geographic area. The amount of rental income
a given property would command if it were open for leasing at any given moment and/or the
amount derived based on market conditions that is needed to pay gross monthly rent at
modest rental housing in a given area. This figure is used as a basis for determining the pay‐
ment standard amount used to calculate the maximum monthly subsidy for families on at
financially assisted housing.
Foreclosure – A legal process in which a lender or financial institute attempts to recover the
balance of a loan from a borrower who has stopped making payments to the lender by using
the sale of the house as collateral for the loan.
Gross Rent – The monthly housing cost to a tenant which equals the Contract Rent provided for
in the lease, plus the estimated cost of all utilities paid by tenants.
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Household – All persons who occupy a housing unit, including occupants of a single‐family, one
person living alone, two or more families living together, or any other group of related or
unrelated persons who share living arrangements.
Household Trends – Changes in the number of households for any particular areas over a
measurable period of time, which is a function of hew households formations, changes in
average household size, and met migration.
Housing Choice Voucher Program – The federal government's major program for assisting very
low‐income families, the elderly, and the disabled to afford decent, safe, and sanitary housing
in the private market. A family that is issued a housing voucher is responsible for finding a
suitable housing unit of the family's choice where the owner agrees to rent under the program.
Housing choice vouchers are administered locally by public housing agencies. They receive
federal funds from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) to adminis‐
ter the voucher program. A housing subsidy is paid to the landlord directly by the public
housing agency on behalf of the participating family. The family then pays the difference
between the actual rent charged by the landlord and the amount subsidized by the program.
Housing unit – House, apartment, mobile home, or group of rooms used as a separate living
quarters by a single household.
HUD Project‐Based Section 8 – A federal government program that provides rental housing for
very low‐income families, the elderly, and the disabled in privately owned and managed rental
units. The owner reserves some or all of the units in a building in return for a Federal govern‐
ment guarantee to make up the difference between the tenant's contribution and the rent. A
tenant who leaves a subsidized project will lose access to the project‐based subsidy.
HUD Section 202 Program – Federal program that provides direct capital assistance and operat‐
ing or rental assistance to finance housing designed for occupancy by elder household who
have incomes not exceeding 50% of Area Median Income.
HUD Section 811 Program – Federal program that provides direct capital assistance and operat‐
ing or rental assistance to finance housing designed for occupancy of persons with disabilities
who have incomes not exceeding 50% Area Median Income.
HUD Section 236 Program – Federal program that provides interest reduction payments for
loans which finance housing targeted to households with income not exceeding 80% Area
Median Income who pay rent equal to the greater or market rate or 30% of their adjusted
income.
Income limits – Maximum households income by a designed geographic area, adjusted for
household size and expressed as a percentage of the Area Median Income, for the purpose of
establishing an upper limit for eligibility for a specific housing program. See Income‐
qualifications.
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Inflow/Outflow – The Inflow/Outflow Analysis generates results showing the count and charac‐
teristics of worker flows in to, out of, and within the defined geographic area.
Low‐Income – Person or household with gross household incomes below 80% of Area Median
Income, adjusted for household size.
Low‐Income Housing Tax Credit – A program aimed to generate equity for investment in
affordable rental housing authorized pursuant to Section 42 of the Internal Revenue Code. The
program requires that a certain percentage of units built be restricted for occupancy to house‐
holds earning 60% or less of Area Median Income, and rents on these units be restricted
accordingly.
Market analysis – The study of real estate market conditions for a specific type of property,
geographic area or proposed (re)development.
Market rent – The rent that an apartment, without rent or income restrictions or rent subsi‐
dies, would command in a given area or “Market Area” considering its location, features and
amenities.
Market study – A comprehensive study of a specific proposal including a review of the housing
market in a defined market or geography. Project specific market studies are often used by
developers, property managers or government entities to determine the appropriateness of a
proposed development, whereas market specific market studies are used to determine what
house needs, if any, existing within a specific geography.
Market rate rental housing – Housing that does not have any income‐restrictions. Some
properties will have income guidelines, which are minimum annual incomes required in order
to reside at the property.
Median Rent/Home Price – The median refers to the price point where half of the rents/homes
are priced above the point, and half are priced below it. The median is a more accurate gauge
of housing costs as averages tend to skew prices at the high and low end of the market.
Memory Care – Memory Care properties, designed specifically for persons suffering from
Alzheimer’s disease or other dementias, is one of the newest trends in senior housing. Proper‐
ties consist mostly of suite‐style or studio units or occasionally one‐bedroom apartment‐style
units, and large amounts of communal areas for activities and programming. In addition, staff
typically undergoes specialized training in the care of this population. Because of the greater
amount of individualized personal care required by residents, staffing ratios are much higher
than traditional assisted living and thus, the costs of care are also higher. Unlike conventional
assisted living, however, which deals almost exclusively with widows or widowers, a higher
proportion of persons afflicted with Alzheimer’s disease are in two‐person households. That
means the decision to move a spouse into a memory care facility involves the caregiver’s
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concern of incurring the costs of health care at a special facility while continuing to maintain
their home.
Migration – The movement of households and/or people into or out of an area.
Mixed‐income property – An apartment property contained either both income‐restricted and
unrestricted units or units restricted at two or more income limits.
Mobility – The ease at which people move from one location to another.
Moderate Income – Person or household with gross household income between 80% and 120%
of the Area Median Income, adjusted for household size.
Multifamily – Properties and structures that contain more than two housing units.
Naturally Occurring Affordable Housing – Although affordable housing is typically associated
with an income‐restricted property, there are other housing units in communities that indirect‐
ly provide affordable housing. Housing units that were not developed or designated with
income guidelines (i.e. assisted) yet are more affordable than other units in a community are
considered “naturally‐occurring” or “unsubsidized affordable” units. This rental supply is
available through the private market, versus assisted housing programs through various gov‐
ernmental agencies. Property values on these units are lower based on a combination of
factors, such as: age of structure/housing stock, location, condition, size, functionally obsolete,
school district, etc.
Net Income – Income earned after payroll withholdings such as state and federal income taxes,
social security, as well as retirement savings and health insurance.
Net Worth – The difference between assets and liabilities, or the total value of assets after the
debt is subtracted.
Pent‐up demand – A market in which there is a scarcity of supply and as such, vacancy rates are
very low or non‐existent.
Population – All people living in a geographic area.
Population Density – The population of an area divided by the number of square miles of land
area.
Population Trends – Changes in population levels for a particular geographic area over a
specific period of time – a function of the level of births, deaths, and in/out migration.
Project‐Based rent assistance – Rental assistance from any source that is allocated to the
property or a specific number of units in the property and is available to each income eligible
tenant of the property or an assisted unit.
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Redevelopment – The redesign, rehabilitation or expansion of existing properties.
Rent burden – gross rent divided by adjusted monthly household income.
Restricted rent – The rent charged under the restriction of a specific housing program or
subsidy.
Saturation – The point at which there is no longer demand to support additional market rate,
affordable/subsidized, rental, for‐sale, or senior housing units. Saturation usually refers to a
particular segment of a specific market.
Senior Housing – The term “senior housing” refers to any housing development that is restrict‐
ed to people age 55 or older. Today, senior housing includes an entire spectrum of housing
alternatives. Maxfield Research Inc. classifies senior housing into four categories based on the
level of support services. The four categories are: Active Adult, Congregate, Assisted Living and
Memory Care.
Short Sale – A sale of real estate in which the net proceeds from selling the property do not
cover the sellers’ mortgage obligations. The difference is forgiven by the lender, or other
arrangements are made with the lender to settle the remainder of the debt.
Single‐family home – A dwelling unit, either attached or detached, designed for use by one
household and with direct street access. It does not share heating facilities or other essential
electrical, mechanical or building facilities with another dwelling.
Stabilized level of occupancy – The underwritten or actual number of occupied units that a
property is expected to maintain after the initial lease‐up period.
Subsidized housing – Housing that is income‐restricted to households earning at or below 30%
AMI. Rent is generally based on income, with the household contributing 30% of their adjusted
gross income toward rent. Also referred to as extremely low income housing.
Subsidy – Monthly income received by a tenant or by an owner on behalf of a tenant to pay the
difference between the apartment’s contract/market rate rent and the amount paid by the
tenant toward rent.
Substandard conditions – Housing conditions that are conventionally considered unacceptable
and can be defined in terms of lacking plumbing facilities, one or more major mechanical or
electrical system malfunctions, or overcrowded conditions.
Target population – The market segment or segments of the given population a development
would appeal or cater to.
Tenant – One who rents real property from another individual or rental company.
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Tenant‐paid utilities – The cost of utilities, excluding cable, telephone, or internet necessary for
the habitation of a dwelling unit, which are paid by said tenant.
Tenure – The distinction between owner‐occupied and renter‐occupied housing units.
Turnover – A measure of movement of residents into and out of a geographic location.
Turnover period – An estimate of the number of housing units in a geographic location as a
percentage of the total house units that will likely change occupants in any one year.
Unrestricted units – Units that are not subject to any income or rent restrictions.
Vacancy period – The amount of time an apartment remains vacant and is available on the
market for rent.
Workforce housing – Housing that is income‐restricted to households earning between 80%
and 120% AMI. Also referred to as moderate‐income housing.
Zoning – Classification and regulation of land use by local governments according to use cate‐
gories (zones); often also includes density designations and limitations.